SpaceX F9 : NROL-108 : KSC LC-39A : 19 December 2020 (14:00 UTC)

[maosmiraculous]

Assuming there is a connection, this one is more likely related to NROL-101, since L-101 is originally planned for October, not to mention the patch...

[nuukee]

Delta launch planned for August, while NROL-108 suddenly appeared in October. So ULA faked launch and then they found an issue?

Ok it doesn't make sense you're right

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Back to more mundane and less wild speculation about black programs. NROL is very adept at keeping secrets and hiding giving misleading implications. In the 1980's launching such sats, all we knew was mass and the orbit we were dumping it off at. Sometimes the sat arrived at VAFB already encapsulated in the faring so no one could even inadvertently get a glimpse of what the sat even looked like. BTW that orbit wasn't fully orbital either and would rapidly decay. So it was far from being the final orbit. Which is probably the same with this launch. The Launch team does not know the final orbit parameters the sat will reach on it's own. Just the one which they take it too.

Now the mundane.
With a likely 12 day cycle. The booster is all ready to go. Just need to mate to US and then place on the TEL. The schedule is more likely driven by sat processing since encapsulation is not likely to occur until there is a good launch date projection. SpaceX will need a couple of days to inspect and get the TEL ready for the booster+ mated US. Which is place on the TEL at about T-7to8 days. This is to leave a few days (about 3 to 4) to do the trip to the pad , hot fire, back to the HIF, sat mate, and then back to pad for launch. The slip of CRS by a day may or may not change the prospective launch date since it is driven by TEL processing and sat processing. TEL availability may push the date out but sat may also if there is problems with sat processing.

[thirtyone]

Was anyone able to guess the inclination based on the previous hazard areas? This is a heck of a lot of speculation but I'm starting to wonder if this is similar to the Russian "satellite servicing" missions, and the lightly veiled mission patch could be part of the political posturing. If these two launches (NROL-101 and NROL-108) are going to similar inclinations (which, from what I hear, don't quite perfectly match any of the currently known previous NROL constellations), then that's more evidence for something interesting going on...

[zubenelgenubi]

Regarding launch campaign timeline, we still don't know if there will be a Static Fire before launch (Falcon 9 Static Fire or not thread).

Static Fire or no will determine approximately when the LV is transported to the pad.

[Jansen]

Liability Insurance: SpaceX shall maintain a policy or policies of liability insurance (or otherwise demonstrate financial responsibility) for covered claims in accordance with 14 C.F.R. § 440.9(b) in the amount of:
(a) Flight of Falcon 9 launch vehicle from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS)

One Hundred Sixty Million Dollars ($160,000,000) for the Falcon 9 NROL-108 mission;

Government Property Insurance: SpaceX shall maintain a policy or policies of insurance (or otherwise demonstrate financial responsibility) for covered claims resulting from flight in accordance with 14 C.F.R § 440.9(d) in the amount of:
(a) Flight of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle from CCAFS:
(i) Ninety-Two Million Dollars ($92,000,000) for Falcon 9 NASA Dragon 1 CRS missions;
(ii) One Hundred Million Dollars ($100,000,000) for the SAOCOM-1B mission or NROL-108 mission or GTO or LEO missions; and
(b) Pre-flight operations performed at CCAFS:
(i) Forty-Three Million Dollars ($43,000,000) for all missions.
6. Covered property includes all property owned, leased, or occupied by, or within the care, custody, or control of, the United States and its agencies, and its contractors and subcontractors involved in licensed launch activities, at CCAFS.

FAA requires $160 million liability insurance for NROL-108, probably due to its RTLS profile.

[Ken the Bin]

Notices from the NGA:

120329Z DEC 20
NAVAREA IV 1201/20(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   171355Z TO 171752Z DEC, ALTERNATE
   181355Z TO 181752Z DEC
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-39-43N 080-38-12W, 29-02-00N 080-15-00W,
      28-57-00N 080-08-00W, 28-40-00N 080-11-00W,
      28-27-00N 080-24-00W, 28-26-52N 080-32-07W.
   B. 30-12-00N 079-06-00W, 30-28-00N 078-56-00W,
      30-54-00N 078-52-00W, 31-14-00N 078-13-00W,
      31-06-00N 077-36-00W, 30-47-00N 077-22-00W,
      30-27-00N 077-26-00W, 30-08-00N 078-20-00W,
      30-03-00N 078-58-00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 181852Z DEC 20.

