Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Cross-post:

https://twitter.com/tgmetsfan98/status/1532091055251804161

In February, NASA announced that it had awarded SpaceX 3 additional Crew Dragon missions to the ISS. However, this notice says that SpaceX has been awarded 5 additional missions:

twitter.com/nasaprocurement/status/1532067026147364865

Kennedy Space Center has a special notice regarding 'Notice Of Intent (noi) To Issue A Sole Source Modification – NASA Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services'. See: sam.gov/opp/62c5cba7a9…

[yg1968]

Thomas is confused, this is for 5 more missions. So NASA is adding 8 missions in total (3 in the first sole-source solicitation and 5 more in the second one). This is for crew Dragon rides until 2030.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55039.msg2317261#msg2317261

[whitelancer64]

Cross-post:

https://twitter.com/tgmetsfan98/status/1532091055251804161

In February, NASA announced that it had awarded SpaceX 3 additional Crew Dragon missions to the ISS. However, this notice says that SpaceX has been awarded 5 additional missions:

twitter.com/nasaprocurement/status/1532067026147364865

Kennedy Space Center has a special notice regarding 'Notice Of Intent (noi) To Issue A Sole Source Modification – NASA Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services'. See: sam.gov/opp/62c5cba7a9…

The February award stipulates the contract runs through March 31, 2028.

This award says it runs to 2030. I think these are 5 additonal flights on top of the 3 previously awarded. it might indicate that SpaceX could be the sole crew rotation provider for the ISS in 2029 / 2030.

[DanClemmensen]

In February, NASA announced that it had awarded SpaceX 3 additional Crew Dragon missions to the ISS. However, this notice says that SpaceX has been awarded 5 additional missions:

Kennedy Space Center has a special notice regarding 'Notice Of Intent (noi) To Issue A Sole Source Modification – NASA Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services'. See: sam.gov/opp/62c5cba7a9…

I'm not an expert at decoding contracts, but as I recall the February announcement did not "award" any missions. It extended the number of "optional" missions from four to seven, on top of the two firm missions that were part of the original CTTCap. By contrast, this announcement seems to say that NASA is "awarding" five missions on top of the four missions that have already been awarded and flown.
in summary:
   original contract:   2 awarded, four optional
   February 2022:     2 awarded, seven optional    (extension by 3 optional)
   June 2022:            4 already flown, five awarded.

[yg1968]

No, the 3 missions were awarded earlier this year per the NASA press release. The announcement of today is a notice of intent but it would be surprising if it doesn't result in 5 more missions being awarded to SpaceX. So SpaceX gets 14 post-certification missions.

[yg1968]

The February award stipulates the contract runs through March 31, 2028.

The starting date of the February contract was in 2023 (if needed). But if you look at the current schedule, SpaceX-6 would be in 2023. Overall, I get an extra mission for SpaceX in 2023 (or in 2029 if Boeing-1 is ready in 2023) but other than that, it's one per year for SpaceX.

2023 SpaceX-6 and 7
2024 SpaceX-8 and Boeing-1
2025 SpaceX-9 and Boeing-2
2026 SpaceX-10 and Boeing-3
2027 SpaceX-11 and Boeing-4
2028 SpaceX-12 and Boeing-5
2029- SpaceX-13 and Boeing-6
2030- SpaceX-14 and perhaps one other mission to be awarded.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Crew_Program

[yg1968]

https://twitter.com/cbs_spacenews/status/1532342597791916032

https://twitter.com/cbs_spacenews/status/1532342905406476288

[hektor]

With only four Crew Dragon built, and taking into account the additional flights (4 for Axiom, two for Polaris and 1 for Inspiration 4) does that mean that they will exceed five flights / Dragon.

[DanClemmensen]

With only four Crew Dragon built, and taking into account the additional flights (4 for Axiom, two for Polaris and 1 for Inspiration 4) does that mean that they will exceed five flights / Dragon.

14 + 4 +1 =19, but we must add one for demo-2. Demo-1 flew on an early capsule that was later accidentally destroyed, so it does not count against the current fleet. Thus, we have 20 flights and four capsules, so technically we get 5 flights/capsule, but that leaves no margin for new sales, missions to Axiom-1, or loss of a capsule.

My guess: SpaceX plans to get Starship crew-qualified at least for all non-ISS missions so it can retire Dragon and Falcon 9. Thus, they will avoid extending Dragon past these 20 missions. They will even make an effort to somehow use Starship to replace Crew Dragon and Cargo Dragon for CCP and CRS flights to the ISS so they can retire F9 and Dragon as early as is feasible. Maintaining the Dragon and Falcon 9 infrastructure (factory, fleet, refurbishment,...) to support only a few missions per year is not cost-effective.

