Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2

[Kragrathea]

I happened to be going through Montana and I stopped by the Starlink ground station near Conrad MT to take some pictures. It sits in the middle of a field a few miles out of a very small town. I thought maybe a fiber line ran nearby or something but as far as I can tell the only reason picked it was because of the lat/lon. And maybe a good view of the horizons.

Google maps location
https://goo.gl/maps/YkRVsRsnWUt71iwQA

[catdlr]

Great initial posts, Kragrathea, welcome to the Forum. 

General question to anyone reading, the power and telemetry buildings seem to be able to stand up to the environment. I'm not too sure about the situation with the antennas on the flatbed.  Seems like they will get covered up by snow during the winter season.  Would they be better on some towers?

[JamesH65]

Great initial posts, Kragrathea, welcome to the Forum. 

General question to anyone reading, the power and telemetry buildings seem to be able to stand up to the environment. I'm not too sure about the situation with the antennas on the flatbed.  Seems like they will get covered up by snow during the winter season.  Would they be better on some towers?

Why on earth would you think that the final installation will be on flatbeds? This is prototype stuff, if they get covered with snow, they just brush it off.

[gongora]

I think a more realistic back of the napkin is this. They have filed with the FCC for 1mil base stations (presumably in the US). Lets assume they get $100-500 a month per (those base stations serve to 100s of users so 1-5$/mo/user). And $100m-500m/mo revenue for SpaceX from North America. About the same from Europe, presumably less from places like Africa where even $1 per user would be too much.

Those 1M Ku-band base stations are for individual users/businesses/households.  They are different from the Ka-band gateways that will be handling large amounts of traffic.  The current Ku-band gateways are supposed to be temporary.  (I'd bet there are quite a few people in Africa who can afford more than $1/month for internet service, and many installations will probably be shared in small towns.)

[vsatman]

They have filed with the FCC for 1mil base stations (presumably in the US). Lets assume they get $100-500 a month per (those base stations serve to 100s of users so 1-5$/mo/user). And $100m-500m/mo revenue for SpaceX from North America. About the same from Europe, presumably less from places like Africa where even $1 per user would be too much.

Sorry but you cannot connect 100 users (= homes or families ) to one terminal  via wi-fi in rural territory...

One house = one family = one user terminal = 50 USD/month = average 550..570 USD/user per year (not forget about churn)
for 1 Mio user  is revenue 560..570 Mio USD per year  is good and real business !

Compare:  Hughes had in 2017 1,26 Mio users (total in USA,Canada, Mexico, Brazil etc)
minimal tariff plan 60 USD /mo ( max is 130 USD/mo ) and 1477 Mio USD total revenue in 2017 (consumer broadband + 200+ corporate networks + military + aviation broadband + hardware delivery to more then 100 Operator in all the world) ..
https://www.hughes.com/who-we-are/resources/press-releases/echostar-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2017-results

[cro-magnon gramps]

Anyone here, heard if Starlink has applied to the CRTC in Canada for authorization to sell the base stations in Canada? Presumably they would need to pass regulatory inspection for use? The Website for Starlink does mention that the first six launches would cover the USA AND Canada.

[Kragrathea]

Sorry, I meant 100 users per in a situation like a base station with a cell tower attached like you would use in Africa.

Starlink isn't designed for one base station=one house hold. I'm not saying some people wont do that but that is not the intent. Again they have applied for 1 mil base stations in the US. That is 1 per 127 house holds. Or if they get to 3% 1 base = ~4 households.

Check me if I am wrong but phased array or not one sat can only look at so many base stations at a time before it becomes overwhelmed with signals. I think thats part of why Elon have said it isn't for urban areas. So they have to limit the total number of ground stations. And if it so cheap that everyone wants his own fast gigabit pipe to the sky they will have too many base stations to handle.  I expect it will _have_ to be priced high enough per base station to discourage one household per. 

[gongora]

Starlink isn't designed for one base station=one house hold. I'm not saying some people wont do that but that is not the intent. Again they have applied for 1 mil base stations in the US. That is 1 per 127 house holds. Or if they get to 3% 1 base = ~4 households.

Check me if I am wrong but phased array or not one sat can only look at so many base stations at a time before it becomes overwhelmed with signals. I think thats part of why Elon have said it isn't for urban areas. So they have to limit the total number of ground stations. And if it so cheap that everyone wants his own fast gigabit pipe to the sky they will have too many base stations to handle.  I expect it will _have_ to be priced high enough per base station to discourage one household per.

