Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2

[vsatman]

What is the physical limitation on the number of user link beams per satellite? They have 8 channels with 2 polarizations. Shouldn't they be able to run at least 16 antennas per satellite instead of 4?

As  I understand Sat has 3 FAR Antenna to transmit to Earth in Ku and 1 FAR for receiving from Earth (user terminal).. This FAR antenna , each  can use part of full square to configurate 2..3..4..6 (?) beam and point it in different  directions .

[vsatman]

A slightly bit offtopic - regarding Elon's mail:
If the current V1 satellites are financially weak (I guess not enough capacity) and V2 (much bigger) are required, what does it mean for other satellite constellations (Kuiper, OneWeb)?

for OneWEB - nothing. It has another orbit, coverage and business model
but for Kuiper with the same Business Model  and direct competition with StarLink - personal user terminal 
 now is
time to think it over and can be change the size of the cells, the operating mode of the terminal, etc.

[TrevorMonty]

A slightly bit offtopic - regarding Elon's mail:
If the current V1 satellites are financially weak (I guess not enough capacity) and V2 (much bigger) are required, what does it mean for other satellite constellations (Kuiper, OneWeb)?

for OneWEB - nothing. It has another orbit, coverage and business model
but for Kuiper with the same Business Model  and direct competition with StarLink - personal user terminal 
 now is
time to think it over and can be change the size of the cells, the operating mode of the terminal, etc.

For start Amazon don't need to worry about funding new RLV they have four in development to choose from, NG, Neutron, Beta and Terrian R could also include F9R and SS if they are willing to fly with competitor. Amazon will already have fixed launch cost from those launch suppliers. Amazon business model is different from Spacex, their primary customer is themselves and their big AWS customers. Kupier gives them a private and hopefully secure internal internet something you can't always put $ value on. Funding is also area where Amazon is stronger, they have very deep pockets, a few $B cost overrun won't bankrupt them.

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[Scintillant]

Assuming he's not lying or exaggerating for effect

It's not really an assumption I would bet on...

Yeah, we should keep in mind that a) thus far, SpaceX has had practically unlimited investor demand with every funding round being massively oversubscribed, b) Musk has tens of billions in Tesla stock that he could sell to fund SpaceX if need be, and c) worst case, SpaceX could reduce R&D spend and "just" be the most dominant launch provider on the planet. SpaceX won't be going bankrupt barring some wildly unlikely edge case scenario.

[envy887]

What is the physical limitation on the number of user link beams per satellite? They have 8 channels with 2 polarizations. Shouldn't they be able to run at least 16 antennas per satellite instead of 4?

As  I understand Sat has 3 FAR Antenna to transmit to Earth in Ku and 1 FAR for receiving from Earth (user terminal).. This FAR antenna , each  can use part of full square to configurate 2..3..4..6 (?) beam and point it in different  directions .

But can they run 500+ Mbps per beam even with multiple beams per antenna? Since they are directionally separate and going down to different cells, this seems to put a very high limit on total downlink bandwidth, even using only a single channel. Not high density, but since each satellite can see thousands of cells the system downlink limit would be extremely high if the users are dispersed.

For example, from the Nov 21 SatMagazine article page 56: "We can proceed from the assumption that all users in the same cell should share approximately 840 Mbit if the beam serves only 1 cell and 240 Mbit if the beam uses beam hopping and serves 3 cells."

However, if instead of hopping, a single antenna divided into either a grid or 3 sparse arrays transmit in 3 directions continuously on the same channel, then the available downlink bandwidth should be 3 x 840 or 2520 Mbps available to 3 different cells, separated by some angle as needed to minimize interference between the 3 beams.

Repeat across 3 downlink antennas and that's 7.5 Gbps down with only one channel and one polarization. And I don't see any reason to stop at 3 beams per antenna. With 4 or 6 beams per antenna that is 10 Gpbs or 15 Gbps per satellite on one channel.

[su27k]

A slightly bit offtopic - regarding Elon's mail:
If the current V1 satellites are financially weak (I guess not enough capacity) and V2 (much bigger) are required, what does it mean for other satellite constellations (Kuiper, OneWeb)?

