Quote from: macpacheco on 05/09/2017 03:09 pmExcept Elon Musk has a solid track record of caring more about growth than profit.If he had unlimited funds he could do this, but he doesn't. he needs to strike a happy balance between growth and profit to ensure the companies survival, but also to ensure he stays in charge (i.e. he cannot risk a float to gain funding)
Except Elon Musk has a solid track record of caring more about growth than profit.
Quote from: JamesH65 on 05/09/2017 04:22 pmQuote from: macpacheco on 05/09/2017 03:09 pmExcept Elon Musk has a solid track record of caring more about growth than profit.If he had unlimited funds he could do this, but he doesn't. he needs to strike a happy balance between growth and profit to ensure the companies survival, but also to ensure he stays in charge (i.e. he cannot risk a float to gain funding)All he needs is free cashflow. Profit is accounting event which can be adjusted by assumptions around all sorts of things. If the company was quoted on the stock market it would be more important from an investor point of view as it helps define the value of the stock. But any company can survive if it produces free cash each year, profitably or unprofitably
I hope once CommX comes on line they will reduce prices more as a continued forcing functioning for the rest of the industry.
Musk has pushed prices lower. The question is will he continue to do so once the development costs of partial reuse are recovered?
Quote from: john smith 19 on 05/10/2017 03:53 pmMusk has pushed prices lower. The question is will he continue to do so once the development costs of partial reuse are recovered?I don't think this has a meaning.Development costs were somewhat higher due to reuse. There is no notional lender who lent them this money.They are not going to transfer into a 'normal' space company.There will always be a new project to take the money, that you might consider as now going into 'paying back the development cost', whether it's Red Dragon, FH, Dragon 2-moon, Raptor, bbootstrapping CommX, ITS, mars-ISRU, mars-boring, ...
Quote from: mme on 05/10/2017 01:49 pm I hope once CommX comes on line they will reduce prices more as a continued forcing functioning for the rest of the industry.Historically LV suppliers have basically said "this is what it costs, pay us."Musk has pushed prices lower. The question is will he continue to do so once the development costs of partial reuse are recovered?
Quote from: john smith 19 on 05/10/2017 03:53 pmQuote from: mme on 05/10/2017 01:49 pm I hope once CommX comes on line they will reduce prices more as a continued forcing functioning for the rest of the industry.Historically LV suppliers have basically said "this is what it costs, pay us."Musk has pushed prices lower. The question is will he continue to do so once the development costs of partial reuse are recovered?They haven't borrowed money to do reuse.They don't have a running account that they need to put back on.Their concern is far more in the lines of replenishing every cent of cash they burned after AMOS-6 until they returned to flight. And put aside the mountain of cash they'll need to manufacture the first batch of CommX satellites, the first large Raptor rockets and the large list of upcoming plans SpaceX has.
They haven't borrowed money to do reuse.They don't have a running account that they need to put back on.Their concern is far more in the lines of replenishing every cent of cash they burned after AMOS-6 until they returned to flight. And put aside the mountain of cash they'll need to manufacture the first batch of CommX satellites, the first large Raptor rockets and the large list of upcoming plans SpaceX has.
Quote from: mme on 05/10/2017 01:49 pm I hope once CommX comes on line they will reduce prices more as a continued forcing functioning for the rest of the industry.I was thinking about this; if Musk pushes prices too low (too quickly), could it actually deter others from entering the market?
Quote from: Joffan on 05/12/2017 09:12 pmQuote from: mme on 05/10/2017 01:49 pm I hope once CommX comes on line they will reduce prices more as a continued forcing functioning for the rest of the industry.I was thinking about this; if Musk pushes prices too low (too quickly), could it actually deter others from entering the market?Markets are interesting creatures. If someone can do it cheaper then others will push to undercut fighting for market share.So going cheaper is actually good for the market.
A BTW looking at 2016 launch statistics by country if SpaceX for 2017 is considered it's own country it would be the #1 launcher compared to any country.
This year if SpaceX actually does 25
Currently globally there is a total of 80 to 100 launches to orbit of everything per year. SpaceX providing such a supply would make it such that schedule would no longer be a concern since demand would be a long way behind the supply.
Making the Prices for the launch the deciding factor for just about any customer commercial or government, even foreign governments. The following could be a consideration for foreign governments: If the "In-House" provider can't launch when desired they will contract out to SpaceX.
SpaceX launch rate of 25 possible just this year represents 25% of the global launches. SpaceX's market share of the global launch could reach 50% by 2020 with even the total global launches increasing to 150/yr.
Prices are going down and will likely continue to decrease year over year. As SpaceX develops additional tech increaseing performance/decreasing costs this yearly decrease is not likely to halt. If each year has a 10% reduction then if there is no big step function this model would have a 20mt payload to orbit price of $15M by 2030. But SpaceX is planning a big step function in the mid 2020s. So in mid 2020s the Price for 20mt would be with this 10% yearly reduction model of $27M.