Author Topic: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell  (Read 39872 times)

Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #40 on: 04/16/2018 06:41 PM »
Why? They certainly don't lack ambition and know that fantasies remain fantasies until someone actually tries to make them reality.
I mean, if their plans succeed they could very well become one of the most valuable companies in the world.
Now they are  forced by their limited budget to be a lot more pragmatic, but in the future nothing would prevent them from establishing very well funded R&D divisions. A bit like Google/Alphabet.
Failure is not only an option, it's the only way to learn.
"Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the custody of fire" - Gustav Mahler

Online Jimmy Murdok

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 151
  • Tokyo - Barcelona
  • Liked: 86
  • Likes Given: 82
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #41 on: 04/16/2018 07:02 PM »
Once there is an established industry on orbit and beyond, and if they have tones of cash, working on interstellar capacities is not that out of the scope. Nuclear reactors, advanced electric engines, farms of solar panels, big lasers, big sails... no need of exotic concepts, engineering can start to play

Offline richie2k3

Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #42 on: 04/17/2018 01:37 PM »
Sorry if this is off-topic, but does anbody have a link to the TedTalk? :)
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives"

Online speedevil

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2058
  • Fife
  • Liked: 1008
  • Likes Given: 1126
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #43 on: 04/17/2018 01:43 PM »
Sorry if this is off-topic, but does anbody have a link to the TedTalk? :)

As mentioned upthread - but it's $25 to access.

Offline richie2k3

Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #44 on: 04/17/2018 02:03 PM »
Sorry if this is off-topic, but does anbody have a link to the TedTalk? :)

As mentioned upthread - but it's $25 to access.

Sorry i missed this :) - are they usally chargable? I thought TED was 'Not for profit' --- for the greater good' etc...

Anyone know the timeframe/likelyhood of this getting on the TED youtube channel?
« Last Edit: 04/17/2018 02:04 PM by richie2k3 »
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives"

Online Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 28049
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 7861
  • Likes Given: 5233
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #45 on: 04/17/2018 02:08 PM »
High, and any time between now and months from now.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Roy_H

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 858
  • Liked: 246
  • Likes Given: 1404
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #46 on: 04/17/2018 07:04 PM »
Sorry i missed this :) - are they usally chargable? I thought TED was 'Not for profit' --- for the greater good' etc...
"Not for profit" doesn't mean free. It means lowest possible cost. I am sure they have lots of expenses to cover.
"If we don't achieve re-usability, I will consider SpaceX to be a failure." - Elon Musk

Offline Dave G

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2130
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 1123
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #47 on: 04/17/2018 08:04 PM »
I see Gwynne's interstellar remark as both a glib throw away and a personal fantasy but known to her, an engineer, as being fantasy.

I see it as vision.

Like most things, it will boil down to economics.  Once they're flying thousands of people to Mars on a regular basis, building a massive interstellar ship may not be that much of a stretch.

The problem will be volunteers.  At least initially, you'll need people that are willing to spend their entire life on the ship, and have their offspring be the ones to explore other solar systems.  So the ship will need to be the size of a small city, something like a modern cruise ship, assembled in space.  Something big enough, and with enough other people that it would be comfortable to spend a lifetime there.

After Mars has been settled, I see that as the next big thing.

And with a huge fully reusable launcher, it may not be fantasy.  Remember, BFR will cost less to launch than Falcon 1.

Offline llanitedave

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2138
  • Nevada Desert
  • Liked: 1315
  • Likes Given: 1545
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #48 on: 04/17/2018 08:28 PM »
I see Gwynne's interstellar remark as both a glib throw away and a personal fantasy but known to her, an engineer, as being fantasy.

I see it as vision.

Like most things, it will boil down to economics.  Once they're flying thousands of people to Mars on a regular basis, building a massive interstellar ship may not be that much of a stretch.

The problem will be volunteers.  At least initially, you'll need people that are willing to spend their entire life on the ship, and have their offspring be the ones to explore other solar systems.  So the ship will need to be the size of a small city, something like a modern cruise ship, assembled in space.  Something big enough, and with enough other people that it would be comfortable to spend a lifetime there.

After Mars has been settled, I see that as the next big thing.

And with a huge fully reusable launcher, it may not be fantasy.  Remember, BFR will cost less to launch than Falcon 1.


Only if it comes back.  If it's heading out into the void, it'll be nice and pricey.
"I've just abducted an alien -- now what?"

