Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6

[FutureSpaceTourist]

NEAF Briefs- NEAF Talks now in 12 minutes or less.

Filmed April 2025

What’s the real story behind the Boeing Starliner problems. Boeing Technical Fellow Tom Mulder gives the inside details with this exclusive story of exactly what took place and what’s next for Starliner.

Development of the Boeing Starliner spacecraft began in 2009 as a Space Shuttle replacement for crew and cargo delivery to the International Space Station (ISS). Vehicle design matured rapidly with the award of a NASA contract in September 2014, however numerous delays ensued and test flights did not begin until 2019  leading to additional problems and delays.  The first crewed flight test, CFT-1 with Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams, finally took place in 2024 with less than optimal results.  As a member of the Starliner team since its inception, Tom Mulder will describe exactly what happened with CFT 1, and what does the future hold for Starliner.   

ABOUT THE SPEAKER-
TOM MULDER is the navigation, control, and mission designer for the Boeing CST Starliner. He is a Technical Fellow living in Temecula, California and working for the Boeing Office in Houston.  He is an Associate Fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).  During his 43-year career, Tom worked in guidance, navigation, and control; specializing in rendezvous mission design for the Space Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), Commercial Crew, and other Boeing space programs.  Tom designed the architecture behind CST-100 Starliner autonomous flight and requirements for guiding the vehicle during ISS rendezvous, departure, and deorbit.  Previously, Tom was Chief Engineer for a Boeing team that developed autonomous rendezvous technologies for advanced projects, including DARPA’s Orbital Express Program; for which Tom served as Rendezvous Director during its 2007 Earth-orbiting mission.  Tom graduated with an Aerospace Engineering Degree from Iowa State University.  Among his commendations are the Astronaut Office Silver Snoopy Award and Rotary Club Stellar Individual Award.

[StraumliBlight]

NEAF Briefs- NEAF Talks now in 12 minutes or less.

Filmed April 2025

What’s the real story behind the Boeing Starliner problems. Boeing Technical Fellow Tom Mulder gives the inside details with this exclusive story of exactly what took place and what’s next for Starliner.

At 10:45, he mentions "It hasn't been determined by NASA exactly what flights will take place in the future. I can only speculate that maybe we'll have a couple of flights next year, and then one flight per year after that. The last flight would be in 2030."

[catdlr]

https://youtube.com/watch?v=yQSxHi4AI-0

NEAF Briefs- NEAF Talks now in 12 minutes or less.

Filmed April 2025

What’s the real story behind the Boeing Starliner problems. Boeing Technical Fellow Tom Mulder gives the inside details with this exclusive story of exactly what took place and what’s next for Starliner.

Development of the Boeing Starliner spacecraft began in 2009 as a Space Shuttle replacement for crew and cargo delivery to the International Space Station (ISS). Vehicle design matured rapidly with the award of a NASA contract in September 2014, however numerous delays ensued and test flights did not begin until 2019  leading to additional problems and delays.  The first crewed flight test, CFT-1 with Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams, finally took place in 2024 with less than optimal results.  As a member of the Starliner team since its inception, Tom Mulder will describe exactly what happened with CFT 1, and what does the future hold for Starliner.   

ABOUT THE SPEAKER-
TOM MULDER is the navigation, control, and mission designer for the Boeing CST Starliner. He is a Technical Fellow living in Temecula, California and working for the Boeing Office in Houston.  He is an Associate Fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).  During his 43-year career, Tom worked in guidance, navigation, and control; specializing in rendezvous mission design for the Space Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), Commercial Crew, and other Boeing space programs.  Tom designed the architecture behind CST-100 Starliner autonomous flight and requirements for guiding the vehicle during ISS rendezvous, departure, and deorbit.  Previously, Tom was Chief Engineer for a Boeing team that developed autonomous rendezvous technologies for advanced projects, including DARPA’s Orbital Express Program; for which Tom served as Rendezvous Director during its 2007 Earth-orbiting mission.  Tom graduated with an Aerospace Engineering Degree from Iowa State University.  Among his commendations are the Astronaut Office Silver Snoopy Award and Rotary Club Stellar Individual Award.

