Author Topic: SpaceX F9 : BlueBird Block 2 FM 2 : CCSFS SLC-40 : NET January 2026  (Read 38605 times)

Offline raptorx2

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Re: SpaceX F9 : BlueBird Block 2 FM 2 : Florida : NET Q1 2026
« Reply #20 on: 11/19/2025 12:10 am »
SpaceX just filed for an extension of the Payload Processing Experimental license for BlueBird 2 with date beginning Feb. 1, 2026
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=146615&RequestTimeout=1000

Offline AndrewM

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Re: SpaceX F9 : BlueBird Block 2 FM 2 : Florida : NET Q1 2026
« Reply #21 on: 11/22/2025 11:27 pm »
BlueBird 6's launch (LVM-3) has been set for December 15th and AST continues to say they expect a new launch every 1-2 months. They haven't stated that BlueBird 7 has shipped yet so I'd say mid January is the earliest this launch could occur at this point.

AST SpaceMobile Announces BlueBird 6 Launch Date, the Largest Commercial Communications Array Ever Deployed in Low Earth Orbit [Nov. 21]

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AST SpaceMobile, Inc. ("AST SpaceMobile") (NASDAQ: ASTS), the company building the first and only space-based cellular broadband network accessible directly by everyday smartphones, designed for both commercial and government applications, today announced BlueBird 6, a U.S. licensed satellite, is scheduled to launch on December 15th from the Satish Dhawan Space Center in India.

BlueBird 6 is the first of AST SpaceMobile’s next-generation satellites. When launched, it will feature the largest commercial phased array in low Earth orbit at nearly 2,400 square feet. This represents a 3.5 times increase in size over BlueBirds 1-5 and supports 10 times the data capacity.

"Our next-generation satellites will soon enable ubiquitous cellular broadband coverage direct to everyday smartphones from space," said Abel Avellan, Founder, Chairman and CEO of AST SpaceMobile. "As an American company, we are proud to demonstrate U.S. leadership in space innovation while pioneering the next era of global connectivity."

AST SpaceMobile is accelerating production with 40 satellites equivalent of microns on track to be completed by early 2026. The company expects five orbital launches by the end of Q1 2026, with launches occurring every one to two months on average to reach 45–60 satellites launched by the end of 2026 and support continuous coverage across the United States and select markets. This ramp-up is supported by nearly 500,000 square feet of manufacturing and operations facilities worldwide, including roughly 400,000 square feet in the United States, and a global workforce of nearly 1,800 people, the overwhelming majority of whom are based in the U.S.

The exact timing of orbital launches is subject to change based on a number of factors, including launch readiness of the launch provider, weather conditions, and other factors, many of which are beyond our control. Members of the public will be able to watch a live broadcast on the launch day on AST SpaceMobile's YouTube channel.

Offline AndrewM

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Re: SpaceX F9 : BlueBird Block 2 FM 2 : Florida : NET Q1 2026
« Reply #22 on: 12/05/2025 02:29 am »
AST Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation [Nov 10]

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BlueBird 7 expected to ship to Cape Canaveral in November with orbital launch anticipated shortly thereafter.


Well November is over and they haven't stated that BlueBird 7 has shipped yet.

AST SpaceMobile modified the target orbit of FM-2 from 520km*53° to 460km*50°, giving the following reasons. However, I believe that if they are still using F9 to launch FM-2 satellites independently, the following reasons seem unreasonable.
https://fccprod.servicenowservices.com/ibfs?id=ibfs_application_summary&number=SAT-MOD-20251205-00370
« Last Edit: 12/06/2025 02:28 am by Starship_SpaceX »

Offline StraumliBlight

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Re: SpaceX F9 : BlueBird Block 2 FM 2 : Florida : NET Q1 2026
« Reply #24 on: 12/07/2025 01:17 am »
AST SpaceMobile modified the target orbit of FM-2 from 520km*53° to 460km*50°, giving the following reasons. However, I believe that if they are still using F9 to launch FM-2 satellites independently, the following reasons seem unreasonable.
https://fccprod.servicenowservices.com/ibfs?id=ibfs_application_summary&number=SAT-MOD-20251205-00370

Silverbird launch calculator:

Quote
F9 Payload (kg)   Orbit (km)   Recovery
20,146460 x 460, 50°   None
19,726520 x 520, 53°None
15,256460 x 460, 50°ASDS
14,907520 x 520, 53°ASDS
12,807460 x 460, 50°LZ-2
12,497520 x 520, 53°LZ-2
« Last Edit: 12/07/2025 01:20 am by StraumliBlight »

The F9 could not possibly pose a capacity bottleneck for launching the FM-2, and the 53° tilt angle could not be a launch limitation. Therefore, I cannot understand their reasoning. Perhaps they want to share a launch with a payload at a 50° tilt angle, but as far as I know, such a payload does not exist.

Offline sstli2

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Re: SpaceX F9 : BlueBird Block 2 FM 2 : Florida : NET Q1 2026
« Reply #26 on: 12/07/2025 02:51 am »
Are we sure it's still launching on Falcon 9?

