Total Members Voted: 513
Voting closed: 01/28/2018 10:13 pm
I am surprised that 67 out of the first 77 voters predict successful flight to orbit. Seems NSF'ers believe very much in SpaceX' ability to pull this off.
Quote from: Oersted on 12/29/2017 06:12 pmI am surprised that 67 out of the first 77 voters predict successful flight to orbit. Seems NSF'ers believe very much in SpaceX' ability to pull this off.I'm not. FH has been "6 months away" for years - not rushed to the pad at all. Meanwhile, 2017 was a showcase for what F9 can do as a mature launcher. We haven't been hearing as much lately from the "But 27 ENGINES! It's almost as bad as N1!" folks.I am going to try SOOO hard to drive down and see this launch.
POLL added to the title.... I think it got moved already (on my phone so... )
SpaceX have had two failures in the last few years, so surprised by how optimistic everyone is here about the launch (current complete success vote is 85%). That said, I am feeling good about this one and am going with the majority.
The N1’s problem was not “30 engines” per se, but:A. Having 30 mostly untested engines, andB. Trying to control them with a computer reputed to be in the PDP-8 class.
I voted that it will make it to orbit. I think that is the more likely scenario, since otherwise SpaceX would not proceed with the launch.That said, though I think the odds are better than 50:50, they are not close to 100%.I'll have my fingers crossed for the entire flight...
Just can't bring myself to vote on any of these options.
However, this is a totally new vehicle, so I am skeptical that everything will go perfectly.
Quote from: MATTBLAK on 12/30/2017 11:19 amJust can't bring myself to vote on any of these options.Happily, voting in this poll is not required to remain an NSF user in good standing, trust me, I checked. However, to make your post more interesting maybe you could edit it to say why, or what option (not present) you WOULD vote for if it were present?
I voted "Clearing launch tower but failure to reach orbit" but that's not necessarily the outcome I believe has the highest probability of occurring. The reason I voted that way is that I think the voting so far (at least from the text reports (didn't get to see poll results until I voted)) has been higher than the probability I would project and I wanted to move that group average down a bit.
Good luck to SpaceX. I plan on being at the Cape for that launch. FH will be my first launch I hope to witness firstand, unless I can somehow make it to the Zuma launch. Was thinking of watching from Fishlips or Jetty park. Not sure if Playalinda would be bettter.
I don't see an option for Falcon Heavy curing cancer and Alzheimer's, and inventing perpetual motion.
Quote from: Rhyshaelkan on 01/01/2018 03:51 pmI don't see an option for Falcon Heavy curing cancer and Alzheimer's, and inventing perpetual motion.They've deferred that to BFR.
and inventing perpetual motion.
Successful LEOSuccessful BEOMake it so!
Quote from: Rhyshaelkan on 01/01/2018 03:51 pmand inventing perpetual motion.Launching the Roadster into that orbit comes pretty close, though...Seems we're landing at just over a fifth thinking the mission will fail and four fifths believing it will go well. Sign of realism or optimism? - You be the judge...
OK, I'll start things off optimistically. There may be a post-ignition pad abort or three, but once they actually release the hold-downs, I'm feeling pretty good about the flight.
I have my doubts about stage separation. Just hoping that SpaceX have crunched the numbers right on POGO and this thing doesn't do an N-1.
conventional wisdom says a staggered boostback or slightly different trajectories will keep the two boosters separated (distance while in flight, and staggered arrival times at the LZ)
Voted for success to orbit, but I'm including the caveat that they will fail to recover one of the 3 boosters. This can come from any cause, separation failure, landing error, etc.
I'll answer in the accepted poll justification discussion format:I think this launch will result in one or fewer successes, with zero or more boosters sticking a landing, and not more than one (but maybe fewer) Teslas injected into orbit around the sun or some other orbit, or not. I'll report back on how I did after the launch!(Just kidding - I'm feeling good that this beast will have 100% mission success with the two side boosters completing a RTLS and the center core RUDing on the ASDS due to a hot entry)
Quote from: Johnnyhinbos on 12/29/2017 06:50 pmI'll answer in the accepted poll justification discussion format:I think this launch will result in one or fewer successes, with zero or more boosters sticking a landing, and not more than one (but maybe fewer) Teslas injected into orbit around the sun or some other orbit, or not. I'll report back on how I did after the launch!(Just kidding - I'm feeling good that this beast will have 100% mission success with the two side boosters completing a RTLS and the center core RUDing on the ASDS due to a hot entry)I think I’m going to just pat myself on the back with a 100% accurate and fully qualified prediction! Where’s my t-shirt?