Author Topic: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell  (Read 41457 times)

Offline deruch

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #20 on: 04/14/2018 08:38 AM »
And speedevil is right... everyone was jazzed about the bigger fairing that ended up being ~2% larger.

I was totally jazzed by that 2% because it enabled my pet thought experiment mission which needed a payload envelope 4 inches wider than Fairing 1.0 allowed.  Now that mission is only impossible for 2 reasons instead of 3.  Woot! Slowly hurdling those obstacles.
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Online kevinof

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #21 on: 04/14/2018 09:11 AM »
Ok, I'll bite. What payload?

And speedevil is right... everyone was jazzed about the bigger fairing that ended up being ~2% larger.

I was totally jazzed by that 2% because it enabled my pet thought experiment mission which needed a payload envelope 4 inches wider than Fairing 1.0 allowed.  Now that mission is only impossible for 2 reasons instead of 3.  Woot! Slowly hurdling those obstacles.

Offline deruch

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #22 on: 04/15/2018 04:30 AM »
Ok, I'll bite. What payload?

It was me trying to kill 2 birds with one stone.  The idea was to enable an essentially free launch of an only slightly modified LDSD on a used booster.  It would find a use for the extra boosters that SpaceX seemed to have laying around gathering dust--which problem has since been somewhat mitigated by the fact that they have foregone recovery on multiple recent missions--while also potentially enabling an important project that had been criminally underfunded.  (This was also originally thought of before so many customers accepted flight proven boosters, so it was also to be another data point in proving that reuse was feasible)

While the LDSD was eventually launched via balloon drop + solid kick motor, in earlier mission design studies they considered launching it via Castor solid motors.  The problem was that they considered the danger of recontact with the expended motor post separation too great.  But that relied on the design that the Castors would accelerate the vehicle to the final mission velocity.  In my design, instead of trying to just swap the F9 booster for those solid motors, they would instead use it as an almost direct swap for the balloon.  Use the F9 booster just to get the same altitude as the balloon and leave the LDSD to finish acceleration to final velocity via an onboard solid kick motor.  That would eliminate the recontact issues as well as reduce the amount of vehicle redesign needed to enable the mission.  So, it would look like a very high altitude Grasshopper launch with the LDSD on top.

So, how does the fairing come into it, I hear you ask.  In order to limit the costs of redesigning the LDSD vehicle (since, before the funding was cut, they had one planned for further testing sitting around), one of the considerations was whether the LDSD could withstand the forces being applied to it in that manner/direction or what orientation it might need to be integrated in.  So, I thought that it might need to be launched within a fairing to limit such problems.  Only the LDSD had a diameter of 4.7m and the F9 fairing limited the payload envelope to 4.6m.  By this point I was also considering whether they would need to use some sort of dummy second stage, etc.
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline flyright

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #23 on: 04/15/2018 12:53 PM »
I had to look that one up.
Low-Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD).

Offline testguy

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #24 on: 04/15/2018 03:09 PM »
I had to look that one up.
Low-Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD).

Thanks!  I glad I wasn't the only one scratching my head.

Offline Barrie

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #25 on: 04/15/2018 07:58 PM »
Different emphasis in this report on Gwynne's talk:

Quote
At the 2018 TED Conference on Wednesday, SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell seemed for the first time to express an even grander vision than Elon Musk's plan to colonize Mars.

Speaking to the crowd, Shotwell said she won't be content to land a SpaceX rocket on Mars, or even to reach more distant planets like Saturn or Pluto. Instead, she revealed that she ultimately hopes to meet up with whoever's out there in other solar systems.

"This is the first time I might out-vision Elon," she said of the SpaceX founder.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/spacex-president-gwynne-shotwell-ted-mars-is-a-fixer-upper-2018-4

Gwynne has in past talks mentioned her dreams of a future where travel to other solar systems is possible.