Telesat is 700kg, so already larger than Starlink V1. Kuiper is probably larger too, but no specific number is available, they're launching two test satellites on a 1-ton class smallsat launcher, so each could be around 500kg.

As for OneWeb, they were already bankrupt.

[su27k]

Assuming he's not lying or exaggerating for effect

It's not really an assumption I would bet on...

Yeah, we should keep in mind that a) thus far, SpaceX has had practically unlimited investor demand with every funding round being massively oversubscribed, b) Musk has tens of billions in Tesla stock that he could sell to fund SpaceX if need be, and c) worst case, SpaceX could reduce R&D spend and "just" be the most dominant launch provider on the planet. SpaceX won't be going bankrupt barring some wildly unlikely edge case scenario.

From Elon's latest tweet, it's clear the edge case scenario is exactly what he's worried about. Black swan event can and do happen, especially in the financial world. Last time is 2008, and Elon nearly lost both SpaceX and Tesla back then, I think he understands the risk better than anyone since he has first hand experience.

[vsatman]

The vast majority of those 3% could never afford $50 a month.  And I doubt they get more than %30 of any market. I think a more realistic back of the napkin is this. They have filed with the FCC for 1mil base stations (presumably in the US). Lets assume they get $100-500 a month per (those base stations serve to 100s of users so 1-5$/mo/user). And $100m-500m/mo revenue for SpaceX from North America. About the same from Europe, presumably less from places like Africa where even $1 per user would be too much.

This is much more realistic, but even this will be very difficult to implement, communication is a strategic industry and very few countries are ready to give it to foreigners.

[envy887]

just doing some back of the napkin calculations, during the tesla earnings call said that they want starlink to serve 3-5% of the worlds population, using an arbitrary monthly price of $50 starlink would earn:

For 3%
11.3 B/month or 135.5 B/year

For 5%
18.8 B/month or 225.9 B/year

Thats a lot or revenue

The vast majority of those 3% could never afford $50 a month.  And I doubt they get more than %30 of any market.

I think a more realistic back of the napkin is this. They have filed with the FCC for 1mil base stations (presumably in the US). Lets assume they get $100-500 a month per (those base stations serve to 100s of users so 1-5$/mo/user). And $100m-500m/mo revenue for SpaceX from North America. About the same from Europe, presumably less from places like Africa where even $1 per user would be too much.

They have asked for 5 million in US. 1 million is only the number currently approved.
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-now-plans-for-5-million-starlink-customers-in-us-up-from-1-million/

And the terminals do not serve 100s of users, and the vast majority probably never will in the US. SpaceX does not allow resale of the bandwidth, and probably won't for most customers. Wholesale users will probably pay more.

[jpo234]

ESA head says Europe needs to stop facilitating Elon Musk’s ambitions in space

You have one person owning half of the active satellites in the world. That’s quite amazing. De facto, he is making the rules. The rest of the world including Europe... is just not responding quick enough.

[wannamoonbase]

ESA head says Europe needs to stop facilitating Elon Musk’s ambitions in space

You have one person owning half of the active satellites in the world. That’s quite amazing. De facto, he is making the rules. The rest of the world including Europe... is just not responding quick enough.

The key there is that EU not responding fast enough.

The complaint is similar to BO and others. The answer is build and launch some of your own.

[M.E.T.]

ESA head says Europe needs to stop facilitating Elon Musk’s ambitions in space

You have one person owning half of the active satellites in the world. That’s quite amazing. De facto, he is making the rules. The rest of the world including Europe... is just not responding quick enough.

So what is he actually proposing they do?

[ulm_atms]

ESA head says Europe needs to stop facilitating Elon Musk’s ambitions in space

You have one person owning half of the active satellites in the world. That’s quite amazing. De facto, he is making the rules. The rest of the world including Europe... is just not responding quick enough.

So what is he actually proposing they do?

Nothing.  It's just political PR. 

