Poll

How many orbital flights will the Falcon 9 & Heavy family do before retirement?

<=50
1 (0.9%)
51-100
4 (3.6%)
101-150
5 (4.5%)
151-200
15 (13.5%)
201-250
21 (18.9%)
251-300
20 (18%)
300-400
14 (12.6%)
401-500
12 (10.8%)
501-600
4 (3.6%)
601-700
5 (4.5%)
701-800
2 (1.8%)
801-900
0 (0%)
901-1000
0 (0%)
>1000
8 (7.2%)

Total Members Voted: 111

Voting closed: 11/22/2017 05:29 pm


Author Topic: How many orbital flights will the Falcon 9 & Heavy family do before retirement?  (Read 26899 times)

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

I'm bored this weekend, so here's a poll for you all.  ;)

This is probably a pretty interesting question regarding the future usage of the F9 family and the longevity of their usages. I have been interested in keep tracking the different machines that bring objects to orbit and it is interesting to see that they can be grouped into large families based on their heritage of the rockets' first stage.

For ease of discussion, a "rocket family" is defined as follows (adopting the convention that Jonathan McDowell et al. uses): rockets that share the same heritage of engines and basic stage structure/dimensions on the first stage. Hence all Titan rockets (except perhaps the Titan I, never used for launching things to orbit) share the same origin for the 1st (and in fact also the 2nd) stage, despite the Gemini Titan II and the Titan IV being of vastly different sizes and should be regarded as from the same family. The same is for Thor-Agena, Thor-Able and all Delta versions up to the Delta III, where the base diameter of the 1st stage is still the same after more than 60 years (plus all uses kerosene powered engines). The Delta IV would be in a separate family.

Hence for this poll:
1. All orbit aimed flights of the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy versions currently/planned to be used will be counted.
2. If a "Falcon 9 with Raptor powered 2nd stage" is developed and flies later, flights of it will also be counted. On the other hand, flights of a new rocket with Raptor powered first stage topped by the existing Falcon 9 2nd stage will not be counted.
3. Failures of the F9 after leaving the ground and aiming at orbit will be counted.
4. Failures of the F9 before leaving the ground will not be counted.
5. Flights of F9-based rockets not aiming at orbit will not be counted (Grasshopper flights, Dragon 2 in flight abort test etc.).

After counting, I found that only 12 of these families have more than 100 flights aimed at orbit and beyond, with only 8 at 200+, 5 at 300+ and 2 - the R-7 and the Thor-Delta - at 500+.

With so many people gleaming at how the Falcon 9 and Heavy will be used frequently over the next years (especially when supporting the operations of the SpaceX LEO comsat constellation), I was wondering if you all think the Falcon 9 et al. will be used so frequently that it would be the DC-3/Model T of the Earth to orbit transportation? Specifically, voting on this poll will allow the discussion of these questions:

Will it last for decades to come (as with the iconic R-7/Soyuz or the Green Delta), or will it be superseded after just a few years in service?
Will it find some usage and have enough market share that will allow it to fly weekly or even more frequent flights?
Will reuse of the 1st stage allows it to fly more frequently?

Unfortunately I suspect that the question will not be answered for decades to come (which might disappoint many, as I suspect Korolev will had he saw the R-7 still flying by 2017), so no prizes if you get the answer right.  ;)

Discuss away!  :)
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery.

They currently sit at 42 successes, should be 47 by the end of the year. So starting with ~50, adding 30 in 2018 should be a safe bet barring failures. Then my prediction goes wild, if Block 5 reuse and Starlink proceed according to the plan I can see 100-150 flights between 2019 and 2020. We are at ~200, and BFR is close to/has already performed its first flight. In 2021 SpaceX starlink launches move to BFR and many costumers follow the trend: Falcon 9 is close to being retired, with only a few conservative costumers requesting it while SX pushes its new rocket. I predict 'only' about 50 flights till its EoL, in the first half of the decade, hence my vote of ~250 total flights.
« Last Edit: 10/22/2017 06:41 pm by AbuSimbel »
Failure is not only an option, it's the only way to learn.
"Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the custody of fire" - Gustav Mahler

Offline nacnud

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2691
  • Liked: 981
  • Likes Given: 348
That seems a reasonable guess to me, so if assuming F9 Block 5 can have about 10 reuses then that gives 25 more first stages to be made before significant space in Hawthorn can be given over to BFR, unless they find space elsewhere.