For those wishing to listen to the entire presentation:

[mn]

My initial reaction to this is that typically people on the inside will not talk until after the curtain closes...

I didn't watch this yet and I hope my initial reaction is wrong.

[kendalla59]

NEAF Briefs- NEAF Talks now in 12 minutes or less.

Filmed April 2025

What’s the real story behind the Boeing Starliner problems. Boeing Technical Fellow Tom Mulder gives the inside details with this exclusive story of exactly what took place and what’s next for Starliner.

I just watched the entire presentation. My first impression is that the presenter admitted to no errors or issues from his team, after the software mistake was fixed. The blame instead was (very gently) placed on Butch Wilmore, or more precisely NASA flight test planning, for exercising the thrusters manually. Also, Aerojet Rocketdyne was indirectly blamed, insofar as they were presumed to be responsible for the thruster performance and not Boeing.

In my experience writing control systems software, I have seen on many occasions excessive energy usage in the feedback loop of a dynamic system. Imagine you are trying to maintain a very specific orientation of the spacecraft. The sensors detect a slight drift, so you need to apply some energy to correct the drift. But if even a tiny bit too much energy is used then you need more energy to re-adjust. This can escalate quickly. I read somewhere that Boeing has a coarse attitude control, and a fine attitude control. No doubt they use the fine control when near the ISS, and my bet is that the control software wastes a lot of energy. That becomes heat and then you have a big problem with systems shutting down.

I wish I could have asked that question, what is the minimum amount of energy expected to maintain spacecraft control, and how much more energy did they see used in practice? And... do they even make those calculations?

[Comga]

NEAF Briefs- NEAF Talks now in 12 minutes or less.

Filmed April 2025

What’s the real story behind the Boeing Starliner problems. Boeing Technical Fellow Tom Mulder gives the inside details with this exclusive story of exactly what took place and what’s next for Starliner.

I just watched the entire presentation. My first impression is that the presenter admitted to no errors or issues from his team, after the software mistake was fixed. The blame instead was (very gently) placed on Butch Wilmore, or more precisely NASA flight test planning, for exercising the thrusters manually. Also, Aerojet Rocketdyne was indirectly blamed, insofar as they were presumed to be responsible for the thruster performance and not Boeing.

This
Tom Mulder must be a smart and capable guy, but this was a disreputable performance.
Completely skipping over the majority of issues
No new information
No explanation of any of the failures
No admission of how much money and time have been lost
No discussion of remediations
No status of ongoing work
No realistic discussion of Starliner’s future
The aforementioned blaming
Disappointing, to say the least

[woods170]

During one of the mission briefings it was mentioned that Starliner was kept at a particular solar attitude after launch for some technical reason, i.e. no Apollo-style BBQ-roll (aka Passive Thermal Control, PTC). It might very well be that this resulted in the cabin being permanently shadowed, and hence colder than anticipated.

Anyone remember the details of the briefing? It might have been mentioned in relation to the (over-) heating of the thrusters in the "dog house" which had been exposed to the largest amount of direct sunlight in the period between orbital insertion and docking.

That's some interesting detail and could explain the secrecy. Either they knew about expected problems with the thrusters and tried to avoid them by different orientation than during the test flight, or some additional failure happened which required this unusual orientation.

Emphasis mine.

Starliner is equipped with solar arrays on its "rear end". Pointing those directly towards the Sun puts the Crew Module (which is the "front end" of the Starliner) permanently in shadow, regardless of performing a "barbecue roll". Only by offsetting the angle towards the Sun by roughly 45 degrees (which is suboptimal for solar electric power generation) would a substantial half of the crew cabin be in direct sunlight again.

Crew Dragon don't have this issue because its solar arrays are conformal and cover half the trunk. Roughly pointing them towards the Sun already puts part of the crew module in direct sunlight.

Of note: Starliner was originally designed to fly without solar arrays, entirely operating on battery power. The rear-mounted solar arrays were a bit of an afterthought.

[StraumliBlight]

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1931085982264148441

Apropos of nothing, NASA releases a statement this afternoon saying the agency is tracking toward Starliner's next flight in early 2026.

