Author Topic: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions  (Read 20950 times)

Offline FinalFrontier

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I would like to first say congrats to Spacex on coming this far. Since the company began with high ambitions we have watched them struggle with early challenges and failures to finally mature into a true spaceflight company with a very bright future. Second, I would like to begin this thread to discuss predictions, challenges, and issues that will be faced by the falcon 9/dragon stack on this, the maiden flight of dragon and the second flight of Falcon 9.

Some challenges I think the rocket/spacecraft will face are:

1. As always, stage 2 separation: This didn't seem to be an issue on flight one, but as its an area of concern, I think we must always watch carefully.
2. Dragon and trunk sep from stage 2: Since its as yet un-flown, I think we will need to watch this event most carefully. I think that if there is going to be a problem on this flight, this is where it will occur, be it unsuccessful staging or incomplete staging.
3. Dragon trunk separation from the dragon capsule: I think this is also an area that is going to be an issue. But again, thats merely due to the fact that its as yet un-flown.

The purpose of this thread is to discuss everyone's thoughts/predictions relating to the upcoming flight. I look forward to the discussion :)
« Last Edit: 12/04/2010 06:54 pm by FinalFrontier »
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Offline Lars_J

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #1 on: 12/04/2010 07:00 pm »
I think it is pretty safe to say that reentry and parachute deployment are the highest risk elements (highest probability of failure) - all IMO of course.

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #2 on: 12/04/2010 07:03 pm »
Indeed. And I think thats also another prediction I neglected to consider: Will the parachutes on dragon function? Also, perhaps even more critical in the long term: will the recovery systems on falcon 9 stage one function properly and will that stage return successfully this time? On flight one, something, although I don't think it was ever discussed what, caused the stage to disintegrate.
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Offline Jim

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #3 on: 12/04/2010 07:03 pm »

2. Dragon and trunk sep from stage 2: Since its as yet un-flown, I think we will need to watch this event most carefully. I think that if there is going to be a problem on this flight, this is where it will occur, be it unsuccessful staging or incomplete staging.
3. Dragon trunk separation from the dragon capsule: I think this is also an area that is going to be an issue. But again, thats merely due to the fact that its as yet un-flown.

The purpose of this thread is to discuss everyone's thoughts/predictions relating to the upcoming flight. I look forward to the discussion :)


These are no areas of concern.  They are done all the time,  it is not the same as stage separation.  There are not clearance issues, no tipoff issues, etc

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #4 on: 12/04/2010 07:04 pm »

2. Dragon and trunk sep from stage 2: Since its as yet un-flown, I think we will need to watch this event most carefully. I think that if there is going to be a problem on this flight, this is where it will occur, be it unsuccessful staging or incomplete staging.
3. Dragon trunk separation from the dragon capsule: I think this is also an area that is going to be an issue. But again, thats merely due to the fact that its as yet un-flown.

The purpose of this thread is to discuss everyone's thoughts/predictions relating to the upcoming flight. I look forward to the discussion :)


These are no areas of concern.  They are done all the time,  it is not the same as stage separation.  There are not clearance issues, no tipoff issues, etc

But Jim, its a brand new vehicle. Are you really going to say that you think there is no chance of a problem occurring?
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Offline Jim

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #5 on: 12/04/2010 07:05 pm »
Not in these areas

Online ugordan

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #6 on: 12/04/2010 07:05 pm »
I predict that all areas and aspects of the flight, both F9 and Dragon will have to be watched carefully.

Some challenges I think the rocket/spacecraft will face are:

Seriously, what's with these "prediction threads"? Is it bragging rights? Cause they sound like "We know something will go wrong, let's guess what!"

I suggest a different exercise: Going back at the previous launch and its prediction thread and seeing who, if anyone, actually got the issues right.

There's more than enough things to go wrong with the still pretty unproven Falcon 9, not to mention the immensely more complicated Dragon that any such guessgame is an exercise in futility.
« Last Edit: 12/04/2010 07:08 pm by ugordan »

Offline Dappa

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #7 on: 12/04/2010 07:12 pm »
Well, engine 6 will probably fail halfway through. 8)

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #8 on: 12/04/2010 07:19 pm »
I predict that all areas and aspects of the flight, both F9 and Dragon will have to be watched carefully.

Some challenges I think the rocket/spacecraft will face are:

Seriously, what's with these "prediction threads"? Is it bragging rights? Cause they sound like "We know something will go wrong, let's guess what!"

I suggest a different exercise: Going back at the previous launch and its prediction thread and seeing who, if anyone, actually got the issues right.

There's more than enough things to go wrong with the still pretty unproven Falcon 9, not to mention the immensely more complicated Dragon that any such guessgame is an exercise in futility.

We had the same thread for the first flight and we were all (me especially) very happy to see that flight succeed. I am not trying to suggest "something WILL go wrong" or trying to make a failure "wish-cast thread" AT ALL. This is merely to discuss areas where the vehicle may face challenges and what those challenges might be, which is exactly what the thread regarding flight 1 was. This IS NOT a disaster wish-cast thread. Also the previous falcon prediction  thread had all kinds of predictions and even many of the reasonable ones (including mine) were wrong because the vehicle exceeded all expectations (which was great!). In lieu of the first flight's success I would expect this thread to be far more well reasoned. Perhaps I will change the name to: technical challenges that may be faced during COTS flight 1.
« Last Edit: 12/04/2010 07:21 pm by FinalFrontier »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #9 on: 12/04/2010 07:52 pm »
I think it is pretty safe to say that reentry and parachute deployment are the highest risk elements (highest probability of failure) - all IMO of course.
Agreed.

