Author Topic: ULA orders more RD-180's  (Read 59551 times)

Offline RocketGoBoom

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #20 on: 12/27/2015 04:53 am »
Per CEO Tony Bruno, they are expecting in those future years that the number of annual DOD launches to decline from the current rate of 10-12 annually to closer to 5 launches per year.

(May 2015 quote)
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-lockheed-martin-boeing-ula-idUSKBN0O62M720150521

And they are expecting to only win 2 or 3 launches per year once there is competition for DOD launches.

Quote
Bruno said the number of U.S. military and intelligence satellite launches would likely drop in coming years to about five launches a year from 10 to 12, with the smaller number to be split among two or more rivals.

"We have to ... access commercial and civil opportunities. (We) cannot survive on two launches a year," Bruno told a lunch meeting hosted by the Washington Space Business Roundtable.

So ordering 20 additional RD-180's seems aggressive with the expected decline of the DOD market to only 5 per year. Or they have plans to be competitive elsewhere with the Atlas V prior to the Vulcan/BE-4 being available.
« Last Edit: 12/27/2015 04:56 am by RocketGoBoom »

Offline skater

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #21 on: 12/27/2015 07:27 pm »
I wish that ULA had not been given authority to nab these RD-180s.  I believe it would have been better for the company in the long run to have dealt with the lack of Energomash engines in some more clever way.  This result disappoints.

While I respect your desire for some creative pressure, I suspect that Boeing's and Lockheed Martin's response would be to call AJR up and ask if their old offer is still on the table.  I don't see ULA's parents being willing to tolerate the kind of uncertainty that a loss of RD-180s would create, nor are they willing to spend the money to bid Delta 4 as a loss leader (which might be against government bidding rules, anyway).  Also, I don't see a "Manhattan Project" effort for the BE-4 or AR-1 as something they'd commit the money to do, and any other temporary solution puts their launch reliability at risk.

I'd love to see some sort of solution cut the Gordian knot without additional RD-180 purchases, but I'm not sure that there is one.  Is there a particular solution you have in mind?
« Last Edit: 12/27/2015 07:27 pm by skater »

Offline Dante80

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #22 on: 12/27/2015 09:16 pm »
There was only one possible solution to "cut the knot" for the "no more RD-180" scenario. Guarantee some LV contracts for the Delta IV until Vulcan is up (while providing a firm timeline to stop doing so to both promote Vulcan moving forward asap and SpaceX not getting too angry about it). Essentially, moving the phase 1b/2 part of the EELV competition process further down the line.

The best solution imo would be to do what I posted above. Keep Atlas V running between 2018 and 2020 but place a firm mandate for the EELV program, stating that competition after 202X for DoD payloads would strictly be between certified vehicles/companies sporting only indigenous major components (like engines).

« Last Edit: 12/27/2015 09:16 pm by Dante80 »

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #23 on: 12/28/2015 05:02 am »
The RD-180 is a political and logistical trap for ULA that it must escape to survive long term. Unfortunately its current success comes from a form of "discounted" production of it as well. Neither RD-180 nor RL-10 nor Atlas in general may be effective enough for ULA to compete mid to long term, even given its formidable skills/experience/legacy/influence.

Its hard to control such critical propulsion system components when they are not in house, which might be even more exacerbated by having a rival that has them (and more) in house, and even more so with leverage that makes this lack consequential.

This results in an enormous distraction which is rooted in complex history and made even more opaque with a running financial battle with members of Congress over a decade. It is the net cost of this distraction that puts ULA's future at risk, not necessarily the lack of certain components.

Because the distraction can rob one of having a future at all.

Oh wait, this is too complex, need KISS. Just me get RD-180, there, all good.

add:

Largely irrelevant to the matter is the quality/performance. Look, Russians are russians, and russian kerolox obsession on ORSC is what it is. The issue is of control and what that means. The same that is faced with Ariane and indigenous production of engines - nothing more.

The RD-180's have been since inception with Atlas a multi decade stop-gap.

Europe with Soyuz ST and America with RD-180 have had ups and downs when evading the indigenous source issue. To differing degrees.