Offline Roy_H

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 858
  • Liked: 246
  • Likes Given: 1404
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #49 on: 04/17/2018 09:15 PM »
I see Gwynne's interstellar remark as both a glib throw away and a personal fantasy but known to her, an engineer, as being fantasy.

I see it as vision.

Like most things, it will boil down to economics.  Once they're flying thousands of people to Mars on a regular basis, building a massive interstellar ship may not be that much of a stretch.

The problem will be volunteers.  At least initially, you'll need people that are willing to spend their entire life on the ship, and have their offspring be the ones to explore other solar systems.  So the ship will need to be the size of a small city, something like a modern cruise ship, assembled in space.  Something big enough, and with enough other people that it would be comfortable to spend a lifetime there.

After Mars has been settled, I see that as the next big thing.

And with a huge fully reusable launcher, it may not be fantasy.  Remember, BFR will cost less to launch than Falcon 1.

I think human interstellar travel is a long way off. I imagine Shotwell was talking about a probe.
"If we don't achieve re-usability, I will consider SpaceX to be a failure." - Elon Musk

Online Jimmy Murdok

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 151
  • Tokyo - Barcelona
  • Liked: 86
  • Likes Given: 82
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #50 on: 04/17/2018 09:49 PM »
"Not for profit" doesn't mean free. It means lowest possible cost. I am sure they have lots of expenses to cover.
In the era of Netflix flat rates, I find 25$ a bit elitist for a video of a non profit that quotes “Ideas worth spreading”. Who knows maybe Gwyne is so expensive to bring, but I understand is part of her job.
« Last Edit: 04/17/2018 09:53 PM by Jimmy Murdok »

Online clongton

  • Expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10481
  • Connecticut
    • Direct Launcher
  • Liked: 2472
  • Likes Given: 872
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #51 on: 04/17/2018 10:06 PM »
Sorry i missed this :) - are they usally chargable? I thought TED was 'Not for profit' --- for the greater good' etc...
"Not for profit" doesn't mean free. It means lowest possible cost. I am sure they have lots of expenses to cover.

I have never had to pay to watch a TED talk - ever. Is this new?
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline tater

  • Member
  • Posts: 41
  • NM
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 57
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #52 on: 04/17/2018 10:12 PM »
It might be that it airs free after some time period, and people desperate to watch earlier have to pay. Think of it like L2. Stuff there right away, but eventually it makes it out.

Offline ClayJar

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 394
  • Baton Rouge, LA, USA
  • Liked: 820
  • Likes Given: 72
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #53 on: 04/17/2018 11:16 PM »
I have never had to pay to watch a TED talk - ever. Is this new?

It's relatively new, but it's in addition to the free option.  As I recall, I used to see the option to pay for the full live streaming package (and decline to do so due to price), but after that, there was no option but to wait for the TED Talks to show up for free streaming at an indeterminate point in the future.  The intermediate step of having a less expensive paid option for non-live but basically immediate streaming just adds an additional option.

Personally, I'm content to wait until I can watch it free, but it is just a bit more tempting at $25 for the session than it was at full price for the whole thing.

Offline nacnud

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2214
  • Liked: 369
  • Likes Given: 177
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #54 on: 04/17/2018 11:24 PM »
I did a google (yes google is a verb now however much they defend the trademark)

https://www.ted.com/about/our-organization/how-ted-works

Quote
How does TED make money?

TED makes money through conference attendance fees, sponsorships, foundation support, licensing fees and book sales, and we spend it as soon as we get it — on video editing, web development and hosting for TED Talks and TED-Ed videos (ideas are free, but bandwidth is expensive…); support for community-driven initiatives like TEDx and the TED Fellows, and of course, paying fair salaries to staffers and interns.

Everyone who buys a pass to attend a TED conference is helping share free TED Talks video with the world, as well as supporting the TEDx program, the TED Prize, free TED Fellowships, TED-Ed video lessons and more great stuff that is shared with the world for free. For this reason, a percentage of the attendance fee is a charitable contribution.

TED Talks on the web are also supported by partnerships with carefully selected organizations; their ads on the videos and website support making TED Talks available to the world for free in many languages and on many platforms. We are very selective in the organizations we partner with. Other projects and initiatives are supported by foundation funding and individual donors.

