Space Ship Two - General Thread

[beancounter]

I know this isn't exactly an update, but has anyone heard anything about Tier 3?  Since Burt no longer owns Scaled, will this impact or cancel those plans?

[Danderman]

I think he's talking about the inferiority of centralized decision making vs. the market discovery process and the general vastly superior efficiency, resource allocation, etc. of private actors over government bureaucracies.

That's a pretty general assumption about capitalism. Though that in turn rests on other assumption that might not be true about the emerging space sector, and blah blah blah. But that's another issue altogether and one that's been done to death on this forum.

And I'm actually sympathetic to the anarcho-capitalist types that insist that total privatization is the answer. I don't agree with them, but I sure see where they're coming from.

I am not one of those anarcho-capitalist types, and I firmly believe that government has tremendous capabilities for development of systems, under the right conditions; for example, in times of crisis, government can produce wonderful outcomes, the Cold War Apollo program being a prime example. However, without an overlying crisis, trying to repeat Apollo is pretty much doomed to failure.

On the other hand, private development is subject to travails of raising capital, investor concerns and problems, and the usual give and take of business, which can inject significant delays into any project.

So, the question of which model of development is better entirely depends on subjective factors such as the general environment, economic conditions, etc.

[Comga]

Page 34 of  the August 2 Aviation Week has a photo of SpaceShip Two with its tails in the feathered position and its nose open to reveal some structure whose purpose escapes me.  However what is perhaps more interesting is the tails of White Knight 2 on either side of SS2.  It may be the wide angle camera's perspective but the tails look so far apart that it appears that the halves WK2 have been separated.  How else could they feather SS2 while between the WK2 fuselages?  I wonder why they would do this.

[gospacex]

And I'm actually sympathetic to the anarcho-capitalist types that insist that total privatization is the answer. I don't agree with them, but I sure see where they're coming from.

I am not one of those anarcho-capitalist types, and I firmly believe that government has tremendous capabilities for development of systems, under the right conditions; for example, in times of crisis, government can produce wonderful outcomes, the Cold War Apollo program being a prime example.

For _some_ definition of "progress", yes. Where is Apollo program now, is it alive? If not, then perhaps it's because it was superseded by even better successor? I don't see it, do you?
This isn't "progress" in by book, by a long shot.
This kind of "progress" literally litters Siberia - many megaprojects which swallowed untold billions of $$$ (in that case roubles) and left the country bankrupt, with little to show for it.
Do you really have to have a massive country-wide failure like this in US to believe me?
I sure hope US people are able to learn on others' mistakes, without needing to repeat them...

However, without an overlying crisis, trying to repeat Apollo is pretty much doomed to failure.

Thank God, because we do not need another such "success"!

On the other hand, private development is subject to travails of raising capital, investor concerns and problems, and the usual give and take of business, which can inject significant delays into any project.

Yes, therefore there only really clever and energetic entities survive. Which is, in the long run, _good_, despite short-term instability.

So, the question of which model of development is better entirely depends on subjective factors such as the general environment, economic conditions, etc.

What is subjective in the fact that there is NOT ONE fully government-run country on this planet which did not fail horribly? Why in dozens of communist, socialist, theocratic, and other totalitarian countries NOT ONE succeeded in general development, why they all fell behind West? There should be a reason for that, you know.

[wjbarnett]

RM2 hot fire info: http://www.parabolicarc.com/2010/08/16/rocketmotortwo-fired-time/

[beancounter]

RM2 hot fire info: http://www.parabolicarc.com/2010/08/16/rocketmotortwo-fired-time/

So they're continuing the performance envelope expansion.  Wonder when they'll reach their required maximum (if they haven't already)?

[Comga]

From Aviation Week "WhiteKnightTwo damaged in gear collapse"

"Fortunately...  SpaceShipTwo (SS2) .. was not suspended beneath the WK2 at the time."

[kraisee]

Could that be some form of Hydrogen Embrittlement failure?   I've seen collapsed landing gear on stationary aircraft due to that.   Not a pretty sight.

Of course, usually SCC occurs when the aircraft is doing a lot of flying near the ocean.   WK2 has probably spent most of its life just about as far away from salt-spray conditions as an aircraft can get, so that doesn't track...

Ross.

[iamlucky13]

Could that be some form of Hydrogen Embrittlement failure? 

Hypothetically possible, but we don't have enough information even to speculate. For all we know the gear simply failed to deploy or fully lock into place, as opposed to structural failure of a part.

I actually was not aware hydrogen embrittlement was a major concern for landing gear. From some reading, I'm guessing it's mainly due to acid exposure, such as in cleaning products. Interesting.

There's a picture from another angle in the Flight International article:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/08/20/346407/picture-whiteknight-two-landing-gear-fails.html

It looks like the gear is not fully recessed (not sure if that's normal or not), so the fuselage of the White Knight 2 might not have taken any damage.

[jabe]

with Burt Rutans possible retirement I wonder how that will impact development....hope it isn't health related reasons...
jb

[TheFallen]

Spaceport America is really starting to take shape in New Mexico..

http://www.spaceportamerica.com/construction/construction-status.html

[spacetraveler]

with Burt Rutans possible retirement I wonder how that will impact development....hope it isn't health related reasons...
jb

Well the development of the WK2/SS2 system is pretty much completed. Unless some kind of serious design flaw is uncovered in the testing, I would guess it will probably not affect it all that much.

[cheesybagel]

Well the development of the WK2/SS2 system is pretty much completed. Unless some kind of serious design flaw is uncovered in the testing, I would guess it will probably not affect it all that much.

The project has been in rough waters because of their engine development difficulties. I think the project has a high chance of failure if Burt Rutan is not on board. It is that kind of a project. He probably does not care as much since the company was bought by Northrop not very long ago.

[sdsds]

[Rutan] probably does not care as much since the company was bought by Northrop not very long ago.

Do you have any basis for that speculation?

Rutan always comes across as someone motivated purely by a desire to do the cool stuff, not by who "owns" it.

If I were going to do totally inappropriate wild-ass speculation about a living person, I'd suggest it was more likely the July 2007 accidental deaths that chilled Rutan, not the acquisition of Scaled by Northrop Grumman.

[Cinder]

Around the time of those accidents, there was mention of health issues for Rutan, and that he might have to retire soon, then.  IIRC heart problems were mentioned specifically.

[jabe]

Dreamchaser also seems to be wanting to use basically the same engine as SS2 so I'm curious to see how ansy they are about the issues as well.  An interesting Blog entry talks about possible reasons why VG hasn't bailed on the hyrid engine..
I hope issues are resolved soon.  I want to see SS2 fly (safely of course)

jb

[Space Pete]

New Virgin Galactic Promotional Video: Your Journey Into Space Starts Here.

[Spiff]

Nice video. For promotional purposes obviously, as it already states. But as far as I know the first time that some of the passengers' names have been revealed.

[Silmfeanor]

That was indeed a really nice ( although promotional ) video; I got a bit giddy when seeing those views from up there. I hope they get it going soon - have they started production of their fleet?

[docmordrid]

VSS Enterprise and her mother-ship, VMS Eve, are undergoing tests now at the Mojave Air and Space Port, California.  VSS Voyager is next, presumably after VSS Enterprise is finished.