[zubenelgenubi edit/add]
NASA statement

NASA is assessing the earliest potential for a Starliner flight to the International Space Station in early 2026, pending system certification and resolution of Starliner’s technical issues.

The agency is still evaluating whether Starliner’s next flight will be in a crew or cargo configuration. NASA astronauts are training for a Starliner post-certification mission as the agency continues to review its forward plans and execute testing campaigns targeted throughout the spring and summer. 

However, the agency has not yet assigned a full Starliner-1 crew for focused training. We will share more information about the next flight configuration, timing, and crew as work progresses toward certification of the Starliner for regular crew rotation flights.

[Comga]

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1931085982264148441

Apropos of nothing, NASA releases a statement this afternoon saying the agency is tracking toward Starliner's next flight in early 2026.

It may not be "apropos of nothing" but rather a press release on the first anniversary of the launch of CFT.
It's been an entire year.

[zubenelgenubi]

NSF covering NASA Starliner statement as well.

NASA statement copy/pasted to Eric Berger tweet above.

https://twitter.com.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1931090899506753718

[zubenelgenubi]

Reuters NASA astronauts Butch and Suni emerge from recovery after long Starliner mission, Joey Roulette, May 28

And, SFN Further delays of Starliner’s next flight mark anniversary of its first crewed Space Station docking, Will Robinson-Smith, June 7

[Sunita] Williams called flying an uncrewed Starliner flight as its next trip to space would be “the logical thing to do.”

“I think that’s the correct path,” Williams told Reuters, adding that she hoped “Boeing and NASA will decide on that same course of action.”

Doghouse testing:

In the aforementioned March 27 news release, NASA said that the agency and Boeing would be spending the spring and summer at the White Sands Test Facility in New Mexico going through “integrated firing of key Starliner thrusters within a single service module doghouse to validate detailed thermal models and inform potential propulsion and spacecraft thermal protection system upgrades, as well as operational solutions for future flights.”

A “doghouse” is the term used to describe the four compartments on the Starliner’s service module exterior that each house seven Reaction Control System (RCS) thrusters. Five of these RCS thrusters went out during the attempt to rendezvous Starliner with the space station on June 6.

Four of the thrusters were recovered, prior to docking. However, there are still lingering questions about how to either redesign part of the vehicle or operate it in a different fashion such that similar issues don’t happen again.

Spaceflight Now asked NASA for an overview of the schedule of testing out at White Sands, like when it will begin and the timing of milestones. An agency spokesperson said, “We will share more information as work progresses.”

Starliner-1 crew complement:

While NASA continues to ponder the question of whether or not crew will be on the next flight of Starliner, question marks continue to swirl around who the astronauts will be that will fly the first crewed mission, dubbed Starliner-1.
<snip>
But recently, both NASA and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), the agencies who previously announced three out of the four astronauts set to fly on the post-certification flight of the spacecraft, dubbed Starliner-1, are now unwilling to back their previous statements.
<snip>
NASA announced a change to the Starliner-1 lineup on March 27 when it named the astronauts and cosmonaut who would be flying the SpaceX Crew-11 mission no earlier than July 2025. Among the four announced were both Fincke and Yui.
<snip>
In light of Fincke’s reassignment, Spaceflight Now reached out at to NASA at the time to confirm that Tingle and Kutryk were both still assigned to the Starliner-1 mission. NASA declined to confirm that.

“NASA and its international partners continue to evaluate future assignments based on the crew members’ qualifications, skills, and experience to ensure the respective agencies accomplish their human spaceflight goals,” an agency spokesperson told Spaceflight Now in a statement. “NASA will share additional information on crew assignments when available.”

Asked again, for clarification, if that meant that Tingle and Kutryk were no longer part of the Starliner-1 crew, the spokesperson replied, “We will follow up when we have more information on future crew assignments.”

SFN story also has a Starliner-1 summary history, thus far.

[zubenelgenubi]

Might we see a pace pickup regarding doghouse testing, given the feud outburst earlier this week?

[greybeardengineer]

Might we see a pace pickup regarding doghouse testing, given the feud outburst earlier this week?

The pace will only pick up proportionally to the size of big beautiful additional payments the feds are willing to toss to Boeing.