There are just soooo many people %@&%^ing about SpaceX but really....what has SpaceX done?  They have followed every single regulation on the books....so...why is most everyone else chapped about them?  I personally guess it come down to them not thinking SpaceX could pull off what they requested (still got to see if they get all the way there).  SpaceX requested, got told yea sure with the expectation of older companies that there was no way they could do that, and now the old companies got caught with their pants down.

All I see when these supposed leaders spout off BS like this is a 2 year old throwing a tantrum.  You can be dang sure that ESA would be singing the opposite song if they were in SpaceX's position.

Why is it that the people afraid of taking risks get upset at the people who do take the risks?  SpaceX gambled on Starlink and so far...it looks to be making good so far.

I know this sounds ranty but all the BS being spouted by all the older space/com companies just chaps my butt!  Compete or get the hell out of the way!  Tired of these industries getting all bent out of shape because they got use to not competing and seemed to have forgot how to....so they throw fits instead.   

[DigitalMan]

Nothing.  It's just political PR. 

There are just soooo many people %@&%^ing about SpaceX but really....what has SpaceX done?  They have followed every single regulation on the books....so...why is most everyone else chapped about them?  I personally guess it come down to them not thinking SpaceX could pull off what they requested (still got to see if they get all the way there).  SpaceX requested, got told yea sure with the expectation of older companies that there was no way they could do that, and now the old companies got caught with their pants down.

All I see when these supposed leaders spout off BS like this is a 2 year old throwing a tantrum.  You can be dang sure that ESA would be singing the opposite song if they were in SpaceX's position.

Why is it that the people afraid of taking risks get upset at the people who do take the risks?  SpaceX gambled on Starlink and so far...it looks to be making good so far.

I know this sounds ranty but all the BS being spouted by all the older space/com companies just chaps my butt!  Compete or get the hell out of the way!  Tired of these industries getting all bent out of shape because they got use to not competing and seemed to have forgot how to....so they throw fits instead.   

This is an interesting problem for Europe, I think. Elon is focused on only two things, whereas Europe as a whole has a lot of considerations to deal with.

[[email protected]]

ESA head says Europe needs to stop facilitating Elon Musk’s ambitions in space

You have one person owning half of the active satellites in the world. That’s quite amazing. De facto, he is making the rules. The rest of the world including Europe... is just not responding quick enough.

So what is he actually proposing they do?

Nothing.  It's just political PR. 

There are just soooo many people %@&%^ing about SpaceX but really....what has SpaceX done?  They have followed every single regulation on the books....so...why is most everyone else chapped about them?  I personally guess it come down to them not thinking SpaceX could pull off what they requested (still got to see if they get all the way there).  SpaceX requested, got told yea sure with the expectation of older companies that there was no way they could do that, and now the old companies got caught with their pants down.

All I see when these supposed leaders spout off BS like this is a 2 year old throwing a tantrum.  You can be dang sure that ESA would be singing the opposite song if they were in SpaceX's position.

Why is it that the people afraid of taking risks get upset at the people who do take the risks?  SpaceX gambled on Starlink and so far...it looks to be making good so far.

I know this sounds ranty but all the BS being spouted by all the older space/com companies just chaps my butt!  Compete or get the hell out of the way!  Tired of these industries getting all bent out of shape because they got use to not competing and seemed to have forgot how to....so they throw fits instead.   

"They will ignore you, then they will laugh at you, then they will fight you, then you win" can't be overstated

[OTV Booster]

ESA head says Europe needs to stop facilitating Elon Musk’s ambitions in space

You have one person owning half of the active satellites in the world. That’s quite amazing. De facto, he is making the rules. The rest of the world including Europe... is just not responding quick enough.

So what is he actually proposing they do?

Nothing.  It's just political PR. 

There are just soooo many people %@&%^ing about SpaceX but really....what has SpaceX done?  They have followed every single regulation on the books....so...why is most everyone else chapped about them?  I personally guess it come down to them not thinking SpaceX could pull off what they requested (still got to see if they get all the way there).  SpaceX requested, got told yea sure with the expectation of older companies that there was no way they could do that, and now the old companies got caught with their pants down.

