I was wondering what is the your opinions on who will be the first to Mars and beyond?This is my personal opinion but I think that NASA will probably be first to reach Mars (landing is a completely different subject) with SpaceX following close behind taking over operations while NASA continues on.
Like we are seeing with LEO operations currently.The trend I see with these 2 space 'competitors' (doesn't seem like the right word for them but I can't think of a better one) is that SpaceX keeps advancing there operations and Congress then pushes NASA to stay ahead pushing them forward like the NASA authorization act of 2010 with SLS (at least that's how I see it).
So I predict that NASA will pave the way while SpaceX follows close behind.What are your thoughts?
Quote from: Caleb Cattuzzo on 12/01/2017 08:35 pmI was wondering what is the your opinions on who will be the first to Mars and beyond?This is my personal opinion but I think that NASA will probably be first to reach Mars (landing is a completely different subject) with SpaceX following close behind taking over operations while NASA continues on.The President (whoever that may be at the time) runs NASA, so what NASA wants to do is a reflection of what the current President wants to do. And the current President has no interest in going to Mars.
In a dramatic call from the White House with a pair of astronauts at the International Space Station, Trump urged NASA to speed up its exploration timeline to get humans on Mars "at worst, during my second term."
“We will return NASA astronauts to the Moon — not only to leave behind footprints and flags, but to build the foundation, we need to send Americans to Mars and beyond,”
(Sec. 412) The key U.S. objectives for human expansion into space shall include achieving human exploration of Mars and beyond through the prioritization of those technologies and capabilities best suited for such a mission in accordance with the stepping stone approach to exploration specified in federal law.(Sec. 413) NASA shall manage human space flight programs, including the Space Launch System (SLS) and the Orion multipurpose crew vehicle, to enable humans to explore Mars and other space destinations.
Quote“We will return NASA astronauts to the Moon — not only to leave behind footprints and flags, but to build the foundation, we need to send Americans to Mars and beyond,”
Quote(Sec. 412) The key U.S. objectives for human expansion into space shall include achieving human exploration of Mars and beyond through the prioritization of those technologies and capabilities best suited for such a mission in accordance with the stepping stone approach to exploration specified in federal law.(Sec. 413) NASA shall manage human space flight programs, including the Space Launch System (SLS) and the Orion multipurpose crew vehicle, to enable humans to explore Mars and other space destinations.https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/442The NASA authorization Act of 2017 was signed by the President in March of this year.
Quote from: ncb1397 on 12/01/2017 09:14 pmQuote“We will return NASA astronauts to the Moon — not only to leave behind footprints and flags, but to build the foundation, we need to send Americans to Mars and beyond,”You just bolstered my argument - the President wants to go to our Moon first, not to Mars.QuoteQuote(Sec. 412) The key U.S. objectives for human expansion into space shall include achieving human exploration of Mars and beyond through the prioritization of those technologies and capabilities best suited for such a mission in accordance with the stepping stone approach to exploration specified in federal law.(Sec. 413) NASA shall manage human space flight programs, including the Space Launch System (SLS) and the Orion multipurpose crew vehicle, to enable humans to explore Mars and other space destinations.https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/442The NASA authorization Act of 2017 was signed by the President in March of this year.As we all know, such statements are not necessarily related to reality. Especially when no money has yet to be committed.So even if NASA gets tasked with going to our Moon, SpaceX will be driving directly for Mars. Which again bolsters my argument that SpaceX will get to Mars well before NASA - unless NASA buys a ticket on a BFS...
If you look at the major developments SpaceX has actually done up to now, they've generally had an anchor customer (e.g. F9 and Dragon development got serious when there was NASA commitment.) Ideas that don't attract such a customer (hello Red Dragon, Dragon lab...) tend to get discarded or indefinitely postponed.I predict this pattern will continue.
They aren't going strait to mars. The next mission on their manifest is LEO cargo.
Quote from: hop on 12/03/2017 07:18 pmIf you look at the major developments SpaceX has actually done up to now, they've generally had an anchor customer (e.g. F9 and Dragon development got serious when there was NASA commitment.) Ideas that don't attract such a customer (hello Red Dragon, Dragon lab...) tend to get discarded or indefinitely postponed.I predict this pattern will continue.And it is obvious why. The U.S. government is on the hook to put something like $10 billion into SpaceX(past and on contract). With that ~$10 billion, they will have done maybe ~10 satellite flights, put ~60 mT of cargo into LEO and transported a couple of dozen astronauts into LEO. That is half of Elon's net worth and they aren't anywhere close to Mars with that amount of cash infusion. Elon can't fund it himself(yet).
And it is obvious why. The U.S. government is on the hook to put something like $10 billion into SpaceX(past and on contract). With that ~$10 billion, they will have done maybe ~10 satellite flights, put ~60 mT of cargo into LEO and transported a couple of dozen astronauts into LEO.
That is half of Elon's net worth and they aren't anywhere close to Mars with that amount of cash infusion. Elon can't fund it himself(yet).
Quote from: ncb1397 on 12/03/2017 07:27 pmAnd it is obvious why. The U.S. government is on the hook to put something like $10 billion into SpaceX(past and on contract). With that ~$10 billion, they will have done maybe ~10 satellite flights, put ~60 mT of cargo into LEO and transported a couple of dozen astronauts into LEO. They will have done much much more than that, landing and reuse a first stage is just for starters, a significant amount of the money will also go to BFR.QuoteThat is half of Elon's net worth and they aren't anywhere close to Mars with that amount of cash infusion. Elon can't fund it himself(yet).Actually they got pretty close to a robotic mission that can land 1t of useful payload on Mars. As it is, they still have a rocket that can push 16t through TMI, I wouldn't call that "nowhere close to Mars".
Quote from: su27k on 12/04/2017 02:06 amActually they got pretty close to a robotic mission that can land 1t of useful payload on Mars. As it is, they still have a rocket that can push 16t through TMI, I wouldn't call that "nowhere close to Mars".This thread assumed "get to Mars" meant with humans. It doesn't make sense any other way. If it meant with a robotic lander, NASA would have to slip Mars Insight 4 years and Mars 2020 2 years (not to mention they were on the surface in the 70s) . I was just following the convention of this discussion.
Actually they got pretty close to a robotic mission that can land 1t of useful payload on Mars. As it is, they still have a rocket that can push 16t through TMI, I wouldn't call that "nowhere close to Mars".