[hektor]

Why don't you take into account the two Polaris missions with Dragon (Polaris Dawn and the second one). That makes 22.

Or do you consider that there will only be 2 Axiom flights and 2 Polaris flights ?

[DanClemmensen]

Why don't you take into account the two Polaris missions with Dragon (Polaris Dawn and the second one). That makes 22.

Because I messed it up and didn't check my work? OK we have 22 total missions for the four capsules.

My guess: If they cannot get Starship crew-qualified by 2028 and shift two non-ISS Crew Dragon missions to Starship, then they will agree with NASA to fly two of the capsules a sixth time rather than building a new one.

[JayWee]

Isn't it also likely there will be more Axiom flights? Especially once they a) add another ISS module b) add another ISS docking port.

[whitelancer64]

...... The obvious solution here is that the Crew Dragon capsules will fly more than 5 times each.

[Robotbeat]

Cross-post:

https://twitter.com/tgmetsfan98/status/1532091055251804161

In February, NASA announced that it had awarded SpaceX 3 additional Crew Dragon missions to the ISS. However, this notice says that SpaceX has been awarded 5 additional missions:

twitter.com/nasaprocurement/status/1532067026147364865

Kennedy Space Center has a special notice regarding 'Notice Of Intent (noi) To Issue A Sole Source Modification – NASA Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services'. See: sam.gov/opp/62c5cba7a9…

The February award stipulates the contract runs through March 31, 2028.

This award says it runs to 2030. I think these are 5 additonal flights on top of the 3 previously awarded. it might indicate that SpaceX could be the sole crew rotation provider for the ISS in 2029 / 2030.

That’s not what the document says.  The 5 additional missions is to backfill for the delays of Starliner that has caused SpaceX to have to launch more missions earlier.

[whitelancer64]

Cross-post:

*snip tweet*

In February, NASA announced that it had awarded SpaceX 3 additional Crew Dragon missions to the ISS. However, this notice says that SpaceX has been awarded 5 additional missions:

*snip tweet*

Kennedy Space Center has a special notice regarding 'Notice Of Intent (noi) To Issue A Sole Source Modification – NASA Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services'. See: sam.gov/opp/62c5cba7a9…

The February award stipulates the contract runs through March 31, 2028.

This award says it runs to 2030. I think these are 5 additonal flights on top of the 3 previously awarded. it might indicate that SpaceX could be the sole crew rotation provider for the ISS in 2029 / 2030.

That’s not what the document says.  The 5 additional missions is to backfill for the delays of Starliner that has caused SpaceX to have to launch more missions earlier.

Yes, yg1968 already clarified that here:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49156.msg2373573#msg2373573

[FutureSpaceTourist]

twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1532469243530338320

NASA's announcement of additional Crew Dragon seat purchases is a bigger deal than I initially realized. It looks like NASA has now bought the remainder of seats needed to keep the International Space Station fully crewed into 2030.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1532469850425155593

Also, if you're keeping score at home, it appears probable that SpaceX will end up flying 14 crewed ISS missions for NASA, and Boeing 6. This does not include private missions to the station, such as for Axiom Space. Those will also likely all fly on Dragon.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/06/nasa-just-bought-all-the-seats-needed-for-space-station-crews-into-2030/

[yg1968]

NASA to Purchase Additional Commercial Crew Missions:
https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2022/06/01/nasa-to-purchase-additional-commercial-crew-missions/

The current sole source modification does not preclude NASA from seeking additional contract modifications in the future for additional transportation services as needed.

[yg1968]

NASA to buy five additional Crew Dragon flights:
https://spacenews.com/nasa-to-buy-five-additional-crew-dragon-flights/

[yg1968]

https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1547930312490987521

[abaddon]

Presumably this seat arrangement only applies to Dragon and Soyuz, given the lack of track record and even certification of Starliner at this point.  It took two demo flights and three and a half missions, plus some unknown number of Cargo V2 missions with some similarity (e.g. parachutes) before Russia agreed to fly on Crew Dragon.  If the same kind of track record is required for Starliner it almost doesn't seem worth the effort given the low number of planned flights.

Not having seat swaps on alternating flights (once Starliner is certified by NASA and in rotation) seems non-optimal but unavoidable to me.