Author Topic: Radiation on mars one trip  (Read 8605 times)

Offline michaelwy

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Radiation on mars one trip
« on: 05/28/2013 01:57 am »
One thing that concerns me about this mars one scheme is the possibility of the settlers developing cancer on mars. The way i see, issues concerning radiation have not been solved. I have some questions & ideas:

1. Is it possible within the timeframe of Mars One to create a spacecraft and a habitat with proper shielding? I can imagine some kind of active magnetic generator on the base shielding the settlers for work just outside their doors. If they are not shielded for radiation while they work on the base, expansion or even outside activity becomes impossible. They cannot simply rely on the shielding of their suits.The magnetic generator should be mobile and perhaps powered by nuclear energy. 

2. What will the settlers do if or when they develop cancer? Death will not be painless. Will there be any form of cancer medication on board? Pain relief? Will there perhaps be a medical machine similiar to the one that operated on the heroine of the Prometheus movie? How far away is such a machine? Will there be a chemical printer that prints medicine? A seed bank of medical plants, including opium and canabis plants, for pain relief?  Will the outcome of the tricorder x-prize be available as a diagnostic tool?
« Last Edit: 05/28/2013 02:17 am by michaelwy »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #1 on: 05/28/2013 02:17 am »
1. Is it possible within the timeframe of Mars One to create a spacecraft and a habitat with proper shielding?

Depends what you mean by "proper". These problems will be solved (by Paragon) for the Inspiration Mars mission. I expect they'll have a column of water for shielding during solar storms. There's just about nothing you can do about galactic cosmic radiation.

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I can imagine some kind of active magnetic generator on the base shielding the settlers for work just outside their doors. If they are not shielded for radiation while they work on the base, expansion or even outside activity becomes impossible. They cannot simply rely on the shielding of their suits.

The radiation exposure on Mars isn't that bad, and most time will be spent indoors, shielded by a layer of dirt.

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2. What will the settlers do if or when they develop cancer? Death will not be painless. Will there be any form of cancer medication on board? Pain relief?

Yes. When they die will not be as important to them as where, otherwise they wouldn't go.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline michaelwy

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #2 on: 05/28/2013 02:27 am »
1. Is it possible within the timeframe of Mars One to create a spacecraft and a habitat with proper shielding?

Depends what you mean by "proper". These problems will be solved (by Paragon) for the Inspiration Mars mission. I expect they'll have a column of water for shielding during solar storms. There's just about nothing you can do about galactic cosmic radiation.

The radiation exposure on Mars isn't that bad, and most time will be spent indoors, shielded by a layer of dirt.

Yes. When they die will not be as important to them as where, otherwise they wouldn't go.


NASA calculates the amount of radiation an astronaut is allowed to experience while on the space station. Isn't it possible to calculate how much radiation a trip to Mars will entail? Then you could calculate the shielding needed, and balance that against the length of time before cancer develops.

Also, i do not see why robots can't simply build a finished base on mars before any astronauts arrive. Is there any need for any astronaut BEFORE the settlement is ready. That way the quality of life of the settlers will be better.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #3 on: 05/28/2013 02:30 am »
NASA calculates the amount of radiation an astronaut is allowed to experience while on the space station. Isn't it possible to calculate how much radiation a trip to Mars will entail?

Sure, if you can get straight numbers out of anyone.

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Then you could calculate the shielding needed, and balance that against the length of time before cancer develops.

There's no actual numbers for that.. or even an agreement that more exposure = more chance of cancer.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_no-threshold_model

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Also, i do not see why robots can't simply build a finished base on mars before any astronauts arrive. Is there any need for any astronaut BEFORE the settlement is ready. That way the quality of life of the settlers will be better.

Because robots can't do what they do in the movies.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline michaelwy

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #4 on: 05/28/2013 02:46 am »
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Because robots can't do what they do in the movies.


Actually, i can not see why. If they can build something like Curiosity, then they can surely build a less advanced construction machine to level out a site or even dig out an underground tunnel for the base? The modules could land in an excavated area and the machine place the soil on top, and then you have an underground base.

Personally, i don't see Mars One even getting off the ground. The cost is simply too high, even if they market it as a perverse reality show based on a suicide mission.
« Last Edit: 05/28/2013 02:50 am by michaelwy »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #5 on: 05/28/2013 02:53 am »
Please fix your quotes.

