1. I think that will be a result of cheaper launch costs - right now the launch is a significant part of the cost of a "cheap" science mission (especially since they aren't launching them on Falcon 9). If you could make it $10 million in exchange for much less reliability, that may not be worth it if the launch is $100 million plus. 2. But if the launches were much cheaper... you might be able to make 3 cheaper spacecraft instead of 1 more reliable one, and make up for lack of reliability with redundancy (send 3 copies of the same probe).3. As launches get cheaper the "cubesat"/smartphone electronics 'cheap' satellite mentality will be applied to bigger and more capable spacecraft, at some point overlapping with at least the lower end of 'official' science spacecraft (Discovery class etc.)
1. That is only for a small portion of the missions.
2. Nonsense. Saving a few million isn't enough for more spacecraft.
3. that mentality doesn't hold water.
Quote from: geza on 09/14/2014 07:08 pmProbably we need an Elon v. 2 to revolutionize production methods for space probes and space telescopes!We can stop with this type of nonsense
Probably we need an Elon v. 2 to revolutionize production methods for space probes and space telescopes!
Quote from: Vultur on 09/14/2014 10:56 pm1. I think that will be a result of cheaper launch costs - right now the launch is a significant part of the cost of a "cheap" science mission (especially since they aren't launching them on Falcon 9). If you could make it $10 million in exchange for much less reliability, that may not be worth it if the launch is $100 million plus. 2. But if the launches were much cheaper... you might be able to make 3 cheaper spacecraft instead of 1 more reliable one, and make up for lack of reliability with redundancy (send 3 copies of the same probe).3. As launches get cheaper the "cubesat"/smartphone electronics 'cheap' satellite mentality will be applied to bigger and more capable spacecraft, at some point overlapping with at least the lower end of 'official' science spacecraft (Discovery class etc.)1. That is only for a small portion of the missions.2. Nonsense. Saving a few million isn't enough for more spacecraft.3. that mentality doesn't hold water.
But if the launches were much cheaper... you might be able to make 3 cheaper spacecraft instead of 1 more reliable one, and make up for lack of reliability with redundancy (send 3 copies of the same probe).
landing on the Moon cargo capability was a disappointing 8 MT, and other Moon specific requirements may not be worth it.
@sheltonjrVery interesting.Quotelanding on the Moon cargo capability was a disappointing 8 MT, and other Moon specific requirements may not be worth it.Not disappointing to me at all. It would be enough to do both crew and supply transport to a base. If necessary for station building a tanker could be sent along to refuel after TLI. The tanker needs little fuel for direct earth return after a loop around the moon. That should enable landing of large habitats and other big equipment.What are those other moon specific requirements? Engine throttling for landing in lunar gravity may be a problem. Environmental problems may be mitigated by landing early in the moon day and departing before night.
Before the Mars Colonial Transport vehicle can make its first crewed mission to mars, it will have to be well tested and proven for at least the same duration as a full two way trip. That means it will have to be fully crewed in LEO for more than a year, with multiple lunches and landings on earth to prove that its systems are space worthy.This research and development will have to be self funded because launch revenues wont suffice.The more I think of it, theres just no way around it -If MCT is pursued, SpaceX will maintain their own private space station in LEO based on a precorsur MCT design and BFR.
You could probably do direct injection to anything within, say, Saturn's orbit, and minimize the gravity assist flybys on missions to Uranus and beyond. Alternatively, you could still use flybys liberally and just have an absurdly huge mass budget for your spacecraft.
I have imagined what the future could look like. . . 2020 - Property rights in space are developed
Quote from: Dudely on 09/16/2014 11:52 amI have imagined what the future could look like. . . 2020 - Property rights in space are developedThis is going to be a really odd one; rights are only as useful as your ability to defend and enforce them. It's also rather off topic so I won't go into it.Edit/CR: Yes, developing property rights is hardly a mission for the BFR or MCT! Others to note.