No.  It is designed for one antenna per household.  The 1M number is just a random round number to get started with, they have to ask for something in the license application.

[vsatman]

Anyone here, heard if Starlink has applied to the CRTC in Canada for authorization to sell the base stations in Canada? Presumably they would need to pass regulatory inspection for use? The Website for Starlink does mention that the first six launches would cover the USA AND Canada.

I mean  there are 2 different theme
1) Starlink`s satellites  will cover part of Canada territory near border with USA
2) Starlink  has to ask  Canadian Authority (=CRTC?) for right to use standart Ku Band frequency  11-14 GGz in Canada. But Canadian Satellite Operator Telesat (about 30% shares has Canada’s Public Sector Pension Investment Board )  has  13 own satellites on GSO, which use Ku band  and  plans for own LEO constelation  TeleSat LEO, (will use only Ka band) , but TeleSat LEO as constellation will compete with Starlink ..
Space X has to convince CRTC that Starlink`s constellation will not interrupt Telesat`s GSO Satellites ...

[ZChris13]

Starlink isn't designed for one base station=one house hold. I'm not saying some people wont do that but that is not the intent. Again they have applied for 1 mil base stations in the US. That is 1 per 127 house holds. Or if they get to 3% 1 base = ~4 households.

Check me if I am wrong but phased array or not one sat can only look at so many base stations at a time before it becomes overwhelmed with signals. I think thats part of why Elon have said it isn't for urban areas. So they have to limit the total number of ground stations. And if it so cheap that everyone wants his own fast gigabit pipe to the sky they will have too many base stations to handle.  I expect it will _have_ to be priced high enough per base station to discourage one household per.

One household per is the only way to for it to work in rural America, where houses are separated by miles. There is for sure a market for shared ground stations elsewhere, but it's a function of housing density. Luckily both ends work as a function of density in a way that could cancel out, we'll see if there's any dead zones where it doesn't close, other than the densest urban areas, where data demand would exceed data supply, even if you split it up.

[vsatman]

I think thats part of why Elon have said it isn't for urban areas.

I see 3 reasons:
1) In cities mostly houses had  fiber today. Why  user will change existing provider??
2) In cities  in next 2-3 years will be built 4G/5G coverage and all owners mobile pnones or  notebooks automaticallywill have access to high speed internet  without any additionally devices and new contract with new company.
3) last but not least Starlink needs  direct view on satellites with angle 25+ degrees .. constantly and 360 degrees around. In Mahnhattan this is inpossible...

[ThomasGadd]

Anyone here, heard if Starlink has applied to the CRTC in Canada for authorization to sell the base stations in Canada? Presumably they would need to pass regulatory inspection for use? The Website for Starlink does mention that the first six launches would cover the USA AND Canada.

I mean  there are 2 different theme
1) Starlink`s satellites  will cover part of Canada territory near border with USA
2) Starlink  has to ask  Canadian Authority (=CRTC?) for right to use standart Ku Band frequency  11-14 GGz in Canada. But Canadian Satellite Operator Telesat (about 30% shares has Canada’s Public Sector Pension Investment Board )  has  13 own satellites on GSO, which use Ku band  and  plans for own LEO constelation  TeleSat LEO, (will use only Ka band) , but TeleSat LEO as constellation will compete with Starlink ..
Space X has to convince CRTC that Starlink`s constellation will not interrupt Telesat`s GSO Satellites ...

By design, Starlink will not transmit if a GSO satellite is within 22 degrees (earth to satellite).

[groundbound]

1) In cities mostly houses had  fiber today. Why  user will change existing provider??

Because we absolutely hate those providers. They have abused their monopoly position for decades. I personally would pay slightly more, for slightly worse service just to act out my built-up hatred.

[vsatman]

By design, Starlink will not transmit if a GSO satellite is within 22 degrees (earth to satellite).

What I found in Space X filing to FCC   SATMOD2018110800083, SpaceX NGSO Constellation.
work area is more as 25 degrees (see attached file)

but for Anic F2, Anic F3 or Anic G1  in Winnipeg , Ottawa or Montreal   have angles 27...29 degrees and interruption is theoretically possible

[ThomasGadd]

By design, Starlink will not transmit if a GSO satellite is within 22 degrees (earth to satellite).