Actually, i can not see why. If they can build something like Curiosity, then they can surely build a less advanced construction machine to level out a site or even dig out an underground tunnel for the base?

Curiosity is not comparable to those tasks, requires a large ground team of PhDs to run, and takes months to do anything.

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The modules could land in an excavated area and the machine place the soil on top, and then you have an undergound base.

Oh, you're not aware that they're planning to have rovers which prepare the site and put all the modules in place, etc.

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Personally, i don't see Mars One even getting off the ground. The cost is simply too high, even if the market it as perverse reality show based on a suicide mission.

I'm more interested in people who are trying to make the future than predict it.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline michaelwy

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #6 on: 05/28/2013 03:07 am »
Please fix your quotes.

Actually, i can not see why. If they can build something like Curiosity, then they can surely build a less advanced construction machine to level out a site or even dig out an underground tunnel for the base?

Curiosity is not comparable to those tasks, requires a large ground team of PhDs to run, and takes months to do anything.

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The modules could land in an excavated area and the machine place the soil on top, and then you have an undergound base.

Oh, you're not aware that they're planning to have rovers which prepare the site and put all the modules in place, etc.

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Personally, i don't see Mars One even getting off the ground. The cost is simply too high, even if the market it as perverse reality show based on a suicide mission.

I'm more interested in people who are trying to make the future than predict it.


Do you have any idea about what one hopes to achieve with Mars One? What sort of progress is it to have ten or twenty people die horrible deaths on live television?

The Mars One team should postpone the mission untill the technical issues have been solved. In stead, they should collect money to have them solved. Clearly they could use parts of NASAs SLS.
The rest they could spend a few decades trying to solve. In stead they want to rush off within a decade.

I am not sure if there is anything interesting to do on Mars? Perhaps it would be better to create  a new, movable rotating space station. Then to follow Bush's plan to settle on the moon.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #7 on: 05/28/2013 03:14 am »
Do you have any idea about what one hopes to achieve with Mars One? What sort of progress is it to have ten or twenty people die horrible deaths on live television?

I can't say I've seen that listed in the program guide.

The most anyone has ever landed on Mars is Curiosity at 900 kg, and at a price of several billion dollars. If all Mars One ever achieves is a single cargo mission, it'll be more than anyone else has.

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The Mars One team should postpone the mission until the technical issues have been solved. Instead, they should collect money to have them solved.

What do you think they're doing?

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Clearly they could use parts of NASAs SLS.

How?

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The rest they could spend a few decades trying to solve. Instead they want to rush off within a decade.

The companies they're contracting (and planning to contract) say they can go in a decade. If they can't the schedule will slip, which won't be uncommon.

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I am not sure if there is anything interesting to do on Mars? Perhaps it would be better to create a new, movable rotating space station. Then to follow Bush's plan to settle on the moon.

Why don't you start your own foundation to do that and go raise money?
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline michaelwy

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #8 on: 05/28/2013 03:29 am »
Do you have any idea about what one hopes to achieve with Mars One? What sort of progress is it to have ten or twenty people die horrible deaths on live television?


What do you think they're doing?

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Clearly they could use parts of NASAs SLS.

How?

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The rest they could spend a few decades trying to solve. Instead they want to rush off within a decade.

The companies they're contracting (and planning to contract) say they can go in a decade. If they can't the schedule will slip, which won't be uncommon.

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I am not sure if there is anything interesting to do on Mars? Perhaps it would be better to create a new, movable rotating space station. Then to follow Bush's plan to settle on the moon.

Why don't you start your own foundation to do that and go raise money?


They could use the SLS rocket to ship stuff to mars. They could perhaps use the Orion spacecraft connected to some new living quarters for the trip to mars.

I am no authority on space missions. I don't think anyone would listen to me if i were to start a foundation:)
However, i cannot see what humans on mars achieve that we cannot achieve with robots.

A few years back, Nasa's Technology Assessments Team created a modell of The Nautilus spacecraft with a centrifuge for artificial gravity and large bigolow modules for storage of goods. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nautilus-X) It also featured a canada arm. If this ship was built, explorer missions could be carried out to other regions of the solar system. It could take men to Mars and back again (no death), but also perhaps to astroids or to the outer moons of jupiter. In the latter event shielding would really have to strong.