Offline jebbo

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 954
  • Cambridge, UK
  • Liked: 623
  • Likes Given: 310
I'm guessing BFR will slip, so an introduction to service around 2022. Assuming an average of 40 launches a year until then and a similar five year ramp down, I'd bet on >400

---- Tony

Offline high road

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1684
  • Europe
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 152
About 30 flights per year on average (less in the coming years, more later on), five years before first flight, three to work out any remaining issues and two to convince enough customers to use the oversized, less tested system to be able to abandon the old line without losing too many customers.

That's 300+ flights.

Not including sweeping design changes to the upper stage that would extend the development phase, or developing the first stage first, which would have the opposite effect.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56663
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 93603
  • Likes Given: 43607
Changed my mind several times but eventually plumped for 251 - 300.

I believe BFR will (ultimately) succeed and be close to the capabilities claimed (for payload, reusability and price).

Yes BFR will be later than Elon says (usual time dilation factor) but I don’t see the transition from F9/FH taking years once BFR does start flying. Assuming no failures once BFR is in service (failures during development & envelope expansion are expected), I think market confidence will be relatively quick, 18 months or so, with only a few flights booked years in advance deciding not to transition. Similar to what we’re already seeing with flight proven boosters, with substantial BFR enabled price reductions being a major attraction.

Online mme

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1510
  • Santa Barbara, CA, USA, Earth, Solar System, Milky Way Galaxy, Virgo Supercluster
  • Liked: 2034
  • Likes Given: 5383
I went with 300-400, basically 300 more launches of F9/FH combined. Hopefully that's too pessimistic but I'm assuming a solid 8-10 year run. I think SX is serious about BFR/BFS and I think they will pursue it aggressively.  I also think that they will run into more challenges than they anticipate, especially with the carbon fibre tankage, airframe, and ECLSS.  Also you need to deal with the possibility of a spectacular failure.

My guess is early LEO missions for the constellation by 2026 and the first Mars Cargo missions in 2028 or 2030.

Since they are opening a new manufacturing site for BFR I also think they'll find a way to keep F9 manufacturing at a minimal replenishment rate.  Some stock piling too, but not the stock-pile and shut down the line approach. [*]

Of source Elon is was smarter and has way more information than I do.  I just tend to be a schedule pessimist and eventual outcome optimist.

[*] I've never done real manufacturing. I'm not sure how feasible it is to have people split time 80/20 on different production lines using different techniques, equipment and materials.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline rockets4life97

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 803
  • Liked: 539
  • Likes Given: 367
I went for 600+. I think Falcon 9 ends up being way more durable then expected. A single core will be re-used 50 times. With the number of cores SpaceX is planning on building, they'll simply keep flying re-used for 10 years at a high flight rate.

Offline ZachS09

  • Space Savant
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8581
  • Roanoke, TX
  • Liked: 2481
  • Likes Given: 2146
I went for 600+. I think Falcon 9 ends up being way more durable then expected. A single core will be re-used 50 times. With the number of cores SpaceX is planning on building, they'll simply keep flying re-used for 10 years at a high flight rate.

Same here. I think that one day, Falcon 9 will get to the point where it endures so much aerodynamic stresses and can be reused between 40 and 50 times.
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Offline Ixian77

  • Member
  • Posts: 36
  • US
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 30
>1000.

Thinking like the original poster, F9 = Model T/VW.

My hope is Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, et. al., could lease 'depleted' cores and use them into the 2040's.

How much easier would it be on the old cores to launch and return along the equator?
Not saying this margin (if it exists) would validate their continued use, but if the equatorial nations Universities could do research with old F9's, why not?