What I found in Space X filing to FCC   SATMOD2018110800083, SpaceX NGSO Constellation.
work area is more as 25 degrees (see attached file)

but for Anic F2, Anic F3 or Anic G1  in Winnipeg , Ottawa or Montreal   have angles 27...29 degrees and interruption is theoretically possible

I'll look where I found that number but the important point is there is an existing method for dealing with GSO satellites.

[guckyfan]

My understanding is that these are two different matters. One is the max angle sats are operating in relation to ground stations. The other is that they will not use angles close to the beam direction of a GEO satellite using the same frequency to avoid interference.

[gtae07]

1) In cities mostly houses had  fiber today. Why  user will change existing provider??

Because we absolutely hate those providers. They have abused their monopoly position for decades. I personally would pay slightly more, for slightly worse service just to act out my built-up hatred.

THIS.

I'd bet I could get plenty of people in my subdivision (~250 houses) to go in together on a Starlink terminal just to give a middle finger to our local provider (our only choice for internet service besides 4G through a cell carrier).  We have no competition here and thus we pay 3-4x what everyone else does for comparable service.  Even people living out in the sticks get better service than we do, and we're a fairly new subdivision in a growing suburb.  Up until about two years ago we were paying $70 for 5 megabit service. 

Heck, I'd drop a grand or two myself on the hardware and get my own terminal if I could. 

[2megs]

I'd bet I could get plenty of people in my subdivision (~250 houses) to go in together on a Starlink terminal just to give a middle finger to our local provider...

History suggests otherwise. When Google Fiber rolled out tremendously better service at low prices, they found way less uptake than they needed to make it viable. People just sort of shrugged and continued with whatever didn't require them to make changes or understand the difference between a kilobit and a gigabit.

We'd all make the switch in a heartbeat, but the kind of people who join an online forum to obsesses over the technical details of spacecraft aren't a representative sample of the general population. It seems most people would rather not worry about it.

[Herb Schaltegger]

I'd bet I could get plenty of people in my subdivision (~250 houses) to go in together on a Starlink terminal just to give a middle finger to our local provider...

History suggests otherwise. When Google Fiber rolled out tremendously better service at low prices, they found way less uptake than they needed to make it viable. People just sort of shrugged and continued with whatever didn't require them to make changes or understand the difference between a kilobit and a gigabit.

We'd all make the switch in a heartbeat, but the kind of people who join an online forum to obsesses over the technical details of spacecraft aren't a representative sample of the general population. It seems most people would rather not worry about it.

There’s a lot more to the story of Google Fiber’s failure regarding uptake. In my general area (Nashville), the market competitors lobbied very hard and very effectively to prevent Google from gaining access to the same pole and underground easements that they already held exclusive leases to. Consequently, Google could only penetrate those very few areas undergoing extensive in-fill redevelopment (e.g., the Gulch area near downtown, which was formerly industrial use and railyard-adjacent warehouse districts), and a few newer developments in the smaller remaining green spaces. After attempts to batter their way through the local B.S. (funded mostly by Comcast) they basically gave up.

However, in the suburban areas outside Metropolitan Davidson County area, AT&T took advantage of their pre-existing POTS easements to run fiber as built out their network. My neighborhood of a couple hundred houses was fiber’ed up over the course of a couple months. My house was the first in the neighborhood - and quite possibly my entire city - to get fiber-to-the premises over 3 years ago.

The takeaway from this being, absent well-funded and effective local and state-wide lobbying efforts by competitors to prevent uptake, new technologies can certainly take off at the right price.

[gtae07]

I'd bet I could get plenty of people in my subdivision (~250 houses) to go in together on a Starlink terminal just to give a middle finger to our local provider...

History suggests otherwise. When Google Fiber rolled out tremendously better service at low prices, they found way less uptake than they needed to make it viable. People just sort of shrugged and continued with whatever didn't require them to make changes or understand the difference between a kilobit and a gigabit.

We'd all make the switch in a heartbeat, but the kind of people who join an online forum to obsesses over the technical details of spacecraft aren't a representative sample of the general population. It seems most people would rather not worry about it.

You haven't seen the level of hatred directed at our local provider, then.  Several of my neighbors are using 4G hotspots, even at a price penalty, to avoid the cable provider. 

Plus, when you have an existing market player able to leverage the force of government to protect its business (see Herb's example) you see "apathy".