(Except RCS/navigation/software issues... those are also areas of risk)
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Online ugordan

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #10 on: 12/04/2010 08:03 pm »
I think it is pretty safe to say that reentry and parachute deployment are the highest risk elements (highest probability of failure) - all IMO of course.
Agreed.

(Except RCS/navigation/software issues... those are also areas of risk)

So basically, everything. And even that assuming the whole thing goes as far as SECO first.

You see where I'm getting at?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #11 on: 12/04/2010 08:05 pm »
I think it is pretty safe to say that reentry and parachute deployment are the highest risk elements (highest probability of failure) - all IMO of course.
Agreed.

(Except RCS/navigation/software issues... those are also areas of risk)

So basically, everything. ...
Touche. ;)
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Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #12 on: 12/04/2010 08:06 pm »
I think it is pretty safe to say that reentry and parachute deployment are the highest risk elements (highest probability of failure) - all IMO of course.
Agreed.

(Except RCS/navigation/software issues... those are also areas of risk)

So basically, everything. And even that assuming the whole thing goes as far as SECO first.

You see where I'm getting at?
I see what your insinuating and I disagree and once again re iterate that that is not the point purpose or reason behind what were doing here. This is supposed to be an educated discussion on possible difficulties faced by this vehicle and I do not see what he or other posters are suggesting as everything or a disaster wish-cast. I will not speak further on this subject.
MOVING ON:
I am curious to know Jim and all why you guys don;t think think the staging events have as much risk as other areas. I would have thought these were the biggest issues, can you explain?
« Last Edit: 12/04/2010 08:07 pm by FinalFrontier »
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Offline Jim

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #13 on: 12/04/2010 08:10 pm »
Spacecraft separation is not the same as staging. 

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #14 on: 12/04/2010 08:34 pm »
Spacecraft separation is not the same as staging. 

True. I thought it was consider a "staging event" however. I apologize for the incorrect terminology. I would like to discuss your thoughts on spacecraft sep.
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Offline SpacexULA

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #15 on: 12/04/2010 08:48 pm »
After all the static fires, test fires and flight 1 I don't really have any concerns with the rocket itself.

On the other hand almost everything to do with the Dragon is going to be new territory for SpaceX. 

I do wonder though, considering that the main point of Dragon is cargo delivery, if the in orbit control aspect of this mission goes perfectly, and they loose the capsule upon return, would that complete the COTS1 requirement for NASA, and would NASA still allow SpaceX to combine COTS2/3?
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Offline Jim

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #16 on: 12/04/2010 08:54 pm »
Spacecraft separation is not the same as staging. 

True. I thought it was consider a "staging event" however. I apologize for the incorrect terminology. I would like to discuss your thoughts on spacecraft sep.

It is not a  event during a  dynamic timeframe like ascent. Tipoff rates are not a concern since the Dragon  has a robust ACS.  Hardware is not nested like stages. 

Offline butters

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #17 on: 12/04/2010 10:00 pm »
The most likely anomaly remains pad abort, because SpaceX is still quite cautious about launch commit criteria on all nine engines -- as they should be given the stage of operational maturity and especially given the particularly "inexpensive" nature of pad abort in their launch processes.

I don't think that the public has been able to confirm one way or the other whether SpaceX will be using a single upper stage burn or two burns to insert Dragon into its intended separation orbit. MVac engine start and restart are probably higher-risk items than stage separation at this point.

We know that the M9 engine start sequence isn't exactly the most reliable process, and MVac start is if anything a bit more complicated, although one could assume that the engine cutoff parameters may be less cautious for MVac because the "cost" of an unnecessary cutoff is rather more substantial.We also did not see a successful MVac restart on flight 1, so that would be an unproven milestone on the critical path to Dragon separation if they are using a two-burn insertion profile.

Dragon failure modes are pretty much impossible to predict. It could be just about anything, large or small, hardware or software, inadequate tolerances or unforeseen interactions, silly or stupid or just plain unlucky. The universe of things that could possibly go wrong is rather large, and there is no flight history upon which to draw.

I'll only make one prediction: I just have a feeling that if Dragon reaches entry interface in a nominal configuration, then it will splash down nominally. I tend to believe that the heatshield and parachutes are likely to work.
« Last Edit: 12/04/2010 10:01 pm by butters »

Online ugordan

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #18 on: 12/04/2010 10:09 pm »
I don't think that the public has been able to confirm one way or the other whether SpaceX will be using a single upper stage burn or two burns to insert Dragon into its intended separation orbit.

Flight 1 mimicked the flight profile of this flight so it's a direct insertion. No reason to do it otherwise from either the risk or performance standpoint - the orbit is low enough.

Quote
I'll only make one prediction: I just have a feeling that if Dragon reaches entry interface in a nominal configuration, then it will splash down nominally. I tend to believe that the heatshield and parachutes are likely to work.

Agree.

Offline KSC Engineer

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #19 on: 12/04/2010 10:29 pm »
I think the biggest risk to SpaceX is not so much technical as technologies have advanced and space systems are much more understood in recent years especially as compared to say when the shuttle or even the Delta was designed not to mention this is a smaller rocket - so to me the risk is more in the category of political, congressional funding and long term need.

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