[DanClemmensen]

Might we see a pace pickup regarding doghouse testing, given the feud outburst earlier this week?

The pace will only pick up proportionally to the size of big beautiful additional payments the feds are willing to toss to Boeing.

The Starliner CCtCap contract is fixed-price, IDIQ. it has no provision for extra payments for this extra testing.

Of course, there is no provision for paying for another uncrewed flight, either.

[greybeardengineer]

Might we see a pace pickup regarding doghouse testing, given the feud outburst earlier this week?

The pace will only pick up proportionally to the size of big beautiful additional payments the feds are willing to toss to Boeing.

The Starliner CCtCap contract is fixed-price, IDIQ. it has no provision for extra payments for this extra testing.

Of course, there is no provision for paying for another uncrewed flight, either.

Cool story bro but fixed-price ain't always so fixed.

https://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-criticizes-additional-boeing-commercial-crew-payments/

NASA inspector general criticizes additional Boeing commercial crew payments

[Vettedrmr]

Cool story bro but fixed-price ain't always so fixed.

https://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-criticizes-additional-boeing-commercial-crew-payments/

NASA inspector general criticizes additional Boeing commercial crew payments

Quoting an article from 2019??

[woods170]

Cool story bro but fixed-price ain't always so fixed.

https://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-criticizes-additional-boeing-commercial-crew-payments/

NASA inspector general criticizes additional Boeing commercial crew payments

Quoting an article from 2019??

Indeed... about a one-time additional payment.

Ever since Boeing botched OFT-1 in 2019, NASA has stone-walled any further Boeing attempt to get additional payments.
For example: Boeing tried to get NASA to pay for OFT-2. NASA said "No". The NASA lawyers proceeded to point out to the Boeing lawyers what milestones-based firm fixed-price means.
Ever since, Boeing's been eating all the losses they are making on Starliner. Well over $2B by now.

[greybeardengineer]

Ever since Boeing's been eating all the losses they are making on Starliner. Well over $2B by now.

Which tells you everything you need to know about the prospects of Boeing "picking up the pace" or lifting an extra finger beyond inarguable contractual requirements. We might even expect another rumor campaign about them pulling out of CC completely to test the congressional waters given recent events.

[DanClemmensen]

Cool story bro but fixed-price ain't always so fixed.

https://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-criticizes-additional-boeing-commercial-crew-payments/

NASA inspector general criticizes additional Boeing commercial crew payments

Quoting an article from 2019??

The story (and the OIG report) were from 2019, but the extra $287 million was a negotiated increase that occurred in 2016, when Starliner was still considered the front-runner. Boeing played hard-ball and threatened to walk away from the contract. the money was justified as a way to keep Boeing in the game so they could begin operational service in 2018. So NASA could quit depending on Soyuz. Really. The $300 million was in the form of increased payouts for each of the operational missions when they occur, and were coupled with extending the firm fixed price from just the first two missions to cover all six missions. Once Crew Dragon became operational, NASA does not have the same urgency to support Starliner.

So, Boeing has not seen one cent of that $287 million, and they cannot negotiate a new price for Starliner-3 through Starliner-6: 2029 missions at 2018 prices. By contrast, SpaceX was not offered an opportunity to renegotiate in 2016, and SpaceX negotiated increased prices both the first contract extension (Crew-3 through Crew-5) and the second contract extension (Crew-6 through Crew-14). By my estimate, these extensions were approximately sufficient to cover the projected inflation rate. I expect them to do the same if/when they contract for Crew-15 through Crew-20, but they may be moved to bump the price up by a lot more because F9 will be EOL and because this administration is choosing to threaten SpaceX contracts.

[zubenelgenubi]

Might we see a pace pickup regarding doghouse testing, given the feud outburst earlier this week?

"Copy" on the replies.✔️

Hypothetical: The President could use the power of the "bully pulpit" (reference: Theodore Roosevelt) to urge Boeing to pick up the testing pace for no extra money.

(I realize that could does not mean will.)

We know almost nothing about the doghouse testing schedule.  What is a reasonable educated guess regarding how fact the tests can be diligently accomplished?  Competent data analysis must also be completed.