Quote from: Jet Black on 09/16/2014 01:33 pmQuote from: Dudely on 09/16/2014 11:52 amI have imagined what the future could look like. . . 2020 - Property rights in space are developedThis is going to be a really odd one; rights are only as useful as your ability to defend and enforce them. It's also rather off topic so I won't go into it.Edit/CR: Yes, developing property rights is hardly a mission for the BFR or MCT! Others to note.No, I'm serious.If you had no BFR or if everyone had a BFR then you would have a point. But the BFR is exactly what will enable property rights for the same reason sturdy wooden ships enabled north american property rights. If a BFR delivered a mining operation to an asteroid in NEO who is going to physically stop them from claiming it as their own? There would be no one willing to spend the money.Of course, the colonization of the Americas didn't exactly go smoothly so maybe that's not saying much .
Quote from: Dudely on 09/17/2014 12:00 pmQuote from: Jet Black on 09/16/2014 01:33 pmQuote from: Dudely on 09/16/2014 11:52 amI have imagined what the future could look like. . . 2020 - Property rights in space are developedThis is going to be a really odd one; rights are only as useful as your ability to defend and enforce them. It's also rather off topic so I won't go into it.Edit/CR: Yes, developing property rights is hardly a mission for the BFR or MCT! Others to note.No, I'm serious.If you had no BFR or if everyone had a BFR then you would have a point. But the BFR is exactly what will enable property rights for the same reason sturdy wooden ships enabled north american property rights. If a BFR delivered a mining operation to an asteroid in NEO who is going to physically stop them from claiming it as their own? There would be no one willing to spend the money.Of course, the colonization of the Americas didn't exactly go smoothly so maybe that's not saying much . If what is on asteroid is worth recovering for the price of BFR development, actually plenty of people would willing to spend the money. :/
Quote from: Darkseraph on 09/17/2014 12:33 pmQuote from: Dudely on 09/17/2014 12:00 pmQuote from: Jet Black on 09/16/2014 01:33 pmQuote from: Dudely on 09/16/2014 11:52 amI have imagined what the future could look like. . . 2020 - Property rights in space are developedThis is going to be a really odd one; rights are only as useful as your ability to defend and enforce them. It's also rather off topic so I won't go into it.Edit/CR: Yes, developing property rights is hardly a mission for the BFR or MCT! Others to note.No, I'm serious.If you had no BFR or if everyone had a BFR then you would have a point. But the BFR is exactly what will enable property rights for the same reason sturdy wooden ships enabled north american property rights. If a BFR delivered a mining operation to an asteroid in NEO who is going to physically stop them from claiming it as their own? There would be no one willing to spend the money.Of course, the colonization of the Americas didn't exactly go smoothly so maybe that's not saying much . If what is on asteroid is worth recovering for the price of BFR development, actually plenty of people would willing to spend the money. :/No, they wouldn't, because here is how the actual real-life conversation would go:Engineer1: "Hey there is an asteroid with some valuable stuff on it, want to give me money to go get it?"Investor: "Sure, what's your plan?"Engineer1: *shows nice plan*Investor: "Ok, here is some money"*Mining operation is launched*Engineer2: "Hey there is an asteroid with some cool stuff on it, want to give me money to go get it? Only problem is there is already someone there mining it."Investor: "Why don't you just pick a different asteroid? I won't give you any of my money to bicker over space dirt. Get out of my office."
No, they wouldn't, because here is how the actual real-life conversation would go:Engineer1: "Hey there is an asteroid with some valuable stuff on it, want to give me money to go get it?"Investor: "Sure, what's your plan?"Engineer1: *shows nice plan*Investor: "Ok, here is some money"*Mining operation is launched*Engineer2: "Hey there is an asteroid with some cool stuff on it, want to give me money to go get it? Only problem is there is already someone there mining it."Investor: "Why don't you just pick a different asteroid? I won't give you any of my money to bicker over space dirt. Get out of my office."