Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2

[Chris Bergin]

For links to other Starlink discussion threads, launch threads, and FCC filings take a look at the Starlink Index Thread


Thread 1:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36552.0

Articles:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/?s=Starlink

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Please don't clutter this thread with arguments about the "impact" for astronomers, etc.

[gongora]

Moved a couple posts to make a new thread in the Commercial Spaceflight section for discussing the impacts on astronomy stuff:
Impacts of Large Satellite Constellations on Astronomy

Most discussion on the impacts of satellite constellations on astronomy should go to the new thread.  Anything in this thread should be Starlink specific (such as SpaceX announcing mitigation measures specific to their satellites).

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Do we have an estimate of when the 56 "good" sats will reach their "final" orbital positions? That plus a few months for tests and software tweaks would give us a a good estimate on when to expect the next launch of the V1.0 sats for which final design decisions to pick the best design options being tested by this current V0.9 smorgasbord designs for the best price performance design finalization. Although the next batch may be a reduced variation down design set it may not yet be the V1.0 "final".

[Lar]

Or they may launch another bunch that don't necessarily incorporate everything hardwarewise that needs to change but still let them test. Getting several bunches in orbit in different phases of the process seems like good practice.

[gongora]

Or they may launch another bunch that don't necessarily incorporate everything hardwarewise that needs to change but still let them test. Getting several bunches in orbit in different phases of the process seems like good practice.

It will be very interesting to see if they request any more deviations from their license on the next set or not.  Based on what they've filed to date they should start launching with Ka-band capability on the next full launch.

[su27k]

Simulation showing the global coverage area of 6 and 12 orbital planes from early Starlink deployment:

[su27k]

Some tidbits from Tesla shareholder meeting:

https://twitter.com/jackiewattles/status/1138574349231886339

Musk just asked at Tesla shareholder meeting whether SpaceX's Starlink internet will reach cars.

His response: SpaceX probably has the most advanced phased array antenna in existence, including the military. But it's about the size of a pizza box. That would look weird on a car.

https://twitter.com/b0yle/status/1138574399890546688

Could @Tesla cars be equipped with #Starlink satellite antennas for internet connectivity? @elonmusk sounds doubtful. Pizza-size antenna would "look a little odd on the roof of a sedan." (1/3)

.@elonmusk says main value of #Starlink satellite constellation is to provide "low-latency, high-bandwidth access to relatively low-density areas" such as rural and semi-rural environments. (2/3)

#Starlink satellite service is "not ideal for high-density cities," @elonmusk says at @Tesla shareholder meeting. (3/3) cc: @SpaceX

[psionedge]

So now the key market is people that could buy service from HNS and Viasat?

I thought the low-latency was the key to unlocking big money in HFT markets.

[Robotbeat]

So now the key market is people that could buy service from HNS and Viasat?

I thought the low-latency was the key to unlocking big money in HFT markets.

The HFT telecon market is small. There’s not “big money” there. This idea was never mentioned by Elon or SpaceX, it’s just an internet thing.

Realize that HFT markets have dedicated point to point microwave links that for the most part can get even lower latency.

[Zed_Noir]

Some tidbits from Tesla shareholder meeting:

https://twitter.com/jackiewattles/status/1138574349231886339

Musk just asked at Tesla shareholder meeting whether SpaceX's Starlink internet will reach cars.

His response: SpaceX probably has the most advanced phased array antenna in existence, including the military. But it's about the size of a pizza box. That would look weird on a car.

https://twitter.com/b0yle/status/1138574399890546688

Could @Tesla cars be equipped with #Starlink satellite antennas for internet connectivity? @elonmusk sounds doubtful. Pizza-size antenna would "look a little odd on the roof of a sedan." (1/3)

.@elonmusk says main value of #Starlink satellite constellation is to provide "low-latency, high-bandwidth access to relatively low-density areas" such as rural and semi-rural environments. (2/3)

#Starlink satellite service is "not ideal for high-density cities," @elonmusk says at @Tesla shareholder meeting. (3/3) cc: @SpaceX

Tesla could integrated the receiving antennas for Starlink to areas of the bodywork that isn't glass. Like the frunk lid, trunk lid, door panel, etc. on cars, SUVs & pickup trucks.