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Interesting to see the current distribution of polls.  ;)

For comparison, here's the full list of "rocket families" that, if I counted correctly, that have flown and aimed at orbit and beyond for 50 times or more in history, counted up till today:

1. R-7/Soyuz (1957 - ) - 1817 [1]
2. Thor-Delta (1958 - 2018) - 608 [2]
3. R-14/Kosmos-3M (1964 - 2010) - 461
4. Proton (1965 - ) - 413 [3]
5. Atlas (1958 - 2005) - 325 [4]
6. R-36/Tsyklon (1965 - ) - 280 [5]
7. DF-5/Long March 2/3/4 (1973 -) - 261 [6]
8. Titan (1964 - 2005) - 219 [7]
9. R-12/Kosmos-2 (1961 - 1977) - 164
10. Ariane 1-4 (1979 - 2003) - 144
11. Space Shuttle (1981 - 2011) - 135
12. Scout (1960 - 1994) - 100 [8]
13. Ariane 5 (1996 - ) - 95
14. Zenit (1985 - ) - 83
15. Atlas V (2002 - ) - 74

[1] Total no. flights 1875 (note that the number may be off by a few depending on whether some of the pad accidents are counted)
[2] Total no. flights 721; includes 342 "Classical Delta" and 185 Thor-Agena; Delta IV counted separately
[3] 1 sub-orbital launch in 1970 not counted
[4] Total no. flights 582; includes 148 Atlas-Centaur and 108 Atlas-Agena; Atlas V counted separately
[5] Includes R-36M based Dnepr
[6] Includes related FB-1 but Long March 1 (DF-4 based) and Long March 5 et al. not included
[7] Total no. flights 368; includes 24 orbital Titan II /72 Titan III without SRB/ 84 Titan III with SRB/39 Titan IV
[8] Total no. flights 125

Source: Ed Kyle's site / Jonathan McDowell's database
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery.

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13508
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11896
  • Likes Given: 11178
(mod) I tweaked the poll to make the votes not visible till you voted, and to have it expire 31 days from the start, not a year. Both are typical here. If the Penguin doesn't like that he'll PM me I am sure. :)

(fan) I voted >1000 mostly on whim. I can see the idea of F9s eventually being reused by other parties. This doesn't mean I don't have confidence in Musk's plans
« Last Edit: 10/24/2017 06:44 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline intrepidpursuit

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 721
  • Orlando, FL
  • Liked: 561
  • Likes Given: 405
I voted 267.

I think it will take a bit of time both for BFR to get operation and for the market to shift to using it. SpaceX seems to think they'll have 800 satellites up by 2019, so none of those will be on BFR and the Falcon manifest will be hardware limited until BFR is fully operational. Once they start booking commercial sats on BFR, it will still take time before they can transition sensitive payloads or ISS missions over, so we'll see a long taper.

I don't see anyone else operating used Falcon stages. New upper stages would have to be built and if SpaceX can operate BFR cheaper than Falcon 9, I doubt anyone else will be able to operate Falcon 9 more cheaply. Would be cool to see a future contract to convert them to boosters for the next congressional launcher or something though.

Previous - 28
2017 - 19
2018 - 30
2019 - 40
2020 - 50
2021 - 50
2022 - 25
2023 - 15
2024 - 10

Offline Zed_Noir

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5490
  • Canada
  • Liked: 1813
  • Likes Given: 1302
....
I don't see anyone else operating used Falcon stages. New upper stages would have to be built and if SpaceX can operate BFR cheaper than Falcon 9, I doubt anyone else will be able to operate Falcon 9 more cheaply. Would be cool to see a future contract to convert them to boosters for the next congressional launcher or something though.
....

As long as there is a supply of upper stages. There might be a market for nostalgia rides to LEO in a vantage Falcon 9/Dragon 2 stack for deep pocket tourists. For the richer tourists a swing around the Moon with the Dragon 2 on top of a Falcon Heavy.  :)

Offline vapour_nudge

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 485
  • Australia
  • Liked: 266
  • Likes Given: 338
Just a tad over 250. I'd like to see a poll on how many more failures of the F9 family we'll see. This would be an indicator of confidence levels. It'd also be interesting to see our view on the other existing & emerging vehicles like New Glenn, Vulcan, Ariane 6 & Atlas V. Will Atlas V reach 100 in total and so on. So many polls
« Last Edit: 10/25/2017 10:48 pm by vapour_nudge »

Offline Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6607
  • Liked: 4740
  • Likes Given: 5774
Voted 400-500
My impression is that it will take a LOT longer to get BFR online.
However the main issue is they can't develop it like Falcon. 
They can't piggyback tests on revenue runs nearly for free. and lose vehicles left and right for a while until it works.
That and the SpaceX time dilation factor
Falcon 9 seems pretty serviceable in the meantime, so all seems good.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Patchouli

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4490
  • Liked: 254
  • Likes Given: 457
Same here I voted 400 to 500 as well esp considering F9 is reliable enough for NRO payloads.