Edit: This post on X suggests it's to accommodate RTLS:
https://twitter.com/CatSE___ApeX___/status/1997294601095594015#m
« Last Edit: 12/07/2025 03:23 am by sstli2 »

The F9 can still launch a 10-ton payload to a target area of ​​520km x 53° under RTLS conditions, while the FM1 only weighs 6.4 tons. The FM2's mass is not expected to be significantly different. Therefore, my thinking is that the problem shouldn't lie with the rocket itself.

Offline StraumliBlight

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SAT-AMD-20251211-00379 [Dec 11]

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FM-2 MOD AMD

Narrative and schedule download requires FCC account.

Offline sstli2

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SAT-AMD-20251211-00379 [Dec 11]

Quote
FM-2 MOD AMD

Narrative and schedule download requires FCC account.

I didn't realize this, but turns out you can just create one. I recently did, and I am attaching the documents here:

« Last Edit: 12/12/2025 07:06 pm by sstli2 »

Offline AndrewM

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With BlueBird 6 targeting December 23rd, a 45-day cadence would put BlueBird 7 on February 6th. Will be nice to get confirmation of it shipping to the Cape.

https://twitter.com/AST_SpaceMobile/status/2000354990695821423?s=20 [Dec. 14]

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On December 6, BlueBird 6 was encapsulated and timely handed off to the launcher for liftoff. The exact December launch date will be announced in the coming days.

This launch marks the beginning of our launch campaign, with a launch every forty-five days on average during 2026.

Stay tuned. Very excited for what is ahead.
#ASTSpaceMobile #BlueBird6 #NextGenBlueBird

Offline sstli2

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I would reiterate the "on average" modifier of that cadence. We know FM2 is ready, and the recent FCC notice did use the language "accelerated launch slot [...] as early as January 2026". FM3+ are of a new design (carbon composite), and I don't recall hearing much about the exact state of their manufacture. If they were ready, we'd hear more about them. They also would likely go up multiple-at-a-time due to their lighter weight.

That is all to say, I think January 2026 is still very much in play for FM2, and that the 45-day average cadence is probably going to be weighted by a longer gap between FM2 and FM3+.

Now, as a counterpoint, AST did also say 5 orbital launches by March 2026, but even the most fervent members of the "SpaceMob" aren't putting too much stock in that statement, and AST management is starting to build a rather dubious track record of overzealous projections.

Offline AndrewM

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I would reiterate the "on average" modifier of that cadence. We know FM2 is ready, and the recent FCC notice did use the language "accelerated launch slot [...] as early as January 2026". FM3+ are of a new design (carbon composite), and I don't recall hearing much about the exact state of their manufacture. If they were ready, we'd hear more about them. They also would likely go up multiple-at-a-time due to their lighter weight.

That is all to say, I think January 2026 is still very much in play for FM2, and that the 45-day average cadence is probably going to be weighted by a longer gap between FM2 and FM3+.

Now, as a counterpoint, AST did also say 5 orbital launches by March 2026, but even the most fervent members of the "SpaceMob" aren't putting too much stock in that statement, and AST management is starting to build a rather dubious track record of overzealous projections.

I fully agree with what you are saying and that's also why I didn't update the thread header to February. I just wanted to mention it. I'd expect late January for FM2 now.

In the seventh week of November, ASTS announced the shipment of FM2, but the post didn't seem to mention SpaceX or F9. However, since the satellite was still being sent to Cape Canaveral, it appears it was still launched by an F9.

https://twitter.com/AST_SpaceMobile/status/2002752882454540649


[Tony - Updated the link to allow view of post inside the forum]
« Last Edit: 12/21/2025 04:10 pm by catdlr »

Online Bean Kenobi

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In the seventh week of November

???
This was just a joke, as they previously stated the satellite would ship in November. ;)

Online zubenelgenubi

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Cross-post:
https://www.launchphotography.com/Launch_Viewing_Guide.html
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UPDATED DECEMBER 21, 2025
...
FALCON 9
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch a Starlink batch from pad 40 on January 3. Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches. A Falcon 9 will launch BlueBird 7 for AST SpaceMobile from pad 40 on January TBD.
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Offline AndrewM

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https://twitter.com/AST_SpaceMobile/status/2005702510938353683?s=20 [Dec. 29]

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BlueBird 7 has arrived in Florida!

Next step is to start integration with the launch vehicle 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Following the successful launch of BlueBird 6, BlueBird 7’s arrival keeps us on track as we scale production and launch operations – bringing us closer to delivering full broadband connectivity directly to everyday smartphones, from space 🌎📶📱

More to come.
#ASTSpaceMobile #BlueBird7 #NextGenBlueBird

The tweet still does not specify whether the launch vehicle is an F9.

Offline sstli2

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The tweet still does not specify whether the launch vehicle is an F9.

Indeed, and it is interesting they chose to remain ambiguous on that front.

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