However mounting a pizza box size trainable antenna on the Tesla semi seem a lot more doable. Think most trucking companies wants internet connectivity with their trucks just for vehicle tracking alone.

[Tulse]

However mounting a pizza box size trainable antenna on the Tesla semi seem a lot more doable. Think most trucking companies wants internet connectivity with their trucks just for vehicle tracking alone.

And I would think that semis are also far more likely to be out of range of cell data coverage than passenger vehicles are.

[Marine_Mustang]

However mounting a pizza box size trainable antenna on the Tesla semi seem a lot more doable. Think most trucking companies wants internet connectivity with their trucks just for vehicle tracking alone.

One great application is for real-time, high-quality video from anywhere without the high fees associated with cellular data connections. Many trucking companies have installed multiple cameras on their truck fleets, including in the cab, and monitor those feeds for driver noncompliance with regulations and for instant review of footage when sensors indicate there has been a collision. I have family members that worked in that area; reviewing video in real-time or near real-time. Of course, there's also the need for vehicle location tracking, but other data that would be useful is telemetry for certain kinds of cargo; e.g. temperature of refrigerated trucks, monitoring of hazardous loads, etc.

[Tulse]

And real-time monitoring of cargo trucks will become vital once autonomous driving becomes more commonplace.

[niwax]

While we're on this tangent, where Starlink really makes sense is for remote locations that need a solid data connections, like Superchargers. Not only do they need to be connected for billing, they are playing around with offering Wifi so the car can download updates and upload feedback while it charges.

[Robotbeat]

And real-time monitoring of cargo trucks will become vital once autonomous driving becomes more commonplace.

Already a thing.

[AC in NC]

And real-time monitoring of cargo trucks will become vital once autonomous driving becomes more commonplace.

Already a thing.

Likely not at the scale, granularity, and fidelity necessary given the potential adoption magnitude and liabilities?

[LiamS]

just doing some back of the napkin calculations, during the tesla earnings call said that they want starlink to serve 3-5% of the worlds population, using an arbitrary monthly price of $50 starlink would earn:

For 3%
11.3 B/month or 135.5 B/year

For 5%
18.8 B/month or 225.9 B/year

Thats a lot or revenue

[docmordrid]

>
For 3%
11.3 B/month or 135.5 B/year

For 5%
18.8 B/month or 225.9 B/year

Thats a lot or revenue

Mars Needs Women,...men, hardware, habitats, boring/drilling equipment, Tesla-M vehicles, reactors....and Musk could take Tesla private.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

>
For 3%
11.3 B/month or 135.5 B/year

For 5%
18.8 B/month or 225.9 B/year

Thats a lot or revenue

Mars Needs Women,...men, hardware, habitats, boring/drilling equipment, Tesla-M vehicles, reactors....and Musk could take Tesla private.

Even if they only achieve .3% in 10 years that is still $13B to$23B.

[Kragrathea]

just doing some back of the napkin calculations, during the tesla earnings call said that they want starlink to serve 3-5% of the worlds population, using an arbitrary monthly price of $50 starlink would earn:

For 3%
11.3 B/month or 135.5 B/year

For 5%
18.8 B/month or 225.9 B/year

Thats a lot or revenue

The vast majority of those 3% could never afford $50 a month.  And I doubt they get more than %30 of any market.

I think a more realistic back of the napkin is this. They have filed with the FCC for 1mil base stations (presumably in the US). Lets assume they get $100-500 a month per (those base stations serve to 100s of users so 1-5$/mo/user). And $100m-500m/mo revenue for SpaceX from North America. About the same from Europe, presumably less from places like Africa where even $1 per user would be too much.