« Last Edit: 10/25/2017 11:41 pm by Patchouli »

Offline mikelepage

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1287
  • ExodusSpaceSystems.com
  • Perth, Australia
  • Liked: 903
  • Likes Given: 1430
I went with 251-300.

Because as far as we know,
1) every one of those requires a new second stage (so I don't see non-SpaceX entities using F9 family rockets). 
2) SpaceX isn't going to/can't reduce the price more than 80% if they are still building new second stages.
3) BFR/BFS, even if it slips by 5 years, is likely to be ready (and make F9 family obsolete) 10 years from now.

I tend to think these next ten years, even if F9 family could do a higher flight rate than once a fortnight, is going to be limited to the existing customer base while the new space companies/payloads are still ramping up.

Offline AncientU

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6257
  • Liked: 4164
  • Likes Given: 6077
>1000.  Why build a rocket with 100 uses possible if you are only using it one tenth of that?  A couple dozen Block 5 first stages will probably be built over the next couple years -- attrition will reduce the number getting to 100 uses, but even if a quarter get there, and the rest are spread out in some s-shaped distribution function, we'll be over 1000 flights.

Easy to say the Falcon family will be retired, but difficult to throw away paid-for boosters, which will remain the least expensive ride to space or nearly so for a decade, with tens of flights left in them.
« Last Edit: 11/02/2017 03:02 pm by AncientU »
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56663
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 93603
  • Likes Given: 43607
Easy to say the Falcon family will be retired, but difficult to throw away paid-for boosters, which will remain the least expensive ride to space or nearly so for a decade, with tens of flights left in them.

IF BFR and BFS work as advertised then they will be cheaper than F9 & FH. I don’t think Elon/SpaceX will have any difficulty throwing the boosters away at that point.

Offline the_other_Doug

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3009
  • Minneapolis, MN
  • Liked: 2194
  • Likes Given: 4618
Easy to say the Falcon family will be retired, but difficult to throw away paid-for boosters, which will remain the least expensive ride to space or nearly so for a decade, with tens of flights left in them.

IF BFR and BFS work as advertised then they will be cheaper than F9 & FH. I don’t think Elon/SpaceX will have any difficulty throwing the boosters away at that point.

I dunno -- when United Airlines got rid of all of their 727's, they didn't scrap most of them.  They sold them off to smaller airlines, especially in smaller countries.  As long as they were still in decent shape, most of them continued to fly for other operators.

I mean, who knows?  Maybe by the time it comes for SpaceX to retire them, someone else may want to fly them for a while, for their own programs... though I bet ITAR would keep SpaceX from selling to non-American buyers.
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline zappatosin

  • Member
  • Posts: 8
  • Atlanta
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 37
If one expects that "flight proven" 2nd stages will NOT be launched on the falcon boosters, the real question seems to be how many expendable upper stages SpaceX intends to produce.

For Elon's personal mission to Mars or Luna to succeed, I estimate that SpaceX should expend less than 500 upper stages. As a fan, I picked an optimistic 200-250 flights based on a market that buys EELV class launches until the BFR renders the Falcons obsolete.
« Last Edit: 11/13/2017 02:39 pm by zappatosin »

Offline Paul451

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3691
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2645
  • Likes Given: 2288
Easy to say the Falcon family will be retired, but difficult to throw away paid-for boosters, which will remain the least expensive ride to space or nearly so for a decade, with tens of flights left in them.
IF BFR and BFS work as advertised then they will be cheaper than F9 & FH. I don’t think Elon/SpaceX will have any difficulty throwing the boosters away at that point.
I dunno -- when United Airlines got rid of all of their 727's, they didn't scrap most of them.  They sold them off to smaller airlines,

United Airlines wasn't an aircraft manufacturer. The airline model doesn't make much sense for orbital launches.