Focus on the hard task of evolving to multiple, concurrent launch service providers in an increasingly commercial launch dominated industry, where you have to withdraw the government fiats uniformly so that they can stand on their own. At the same time, technology shifts force restructuring of the providers and application of propulsion components, where the economics might require annual adaption in place of quarter century phase-out.
« Last Edit: 12/28/2015 07:40 pm by Space Ghost 1962 »

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #24 on: 12/28/2015 08:28 am »
If only the RD-180 was - say, JD-180 (Japan) or maybe even AD-180 (Australia :) ) then would that change things? Fantastic engine, I wish the USA had the ability to build it.
Space Ghost, what's your opinion on the engine itself and a hypothetical world where it isn't Russian - if you can humour me for a few minutes?

Offline clongton

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #25 on: 12/28/2015 12:37 pm »
It takes several years at best to construct a satellite after the award has been made. As of mid-2015 DoD had not awarded contracts for any new satellites, although several RFQ's are in the pipeline. That translates into a reduced demand for launch services in the coming years and explains the fewer available DoD launches per year to bid on that Tony Bruno was referring to. 20 RD-180 engines may actually be a little more than needed for anticipated bid wins. IMO the extras are likely insurance against slipped dates for the Vulcan.
« Last Edit: 12/28/2015 12:42 pm by clongton »
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Online edkyle99

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #26 on: 12/28/2015 01:55 pm »
Commercial Crew launches will help ULA's manifest.  I'm sure the company would also love to keep launching those cargo missions.  I wonder what ULA would need to offer to Orbital ATK to convince it to make the partnership permanent?

 - Ed Kyle

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #27 on: 12/28/2015 02:20 pm »
Well, they already gave Orbital ATK the Vulcan solid business...
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Offline skater

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #28 on: 12/28/2015 02:30 pm »
Space Ghost, what's your opinion on the engine itself and a hypothetical world where it isn't Russian - if you can humour me for a few minutes?

I'm not SG, but I'll weigh in.  The RD-180 is regarded by most people as a fantastic engine.  Incredibly high ISP for an RP-1/LOX engine, sized in the sweet spot for a launcher first stage engine, and has been very reliable on the Atlas V.  If it can be procured in a price that would allow a ULA launcher to be cost-competitive with the Falcon 9, without the political problems, there would be no reason to switch.  Alas, that last sentence is the sticking point - my limited understanding is that, even at the prices that the Russians can produce it, it is a bit expensive to allow head-to-head price competition with SX, and it is produced in a country with international politics that are problematic to the country of its prime customer.  Moving it to USA or somewhere else will make it even less price-competitive (which is why production was never moved to the USA, even though there was a provision in the purchase agreement).
« Last Edit: 12/28/2015 03:28 pm by skater »

Offline Prober

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #29 on: 12/28/2015 03:25 pm »
I wish that ULA had not been given authority to nab these RD-180s.  I believe it would have been better for the company in the long run to have dealt with the lack of Energomash engines in some more clever way.  This result disappoints.

 - Ed Kyle

Transition; ULA just returned to operating state when the stockpile was signed off by all parties.  Remember contracts are a two way street.
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Offline Rocket Science

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #30 on: 12/28/2015 03:45 pm »
It's like getting Ferrari engines at Hyundai prices... What's no to like... ;D
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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #31 on: 12/28/2015 04:02 pm »
If only the RD-180 was - say, JD-180 (Japan) or maybe even AD-180 (Australia :) ) then would that change things? Fantastic engine, I wish the USA had the ability to build it.

It is extremely difficult to recreate in our minds today the thinking of the researchers and decision-makers of the early 1990s. In part that's because we've almost totally forgotten about some things that seemed so incredibly important back then.

I attach here a pdf of the slides used in a briefing to Congressional staffers in 1994. It describes what DoD called their "Space Launch Modernization Plan." Of particular interest is the section starting on page 40 describing "option 2", which was selected and became EELV. I draw particular attention though to a few earlier places where Russian engine technology is mentioned.
In the "Facts of Life" section, on p. 25:
Quote
Foreign policy situation has created exploitable opportunities for international (especially Russian) cooperation

In the "Options" section:
The "Space Launch Technology Revitalization" slide (p. 35)
The "DoD/NASA technology coordination" slide (p. 36)

It's difficult to understand these outside the context. Flipping through the entire stack of slides might be worthwhile....
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Offline Kansan52

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #32 on: 12/28/2015 04:33 pm »
Memory says the ban was only for DoD launches. So Commercial and Commercial crew are not affected by this change.

