Author Topic: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?  (Read 18303 times)

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #60 on: 07/15/2022 07:47 pm »

Atmos-6 and CRS-7 were not testing programs.  The Dragon 2 explosion was a test, but also happened very late in the development of the spacecraft, catching everyone by surprise, delaying the Commercial Crew program, and raising more that a few eyebrows in the process.

So, I don't think your argument holds any water.
Yep, it's terrible how the Dragon 2 explosion delayed CCP. A real space company using the proper tried-and-true deliberate development methodology would never have such a setback. Look at Starliner as a shining example.

The Boeing Starliner and SpaceX Crew Dragon contracts were awarded simultaneously in 2014 with both companies expected to fly their crewed flight tests in 2017. Crew Dragon was almost three years late. By contrast, Starliner will only be five years late, if they fly successfully in December.

Offline Stan-1967

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #61 on: 07/15/2022 08:19 pm »

The Boeing Starliner and SpaceX Crew Dragon contracts were awarded simultaneously in 2014 with both companies expected to fly their crewed flight tests in 2017. Crew Dragon was almost three years late. By contrast, Starliner will only be five years late, if they fly successfully in December.

I would add to this that CCP showed that space flight is not easy, even if you are SpaceX or Boeing.  Both have had their challenges, whether they be financial/budgetary, technical, or culture & others. 

I don't think the explosion of crew dragon on a test stand was an easy problem to solve.  I recall Musk stating sometime before being awarded the CCP contract that a CRS capsule could carry a passenger if i just had some SCUBA style O2 tanks & CO2 scrubber.   It didn't quite get executed that way.  Boeing also had a huge legacy of experience to draw from, but that didn't seem to help them.  They are slogging through tough integration issues that will probably get resolved, but at very high cost to the program. 

I think about all the other "new space" and old space companies that don't even try crewed flight, and that speaks volumes to how difficult it is.  Even the crowded field of "new space" launch providers has more failures than successes in just getting to orbit.

So does SpaceX make it look easy?  I'd say thats a big "NO!", they are a rare example  of success, and their story of how they got there is highly interesting.  I think it can only look easy to the uninformed observer.  Similar to how some lay people can understand how a walkie talkie works , but understanding the inner workings of a digital 5G smartphone?  No way even an above average lay person understands all the technology needed to make a smartphone.

Offline alugobi

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #62 on: 07/15/2022 09:17 pm »
Quote
I would add to this that CCP showed that space flight is not easy, even if you are SpaceX or Boeing. 

And what really separates those two is this:  when SX blows something up, we in the community expect a couple of tweets and then not long thereafter some photos of new or changed hardware components start showing up and going to a test stand.  In that regard, they don't disappoint.

They don't screw around and they're not afraid of tossing out a design.  They collectively act like they have a mission.


Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #63 on: 10/16/2022 08:12 am »
SpaceX has taken 30 people to space in less than 2.5 years, notably more than anyone else:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/since-crew-dragons-debut-spacex-has-flown-more-astronauts-than-anyone/

Quote
Since Crew Dragon’s debut, SpaceX has flown more astronauts than anyone
"Thank you for an incredible ride up to orbit and an incredible ride home."

ERIC BERGER - 10/14/2022, 10:57 PM

From the article marking Crew-4s return:

Quote
In a little more than two years, SpaceX has surpassed the total number of astronauts launched into orbit by China, whose human spaceflight program dates back to 2003; and in the time Crew Dragon has been operational, it has exceeded even the Russian Soyuz vehicle in terms of the total number of people flown into space during that period.

Even assuming Starliner comes on-line in the next few months, I don’t see SpaceX’s crewed flight rate dropping (with non-NASA missions for Polaris and Axiom). Hard to see who else will achieve a similar rate?

Online catdlr

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #64 on: 10/16/2022 08:33 am »
SpaceX has taken 30 people to space in less than 2.5 years, notably more than anyone else:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/since-crew-dragons-debut-spacex-has-flown-more-astronauts-than-anyone/

Quote
Since Crew Dragon’s debut, SpaceX has flown more astronauts than anyone
"Thank you for an incredible ride up to orbit and an incredible ride home."