An early aircraft manufacturer in, say, upstate New York, building and self-operating 50mi-range aircraft out of a local airfield, cannot service the rest of the state, let alone other states. And unless they had a fixed contract from someone else, they would have difficulty assessing whether it was even commercially viable to go into another market; not just sending another aircraft, but hiring and training a local pilot, maybe even building another airfield. Much better to just sell planes to wannabe local pilots, whether they were flying for fun or commercially. Eventually as ranges extended, routes stabilised, expansion and mergers between operators created true "airlines". By then, the industry's model had been established.

Obvious, none of that applies to the launch market. SpaceX can launch any F9/FH-compatible payload in the world from their own US launch sites, with the exception of foreign government payloads that have national security concerns or are intended to prop up local aerospace companies. (In the latter case, they aren't going to use US-built hardware.)
« Last Edit: 12/02/2017 01:09 pm by Paul451 »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56663
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 93603
  • Likes Given: 43607
My emphasis:

Elon: On track to double launch rate this year from last year.

If all goes to plan this year, SpaceX will launch more missions than any other country this year.

Elon recapping success of SpaceX today.

Once we started landing booster, success rate has been high.

Goals with Block 5
- Really it's the 6th iteration of Falcon 9
- This will be last major version.
- There will be small improvements/minor changes from here for manufacturing and reusability.
- Up to 300 more flights of Falcon 9 Block 5 before retirement.

"Block is s strange word we took from the Russians."

Offline Steve G

  • Regular
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 603
  • Ottawa, ON
    • Stephen H Garrity
  • Liked: 646
  • Likes Given: 56
SLS will keep flying until New Glenn and BFR have been flight proven. There is no guarantee that either will work. So NASA won't abandon a LV so close to making its debut flight. If BFR works as advertised, it will make every LV in the world obsolete.

Offline envy887

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8210
  • Liked: 6922
  • Likes Given: 2975
Musk said 300 or maybe more.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56663
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 93603
  • Likes Given: 43607
Musk said 300 or maybe more.

Yes, with thanks to @theinternetftw:

Transcript of the call:

https://gist.github.com/theinternetftw/5ba82bd5f4099934fa0556b9d09c123e

The actual quote was:

Quote from: Elon Musk
We think of probably winding up with something on the order of 300 flights, maybe more, of Falcon 9 Block 5 before retirement.
« Last Edit: 05/11/2018 08:51 am by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56663
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 93603
  • Likes Given: 43607
Time for an update on this poll.

The Falcon family has recently passed 230 orbital flights. Starship is clearly going to take a while longer (12, 18, 24 months?) to start eating into Falcon flight numbers. So looks like this poll has quite a way to run yet.

Offline Zed_Noir

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5490
  • Canada
  • Liked: 1813
  • Likes Given: 1302
Time for an update on this poll.

The Falcon family has recently passed 230 orbital flights. Starship is clearly going to take a while longer (12, 18, 24 months?) to start eating into Falcon flight numbers. So looks like this poll has quite a way to run yet.

After the Starship is in service, it might not affected the Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy flight rate for at least a couple of years. Basically adding another 80 to 100 launches per year before the Falcon rocket family will only fly Dragons to the ISS and high energy missions.

So the question is will the Falcon family reach 500 launches before retirement?

Offline TrevorMonty

Time for an update on this poll.

The Falcon family has recently passed 230 orbital flights. Starship is clearly going to take a while longer (12, 18, 24 months?) to start eating into Falcon flight numbers. So looks like this poll has quite a way to run yet.
I'm going say 500 as its another 170 before SS takes over Starlink launches. Can't see rest of F9 customers rushing to use SS as for most of payloads F9 is better match. Going be long time before crew ever stop using Dragon and risk their lives on LV without LAS.

Offline Paul451

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3691
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2645
  • Likes Given: 2288
After the Starship is in service, it might not affected the Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy flight rate for at least a couple of years.