This aspect of the TED talk seems a bit less off-the-wall in the context of the upcoming TESS launch.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #26 on: 04/15/2018 08:18 PM »
Quote
Some new images of @SpaceX's Big Falcon Rocket (BFR) from SpaceX president&COO Gwynne Shotwell's presentation at #TED2018 conference here: http://www.humanmars.net/2018/04/spacex-big-falcon-rocket-launch-images.html

https://twitter.com/human_mars/status/985570953806532608

Offline deruch

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #27 on: 04/16/2018 12:19 AM »
I had to look that one up.
Low-Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD).

Oops, sorry.  I usually remember to include the full name when using acronyms the first time.  My bad.  It was a project to test out a few new technologies to enable landing higher mass payloads on Mars by increasing the aerodynamic drag after atmospheric entry and enabling the use of large parachutes at supersonic speeds.  So it tested an inflatable ring that expanded the ballistic area of an entering capsule, some new larger supersonic parachute designs (they had plans to test 2 different designs), and a ballute instead of a drogue for stability and deployment of the parachutes. 
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #28 on: 04/16/2018 09:07 AM »
Different emphasis in this report on Gwynne's talk:

Quote
At the 2018 TED Conference on Wednesday, SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell seemed for the first time to express an even grander vision than Elon Musk's plan to colonize Mars.

Speaking to the crowd, Shotwell said she won't be content to land a SpaceX rocket on Mars, or even to reach more distant planets like Saturn or Pluto. Instead, she revealed that she ultimately hopes to meet up with whoever's out there in other solar systems.

"This is the first time I might out-vision Elon," she said of the SpaceX founder.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/spacex-president-gwynne-shotwell-ted-mars-is-a-fixer-upper-2018-4

Gwynne has in past talks mentioned her dreams of a future where travel to other solar systems is possible.

This aspect of the TED talk seems a bit less off-the-wall in the context of the upcoming TESS launch.


there was a panel discussion that she was involved in, 2015/16 time frame, when they were asked for their predictions 25 years out... her answer was out of the norm... she said, "I hope by then we are working on Interstellar Propulsion" presumably she meant SpaceX, as none of the other participants were anywhere near that optimistic or forward thinking... that really stuck with me, because she just sat there, with a 'like what did i say that's so unusual' look... 
"Hate, it has caused a lot of problems in the world, but it has not solved one yet." Maya Angelou
 Tony Benn: "Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself."

Offline Semmel

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #29 on: 04/16/2018 09:43 AM »
there was a panel discussion that she was involved in, 2015/16 time frame, when they were asked for their predictions 25 years out... her answer was out of the norm... she said, "I hope by then we are working on Interstellar Propulsion" presumably she meant SpaceX, as none of the other participants were anywhere near that optimistic or forward thinking... that really stuck with me, because she just sat there, with a 'like what did i say that's so unusual' look...

I remember that well. I argues at the time that she doesnt understand what she is talking about. Talking about going to other stars is too much of a stretch.
Imagine its 3000BC, the local government at the Neil river just funded a new type of vehicle called a raft that can go over the Neil river to the other shore. It was a huge success and 50 years later, the first private company of raft builders offers regular service to transport goods over the Neil river. The local press interviews the guy who does it and asks where he sees river rafting in the next 25 years. Then he comes up with the answer that he hopes to work on rafts that swim the large darkness in order to visit the moon. Fast forward to today. We just are about able to get people to the moon. But going to another solar system is the same as our little raft builder going to the moon. Physically not impossible but way, way, way out of the current engineering capabilities.

Offline speedevil

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #30 on: 04/16/2018 10:35 AM »
Physically not impossible but way, way, way out of the current engineering capabilities.

Interstellar propulsion does not mean humans.
There are at least several nearish-term-maybe moderate performance options that may do interesting things in the 'percent of c or so' range.
From dusty fission, to LASER pushed microprobes, to fusion.

Certainly, in 25 years, a mission to for example do a manned mission to Sedna might be very ambitious, but plausible, if everything has gone right.

Offline john smith 19

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #31 on: 04/16/2018 10:40 AM »

there was a panel discussion that she was involved in, 2015/16 time frame, when they were asked for their predictions 25 years out... her answer was out of the norm... she said, "I hope by then we are working on Interstellar Propulsion" presumably she meant SpaceX, as none of the other participants were anywhere near that optimistic or forward thinking... that really stuck with me, because she just sat there, with a 'like what did i say that's so unusual' look...
Perhaps she sees the theoretical limits of the technology today, rather than the (much) more limited level we apply that technology?

An engine with an exhaust of 5-10% of the speed of light is possible today. No "breakthrough" physics involved. Just engineering.

[EDIT OTOH taking humans there is way tougher.
Then again without very solid evidence of a (approximately) Earth type planet to settle down on, or the ability to refuel and come home this is basically a suicide mission. My instinct is that closed cycle ECLSS and automation reliability have to get a lot better before humans can go.  It's just a very long time in space with very little to actually do. IMHO Keeping most (all?) the crew in some form of "suspended animation" is the only way to make it viable  ]
« Last Edit: 04/17/2018 03:53 PM by john smith 19 »
BFS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of flying in Earth and Mars atmospheres. BFR. The worlds biggest Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured booster for BFS. First flight to Mars by end of 2022. Forward looking statements. T&C apply. Believe no one. Run your own numbers. So, you are going to Mars to start a better life? Picture it in your mind. Now say what it is out loud.

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #32 on: 04/16/2018 01:39 PM »
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45008.msg1811022#msg1811022
Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #44 on: Today at 09:35 AM »
I've posted a reply here, to keep this thread on topic
Please take any relevant discussions there... thx
"Hate, it has caused a lot of problems in the world, but it has not solved one yet." Maya Angelou
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #33 on: 04/16/2018 01:39 PM »
Didn't someone say that Shotwell's video would be released today (the 16th)? I can't find it.
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Offline Semmel

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #34 on: 04/16/2018 02:20 PM »
A more mundane possibility: Asking about stuff that would happen 20/35/50 years from now is a bit ridiculous from Gwynnes perspective. She is responsible for the economic success of SpaceX. She has necessarily a horizon of maybe 5 years or some more in some long term development projects. From her perspective, talking about stuff that is 4 to 10 times her current time horizon, there is no way she can give a sensible answer. So she gives intentionally a ridiculous one.

Offline Dave G

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #35 on: 04/16/2018 03:28 PM »
Didn't someone say that Shotwell's video would be released today (the 16th)? I can't find it.

https://tedlive.ted.com/webcasts/t2018/session/291

Cost is $25.

Offline llanitedave

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #36 on: 04/16/2018 04:22 PM »
there was a panel discussion that she was involved in, 2015/16 time frame, when they were asked for their predictions 25 years out... her answer was out of the norm... she said, "I hope by then we are working on Interstellar Propulsion" presumably she meant SpaceX, as none of the other participants were anywhere near that optimistic or forward thinking... that really stuck with me, because she just sat there, with a 'like what did i say that's so unusual' look...

I remember that well. I argues at the time that she doesnt understand what she is talking about. Talking about going to other stars is too much of a stretch.
Imagine its 3000BC, the local government at the Neil river just funded a new type of vehicle called a raft that can go over the Neil river to the other shore. It was a huge success and 50 years later, the first private company of raft builders offers regular service to transport goods over the Neil river. The local press interviews the guy who does it and asks where he sees river rafting in the next 25 years. Then he comes up with the answer that he hopes to work on rafts that swim the large darkness in order to visit the moon. Fast forward to today. We just are about able to get people to the moon. But going to another solar system is the same as our little raft builder going to the moon. Physically not impossible but way, way, way out of the current engineering capabilities.


"Working on" doesn't mean "implementing".  I see that as an area of research that she hopes by then they can be investigating, not promising an imminent mission.
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Offline DistantTemple

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #37 on: 04/16/2018 05:11 PM »
there was a panel discussion that she was involved in, 2015/16 time frame, when they were asked for their predictions 25 years out... her answer was out of the norm... she said, "I hope by then we are working on Interstellar Propulsion" presumably she meant SpaceX, as none of the other participants were anywhere near that optimistic or forward thinking... that really stuck with me, because she just sat there, with a 'like what did i say that's so unusual' look...

