Total Members Voted: 142
Voting closed: 04/10/2018 11:47 pm
Quote from: QuantumG on 03/19/2018 10:08 pmhttps://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/975870365338558464"est. completion 16-18 months (NET H2 2019)" for the facility in which BFS will be built. Seems like Elon's claim that BFS will be flying early next year is already slipping into late next year... or 2020.16-18 months is the expected completion for Phase II, which includes an expansion of a 65,000 square foot facility that will be built in Phase I. The scheduling for completion of Phase I was not detailed.
https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/975870365338558464"est. completion 16-18 months (NET H2 2019)" for the facility in which BFS will be built. Seems like Elon's claim that BFS will be flying early next year is already slipping into late next year... or 2020.
16-18 months is the expected completion for Phase II, which includes an expansion of a 65,000 square foot facility that will be built in Phase I. The scheduling for completion of Phase I was not detailed.
There's a variety of stages they can choose to show it at I suppose. Maybe they've finished the tank part of the structure. Or all the pieces but not assembled yet. It'll be interesting regardless. We'll see in August+Elontime!
Hmmm.. Elon hinting at new information soon. Could be an unveiling?
Quote from: QuantumG on 07/14/2018 06:40 amHmmm.. Elon hinting at new information soon. Could be an unveiling?Bit early for that isn’t it even by ‘Elon time’?
Quote from: Star One on 07/14/2018 11:39 amQuote from: QuantumG on 07/14/2018 06:40 amHmmm.. Elon hinting at new information soon. Could be an unveiling?Bit early for that isn’t it even by ‘Elon time’?Hints from various places seem to indicate that it could be Raptor.I think if it is going to be August, it's going to be either 'Raptor works and we've done 25 missions worth of firing on one engine' or a full scale pressurised tank.
there will be no hint of a full up BFS until well into 2020.
Quote from: TripleSeven on 07/14/2018 05:13 pmthere will be no hint of a full up BFS until well into 2020.What do you mean by that? BFS + BFB or BFS with heatshield and vacuum raptors. It
there will be no flight worthy hardware of any kind until maybe 2020 and that is pushing it...more like 2021
Quote from: TripleSeven on 07/14/2018 05:13 pmthere will be no hint of a full up BFS until well into 2020.Aren’t they supposed to be flying a scaled down BFS in 2019?
Quote from: TripleSeven on 07/14/2018 07:41 pmthere will be no flight worthy hardware of any kind until maybe 2020 and that is pushing it...more like 2021(fan) Thanks for your opinion. Not everyone agrees, I expect.(mod) But bare assertions without at least some supporting details and exposition don't add a lot of value.
the Boeing 777X of which I am very familiar with (I am a test pilot on it for my airline) started in 2013 and will deliver in 2019...its a derivative of a proven design ...Elon wont beat that time span
Quote from: TripleSeven on 07/14/2018 09:06 pmthe Boeing 777X of which I am very familiar with (I am a test pilot on it for my airline) started in 2013 and will deliver in 2019...its a derivative of a proven design ...Elon wont beat that time span Or, more seriously, it's because rocketry is an industry that has changed a lot more recently while commercial jets already have settled on the design that works and are optimizing for fuel and maintenance economy. They tried going bigger and going past the sound barrier but the existing convention won out over both. When you have already got the design and are just optimizing it, the gains are more modest so the urgency is much lower. On the other hand when you are starting new the sooner you get a prototype, the sooner you start learning from it so the urgency is much higher.One more time for good measure.
From a historical and technological development "interest" human space travel was just born to early...it was forced by cold war politics, particularly in human space flight to a level that was unsustainable from an economic standpoint...and then crashed fairly quickly when the interest dissolved. Anyone who had half a brain in the 80's could see almost from the start the shuttle system did not have a chance of working...
Quote from: TripleSeven on 07/15/2018 04:58 amFrom a historical and technological development "interest" human space travel was just born to early...it was forced by cold war politics, particularly in human space flight to a level that was unsustainable from an economic standpoint...and then crashed fairly quickly when the interest dissolved. Anyone who had half a brain in the 80's could see almost from the start the shuttle system did not have a chance of working...The hardware for doing first stage recoveries ala falcon 9 was available quite early - it was basically in more-or-less its modern state in 1986 when GPS kicked off. Even moderately before then. In 1966, it would have been a considerably larger penalty, and would likely have involved several more ships to do ranging for example.The key wasn't the technology, but the approach.BFR, if it is in fact reusable to the extent hoped, or close, will have succeeded if it wholly fails to meet its goals on payload.Fifty tons to orbit will not meaningfully affect any applications. (before ISRU on Mars kicks off).