SpaceX will want to move Starlink launches to SS almost immediately. Current work on the "Pez dispenser" and the larger next-gen Starlink satellites strongly hints at that. That alone cuts a bit over half of F9 launches.

It also gives them a flight-rate that proves the new vehicle for the clients who've shown a willingness to risk being early-adopters before; ditto the constellation builders, like OneWeb, where cost-is-king. After that, it depends on non-refuelled capacity to GEO and the failure-rate of early launches.



Aside: At currently 60+ launches per year. Half Starlink. Move those to SS and you've got ~30 remaining F9/FH launcher per year. If not a single other payload moves to (the presumably cheaper) Starship, that still means about 8 years to get to 500 F9/FH launches. Which does not seem reasonable to me.

[edit: That's not to say that F9 won't be operating in 8 years, especially for Dragon/ISS. Just that I can't see them launching 30+ F9 launches per year, so the flight-rate will be in exponential/log recline towards a final value well below 500.]
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 02:56 am by Paul451 »

Offline TrevorMonty

After the Starship is in service, it might not affected the Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy flight rate for at least a couple of years.

SpaceX will want to move Starlink launches to SS almost immediately. Current work on the "Pez dispenser" and the larger next-gen Starlink satellites strongly hints at that. That alone cuts a bit over half of F9 launches.

It also gives them a flight-rate that proves the new vehicle for the clients who've shown a willingness to risk being early-adopters before; ditto the constellation builders, like OneWeb, where cost-is-king. After that, it depends on non-refuelled capacity to GEO and the failure-rate of early launches.



Aside: At currently 60+ launches per year. Half Starlink. Move those to SS and you've got ~30 remaining F9/FH launcher per year. If not a single other payload moves to (the presumably cheaper) Starship, that still means about 8 years to get to 500 F9/FH launches. Which does not seem reasonable to me.

[edit: That's not to say that F9 won't be operating in 8 years, especially for Dragon/ISS. Just that I can't see them launching 30+ F9 launches per year, so the flight-rate will be in exponential/log recline towards a final value well below 500.]
Already 33 F9 launches in first 5 months so 80-100 is realistic for 2023.

Offline Zed_Noir

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5490
  • Canada
  • Liked: 1813
  • Likes Given: 1302
After the Starship is in service, it might not affected the Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy flight rate for at least a couple of years.

SpaceX will want to move Starlink launches to SS almost immediately. Current work on the "Pez dispenser" and the larger next-gen Starlink satellites strongly hints at that. That alone cuts a bit over half of F9 launches.

It also gives them a flight-rate that proves the new vehicle for the clients who've shown a willingness to risk being early-adopters before; ditto the constellation builders, like OneWeb, where cost-is-king. After that, it depends on non-refuelled capacity to GEO and the failure-rate of early launches.



Aside: At currently 60+ launches per year. Half Starlink. Move those to SS and you've got ~30 remaining F9/FH launcher per year. If not a single other payload moves to (the presumably cheaper) Starship, that still means about 8 years to get to 500 F9/FH launches. Which does not seem reasonable to me.

[edit: That's not to say that F9 won't be operating in 8 years, especially for Dragon/ISS. Just that I can't see them launching 30+ F9 launches per year, so the flight-rate will be in exponential/log recline towards a final value well below 500.]
Already 33 F9 launches in first 5 months so 80-100 is realistic for 2023.
Presuming Starship deploying Starlink V2 starting around mid 2024. Since they will need developmental Starship flights for the Artemis variants as well.

Doubtful there will be more than half a dozen Starlink V2 flights in 2024 and maybe a dozen flights in 2025 with Starship. Think SpaceX will surge launch the ver 2 mini and the older ver 1.5 during 2024 and early 2025 with Falcon 9 to fill up and replenished the constellation. It depends on if the Falcon 9 cores don't need actual refurbishment once they gone over 25 flights and the launch availability of Starships for Starlink flights during 2024 & 2025.

There is a possibility that Falcon family might have about 415 launches before ending launches of Starlinks on them. So might get near or over the 500 launches before retiring.

Offline Paul451

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3691
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2645
  • Likes Given: 2288
Already 33 F9 launches in first 5 months

Around half of which are Starlink. Hence the first payloads moved to Starship.