ERIC BERGER - 10/14/2022, 10:57 PM

From the article marking Crew-4s return:

Quote
In a little more than two years, SpaceX has surpassed the total number of astronauts launched into orbit by China, whose human spaceflight program dates back to 2003; and in the time Crew Dragon has been operational, it has exceeded even the Russian Soyuz vehicle in terms of the total number of people flown into space during that period.

Even assuming Starliner comes online in the next few months, I don’t see SpaceX’s crewed flight rate dropping (with non-NASA missions for Polaris and Axiom). Hard to see who else will achieve a similar rate.

Over the course of 30 years, the Space Shuttle flew 355 humans.  That would bring the rate to 29 humans every 2.5 years.  So Dragon and Space X is doing a little better for now and will eclipse that rate in the future with passenger Starships.  Source
« Last Edit: 10/16/2022 08:34 am by catdlr »
Tony De La Rosa, ...I'm no Feline Dealer!! I move mountains.  but I'm better known for "I think it's highly sexual." Japanese to English Translation.

Offline gsa

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #65 on: 10/17/2022 07:14 pm »
Over the course of 30 years, the Space Shuttle flew 355 humans.  That would bring the rate to 29 humans every 2.5 years.  So Dragon and Space X is doing a little better for now and will eclipse that rate in the future with passenger Starships.  Source
355 is number of different humans. Total number of flyers is 852 (from the same source). It's about 70 humans every 2.5 years. On the other hand, it is quite hard do compete on this parameter with a system that flies 7 people at once and can not spend more than two weeks in space.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #66 on: 10/17/2022 07:24 pm »
It is too bad Dragon went down to 4 from 7. But again, we’re just waiting for Starship which ought to blow all these out of the water in a few years.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline gsa

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #67 on: 10/17/2022 07:46 pm »
It is too bad Dragon went down to 4 from 7. But again, we’re just waiting for Starship which ought to blow all these out of the water in a few years.
It's neither bad nor good. It's the capacity not needed right now. Those seven people need to have a destination to go to. There is none at the moment for so many at once.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #68 on: 10/17/2022 08:10 pm »
It would be useful for the ISS Axiom missions, ie surge capacity at ISS like Shuttle did.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Hog

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #69 on: 10/17/2022 11:42 pm »
It is too bad Dragon went down to 4 from 7. But again, we’re just waiting for Starship which ought to blow all these out of the water in a few years.
852 humans from 0 to 25k aboard Starship, that'll be the day. I wonder how long we'll have to wait?  It's going to be a fascinating journey regardless.
Paul

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #70 on: 10/18/2022 03:24 am »
It is too bad Dragon went down to 4 from 7. But again, we’re just waiting for Starship which ought to blow all these out of the water in a few years.
852 humans from 0 to 25k aboard Starship, that'll be the day. I wonder how long we'll have to wait?  It's going to be a fascinating journey regardless.
If SpaceX introduces a 18 meter diameter inspace vehicle (Mars Colonial Transporter) sometime in the future. Then conceivably a Starship passenger LEO ferry variant could also be introduces to bring up to 300 passengers for transfer to the inspace vehicle.

Inspace as not for reentry back to Earth. But probably can land and take off from Mars.


Offline Hog

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #71 on: 10/18/2022 12:58 pm »
Shuttle could deliver a maximum of 16,050 kg to the ISS which includes crew.  Dragon II can deliver 6,000 kg of pressurized and 500 kg of unpressurized cargo to ISS.  A second Dragon II with crew would have to be launched to = a shuttle launch. 

Cost of Shuttle flight was over $1 billion per flight.  Cost of Dragon II is about $150+ million per flight.  Cost of a Dragon II with crew is $250 million+.   

Add the two SpaceX flights together for a crew + cargo similar to shuttle to be say $500 million vs $1 billion+ for a Shuttle flight.  So SpaceX is cheaper, especially with a used booster.  So SpaceX's cost is at least half the cost of a shuttle. 

I am just guessing based on various threads here.  Actual shuttle costs may have been higher.  Someone with actual figures may chime in with actual costs. 

