Author Topic: Will Ares I be cancelled?  (Read 41675 times)

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #40 on: 08/09/2007 07:47 pm »
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Jim - 9/8/2007  2:22 PM

EELV's wouldn't use LC-39.  The D-IV pad is up and running and has vehicle on it

These are good points Jim and maybe early test launches would fly from there but I doubt the NASA safety guys would be excited about watching their man rated booster consumed in flames for the first few seconds of flight.  The collective gasp of the viewing public the first time that happened would be heard nation wide.

It would be lots of work to convert LC39 facilities but would have to be less than the work required for Ares 1, probably by half if the vehicle is half the height and way lighter.  You could pay for very extensive modifications to an existing MLP for the cost of the proposed Ares 1 MLP

Another solution would be to use the RS-68 engine with a new body.  So it would essentially be a Delta 4, dress up the public presentation as propaganda and go with it.

But if not, if you could fly it from 37 or 41 then so much the better.  That really puts industry in the loop which is claimed to be something they want anyway.  As well as putting manned launches back on the CCAFS side which would be cool.

Of the images presented I think the Delta 4 looks more 'Right' than the Atlas.  Proportions are more pleasing which isn't good rocket science but apparently neither is 'Da Stick.'

Questions:
1) What is the cost and schedule comparison of man rating the RS-68 compared to a 5-Segment booster?  
2) What upper stage engine would a Delta 4 CEV launch vehicle use, RL-10 or J-2X?
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline Danny Dot

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #41 on: 08/09/2007 07:52 pm »
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wannamoonbase - 9/8/2007  2:47 PM

snip

2) What upper stage engine would a Delta 4 CEV launch vehicle use, RL-10 or J-2X?

When I was working Delta/CEV for NASA the plan was for the RL-10.  But it was underpowered a bit.

Danny Deger
Danny Deger

Offline gladiator1332

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #42 on: 08/09/2007 08:14 pm »
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vt_hokie - 9/8/2007  2:53 PM

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gladiator1332 - 9/8/2007  2:43 PM

Kinda how there are contracted out versions of the F-16 flying and built by other countries.

There's a Japanese variant, but I think it's different enough that it has its own designation.  But I digress...

Yeah it is made by Mitsubishi. It has two seats and I believe there is a strong difference in the canopy. I think the Israeli's have their own version too.

Offline meiza

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #43 on: 08/09/2007 08:37 pm »
How much do Delta IV and Atlas V pads cost? Can existing other buildings be used for pre-pad functions?
Is the existing infrastructure very far away at the air force side?

Offline bad_astra

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #44 on: 08/09/2007 10:22 pm »
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pad rat - 9/8/2007  3:50 PM

The pads represent roughly $300M apiece.

In perspective, though, that's less then the cost of Ares 1-X.
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Offline texas_space

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #45 on: 08/10/2007 01:05 am »
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gladiator1332 - 9/8/2007  3:14 PM

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vt_hokie - 9/8/2007  2:53 PM

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gladiator1332 - 9/8/2007  2:43 PM

Kinda how there are contracted out versions of the F-16 flying and built by other countries.

There's a Japanese variant, but I think it's different enough that it has its own designation.  But I digress...

Yeah it is made by Mitsubishi. It has two seats and I believe there is a strong difference in the canopy. I think the Israeli's have their own version too.

Actually the Japanese version is considered different enough to have a separate designation, the F-2.  Lots of Japanese components, composite wings, etc. It is actually in a book of the world's worst aircraft (due to extremely high cost).  The Japanese would have gotten more bang for their yen if they just licence built or outright bought the F-16.
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Offline quark

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #46 on: 08/10/2007 01:37 am »
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bad_astra - 9/8/2007  4:22 PM

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pad rat - 9/8/2007  3:50 PM

The pads represent roughly $300M apiece.

In perspective, though, that's less then the cost of Ares 1-X.

It's hugely less.  And that assumes you need to buy a whole new pad.  Human rating Atlas for commercial applications is something like $100M.  Assume NASA would want it's own VIF and MLP and add another $300M.  Then assume another $100M for additional NASA stuff and you're still only at $500M.  Throw in another $200M to finish Atlas V Heavy and you have a grand total of $700M for a human rated launcher that can deliver 28mT DIRECTLY to 220nm circular at 28.5 deg.  All of Orion's weight issues would then instantly vanish.  In contrast to a $8B development cost for a launcher that can deliver only 23 mT to sub-leo.

Some other benefits:  Vibration environments a factor of 2 less.  Max dynamic pressure only 450 psf (vs 830 psf for Ares).  Orion LAS requirements vastly relieved because you can shut down the booster engines during an abort event.  A development time of only 3 years (available in 2010 if started now).  Engines that are already developed, qualified and flying, vehicle system already flight proven, a development team that's DONE IT BEFORE.

So what's wrong with this picture?

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #47 on: 08/10/2007 01:57 am »
The problem is that NASA has to start work on the Ares V this year and can no longer hide the long development time.

Online EE Scott

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #48 on: 08/10/2007 02:05 am »
quark - your argument is a pretty powerful one.  I would probably be a little skeptical of the development time of 3 years, but 48 months would be OK as well.  And of course folks will say "what about the STS workforce? - going to Atlas is politically un-doable", blah, blah blah.  