Offline TrevorMonty

Already 33 F9 launches in first 5 months

Around half of which are Starlink. Hence the first payloads moved to Starship.
SS is still a while away from being operational.

Offline rpapo

Already 33 F9 launches in first 5 months

Around half of which are Starlink. Hence the first payloads moved to Starship.
SS is still a while away from being operational.
"Minimum Viable Product".  They will start using Starship for Starlink as soon as they possibly can.  In part because it is a good way to work out the kinks in Starship.

Though, from where I sit, I don't think they will make serious inroads into Falcon until at least 2024H2.
Following the space program since before Apollo 8.

Offline Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39464
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 25599
  • Likes Given: 12246
Trying to launch the full 42000 2-ton Starlink satellites with Falcon 9 would cost SpaceX $100 Billion more than if they can use Starship to launch it, even with conservative assumptions of Starship launch costs ($150/kg) and optimistic assumptions for Falcon 9 launch costs ($1500/kg).


It would be over 5000 Falcon 9 launches LOL

(It’s actually fairly likely SpaceX will launch Falcon over 300 more times at this point.)
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 04:35 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Vahe231991

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1687
  • 11 Canyon Terrace
  • Liked: 465
  • Likes Given: 199
Already 33 F9 launches in first 5 months

Around half of which are Starlink. Hence the first payloads moved to Starship.
SS is still a while away from being operational.
That's right. The Falcon Heavy has had an extremely low annual launch cadence compared to the Falcon 9, and Starship is unique among SpaceX SLVs in having the capability to take mankind to the Moon or Mars.

Offline AmigaClone

Already 33 F9 launches in first 5 months

Around half of which are Starlink. Hence the first payloads moved to Starship.
SS is still a while away from being operational.
"Minimum Viable Product".  They will start using Starship for Starlink as soon as they possibly can.  In part because it is a good way to work out the kinks in Starship.

Though, from where I sit, I don't think they will make serious inroads into Falcon until at least 2024H2.

Personally I suspect that between half and two thirds of Starship missions prior to the launch of Artemis III will be either general testing of the Starship stack and/or related to SpaceX's commitments relating to NASA's HLS program. While some of the testing might include Starlink deployment,  I agree that those will not greatly impact SpaceX's Falcon 9 family launch cadence for several years.

Offline Paul451

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3691
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2645
  • Likes Given: 2288
[edit: Just to clarify, this is only partially a reply to Vahe231991. It's more about clarifying my take on the general subject. Hopefully they don't feel attacked by a 1000 line response to their two line comment...]

Already 33 F9 launches in first 5 months
Around half of which are Starlink. Hence the first payloads moved to Starship.
SS is still a while away from being operational.
That's right. The Falcon Heavy has had an extremely low annual launch cadence compared to the Falcon 9, and Starship is unique among SpaceX SLVs in having the capability to take mankind to the Moon or Mars.

There's no comparison between FH and SS.

FH is always going to be more expensive to launch than F9 (given that it's a slightly customised F9 plus two extra boosters.) So if you don't need the capacity of FH, you are obviously not going to use it.

However, SS is intended to be cheaper than F9. Not just in $/kg, but $/flight. That means that even if you don't need the ridiculous payload capacity of Starship, it is still the cheaper option. The only reason to stick with F9 is the unproven nature of SS.

SpaceX can make the decision to move Starlink launches to SS and wear the higher risk. And it's in their nature to do that during the test campaign. [I suspect as soon as they get a single successful launch (not necessarily a successful recovery), they will be chomping at the bit to switch over.]

And that was my point.

There's currently ~30 non-Starlink F9 launches per year. 2018 it was around 20/yr. 50% over 4 years. That's not a fast enough increase to change the maths. ~45-50 payloads/yr by 2027?

And much of the increase seems to be payloads that can most easily switch over to SS. Such as the "Transporter" ride-share missions, multi-satellite constellation launches, etc. Not to mention SpaceX's Starlink-derived military contract, which, like Starlink itself, can be easily switched over to SS.

The entire operational history of F9 has ~230 launches. ~270 more launches to reach 500. Currently there's ~30 non-Starlink launches per year. Even assuming solid non-Starlink growth, it's still at least 5yrs to reach 270 launches.