I remember that well. I argues at the time that she doesnt understand what she is talking about. Talking about going to other stars is too much of a stretch.
... snip ...
Physically not impossible but way, way, way out of the current engineering capabilities.

"Working on" doesn't mean "implementing".  I see that as an area of research that she hopes by then they can be investigating, not promising an imminent mission.
Yes I agree ""Working on" doesn't mean "implementing"." And they could already be "working on" Interstellar Propulsion. Now! And GS is rather well placed to know exactly what she's talking about... perhaps that's more obvious today.
I think our minds are quite closed to the future... and the slow pace of space exploration these 50 years has reinforced that. Both Gwynne, and Elon almost have to use tin-openers on our thick heads, to get us to see whats really possible!

Recent advances in high temp superconductors allows magnetic field strengths of up to 12 Tesla. This means the basic physics is in place for a fusion reactor, that could work and produce a good net output. <iframe src='//players.brightcove.net/3058934373001/S1bNWKB9de_default/index.html?videoId=4721014086001' allowfullscreen frameborder=0></iframe> is about the MIT CMAP tokomak. Obviously massive and not ready yet....
Elsewhere antimatter is being produced...
And I have just found Milner and "Starshot to Alpha Centuri" http://earthsky.org/space/breakthrough-starshot-aims-for-alpha-centauri So AN actual mission is being planned.
I hope that since Gwynne has put so much into SX, she will get to see real progress at in this at SX before she retires! A probe will probably get to Alpha Centuri in her lifetime.
Edit: Spelling and bold
« Last Edit: 04/16/2018 11:54 PM by DistantTemple »
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Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #38 on: 04/16/2018 05:49 PM »
DistantTemple
Yes I agree ""Working on" doesn't mean "implementing"." And they could already be "working on" Interstellar Propulsion. Now! And GS is rather well placed to know exactly what she's talking about... perhaps that's more obvious today.
I think our minds are quite closed to the future... and the slow pace of space exploration these 50 years has reinforced that. Both Gwynne, and Elon almost have to use tin-openers on our thick heads, to get us to see whats really possible!
********************************************************************************
Gramps
This is something I rail about a lot on the internet, esp. YouTube... the short sightedness of people even when it is right in front of them is astounding... it's like they want to believe in the Easter Bunny more than they do hard science... which may be the problem, science is hard, and many people skip that subject in school, and then society tells them that their "opinion" is just as valid as a scientists observations...

This winter I've been house bound, and spend as much as 8-10 hours a day on youtube... much of it on politics, but again many science based channels... and I'm seeing stuff that is just on the verge of coming out of the lab into production, and other stuff that is portending a future 12 - 15 years out that will blow many peoples minds....

I'll probably get deleted for going OT, but to sum up, I don't believe that Gwynne was just being humours or exaggerating... SpaceX has been in existence for 16 years, and in another 22 years what does anyone think they can accomplish... or for that matter all of Elon's companies in a technological convergence... certainly they will have advanced humanity beyond anything we can imagine today...
« Last Edit: 04/16/2018 05:50 PM by cro-magnon gramps »
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 Tony Benn: "Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself."

Online philw1776

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Re: TED talk by Gwynne Shotwell
« Reply #39 on: 04/16/2018 06:24 PM »
SpaceX so far as we know is an engineering firm, not a basic technology R&D firm.
Everything built so far including to-be-built BFR is based on engineering; it's not new R&D like interstellar propulsion would be.  Not even exotic interplanetary propulsion. SpaceX does push and extend the state of the art (engineering) more aggressively than their stolid aerospace competitors or NASA.   Rockets landing on their tails, carbon composite all extensions of what's been done but taken aggressively to another level that the timid eschew.
I see Gwynne's interstellar remark as both a glib throw away and a personal fantasy but known to her, an engineer, as being fantasy.
“When it looks more like an alien dreadnought, that’s when you know you’ve won.”

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