To develop shielded gravity simulation in space should be the first priority NASA.


Offline QuantumG

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #9 on: 05/28/2013 03:39 am »
They could use the SLS rocket to ship stuff to mars. They could perhaps use the Orion spacecraft connected to some new living quarters for the trip to mars.

Umm.. NASA doesn't allow entrepreneurs from The Netherlands ready access to their rockets. No matter how much they're willing to pay. SpaceX, and others, do.

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I am no authority on space missions. I don't think anyone would listen to me if i were to start a foundation :)

Neither is Bas Lansdorp. He didn't just think up this plan and slap up a website. He went to people who were willing to take his money, and whatever other money he could raise, and asked them how they would do it.

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However, i cannot see what humans on mars achieve that we cannot achieve with robots.

They could be humans.

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A few years back, NASA's Technology Assessments Team created a model of The Nautilus spacecraft with a centrifuge for artificial gravity and large Bigelow modules for storage of goods. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nautilus-X) It also featured a Canada arm. If this ship was built, explorer missions could be carried out to other regions of the solar system. It could take men to Mars and back again (no death), but also perhaps to asteroids or to the outer moons of Jupiter. In the latter event shielding would really have to strong.

To develop shielded gravity simulation in space should be the first priority NASA.

Great, when NASA does that, let us know. Until then, it's totally irrelevant to what others are actually doing.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline michaelwy

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #10 on: 05/28/2013 03:50 am »
They could use the SLS rocket to ship stuff to mars. They could perhaps use the Orion spacecraft connected to some new living quarters for the trip to mars.

Quote
A few years back, NASA's Technology Assessments Team created a model of The Nautilus spacecraft with a centrifuge for artificial gravity and large Bigelow modules for storage of goods. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nautilus-X) It also featured a Canada arm. If this ship was built, explorer missions could be carried out to other regions of the solar system. It could take men to Mars and back again (no death), but also perhaps to asteroids or to the outer moons of Jupiter. In the latter event shielding would really have to strong.

To develop shielded gravity simulation in space should be the first priority NASA.


Great, when NASA does that, let us know. Until then, it's totally irrelevant to what others are actually doing.
Just one final question. I think we have had an interesting discussion.
Do you know if the Mars One group is actually doing anything? Do they actually have money? If so, how much? Are there scientists building stuff on the order of this group?
Unless the group has a billion dollars right now, they cannot hope to develop any of the hardware they need.

« Last Edit: 05/28/2013 03:52 am by michaelwy »

Offline CriX

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #11 on: 05/28/2013 04:36 am »
Zubrin stated recently (forgot which Youtube video conference I was watching) that statistically the dosage received on a typical Mars trek would cause less risk of cancer than smoking. (!)   Would love to hear an official rebuttal to that.  Or proof on either side.  Certainly makes the space radiation threat seem trivial.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #12 on: 05/28/2013 04:47 am »
Just one final question. I think we have had an interesting discussion.

Thanks.

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Do you know if the Mars One group is actually doing anything? Do they actually have money? If so, how much? Are there scientists building stuff on the order of this group?

So far they have a few million.

http://mars-one.com/en/mars-one-news/press-releases/11-news/369-mars-one-secures-first-investments

They signed a contract for Paragon to develop life support systems.

http://mars-one.com/en/mars-one-news/press-releases/11-news/380-mars-one-contracts-paragon-for-mars-life-support-systems

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Unless the group has a billion dollars right now, they cannot hope to develop any of the hardware they need.

Why "right now"? I agree that they need more money.

Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #13 on: 05/28/2013 04:48 am »
Zubrin stated recently (forgot which Youtube video conference I was watching) that statistically the dosage received on a typical Mars trek would cause less risk of cancer than smoking. (!)   Would love to hear an official rebuttal to that.  Or proof on either side.  Certainly makes the space radiation threat seem trivial.

No-one knows, not even Zubrin.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #14 on: 05/28/2013 04:57 am »
Zubrin stated recently (forgot which Youtube video conference I was watching) that statistically the dosage received on a typical Mars trek would cause less risk of cancer than smoking. (!)   Would love to hear an official rebuttal to that.  Or proof on either side.  Certainly makes the space radiation threat seem trivial.

