Poll

Which vehicle/spacecraft will be next to carry crew to orbit from the US?

F9/Dragon
269 (83.5%)
AtlasV/CST100
18 (5.6%)
AtlasV/DreamChaser
16 (5%)
F9/DreamChaser
3 (0.9%)
F9/CST100
4 (1.2%)
SLS/Orion
6 (1.9%)
Delta IV/Orion
6 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 322

Voting closed: 06/30/2014 11:24 pm


Author Topic: Which vehicle/spacecraft will be next to carry crew to orbit from the US?  (Read 70907 times)

Offline baldusi

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This is like reusability on CRS-1. They have zero experience, so plan and price for the known quantity. If you get the capability later on, it can be negotiated.

Offline Orbiter

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My guess, not a bet: Falcon 9 with Dragon on a manned 3-day flight in early-2016.
« Last Edit: 02/23/2014 07:51 pm by Orbiter »
KSC Engineer, astronomer, rocket photographer.

Online Ike17055

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What is the likelihood or at least possibility that all three contenders will eventually fly? It is admittedly high speculation at this point, but i personally can see a POSSIBLE scenario where Boeing gets full funding for capsule (seen as the "safe" choice) in the near term and DC gets a partial award to continue development as the next generation and additional capability vehicle. DC presses ahead with additional private and European partnerships because of its exciting design.  SpaceX of course proceeds on crewed Dragon without NASA crew  for now, maybe working with other private partners, but takes the lead in future cargo resupply and eventually ends up providing the LV for Boeing due to cost advantages once it has more flight history on 9.1.1 -- thus becoming the most profitable and still leading edge provider of private space capability by forging a new business model for future space endeavors..
Again, just a scenario that appears to have some feasibility. Please refrain from the amazing people crapping on this conjecture and arm waving in favor if your preferred vehicle. This is admittedly a scenario. I am curious if others see opportunities for a three-way win for the major contenders and what that may look like in other possible scenarios.

Offline vt_hokie

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My optimism for DC definitely increased with the news of the Atlas V 2016 unmanned orbital launch.  Is Sierra Nevada the only one with an actual crewed vehicle already under construction at this stage? 
« Last Edit: 02/23/2014 10:53 pm by vt_hokie »

Offline Krevsin

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My optimism for DC definitely increased with the news of the Atlas V 2016 unmanned orbital launch.  Is Sierra Nevada the only one with an actual crewed vehicle already under construction at this stage?
Nope, Boeing and SpaceX seem to be well underway with the construction of their respective manned spacecraft.

Offline vt_hokie

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I certainly hope they all get a shot at orbital test flights at least then.  Nothing worse than cancelling a program after you've already started building the vehicles!
« Last Edit: 02/24/2014 06:47 am by vt_hokie »

Offline Robotbeat

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We have 4 different domestic crew-capable spacecraft being actually built right now. That's pretty crazy, when you think about it.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Krevsin

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In its own way, it's sort of beautiful. Even if it has the potential of not turning out as well as I'd like it to.

Offline douglas100

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We have 4 different domestic crew-capable spacecraft being actually built right now. That's pretty crazy, when you think about it.

Yep. Never happened before. The nearest to this situation historically would be around 1963 or so, when both Gemini and Apollo were in development at the same time.
Douglas Clark

Offline dlapine

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It practically brings a tear to my eye that our reasonable discussion is about which human rated LV/combo will launch first, rather than will we have one at all.   :'(

Maybe this Commercial Crew program wasn't such a bad idea...

Anyways, Dragoncrew on F9 for me.

Offline vulture4

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Keep in mind that SpaceX accepts considerably more risk, at least on unmanned flights. An F9 could blow up. Musk has said as much. This could delay the first human flight on F9 for years.  However my fingers are crossed.

Offline saliva_sweet

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Keep in mind that SpaceX accepts considerably more risk, at least on unmanned flights. An F9 could blow up. Musk has said as much. This could delay the first human flight on F9 for years.  However my fingers are crossed.

