Quote from: Lee Jay on 09/18/2011 02:26 pmQuote from: Lee Jay on 09/17/2011 04:02 pm"As of Sept. 16, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 140 mi by 155 mi (225 km by 250 km). Wow...Heavens Above now lists it as 216 x 238 km, 56.9° (Epoch Sep 18).Heh just looked it up on Heavens Above too. Now that it is no longer cloudy. The next good pass over where I live is going to be the 25th. Looks like I might not get a chance to say good bye. Its is saying 0.9 mag though. It should be bright for anyone who can see it. Has anyone got a chance to see it lately?
Quote from: Lee Jay on 09/17/2011 04:02 pm"As of Sept. 16, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 140 mi by 155 mi (225 km by 250 km). Wow...Heavens Above now lists it as 216 x 238 km, 56.9° (Epoch Sep 18).
"As of Sept. 16, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 140 mi by 155 mi (225 km by 250 km).
UARS passes directly over me (87d) on Tuesday morning... sorta glad that pass isn't happening a few days later = :-o
Quote from: notsorandom on 09/18/2011 09:36 pmQuote from: Lee Jay on 09/18/2011 02:26 pmQuote from: Lee Jay on 09/17/2011 04:02 pm"As of Sept. 16, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 140 mi by 155 mi (225 km by 250 km). Wow...Heavens Above now lists it as 216 x 238 km, 56.9° (Epoch Sep 18).Heh just looked it up on Heavens Above too. Now that it is no longer cloudy. The next good pass over where I live is going to be the 25th. Looks like I might not get a chance to say good bye. Its is saying 0.9 mag though. It should be bright for anyone who can see it. Has anyone got a chance to see it lately?I saw it this morning at 6:02 am (Eastern US) from Michigan's Upper Peninsula.Heaven's Above perfectly nailed the times--appeared within just a second or two of prediction moving into the eastern sky. I couldn't check the predicted brightness of 0.7 mag b/c of a very bright moon overhead. But I can safely say it was bright enough to stand out!FWIW - perhaps a trick of the light, but I thought it flared for a moment brighter?...long, long, time lurker, first time poster!
Can someone decipher the 1:3200 casualty risk number that is being claimed? 1 out of every 3200 people on the planet getting hit seems a little tough to correlate...
Quote from: Lee Jay on 09/18/2011 02:26 pmQuote from: Lee Jay on 09/17/2011 04:02 pm"As of Sept. 16, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 140 mi by 155 mi (225 km by 250 km). Wow...Heavens Above now lists it as 216 x 238 km, 56.9° (Epoch Sep 18).211 x 232 km, 56.9° (Epoch Sep 19)Dropping like a rock!
Also gave odds of a piece hitting someone as one in 3200, which I thought were pretty high odds.
Quote from: Lee Jay on 09/18/2011 02:26 pmQuote from: Lee Jay on 09/17/2011 04:02 pm"As of Sept. 16, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 140 mi by 155 mi (225 km by 250 km). Wow...Heavens Above now lists it as 216 x 238 km, 56.9° (Epoch Sep 18).211 x 232 km, 56.9° (Epoch Sep 19)
Apogee is dropping faster than perigee. Odd that that confusing orbital mechanics stuff actually works....
Tell me it ain't so, NASA, that you can at least narrow it down to, say, North America? More specifics would even be more encouraging.
Quote from: holosys on 09/20/2011 05:22 pmTell me it ain't so, NASA, that you can at least narrow it down to, say, North America? More specifics would even be more encouraging.Think of it as trying to forecast weather a month in advance. As predicted time of reentry becomes closer, the actual ground area will become more constrained. The uncertainty is still too high at this point.