And of course we're also supported in kind by tens of thousands of volunteers — like all the amazing translators with the Open Translation Project, TEDx organizers, TED.com conversation moderators, organizations and individuals that support the TED Prize, and everyone who ever shares a TED Talk with someone else. (Thank you!)

So will it be free soon? Best answer is, maybe.

Offline JamesH65

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 781
  • Liked: 493
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #55 on: 04/18/2018 11:52 AM »
SpaceX so far as we know is an engineering firm, not a basic technology R&D firm.

If SpaceX don't have a skunkworks R&D/investigative team somewhere I would be very very surprised.

Offline Proponent

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5381
  • Liked: 934
  • Likes Given: 615
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #56 on: 04/18/2018 11:59 AM »
Sorry i missed this :) - are they usally chargable? I thought TED was 'Not for profit' --- for the greater good' etc...
"Not for profit" doesn't mean free. It means lowest possible cost. I am sure they have lots of expenses to cover.

As  I understand it, the key thing about a non-profit organization is that any profits generated go to promoting a cause.  A non-profit can still charge (high) fees, make big profits, and pay its staff well.  The designation is effectively more about the ownership of the organization than how it operates.
« Last Edit: 04/18/2018 12:00 PM by Proponent »

Online speedevil

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2058
  • Fife
  • Liked: 1008
  • Likes Given: 1126
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #57 on: 04/18/2018 12:17 PM »
And with a huge fully reusable launcher, it may not be fantasy.  Remember, BFR will cost less to launch than Falcon 1.
Only if it comes back.  If it's heading out into the void, it'll be nice and pricey.
Unless you've invented a magic drive that can take a BFS to the stars from LEO, BFS once you get about 10km/s from earth isn't what you want to use, and even very cheap solutions dramatically outperform it.
Getting BFS back is cheap, with perhaps the exception of if you're going to try a large gravity well manoever right next to jupiter.

Any semi-plausible interstellar precursor mission is not going to be dragging along 85 tons of dead weight.

For example, assuming BFS is $100M and launch cost to spacex is $10/kg as implied by P2P.
With $100M, you can launch ten thousand tons of simple balloon tanks and engines capable of throwing 2 tons to 30km/s.


« Last Edit: 04/18/2018 12:23 PM by speedevil »

Offline su27k

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 929
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #58 on: 04/18/2018 01:07 PM »
SpaceX so far as we know is an engineering firm, not a basic technology R&D firm.
Everything built so far including to-be-built BFR is based on engineering; it's not new R&D like interstellar propulsion would be.  Not even exotic interplanetary propulsion. SpaceX does push and extend the state of the art (engineering) more aggressively than their stolid aerospace competitors or NASA.   Rockets landing on their tails, carbon composite all extensions of what's been done but taken aggressively to another level that the timid eschew.
I see Gwynne's interstellar remark as both a glib throw away and a personal fantasy but known to her, an engineer, as being fantasy.

NASA is funding various exotic propulsion concepts, hopefully in 20 years some of them would be mature enough to be picked up by SpaceX TNG. By then I would hope we'll have a Mars base already, and the interstellar propulsion can be worked on as a faster Mars cargo delivery system, just like right now the Mars vehicle is being worked on as a big satellite launcher.

Offline llanitedave

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2138
  • Nevada Desert
  • Liked: 1315
  • Likes Given: 1545
Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #59 on: 04/18/2018 09:44 PM »
And with a huge fully reusable launcher, it may not be fantasy.  Remember, BFR will cost less to launch than Falcon 1.
Only if it comes back.  If it's heading out into the void, it'll be nice and pricey.
Unless you've invented a magic drive that can take a BFS to the stars from LEO, BFS once you get about 10km/s from earth isn't what you want to use, and even very cheap solutions dramatically outperform it.
Getting BFS back is cheap, with perhaps the exception of if you're going to try a large gravity well manoever right next to jupiter.

Any semi-plausible interstellar precursor mission is not going to be dragging along 85 tons of dead weight.

For example, assuming BFS is $100M and launch cost to spacex is $10/kg as implied by P2P.
With $100M, you can launch ten thousand tons of simple balloon tanks and engines capable of throwing 2 tons to 30km/s.


SpaceX showed pictures of BFS's landed in exotic locations like asteroids or Jupiter's moons.  Those would be very hard to get back.  If they fueled in Mars orbit, they could send a probe with another propulsion module off to a much faster trip outbound, but we're still talking about a trip beyond its designed capabilities.
"I've just abducted an alien -- now what?"

Tags: