Poll

How close to the center of the landing barge will the first stage land?

Failed landing burn
3 (0.8%)
Landing on water surface more than 1 mile from barge
20 (5.3%)
Landing on water surface closer than 1 mile from barge
52 (13.7%)
Landing partially or wholly on barge but not on center
153 (40.3%)
Landings on the center of the barge (center of stage inside center circle)
152 (40%)

Total Members Voted: 380

Voting closed: 12/08/2014 01:53 am


Author Topic: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing  (Read 42808 times)

Online rcoppola

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #20 on: 12/04/2014 05:24 pm »
Off-center by 40ft to 60ft to either the left or right lengthwise.

Either left or right lengthwise?  That is nearly polit-speak :-)

Fore, Aft, Port, Starboard...

I predict it will end up with one leg just ouside of the inner circle.  Slightly aft, slightly portside of the "X".
Ha, ha. Lengthwise meaning Fore or Aft. The fact it has no discernible bow or stern took my mind to a different place of visual measurements...
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Offline ClayJar

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #21 on: 12/04/2014 06:05 pm »
Off-center by 40ft to 60ft to either the left or right lengthwise.

Either left or right lengthwise?  That is nearly polit-speak :-)

Fore, Aft, Port, Starboard...

I predict it will end up with one leg just ouside of the inner circle.  Slightly aft, slightly portside of the "X".
If you nail the rotation angle of the legs against the reference of the "cross" marked by the gaps in the circle, is that bonus or merely tiebreaker?  Since we need a way to specify, let's say angle to the first leg clockwise from due forward with a range, then, from zero degrees (inclusive) to 90 degrees (exclusive).

So, I'll say that it will land with the legs spanning the center point (specifically: a circle drawn through the four foot pads will enclose the center point) with a rotation angle of 42 degrees (clockwise) from "+".  I figure if you don't have enough information to know you can win, you may as well lose with unambiguous specificity. ;D

Offline rpapo

We're getting a little ridiculous, I think.  You might as well start taking bets on a dartboard:



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Offline Lar

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #23 on: 12/04/2014 06:54 pm »
Triple 20 and yes, this is silly.
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Offline Doesitfloat

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #24 on: 12/04/2014 06:59 pm »
"X" Marks the spot.   :)

Offline Nomadd

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #25 on: 12/04/2014 07:06 pm »
 Maybe we need three threads so Brits can use dartboard analogies Yanks can use football an everybody else can use the other football (soccer).
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Offline edkyle99

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #26 on: 12/04/2014 07:21 pm »
First time flying this configuration, with the grid fins at speed and altitude.  There have to be unknowns.  Looking at ICBM/IRBM RV accuracy results over the years, I view the odds for this test favoring a "miss".  That doesn't discount the possibility of a success, but not landing seems to me more probable than landing on this first attempt.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 12/04/2014 07:23 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline PreferToLurk

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #27 on: 12/04/2014 07:30 pm »
Voted for bull's-eye.  We have seen large and accurate divert maneuvers from grasshopper / F9R Dev1.  I think the stage either misses by a large margin due to unexpected behavior with the grid finds or gets close enough and lands dead center.  The optimist in me prevents me from voting for complete miss, so bull's-eye it is. :P

Offline aceshigh

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #28 on: 12/04/2014 07:46 pm »
I predict a landing one meter off the bull's eye target. Only for them to discover the rocket landed millimetrically at the center of the barge. It was the bull's eye target that was painted off-center. :)

Offline Tass

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #29 on: 12/04/2014 07:47 pm »
"X" Marks the spot.   :)

The space-X marks the spot :)

Offline JasonAW3

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #30 on: 12/04/2014 08:04 pm »
Maybe we need three threads so Brits can use dartboard analogies Yanks can use football an everybody else can use the other football (soccer).

Forgot about basketball and hockey...
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Offline JasonAW3

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #31 on: 12/04/2014 08:09 pm »
If they have both the barge and the rocket communicating with each other, and both are adjusting position dynamically, then they should hit dead center of the ring.
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Offline deruch

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #32 on: 12/04/2014 08:53 pm »
Off-center by 40ft to 60ft to either the left or right lengthwise.

If we want to do this right, give your guesses in polar coordinates.  i.e. (distance, theta) from origin; where origin is center of X logo, oriented so that the X is right way up.

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Offline CameronD

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #33 on: 12/04/2014 10:07 pm »
I predict a landing one meter off the bull's eye target. Only for them to discover the rocket landed millimetrically at the center of the barge. It was the bull's eye target that was painted off-center. :)

I predict they'll land a little further out from that... and then sneak a crew on board to push it across to the middle of the X at which time the video link will be miraculously re-established.  :P   ;D

With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine - however, this is not necessarily a good idea. It is hard to be sure where they are
going to land, and it could be dangerous sitting under them as they fly overhead.

Offline go4mars

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #34 on: 12/04/2014 10:09 pm »
Pinpoint precision would seem to be critical path for stacking MCT on the BFR on it's eventual barge.  I'll hazard a guess; immaculate control.
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Offline inventodoc

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #35 on: 12/04/2014 10:59 pm »
I'd like it to land right in the center and think it can do so.  I voted for the platform and not directly in center accounting for 3m off center from the platform + another 3-5m for the rocket.  Depending on which direction the GPS errors add up, we could get from pinpoint to 8m off or so in any direction.  (all speculation)

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #36 on: 12/04/2014 11:36 pm »
I voted for partially or wholly bot not dead center. I believe that hitting dead center will be difficult because of wave action. I hope that I am wrong, though.

Offline mvpel

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #37 on: 12/04/2014 11:57 pm »
I predict within 0.5 meters of dead center on both axes of the deck, with the tips of the legs aligned with the gaps in the yellow circle.

I base this on the last F9R-Dev1 video with the Rocket Cam - the tips of the legs were exactly aligned with the edge of the concrete pad after rotating over 90 degrees, and then returning to exactly 90 degrees, in mid-air.
« Last Edit: 12/08/2014 07:55 pm by mvpel »
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Offline NovaSilisko

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #38 on: 12/05/2014 12:02 am »
I predict it will land Close to the Edge, Round by the Corner.  ;)

Offline Lar

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Re: Predict accuracy of upcoming F9 attempted barge landing
« Reply #39 on: 12/05/2014 12:13 am »
I predict it will land Close to the Edge, Round by the Corner.  ;)
Yes!

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