Total Members Voted: 175
Voting closed: 07/23/2016 11:49 pm
I really can't believe that SpaceX would announce their intention to launch Red Dragon to Mars in the 2018 synod unless there was a complete, detailed design for the entire Red Dragon configuration (including all systems in the trunk) and for how that spacecraft will be operated and managed throughout its mission. And I'd have to believe that metal is already being bent on the spacecraft that will be sent to Mars.
Quote from: the_other_Doug on 06/24/2016 12:37 amI really can't believe that SpaceX would announce their intention to launch Red Dragon to Mars in the 2018 synod unless there was a complete, detailed design for the entire Red Dragon configuration (including all systems in the trunk) and for how that spacecraft will be operated and managed throughout its mission. And I'd have to believe that metal is already being bent on the spacecraft that will be sent to Mars.Heh, that's funny. You mean like how Elon only told his propulsion guys about how Merlin-1D was now going to be a 140klbf engine the day before his Falcon Heavy announcement? IIRC they had just come to tell Elon that they had managed to get the Merlin 1D test to a higher thrust than expected: ~124klbf.And when has anything SpaceX proposed actually happened on time? Why do we expect this time it will be different? Was Falcon Heavy not important to Elon? Commercial Crew flights? Etc?I actually think his idea of a regular milk-run to Mars is brilliant, I just think that people who believe this time will be different need to make a stronger case for why.~Jon
I'd like to preface this with the caveat that we're talking about SpaceX here, and sometimes they do employ, shall we say, innovative development techniques. But, that said...
And when has anything SpaceX proposed actually happened on time? Why do we expect this time it will be different?
I voted 2020. I disagree with the idea that Elon will just go with whatever SpaceX has ready in a 2018 timeframe. Mars is the whole reason SpaceX exists, so SpaceX's first attempt at going to Mars has huge importance and significance. Elon will want to maximise chances of success. Also commercial crew has a lot riding on it and politically Elon will want to prioritise that if any conflicts arise. If everything goes perfectly I think 2018 is possible, but more realistically it'll be 2020.