Shuttle made space flight look easy with the exception of the two shuttle losses.  SpaceX is now doing the same.  Hopefully there will be no crew losses.  Early on SpaceX lost a cargo launch.  A shuttle loss was far more expensive to overcome.
And if you needed to deliver a new big piece of the ISS today, you could use a Falcon Heavy for less than the cost of a Shuttle flight, so even that capability of the Shuttle is covered.
There's more than getting that big piece up to orbit.  Shuttle capability NOT covered.
Paul

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #72 on: 10/18/2022 01:01 pm »
You can use the capability of Dragon as a tug to get that piece up there (as Orion is planning for Gateway).

The capability of Shuttle that hasn’t been covered yet is the ability to return large things.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline gsa

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #73 on: 10/18/2022 03:20 pm »
It would be useful for the ISS Axiom missions, ie surge capacity at ISS like Shuttle did.
They would need much more living space to accommodate additional people. Shuttle had its own.
Look, I'm not saying 7-seat Dragon would never be needed. Just that it's not needed right now.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #74 on: 10/18/2022 08:26 pm »
It would be useful for the ISS Axiom missions, ie surge capacity at ISS like Shuttle did.
They would need much more living space to accommodate additional people. Shuttle had its own.
Look, I'm not saying 7-seat Dragon would never be needed. Just that it's not needed right now.
Think either the Axiom modules or less likely a modified Cygnus pressurized cargo module will increase the ISS accommodation capacity.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #75 on: 10/18/2022 09:46 pm »
It would be useful for the ISS Axiom missions, ie surge capacity at ISS like Shuttle did.
They would need much more living space to accommodate additional people. Shuttle had its own.
Look, I'm not saying 7-seat Dragon would never be needed. Just that it's not needed right now.
Use an Orion. May as well get something useful out of it.

Offline testguy

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #76 on: 10/19/2022 12:42 am »
Yup, to date.

Offline libra

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #77 on: 10/19/2022 06:34 am »
It would be useful for the ISS Axiom missions, ie surge capacity at ISS like Shuttle did.
They would need much more living space to accommodate additional people. Shuttle had its own.
Look, I'm not saying 7-seat Dragon would never be needed. Just that it's not needed right now.
Use an Orion. May as well get something useful out of it.

It is so damn heavy, and expensive. Nothing a Falcon 9H can't handle however; as for cost... IDK, but it's Lockheed, and a NASA contract, so won't be cheap, even if some more are build.

Offline AmigaClone

Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #78 on: 10/19/2022 08:46 am »
It is too bad Dragon went down to 4 from 7. But again, we’re just waiting for Starship which ought to blow all these out of the water in a few years.

The reason for the change is that, once SpaceX had discarded propulsive landing, concerns were raised within NASA about the g-forces crew members might experience during splashdown. This led to NASA deciding to change the specification for the angle of the ship’s seats for landing.

To avoid additional delays while Dragon 2 was completely redesigned to accommodate seven seats meeting the new NASA specification, SpaceX decided to reduce the number of available seats to 4.

Could SpaceX design and build a 'Dragon 3' capable of handling a crew of 7 (8?) using seats that would meet NASA's requirements? I suspect that might be possible - although the theoretical 'Dragon 3' likely would be larger than Dragon 2.

Would that be likely to happen when taking into account the expected number of Crew Dragon flights before it (and the Falcon 9) are  retired?  No.

Having said that,I suspect the if the following happened we might see what I called 'Dragon 3'.

Quote
1) A customer came to SpaceX's headquarters asking about a version of Crew Dragon capable of at least 7 people that also meets NASA's requirements.
2) Said  customer pays SpaceX for it to conduct an initial study on what it would take to design and develop the crew version of 'Dragon 3', including potential cost for that design.
3) if SpaceX determines it's viable, customer pays for SpaceX to complete the the design.
4) While 'Dragon 3' is being designed, the customer orders and pays for enough missions using that new design for SpaceX to justify building at least two of the Crew Dragon 3 capsule.

Offline gsa

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Re: Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?
« Reply #79 on: 10/19/2022 12:04 pm »
It would be useful for the ISS Axiom missions, ie surge capacity at ISS like Shuttle did.
They would need much more living space to accommodate additional people. Shuttle had its own.
Look, I'm not saying 7-seat Dragon would never be needed. Just that it's not needed right now.
Think either the Axiom modules or less likely a modified Cygnus pressurized cargo module will increase the ISS accommodation capacity.
Sure. But as of right now, there aren't any of them flying. ;)

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