Author Topic: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?  (Read 36355 times)

Offline yg1968

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #60 on: 08/17/2017 07:14 pm »
But I admit that I have the same concerns as you that they will end up following the CCtCap model for habitats and not the COTS model.

COTS is a dead model.

That certainly seems to be the case but it's unfortunate given how succesful it was in terms of bang for the buck.
« Last Edit: 08/17/2017 08:29 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #61 on: 08/17/2017 07:17 pm »
I am hoping that the new NASA admistrator will change things for the future (Nextstep) rounds of habitat development.

You are wasting your wishes.

You are probably right on this also. But there was some indication from the President's FY 2018 budget that the Administration wanted habitats to be the next public-private partnership.
« Last Edit: 08/17/2017 07:18 pm by yg1968 »

Offline Jim

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #62 on: 08/17/2017 07:30 pm »
But I admit that I have the same concerns as you that they will end up following the CCtCap model for habitats and not the COTS model.

COTS is a dead model.

That certainly seems to be the case but it's unfortunate given how succesfull it was in terms of bang for the buck.

It was a unique case

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #63 on: 08/17/2017 07:54 pm »
But I admit that I have the same concerns as you that they will end up following the CCtCap model for habitats and not the COTS model.

COTS is a dead model.

That certainly seems to be the case but it's unfortunate given how succesfull it was in terms of bang for the buck.

It was a unique case

Maybe. But that is also the situation every time something is done for the first time - it's unique. But if it has merit then it will be done again, and then no longer be unique.

And if the U.S. Government truly wants to do more in space, without Congress having to spend more, then COTS could be a viable method to accomplish that, since the private sector wants to do more in space too.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Jim

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #64 on: 08/17/2017 08:26 pm »

And if the U.S. Government truly wants to do more in space, without Congress having to spend more, then COTS could be a viable method to accomplish that, since the private sector wants to do more in space too.

As far as manned space, there is no more. 

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #65 on: 08/17/2017 08:42 pm »

And if the U.S. Government truly wants to do more in space, without Congress having to spend more, then COTS could be a viable method to accomplish that, since the private sector wants to do more in space too.

As far as manned space, there is no more.

...as of today. Which is why I said "if", since that can change tomorrow. And if it does change, then we'll have COTS as a model of what does and doesn't work, and CCP as a model of what does and doesn't work - and no doubt the SLS & Orion experiences to reference too. The more data you have to evaluate your options the better, which includes cost effectiveness and safety.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Jim

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #66 on: 08/17/2017 09:16 pm »
COTS isn't a model that is available for every procurement.  It isn't a procurement system, in the first place.  It is a development model. There are no future manned system developments that can use it.  It has to be a system or services  that NASA is going to buy multiple times and that have commercial applications.

Offline Jim

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #67 on: 08/17/2017 09:25 pm »
SLS would never be COTS, CRS is the optional model

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #68 on: 08/17/2017 11:46 pm »
COTS isn't a model that is available for every procurement.  It isn't a procurement system, in the first place.  It is a development model. There are no future manned system developments that can use it.

...that we know of today.

All we know is what has happened in the past, not even you knows what's going to happen in the future, and all I've been saying is that the experiences we had with COTS, CCP, and even the government-owned SLS and Orion, will help us to decide what the best route will be when/if NASA is tasked to do more HSF in space.

Quote
It has to be a system or services  that NASA is going to buy multiple times and that have commercial applications.

Of course. Not sure why you think this is a point of contention. It's not.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Jim

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #69 on: 08/18/2017 12:12 am »
COTS isn't a model that is available for every procurement.  It isn't a procurement system, in the first place.  It is a development model. There are no future manned system developments that can use it.

...that we know of today.

All we know is what has happened in the past, not even you knows what's going to happen in the future, and all I've been saying is that the experiences we had with COTS, CCP, and even the government-owned SLS and Orion, will help us to decide what the best route will be when/if NASA is tasked to do more HSF in space.

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It has to be a system or services  that NASA is going to buy multiple times and that have commercial applications.

Of course. Not sure why you think this is a point of contention. It's not.

That is why COTS is not going to be used, there is nothing in the future that fits the point that is not in contention.   