All I see when these supposed leaders spout off BS like this is a 2 year old throwing a tantrum.  You can be dang sure that ESA would be singing the opposite song if they were in SpaceX's position.

Why is it that the people afraid of taking risks get upset at the people who do take the risks?  SpaceX gambled on Starlink and so far...it looks to be making good so far.

I know this sounds ranty but all the BS being spouted by all the older space/com companies just chaps my butt!  Compete or get the hell out of the way!  Tired of these industries getting all bent out of shape because they got use to not competing and seemed to have forgot how to....so they throw fits instead.   

Europe has a completely different mind set on this. Telecom has traditionally been highly regulated and considered very much a part of the national (now EU) infrastructure. I think the complaint isn't that Elon is winning so much as the regulatory structure is less mature than the suddenly unfolding reality and whatever structures arise will have an already established non home brew structure confronting it.


Another way of looking at this is that industries are now arising that are, by their very nature, global, and not all the globe is happy with it. When I take off my fanboi hat I have concerns for what the Elon Empire might become when the passionate idealists are gone and professional managers turn it into a General Motors on steroids.

[su27k]

Another way of looking at this is that industries are now arising that are, by their very nature, global, and not all the globe is happy with it. When I take off my fanboi hat I have concerns for what the Elon Empire might become when the passionate idealists are gone and professional managers turn it into a General Motors on steroids.

The reason Elon Empire can get to where it is today is entirely dependent on the passionate idealists' innovation and hard work, without these its advantages will erode and it will lose to new companies with passionate idealists, this is no different from the decline of other big firms like Nokia or Yahoo, or how GM is losing to Tesla right now, so I fail to see this is an issue to be worried about.

[su27k]

ESA head says Europe needs to stop facilitating Elon Musk’s ambitions in space

You have one person owning half of the active satellites in the world. That’s quite amazing. De facto, he is making the rules. The rest of the world including Europe... is just not responding quick enough.

So what is he actually proposing they do?

Landing rights, this is the only leverage they have against Starlink. Although I believe Starlink already got landing rights in major EU countries, so I'm guessing this is why Aschbacher is not happy.

[RoadWithoutEnd]

Another way of looking at this is that industries are now arising that are, by their very nature, global, and not all the globe is happy with it. When I take off my fanboi hat I have concerns for what the Elon Empire might become when the passionate idealists are gone and professional managers turn it into a General Motors on steroids.

There's no avoiding that kind of thing in the long-term.  Elon is focusing tremendous amounts of creative energy into small areas, and that energy has to dissipate into the rest of the economy over time.  But that's also a good thing, as we see with the sheer number of companies started or crewed by SpaceX and Tesla alums.

It's exhilarating to be present at one of these moments where everything comes together, and probably sad to then see them fly apart, but it's all the same process.  NASA's derailment after Apollo drove creative energy into Silicon Valley, and then IT's implosion into trivia and petty thieving drove those energies back out toward older, more concrete sci-fi dreams.

Corporate mediocrity isn't something to fear.  If those people could stop anything, nothing would ever happen.  They're just curators of the known; experts in assumption.  Their caution serves a purpose, and they either end up funding innovation by accident, or allowing it to happen by default when they ignore it.

If SpaceX succeeds, then its ultimate reward will be mediocrity, because it will have given birth to innovations that are beyond its own control.  That's evolution, and life in general.

[M.E.T.]

ESA head says Europe needs to stop facilitating Elon Musk’s ambitions in space

You have one person owning half of the active satellites in the world. That’s quite amazing. De facto, he is making the rules. The rest of the world including Europe... is just not responding quick enough.

So what is he actually proposing they do?

Landing rights, this is the only leverage they have against Starlink. Although I believe Starlink already got landing rights in major EU countries, so I'm guessing this is why Aschbacher is not happy.

Of course, if the EU impose protectionist “landing rights” by prohibiting Starlink licenses in EU countries, the US and other countries will retaliate and do the same.  As a result no megaconstellation will be financially viable, given it only has access to customers in its home country.