Author Topic: SpaceX's Priorities (Read 2592 times)

spacenut · « **on:** 12/15/2025 12:56 pm »

With all the talk about Starlink, Data Centers, Mars ambitions, I was wondering what SpaceX's priority list looks like.

Here is my idea:

1) Get Starship Operational
2) Get all of Starlink satellites in orbit, then begin slow replacements of version 1 Starlinks

Then it gets merky

3) Either get a large Data Center constellation for Xai in orbit and operational or
get fuel depots in space for Mars and Lunar transports.

I know they have a contract for the Lunar lander, but I feel that is a sideline.

Will the Data Center launches be more important than Musk's Mar ambitions? A data center can make money with adds and use, but is that also needed along with Starlink services for a cash flow for Mars?

I want to see a Mars colony get started.

DanClemmensen · « **Reply #1 on:** 12/15/2025 01:30 pm »

SpaceX has become a big company. It can do more than one thing at a time. This means that a "priorities" list must be treated with caution. They can allocate resources to the higher priorities first, but any particular project begins to have diminishing returns per incremental resources. That is, an additional engineer won't improve that project much. At that point that new engineers should be allocated to a different project. They can continue to allocate engineers and other resources to projects at optimal ROI until they run out of projects or run out of resources. Given their resources, I suspect that the obvious stuff is all fully supported. There is still contention for actual launches until Starship becomes fully operational, but they appear to using multi-purpose prototype Ships for now, i.e. Pez ships that can also transfer propellant.

Once they are fully operational, they hope to reach full and rapid reusability. Starlink will require one booster and two Pez Ships to get to about 100 launches per year, which is enough to build and then maintain a Starlink constellation of 40,000 satellites with a 5-year satellite lifetime. If the booster lifetime is 100 flights and the Ship lifetime is 50 flights, they will need one booster and two Pez Ships per year. All of the remaining capacity can go to other projects.

Vultur · « **Reply #2 on:** 12/15/2025 03:14 pm »

The good scenario (where a space data center buildout works with, not against, Mars ambitions) is that the Ships used for Mars launches once a synod do data center stuff the rest of the time.

However, it may not be that simple. Mars needs a lot of Tankers, a smaller number of EDL capable cargo ships, and an even smaller number of crew Ships. Some unknown proportion of the ships that actually go to Mars (not Tankers) will stay on Mars as structure rather than returning to Earth.

If the data centers are in relatively low orbits they won't need a bunch of Tankers, and if they are based on Starlink v3 form factor they would mostly use Pez Starships - different from any of the three models used for Mars.

However, even with different Ship models, there could still be an advantage in that the ground infrastructure built and sizes for a once every 26 months Mars surge isn't sitting mostly idle the rest of the year. Also, the Super Heavies will *presumably* be Ship model agnostic?

meekGee · « **Reply #3 on:** 12/15/2025 04:15 pm »

I don't know if they can still make it, but I think once they can launch and refuel, Mars 2026 is the highest priority. Everything else can wait 2 months, nothing is burning. Then there's a year and a half before the next window, in which they can address the other important stuff.

I know people that hunt. Fixing the roof is important, but when that time of year comes around, that's what takes priority.

spacenut · « **Reply #4 on:** 12/16/2025 05:17 pm »

Yep, you can fix a roof year round, but hunting season is only for a few weeks depending on where you are. I guess Mars is like hunting season, do it when you can. All other stuff like Starlink, xAI in space, fuel depots, and lunar work can be done at any time.

I was just wondering if Mars goal is still the top priority.

RedLineTrain · « **Reply #5 on:** 12/16/2025 05:22 pm »

We are very lucky that Starship and Starlink can contribute in some fashion to the AI race. That's where Musk is spending his time and energy lately. Even the moon is getting a mention as part of the plan.