You should read this thread on the topic.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30480.0

My opinion is that the radiation risk is wildly overestimated based on old assumptions that are not supported by recent research. But those old assumptions are still the official state of things and so are used by NASA and Zubrin.


Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #15 on: 05/28/2013 06:05 am »
I really hope Inspiration Mars' flight happens. Nothing like some empirical data from humans on a real trip to Mars and back!

As Bas Lansdorp has noted a one-way trip has rather less exposure than a round trip (assuming decent habitat protection on the surface of Mars).

Offline gbaikie

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #16 on: 05/28/2013 07:07 am »
Zubrin stated recently (forgot which Youtube video conference I was watching) that statistically the dosage received on a typical Mars trek would cause less risk of cancer than smoking. (!)   Would love to hear an official rebuttal to that.  Or proof on either side.  Certainly makes the space radiation threat seem trivial.

You should read this thread on the topic.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30480.0

My opinion is that the radiation risk is wildly overestimated based on old assumptions that are not supported by recent research. But those old assumptions are still the official state of things and so are used by NASA and Zubrin.


I think I would summarize it as: astronauts can be killed from radiation from solar flares- as in dead in few days.
GCR is a long term risk. The risk from GCR can be made worst if you using wrong shielding.
So focus of radiation shielding on spacecraft should be to protect the crew from radiation of solar flares, [solar flare shelter] and the same shielding used should also reduce radiation from GCR [and certainly not make it worst]. And crew should sleep in solar flare shelter.
So part of shielding should hydrogen or compounds of hydrogen [like water]. Since a crew to Mars needs a lot of water, it's not much of a problem. Water, food, and waste can be designed to provide most of the shielding needed.
But you can't really block all the radiation of solar flare nor all the radiation from GCR, so it's matter of reducing the effects and allowing for
strongest solar flare protection. And btw, if protecting against strongest solar flare events- make sure any critical electronics will also survive it.

Bases should be designed to reduce exposure to GCR- if they significantly block GCR they will also protect against solar flare. Bases should concerned keeping the lifetime exposure to radiation as low as possible. When crew leave bases they going to get elevated levels of radiation. So better radiation protection of most of time in bases would allow crew more time outside the base over the total time of exploration.

It seems with NASA mission, crews face problem of getting too much of lifetime dose of radiation.
And in general, the best way to lower lifetime levels, is by getting to Mars as
fast as possible. Though I think the microgravity affects are more serious
problem with long trip times to Mars.
« Last Edit: 05/28/2013 07:19 am by gbaikie »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #17 on: 05/28/2013 07:12 am »
Though I think the microgravity affects are more serious problem with long trip times to Mars.

Robotbeat convinced me of this one.. the drugs and exercise regime are sufficient for the trip to Mars.

The chances that humans will have long term effects from living in Mars gravity are pretty high, but if you want to colonize Mars, that's something you're going to have to l live with anyway.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline gbaikie

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #18 on: 05/28/2013 07:49 am »
Though I think the microgravity affects are more serious problem with long trip times to Mars.

Robotbeat convinced me of this one.. the drugs and exercise regime are sufficient for the trip to Mars.
I have seen some stuff which is encouraging regarding drugs [and vitamins].
But have not heard any news of astronauts spending 7 months on ISS without adverse health effects. Just reduced effects and reduce effects
can part of variation of effects with different crew
And also the drugs have different affects on different people, but if crew truly have no ill effect from long periods in microgravity using drugs and exercise regime, then we could screen crew by first having spend 6 month on ISS.
And probably should screen for 3 month stays regardless of how effective drugs are.

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The chances that humans will have long term effects from living in Mars gravity are pretty high, but if you want to colonize Mars, that's something you're going to have to l live with anyway.
It seems drugs and exercise should better effect in 1/3 gee, than in microgravity.
I am fond ideas of improved ways to sleep as possible part of low gravity exercise regime- so don't sleep horizon.
Maybe hang by feet or just have bed at 45 degree angle. Or artificial gravity machines you sleep in.
« Last Edit: 05/29/2013 11:16 pm by gbaikie »

Offline cordwainer

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #19 on: 05/29/2013 07:46 pm »
Polypropylene and Polyethylene materials can be used to make lightweight radiation shielding that is effective even against cosmic radiation. Also a radiation shielded habitat for the colonists could be launched and land on Mars prior to their arrival. TransHab has a very good design for a lightweight inflatable space habitat. Throw some Martian soil over it keep it from blowing away and provide additional radiation protection and I think your astronauts would be alright as long as they don't stay out on the surface to long. Mars has a magnetic field and atmosphere albeit tenuous and is further away from the Sun so I think solar flares won't be a problem once there, cosmic radiation is even a problem here on Earth so you will probably want to send radiation detectors.