What is this based on? The only thing that could possibly construed that way was a Musk tweet before Cassiope that said something like: this is a very new and different configuration so there's a significant risk of failiure. That's a statement of fact before the first flight of a new rocket. Very different from "my rockets may blow up, but I'm fine with that"

Offline bilbo

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 Were getting close!!! My bet, CST-100, Dragon

Offline wannamoonbase

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Were getting close!!! My bet, CST-100, Dragon

My bet is CST-100 and Dreamchaser.

My wish is Dragon and Dreamchaser.

Boeing is just too big and knows the game better than anyone.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline Thorny

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Yep. Never happened before. The nearest to this situation historically would be around 1963 or so, when both Gemini and Apollo were in development at the same time.

Five, counting the Lunar Module, X-15 and X-20.

Offline Rifleman

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Yep. Never happened before. The nearest to this situation historically would be around 1963 or so, when both Gemini and Apollo were in development at the same time.

Five, counting the Lunar Module, X-15 and X-20.

If you count X-15, you need to count SpaceShipTwo as well. We are still tied up.

Offline baldusi

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Yep. Never happened before. The nearest to this situation historically would be around 1963 or so, when both Gemini and Apollo were in development at the same time.

Five, counting the Lunar Module, X-15 and X-20.

If you count X-15, you need to count SpaceShipTwo as well. We are still tied up.
If you count SpaceShipTwo you should also count XCOR's Lynx, still one up ;-)

Offline Rifleman

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Yep. Never happened before. The nearest to this situation historically would be around 1963 or so, when both Gemini and Apollo were in development at the same time.

Five, counting the Lunar Module, X-15 and X-20.

If you count X-15, you need to count SpaceShipTwo as well. We are still tied up.
If you count SpaceShipTwo you should also count XCOR's Lynx, still one up ;-)

I stand corrected :) I actually think Lynx is going to carry paying passengers first at this point, so it definitely gets counted.

Offline JasonAW3

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Were getting close!!! My bet, CST-100, Dragon

My bet is CST-100 and Dreamchaser.

My wish is Dragon and Dreamchaser.

Boeing is just too big and knows the game better than anyone.

Not too sure about that.

     Dragon has already gone through a number of test points, up to and including reentry and recovery.  CST-100 hasn't gone that far yet.

     Dreamchaser has gone through a number of changes, but overall is still the same airframe and has already been landing tested and is slated for full flight test.  I think that the CST-100 has had about as much testing as Dreamchaser has gone through.

    It looks to me that Dragon is likely, as it is flight proven hardware.

     Dreamchaser and CST-100 are on the bubble, but most likely Dreamchaser would be the winner, as it has some capibilities that both CST-100 and Dragon both lack.

     Problem is; CST-100 has the Lock-Mart/Boeing muscle behind it while Dreamchaser has Sierra Nevada.

     SpaceX and Elon are pretty much media darlings and Lock-Mart/Boeing shutting them out would be the PR equivelent of going into a petting zoo to kick puppies and kittens.  VERY bad for the public image.

     The loss of the CST-100 contract from NASA wouldn't cripple Lock-Mart/Boeing, as they both have more than enough contracts both for aircraft and rockets, to make up for the loss of Government CST-100 contracts.  (Commercial CST-100 contracts would still be avaiulable, but they'd have to start finding ways of dramitically cutting costs to remain competative).
My God!  It's full of universes!

Online oiorionsbelt

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F9/Dragon. From Pad 39A. (The Dream - December 2015.) (What I suspect - December 2016)


This seems the most likely and it was suggested before 39A was acquired by SpX  it is also the polls consensus.
 CST-100 hasn't even booked a ride. Anyone know the lead time for that?
DC is changing MPS although it has booked a ride.
What's the status on human rating for the Atlas V?

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