120414Z DEC 20
NAVAREA XII 564/20(21,83).
EASTERN PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   171508Z TO 171841Z DEC, ALTERNATE
   181508Z TO 181841Z DEC
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   12-27S 135-24W, 11-03S 135-01W,
   04-31N 125-02W, 12-23N 118-23W,
   11-34N 117-22W, 01-11N 123-20W,
   11-32S 132-38W, 13-10S 134-27W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 181941Z DEC 20.

[kdhilliard]

Notices from the NGA:

120329Z DEC 20
NAVAREA IV 1201/20(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   171355Z TO 171752Z DEC, ALTERNATE
   181355Z TO 181752Z DEC

13:55 to 17:52 Z is 08:55 to 12:52 Local (EST=UTC-5).
What does that tell us about the launch window?

The NGA notice for the SXM-7 attempt on the 11th was for 16:14 to 19:12 Z = 11:14 to 14:12 Local,
and SpaceX gave a launch window of 11:21 to 13:20 Local.
That's 7 minutes after the start of the Maritime Safety warning to 52 minutes before the end.

Applying that to the NROL-108 warning suggests a window of 09:02 to 12:00 Local.

Does that sound right?
(It's possible this mission requires an instantaneous launch window, but being an NRO launch they reserved a larger block for purposes of obfuscation.)

_{I'm excited at the prospect of another RTLS mission, and just might be able to watch this one in person!}

[gongora]

With NROL launches I don't assume it's at the beginning of the window. 

[Ken the Bin]

Notices from the NGA:

120329Z DEC 20
NAVAREA IV 1201/20(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   171355Z TO 171752Z DEC, ALTERNATE
   181355Z TO 181752Z DEC

13:55 to 17:52 Z is 08:55 to 12:52 Local (EST=UTC-5).
What does that tell us about the launch window?

The NGA notice for the SXM-7 attempt on the 11th was for 16:14 to 19:12 Z = 11:14 to 14:12 Local,
and SpaceX gave a launch window of 11:21 to 13:20 Local.
That's 7 minutes after the start of the Maritime Safety warning to 52 minutes before the end.

Applying that to the NROL-108 warning suggests a window of 09:02 to 12:00 Local.

Does that sound right?
(It's possible this mission requires an instantaneous launch window, but being an NRO launch they reserved a larger block for purposes of obfuscation.)

_{I'm excited at the prospect of another RTLS mission, and just might be able to watch this one in person!}

It's unusual for the number of minutes from the beginning of the hazard period to the launch window to be seven minutes.  It's much more common for it to be five or sometimes ten minutes.

When I received the notice and made my own guess as to the launch window, it was 14:00-17:00 UTC (09:00-12:00 EST).

Subsequently I see that Ben Cooper and Spaceflight Now are giving the same window.

Then, a Falcon 9 will launch NROL-108 for the National Reconnaissance Office from pad 39A on December 17, sometime between 9am and 12pm EST.

Launch window: 1400-1700 GMT (9:00 a.m.-12:00 p.m. EST)

[AndrewRG10]

Important to note that if this booster lands successfully it will be the 20th landing in a row which breaks the previous streak of 19 in a row from 2016-2018.

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/NatReconOfc/status/1338499180122267654

Gorillas are peaceful animals but can be fierce when necessary. Like the gorilla, our #NROL108 mission is constantly vigilant and ready to defend its own, demonstrating NRO's commitment to protecting U.S. warfighters, interests, and allies. Launch scheduled NET Dec. 17 w/ @SpaceX

[scr00chy]

I thought the LOTR patch was the official NRO mission patch. Do they have two?

[soltasto]

I thought the LOTR patch was the official NRO mission patch. Do they have two?

I'm starting to think that one was not official and was fan made...

[Newton_V]

I thought the LOTR patch was the official NRO mission patch. Do they have two?

I'm starting to think that one was not official and was fan made...

No, it's official (have the patch).   Gorilla is the mission logo that will be on the fairing.  At least i think it will be on the PLF.

[Jansen]

I thought the LOTR patch was the official NRO mission patch. Do they have two?

I'm starting to think that one was not official and was fan made...

No, it's official (have the patch).   Gorilla is the mission logo that will be on the fairing.  At least i think it will be on the PLF.

Won’t they just use the NRO logo?

[FutureSpaceTourist]

L-3 launch weather forecast, 60% GO

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Launch hazard and airspace closure areas

[thirtyone]

Launch hazard and airspace closure areas

Can the inclination of the launch be guessed to some reasonable bounds based on the closure areas?

[Targeteer]

fro

Launch hazard and airspace closure areas

Can the inclination of the launch be guessed to some reasonable bounds based on the closure areas?

from the purple area on the first graphic, high inclination?

From the NROL-101 launch, it went to 58 degrees