Offline gbaikie

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #20 on: 05/29/2013 10:57 pm »
Polypropylene and Polyethylene materials can be used to make lightweight radiation shielding that is effective even against cosmic radiation. Also a radiation shielded habitat for the colonists could be launched and land on Mars prior to their arrival. TransHab has a very good design for a lightweight inflatable space habitat. Throw some Martian soil over it keep it from blowing away and provide additional radiation protection and I think your astronauts would be alright as long as they don't stay out on the surface to long. Mars has a magnetic field and atmosphere albeit tenuous and is further away from the Sun so I think solar flares won't be a problem once there, cosmic radiation is even a problem here on Earth so you will probably want to send radiation detectors.

Solar flares do not follow Earth to Mars hohmann trajectories and can have high velocities.

"Coronal mass ejections reach velocities between 20km/s to 3200km/s with an average speed of 489km/s, based on SOHO/LASCO measurements between 1996 and 2003."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection

So average distance from sun of Earth 149.6 million km and Mars is 227.9, so difference of 78.3 million km.
At 489 km/sec it's a difference of 160122. 6 seconds.  44.4 Hours. Or 1.8 days.
It seems that slower [and likely weaker] solar flares could have bigger difference at Mars distance as compared to Earth distance but faster [and more deadly] coronal mass ejections are only going to be reduced by a small amount at Mars distance.
The added distance to Mars, does make Mars a smaller target.
Earth's orbital circumference is 939.5 million km. And Mars is 1431 million km. So, roughly, if there is 1 in 9 chance to hit Earth, it's 1 in 14 at Mars

Re Mars magnetic field:
"The dynamo theory of planetary magnetism indicates that Mars may have had a dipole moment of about one-tenth of Earth's when it was first formed (Schubert and Spohn, 1990)."
http://www-ssc.igpp.ucla.edu/personnel/russell/papers/mars_mag/

"Instead, scientists now think Mars lost its global magnetic field, which would have surrounded the entire planet the way Earth's does today, billions of years ago, allowing the water to disappear in another direction entirely. Without the protection of the magnetic field, much of the atmosphere dissipated into the vacuum of space. All that's left are patches of magnetic field, which create pockets of atmosphere."
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/space/moon-mars/what-happened-to-mars-atmosphere-15277534
Read more: What Happened to Mars' Atmosphere? - Popular Mechanics
Follow us: @PopMech on Twitter | popularmechanics on Facebook
Visit us at PopularMechanics.com

So Mars and Moon have similar magnetic fields but Mars atmosphere- particularly it's ionosphere adds some additional protection.
« Last Edit: 05/29/2013 11:04 pm by gbaikie »

Offline JulesVerneATV

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Re: Radiation on mars one trip
« Reply #21 on: 11/15/2025 11:25 am »
maybe worth a bump with Northern Lights , pretty pictures tending on social media of the Aurora amid the largest geomagnetic storm i


ISS astronauts take cover from radiation as solar storms spark auroras across the planet
https://www.space.com/space-exploration/international-space-station/iss-astronauts-take-cover-from-radiation-as-solar-storms-spark-auroras-across-the-planet

AUDIO: Aurora australis lights up sky over southern Australia
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-13/naus_solarflaresnr_1311/106004148

Effectiveness of Martian regolith as a radiation shield
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0032063322001039

The Mutant Wolves of Chernobyl Have Evolved to Survive Cancer
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/animals/a46799706/mutant-wolves-of-chernobyl/
In the shadow of nuclear disaster, these canines show remarkable resilience to the deadly disease.

These strange, hybrid Earth lifeforms could survive on Mars, new study hints
https://www.yahoo.com/news/strange-hybrid-earth-lifeforms-could-160000793.html


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