Still relying on memory, ULA has stated that the Atlas V launch costs are being reduce because of efficiency improvements. Still, even after those improvements, the ULA will need the Vulcan to compete in the marketplace.

So, from ULA's own statements, using the RD-180s are stop gap.

Offline Prober

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #33 on: 12/28/2015 04:47 pm »
If only the RD-180 was - say, JD-180 (Japan) or maybe even AD-180 (Australia :) ) then would that change things? Fantastic engine, I wish the USA had the ability to build it.

It is extremely difficult to recreate in our minds today the thinking of the researchers and decision-makers of the early 1990s. In part that's because we've almost totally forgotten about some things that seemed so incredibly important back then.

I attach here a pdf of the slides used in a briefing to Congressional staffers in 1994. It describes what DoD called their "Space Launch Modernization Plan." Of particular interest is the section starting on page 40 describing "option 2", which was selected and became EELV. I draw particular attention though to a few earlier places where Russian engine technology is mentioned.
In the "Facts of Life" section, on p. 25:
Quote
Foreign policy situation has created exploitable opportunities for international (especially Russian) cooperation

In the "Options" section:
The "Space Launch Technology Revitalization" slide (p. 35)
The "DoD/NASA technology coordination" slide (p. 36)

It's difficult to understand these outside the context. Flipping through the entire stack of slides might be worthwhile....

good find, enjoy these look backs.
Page 25 is very interesting, Looking forward (history repeats?)

Too many providers-too much production capacity
Traditional providers unlikely to fund major modernization  (can u say AJR?)

Government demand is dominant, but launch rate is dropping (early 2020's)

Look at the payback (ROI) Page 59 forward

Edit add payback
« Last Edit: 12/28/2015 04:57 pm by Prober »
2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
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Online edkyle99

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #34 on: 04/05/2017 06:42 pm »
RD Amross "pretty confident" it will garner more RD-180 orders from ULA.

https://sputniknews.com/science/201704051052308344-rd180-russia-us/

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 04/05/2017 06:43 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline spacenut

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #35 on: 04/05/2017 07:39 pm »
I don't see how they can keep getting the RD-180's in today's political climate.  Dem's hate the Russians, Some Rep's hate them also.  Shades of the old Cold War.  I still don't understand why thy don't replumb either Atlas or a 5m core with at least 5 H-1/RS-27's.  Yes, they are not as efficient, but they are American made.  Delta II used them for years.  Tooling was still available.  One reason the Merlin is so cheap, is that it is made with 3d printed parts.  Maybe Orbital should invest in some 3d printers to cut manufacturing costs. 

Online edkyle99

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #36 on: 04/05/2017 08:07 pm »
  I still don't understand why thy don't replumb either Atlas or a 5m core with at least 5 H-1/RS-27's. 
RS-27A has been out of production for more than a decade now.  Its test stand is dismantled and the site sold off.

 - Ed Kyle

Offline Star One

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #37 on: 04/05/2017 08:18 pm »
RD Amross "pretty confident" it will garner more RD-180 orders from ULA.

https://sputniknews.com/science/201704051052308344-rd180-russia-us/

 - Ed Kyle

Are ULA determined to stock up ill will for themselves down the line from the politicians.

Offline baldusi

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #38 on: 04/05/2017 11:37 pm »
Well, at least for ISS, they are free to order as many as they wish. And both CST-100 and DreamChaser will use it. Also, I understand that NASA's payload and other commercial are free to use it. I'm pretty sure that those Category A payloads will fly Atlas V at least until 2025.

Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: ULA orders more RD-180's
« Reply #39 on: 04/05/2017 11:42 pm »
"Hi; my name is ULA - thanks for having me here tonight to hear my story. The truth is; I'm an RD-180 addict..." :( ;)
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