2. Dragon and trunk sep from stage 2: Since its as yet un-flown, I think we will need to watch this event most carefully. I think that if there is going to be a problem on this flight, this is where it will occur, be it unsuccessful staging or incomplete staging. 3. Dragon trunk separation from the dragon capsule: I think this is also an area that is going to be an issue. But again, thats merely due to the fact that its as yet un-flown. The purpose of this thread is to discuss everyone's thoughts/predictions relating to the upcoming flight. I look forward to the discussion
Quote from: FinalFrontier on 12/04/2010 06:54 pm2. Dragon and trunk sep from stage 2: Since its as yet un-flown, I think we will need to watch this event most carefully. I think that if there is going to be a problem on this flight, this is where it will occur, be it unsuccessful staging or incomplete staging. 3. Dragon trunk separation from the dragon capsule: I think this is also an area that is going to be an issue. But again, thats merely due to the fact that its as yet un-flown. The purpose of this thread is to discuss everyone's thoughts/predictions relating to the upcoming flight. I look forward to the discussion These are no areas of concern. They are done all the time, it is not the same as stage separation. There are not clearance issues, no tipoff issues, etc
Some challenges I think the rocket/spacecraft will face are:
I predict that all areas and aspects of the flight, both F9 and Dragon will have to be watched carefully.Quote from: FinalFrontier on 12/04/2010 06:54 pmSome challenges I think the rocket/spacecraft will face are:Seriously, what's with these "prediction threads"? Is it bragging rights? Cause they sound like "We know something will go wrong, let's guess what!"I suggest a different exercise: Going back at the previous launch and its prediction thread and seeing who, if anyone, actually got the issues right.There's more than enough things to go wrong with the still pretty unproven Falcon 9, not to mention the immensely more complicated Dragon that any such guessgame is an exercise in futility.
I think it is pretty safe to say that reentry and parachute deployment are the highest risk elements (highest probability of failure) - all IMO of course.
Quote from: Lars_J on 12/04/2010 07:00 pmI think it is pretty safe to say that reentry and parachute deployment are the highest risk elements (highest probability of failure) - all IMO of course.Agreed.(Except RCS/navigation/software issues... those are also areas of risk)
Quote from: Robotbeat on 12/04/2010 07:52 pmQuote from: Lars_J on 12/04/2010 07:00 pmI think it is pretty safe to say that reentry and parachute deployment are the highest risk elements (highest probability of failure) - all IMO of course.Agreed.(Except RCS/navigation/software issues... those are also areas of risk)So basically, everything. ...
Quote from: Robotbeat on 12/04/2010 07:52 pmQuote from: Lars_J on 12/04/2010 07:00 pmI think it is pretty safe to say that reentry and parachute deployment are the highest risk elements (highest probability of failure) - all IMO of course.Agreed.(Except RCS/navigation/software issues... those are also areas of risk)So basically, everything. And even that assuming the whole thing goes as far as SECO first. You see where I'm getting at?
Spacecraft separation is not the same as staging.
Quote from: Jim on 12/04/2010 08:10 pmSpacecraft separation is not the same as staging. True. I thought it was consider a "staging event" however. I apologize for the incorrect terminology. I would like to discuss your thoughts on spacecraft sep.
I don't think that the public has been able to confirm one way or the other whether SpaceX will be using a single upper stage burn or two burns to insert Dragon into its intended separation orbit.
I'll only make one prediction: I just have a feeling that if Dragon reaches entry interface in a nominal configuration, then it will splash down nominally. I tend to believe that the heatshield and parachutes are likely to work.