And what about those black zones???  Just kidding.
Scott

Offline bad_astra

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #49 on: 08/10/2007 02:07 am »
There is no problem. NASA could scrap Ares I, decide to go with EELV for ISS and start working on Ares V today, if they wanted to and it's hard to imagine even Utah congressmen objecting. But when you have so many egos involved who have the audacity to think only they know the way to do things and everyone else is clearly out to do destroy the VSE, then you get a bunker mentality that will not be open to new idea.
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Online EE Scott

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #50 on: 08/10/2007 02:17 am »
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bad_astra - 9/8/2007  10:07 PM

There is no problem. NASA could scrap Ares I, decide to go with EELV for ISS and start working on Ares V today, if they wanted to and it's hard to imagine even Utah congressmen objecting. But when you have so many egos involved who have the audacity to think only they know the way to do things and everyone else is clearly out to do destroy the VSE, then you get a bunker mentality that will not be open to new idea.

And that is what is so maddening about all this -- Mike Griffin talks about how the manned spaceflight gap is unseemly, and something we will come to regret, yet he has directly led the agency down a path that excludes relatively straightforward fixes to the gap.  That is why I voted for Ares I being cancelled and EELVs taking its and Ares V place.  The truth will eventually get out.
Scott

Offline Jim

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #51 on: 08/10/2007 02:24 am »
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EE Scott - 9/8/2007  10:05 PM

  I would probably be a little skeptical of the development time of 3 years, but 48 months would be OK as well..

It went to CDR.  No design is needed. Just procurement and built of GSE

Offline kfsorensen

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #52 on: 08/10/2007 02:58 am »
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quark - 9/8/2007  8:37 PM

So what's wrong with this picture?

Nothing technical, and once Horowitz and Griffin leave, nothing political.

Online edkyle99

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #53 on: 08/10/2007 03:15 am »
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quark - 9/8/2007  8:37 PM
Atlas V Heavy ... 28mT DIRECTLY to 220nm circular at 28.5 deg.
In contrast to a $8B development cost for a launcher that can deliver only 23 mT to sub-leo.


According to the ESAS report, a "stock" Atlas V Heavy would only be able to do 26.3 metric tons (tonnes) to the Orion ascent trajectory.  

Ares I will be able to boost 26.45 tonnes into the Orion ascent orbit for lunar missions according to the following report, not "only 23" [tonnes] as you state.  

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1190

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #54 on: 08/10/2007 03:16 am »
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bad_astra - 9/8/2007  5:22 PM

Quote
pad rat - 9/8/2007  3:50 PM

The pads represent roughly $300M apiece.

In perspective, though, that's less then the cost of Ares 1-X.

The following article states that the Ares I-X test will cost about $300 million.  

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=4855

 - Ed Kyle

Offline kraisee

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #55 on: 08/10/2007 08:12 am »
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edkyle99 - 9/8/2007  11:15 PM

According to the ESAS report, a "stock" Atlas V Heavy would only be able to do 26.3 metric tons (tonnes) to the Orion ascent trajectory.  

ESAS Atlas V Heavy performance was actually 30mT to 60x160nm, 28.5deg, and 27mT to 60x220nm, 51.6deg.   Higher by 4mT and 3mT respectively than the 5-seg/J-2S+ CLV option.

Ross.
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Online EE Scott

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #56 on: 08/10/2007 10:45 am »
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Jim - 9/8/2007  10:24 PM

Quote
EE Scott - 9/8/2007  10:05 PM

  I would probably be a little skeptical of the development time of 3 years, but 48 months would be OK as well..

It went to CDR.  No design is needed. Just procurement and built of GSE

My thinking on this is based on the 30-month lead-time figure that I have read for a standard Atlas V Heavy.  If I add in extra time for the addition of integrating man-rated systems (extra systems-health monitoring hardware, pad alterations, testing, etc.) it seemed to me that it might be safe to add a bit more timeline padding.
Scott

Offline CuddlyRocket

Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #57 on: 08/10/2007 11:13 am »
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vanilla - 10/8/2007  3:58 AM

Nothing technical, and once Horowitz and Griffin leave, nothing political.
The naivety is sweet! Nothing political? NASA is always political - politics is the most important thing. Far more than engineering or science, for example.

I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed when Horowitz and Griffin leave. Nothing will change. The new administrator will get the same political messages.

Offline William Barton

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #58 on: 08/10/2007 11:39 am »
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kraisee - 10/8/2007  4:12 AM

Quote
edkyle99 - 9/8/2007  11:15 PM

According to the ESAS report, a "stock" Atlas V Heavy would only be able to do 26.3 metric tons (tonnes) to the Orion ascent trajectory.  

ESAS Atlas V Heavy performance was actually 30mT to 60x160nm, 28.5deg, and 27mT to 60x220nm, 51.6deg.   Higher by 4mT and 3mT respectively than the 5-seg/J-2S+ CLV option.

Ross.

That table has always seemed to suggest (to me anyway) that human-rated DIV with New US is the best deal, even compared to 4seg+SSME, and much better than 5seg+J2S. LOC/LOM numbers notwithstanding, of course.

Offline Jim

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Re: Will Ares I be cancelled?
« Reply #59 on: 08/10/2007 11:57 am »
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CuddlyRocket - 10/8/2007  7:13 AM
 The new administrator will get the same political messages.

Not if they don't have the same agenda.

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