But...

You can't assume that the growth in non-Starlink launches will be on F9/FH.

Like Starlink, any customer who is cost sensitive is going to switch to Starship as soon as it reaches their internal threshold of risk-vs-cost. Over time, the number of customers that will use F9 over Starship will decline. And that'll especially be the case with new customers, new payloads.

In other words, you don't just need SpaceX launch rate to increase, you need it to increase amongst the specific set of customers that are committed to F9.

It's not enough to say "Starship won't be operational before 2024/2025" or "F9 flightrate is increasing", you need to show where the customers are coming from who can't or won't switch to Starship over the next decade.

Unless Starship is delayed by more than 5 years, I can't see how F9/FH can reach 500 launches. There just physically aren't enough payloads left.
« Last Edit: 06/02/2023 01:58 pm by Paul451 »

Offline M.E.T.

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2465
  • Liked: 3071
  • Likes Given: 543
I think I previously guestimated around 300 lifetime F9 launches.

Assuming Starship takes over Starlink launches fully in 2025, (although I think it will start doing so halfway through 2024), and assuming 90 launches this year, of which about 40 are non-Starlink, that takes us to about 280 by end of this year, and about 370 by end of 2024. And then about 30-40 non-Starlink launches a year on F9 in 2025 and maybe 2026. So I think we are looking to max out in the region of 500 launches eventually.

But that may only be reached by around 2028/2029 as F9 launches rapidly taper off from 2025 onwards.

Edit

Spent another 10 minutes pondering on it and now I think 450.
« Last Edit: 06/01/2023 03:53 pm by M.E.T. »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56663
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 93603
  • Likes Given: 43607
By the end of this month the majority of people who voted (myself included) will be proved wrong and quite likely by the end of this year that will increase to over 2/3. By the end of next year I think SpaceX will be at well over 500, with many more Falcon flights still to go.

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13508
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11896
  • Likes Given: 11178
By the end of this month the majority of people who voted (myself included) will be proved wrong and quite likely by the end of this year that will increase to over 2/3. By the end of next year I think SpaceX will be at well over 500, with many more Falcon flights still to go.
indeed!

Perhaps we need a new version of this poll, since the original is quite old...
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

By the end of this month the majority of people who voted (myself included) will be proved wrong and quite likely by the end of this year that will increase to over 2/3. By the end of next year I think SpaceX will be at well over 500, with many more Falcon flights still to go.
indeed!

Perhaps we need a new version of this poll, since the original is quite old...

Hmm...as the creator of this poll, maybe I'll do it at the end of this year.
(I didn't vote at all back then BTW - though I probably did the right thing by comparing it with the R-7 series)
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56663
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 93603
  • Likes Given: 43607
By the end of this month the majority of people who voted (myself included) will be proved wrong and quite likely by the end of this year that will increase to over 2/3. By the end of next year I think SpaceX will be at well over 500, with many more Falcon flights still to go.

11 months later and just F9 is over 400 orbital flights now. F9+FH could be near - or conceivably exceed - 600 by the end of 2025.

7 years on from when this poll was created and I still don’t have any real idea what the final Falcon family count will be. Transition from Falcon to Starship still seems quite uncertain, although I’d hope/expect it to become clear during 2025.

Offline AmigaClone

By the end of this month the majority of people who voted (myself included) will be proved wrong and quite likely by the end of this year that will increase to over 2/3. By the end of next year I think SpaceX will be at well over 500, with many more Falcon flights still to go.

11 months later and just F9 is over 400 orbital flights now. F9+FH could be near - or conceivably exceed - 600 by the end of 2025.

7 years on from when this poll was created and I still don’t have any real idea what the final Falcon family count will be. Transition from Falcon to Starship still seems quite uncertain, although I’d hope/expect it to become clear during 2025.

I personally suspect the transition between Falcon and Starship will become clearer - but the question on how fast the transition will occur will remain unanswered.

The predictions by SpaceX leaders besides Musk for the number of launches in 2026 might give us a hint at that time.

Personally, I suspect the >1000 launches might be a fairly safe bet.

Tags: SpaceX Starship 
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0