Author Topic: RED threshold late notice conjunction threat to ISS - Crew may evac into Soyuz  (Read 51442 times)

Offline generic_handle_42

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I believe it was Leroy Cain who said after the STS-93 ascent, "We don't need any more of these!"
-Nick-

Offline stockman

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phew!!  I guess they will have to break out the emergency Vodka once they are back inside... :) - quite an exciting issue...
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Offline shuttlefan

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Object missed :) Go to egress Soyuz.

When will we know by how far?

Online DaveS

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I believe it was Leroy Cain who said after the STS-93 ascent, "We don't need any more of these!"
It was John Shannon. He was the Ascent FD for that flight.
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Offline generic_handle_42

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I believe it was Leroy Cain who said after the STS-93 ascent, "We don't need any more of these!"
It was John Shannon. He was the Ascent FD for that flight.

Thank you sir!  I stand corrected!
-Nick-

Offline KEdward5

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I believe it was Leroy Cain who said after the STS-93 ascent, "We don't need any more of these!"
It was John Shannon. He was the Ascent FD for that flight.

Thank you sir!  I stand corrected!

The "Yikes, you bet, concur, we don't need any more of these" video clip is the third attachment on this post,
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=9944.msg189521#msg189521

"STS-93L2VideoECOs.wmv"

Offline generic_handle_42

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Yep, seen the video, just misplaced the voice!

Fincke just got done asking the ground for "details" later.  He didn't sound impressed!
-Nick-

Offline ChrisGebhardt

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I believe it was Leroy Cain who said after the STS-93 ascent, "We don't need any more of these!"

So say we all!


Man... I didn't need this excitment today.

Offline NavySpaceFan

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Anyone know the actual distance at Closest Point of Approach?  I'd log this down as a drill, a very realistic drill.
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Offline Citabria

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Anyone know the actual distance at Closest Point of Approach?

And the relative velocity?

Is velocity a factor in determining the RED condition?

Offline ChrisGebhardt

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Anyone know the actual distance at Closest Point of Approach?


Is velocity a factor in determining the RED condition?

I would very much assume yes. This is how I'm thinking about this. An object travelling at 17,500mph in a southwest to northeast orbital trajectory collides with another object travelling 17,500mph in a northwest to southeast orbit. Those two objects would hit at a 90-degree angle.

An object travelling at 17,500mph in a southwest to northeast orbit colildes with another object travelling at 17,550mph that is also in a southwest to northeast orbit.

In these case, while any direct hit of any kind would not be good, I would say that it's much different being hit side-on by an object travelling at full-force 17,500mph than being hit by an object at 50mph.

(Basically, it's like being t-boned by a semi-truck travelling much faster than you are and travelling in a different direction v. having a fender-bender when someone hits the back of your car.)

Also, based on my line of reason (which someone please correct if it's wrong) is that orbital trajectories also play a factor.
« Last Edit: 03/12/2009 04:37 pm by ChrisGebhardt »

Offline blazotron

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Just saw this amusing text on CNN:

"The debris was too close for the space station to move out of the way, so the station's 18 crew members were temporarily evacuated to a the station's Soyuz TMA-13 capsule, NASA said. From there, the crew could have undocked from the space station if the situation had become dangerous."

http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/03/12/space.station.evacuation/

That's one hell of a soyuz.

(edited to add link)
« Last Edit: 03/12/2009 04:35 pm by blazotron »

Online ugordan

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Is velocity a factor in determining the RED condition?

I don't think so, even very small angles between their geocentric velocity vectors (assuming both objects are travelling at say 7.5 km/s) give dangerously large relative velocities.

Say a 2 degree difference in their orbital planes would give about 260 m/s impact speed if my math is correct.
« Last Edit: 03/12/2009 04:37 pm by ugordan »

Offline Jorge

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Anyone have the guidelines for what make a conjunction 'Red' vs medium or low?

The RED threshold is defined solely as probability of collision (Pc) > 10^-4. (Flight Rule B4-101 paragraph A.4).
JRF

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Y'know, I remember waaayyy back in pre-ISS days, during the countdown to the launch of the FCB, I heard someone (I think it was on BBC news) seriously suggesting that a permanently-manned orbital outpost would need a laser turret fitted to it to disintegrate possibly dangerous debris. 

I'm not laughing so hard right now, I don't mind saying. :o

Just out of curiosity, how many of these near-evacs have been needed during the ISS's entire lifetime? I can't remember any others off-hand but, as has just been abundantly proven, these things seem to go under the Mainstream Media's radar unnoticed.
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Offline Colds7ream

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Just saw this amusing text on CNN:

"The debris was too close for the space station to move out of the way, so the station's 18 crew members were temporarily evacuated to a the station's Soyuz TMA-13 capsule, NASA said. From there, the crew could have undocked from the space station if the situation had become dangerous."

http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/03/12/space.station.evacuation/

That's one hell of a soyuz.

Seriously, would it be possible, just once, for these people to check their facts before publishing? :-(

Online ugordan

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Just saw this amusing text on CNN:

Seriously, would it be possible, just once, for these people to check their facts before publishing? :-(

There's something about CNN and the number 18 when reporting space - remember the "Columbia broke up while going 18 times the speed of light" text...?

Offline mmeijeri

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Seriously, would it be possible, just once, for these people to check their facts before publishing? :-(

Here's another gem from the BBC:

"Nasa spokesman Josh Byerly said the debris was was 2.54cm (about one-third of an inch) in width. "
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7940431.stm
Pro-tip: you don't have to be a jerk if someone doesn't agree with your theories

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Here's another gem from the BBC:

"Nasa spokesman Josh Byerly said the debris was was 2.54cm (about one-third of an inch) in width. "
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7940431.stm

Please, God, let this be a symptom of the BBC's recently-acquired inability to use imperial units of measurements, not the actual words of the NASA spokesman. :(

That aside, one inch width at the sort of relative velocities we're talking about here would be like shooting the ISS with an anti-aircraft round at close range.  It would have blown a fist-sized hole through the hull and made a mess of the interior of any module it hit.  A close shave indeed.
« Last Edit: 03/12/2009 04:59 pm by Ben the Space Brit »
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Offline astrobrian

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Fox news had it at a 7 member crew, I never knew the station was such a busy place with comers and goers  3, 7, 18 , who knew  ;D

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