Offline yg1968

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #70 on: 08/18/2017 01:19 am »
COTS isn't a model that is available for every procurement.  It isn't a procurement system, in the first place.  It is a development model. There are no future manned system developments that can use it.  It has to be a system or services  that NASA is going to buy multiple times and that have commercial applications.

You could argue that habitats fits such a need. Habitats modules are needed everywhere (Moon, Mars, Cislunar and LEO) and they could be rented out commercially to NASA, foreign governments and space tourists.
« Last Edit: 08/18/2017 01:22 am by yg1968 »

Offline Jim

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #71 on: 08/18/2017 01:25 am »
NASA isn't going to buy more than one and how would a commercial company do a development and test program?. Build a couple of  modules and fly them in LEO for a year before going into production.  Who commercially is going to use these modules.

Offline yg1968

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #72 on: 08/18/2017 01:51 am »
You can test a smaller scale module at the ISS such as Beam. NASA could use a habitat in cislunar space for the DSG, one in LEO and one on the Moon. The deep space transport also needs one. Mars also needs habitats. These modules could be rented out commercially to tourists and foreign governments (in addition to NASA).

It's not related to habitats but NASA has also spoken of a program to transport cargo to the Moon. That could be another candidate for a new COTS like program.
« Last Edit: 08/18/2017 01:54 am by yg1968 »

Offline Jim

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #73 on: 08/18/2017 01:57 am »
Habitat procurement for each project going to be years/decades apart.  Not enough to stimulate a commercial market.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #74 on: 08/18/2017 02:25 am »
NASA isn't going to buy more than one...

Which is speculation about a program that doesn't yet exist, so the requirements are unknown.

Quote
...and how would a commercial company do a development and test program?

It depends of course, but certainly there were many that said COTS could not work, and yet it did. So let's not be pre-bound by the past.

Quote
Build a couple of  modules and fly them in LEO for a year before going into production.  Who commercially is going to use these modules.

Since we don't know the requirements we can't know how they will be satisfied.

The past decades has been remarkable in space history as far as developing capabilities for space, so I would not doubt the ability of the private sector to keep stepping up and exceeding expectations.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Jim

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #75 on: 08/18/2017 02:46 am »
It is idiotic to think NASA is going to get funding that would support multiple projects that use habitats

Offline Jim

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #76 on: 08/18/2017 02:59 am »

It depends of course, but certainly there were many that said COTS could not work, and yet it did. So let's not be pre-bound by the past.


No, it is not a open nebulous process.   COTS was to help develop a system that will have gov't and commercial uses.  And then have a procurement that buys multiple "copies" of the system.   COTS is not just giving out money and letting the contractor work open loop.   It has to a system/service that will be procured maybe 7-15 times or so.   It isn't for a one, two or three of a kind procurement.   For example, COTS would not work on an X-37 type project.  There are only two of them.

Offline AncientU

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #77 on: 08/18/2017 10:26 am »

It depends of course, but certainly there were many that said COTS could not work, and yet it did. So let's not be pre-bound by the past.


No, it is not a open nebulous process.   COTS was to help develop a system that will have gov't and commercial uses.  And then have a procurement that buys multiple "copies" of the system.   COTS is not just giving out money and letting the contractor work open loop.   It has to a system/service that will be procured maybe 7-15 times or so.   It isn't for a one, two or three of a kind procurement.   For example, COTS would not work on an X-37 type project.  There are only two of them.

Sounds like the perfect formula for an exploration-class rocket.
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Offline Jim

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #78 on: 08/18/2017 10:56 am »

Sounds like the perfect formula for an exploration-class rocket.

Industry is already going to be build them on their own dimes.  No need for NASA to chip in.
« Last Edit: 08/18/2017 10:56 am by Jim »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Is Commercial Crew Dangerous?
« Reply #79 on: 08/18/2017 01:37 pm »
Habitat procurement for each project going to be years/decades apart.  Not enough to stimulate a commercial market.

The market would be to rent out the habitats not to build them. But that doesn't work if NASA makes the inside of the habitat (ECLSS, etc.) governmental as it currently intends to do it. I hope that changes.
« Last Edit: 08/18/2017 01:38 pm by yg1968 »

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