Author Topic: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016  (Read 146839 times)

Online rayleighscatter

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #480 on: 02/08/2016 12:10 AM »
I think the numbers we're assuming for mission cost probably aren't right either. None of them so far are really in line with what NASA alluded to: OA being "notably" cheaper, SX being the most expensive, and SNC being somewhere in the middle, but closer to SX than OA.

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #481 on: 02/08/2016 12:34 AM »
I think the numbers we're assuming for mission cost probably aren't right either. None of them so far are really in line with what NASA alluded to: OA being "notably" cheaper, SX being the most expensive, and SNC being somewhere in the middle, but closer to SX than OA.

See my last post, there is a 20% price difference between SpaceX ($540M for 3 flights) and Orbital ($450M for two flights) for bringing up 7,500 kg of pressurized upmass and 1000 kg of unpressurized upmass. But perhaps, you are right, SNC might be closer to $500M for bringing up that amount of cargo ($250M x 2 missions). 

It's hard to guess the exact price but SpaceX is probably less than $200M and SNC is probably around $250M.

In any event, comparing only upmass doesn't make much sense. Returning cargo to Earth from the ISS is a lot harder than disposing of it. 
« Last Edit: 02/08/2016 02:36 PM by yg1968 »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #482 on: 02/08/2016 01:17 PM »
Surely the key take away here is just how strong the portfolio of capabilities offered by the chosen bidders is? Redundancy in every required capability across at least two providers, different LVs, choices between berthing and docking etc etc.

From a NASA pov I don't think there could have been a better outcome. Which is great for the industry too. Feels like a win-win to me.

(I do find the lack of info about Lockheed and Boeing assessments a bit strange though, although clearly Lockheed were a lot more expensive.)

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #483 on: 02/08/2016 02:39 PM »
I am hoping that NASA will have a press conference with the three providers now that the blackout period is over. The blackout period likely ended on Friday when the Source Selection Statement was released (the blackout period usually ends 10 days after all of the companies have been briefed assuming that there is no protest).

If there is such a press conference, the reasons for dropping Boeing and LM might be discussed. During the press conference right after the awards, Kirk Shireman said that he could only discuss the reasons for dropping Boeing once the Source Selection Statement was released.
« Last Edit: 02/08/2016 02:43 PM by yg1968 »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #484 on: 02/08/2016 03:53 PM »
Lockheed Martin said that they would still be working on their proposal, but I kind of doubt that they're actually doing it. It would be a powerful capability, especially if paired with cheap launch.
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #485 on: 02/08/2016 06:09 PM »
Lockheed Martin said that they would still be working on their proposal, but I kind of doubt that they're actually doing it. It would be a powerful capability, especially if paired with cheap launch.

Their idea of a tug is a good one. But it seems to have been the wrong proposal for CRS2. Working on it probably just means that one person tweeks it from time. They may revive their proposal at some point when it becomes relevant again. That is what Boeing and SNC did with their COTS proposal and it worked for them. So who knows.

NASA said that it would be interested in using commercial companies to carry cargo to cislunar space. So it might be relevant again at that point in time.
« Last Edit: 02/08/2016 06:23 PM by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #486 on: 03/18/2016 01:20 AM »
Quote from: slide 31 of NAC ISS Presentation
CRS-2 Contract award was announced on 1/14/16
- Awardees are Orbital-ATK, SpaceX, and Sierra Nevada Corporation
- Contract post award briefings will be conducted in Mar/Apr
- A minimum of six missions will be ordered from each provider
- CRS-2 missions are planned for launch beginning in 2019
- To bridge the launch gap, the current CRS contracts were extended to provide ordering through Dec 2018


http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/3-ISS-Status-Scimemi.pdf
« Last Edit: 03/18/2016 01:21 AM by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #487 on: 04/01/2016 12:31 AM »
This isn't the first time that Gerst has mentionned this. But NASA is considering commercial cargo to cislunar space:

Quote
Gerst: for future cislunar missions, NASA wonít provide cargo services; will look to commercial providers to do that.
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/715552697873727488

Quote
Squyres: commíl cislunar cargo sounds like a great idea. Have you given thought to requirements, etc.?
Gerst: yes.
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/715554907600740352
« Last Edit: 04/01/2016 12:40 AM by yg1968 »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #488 on: 04/01/2016 12:41 AM »
This isn't the first time that Gerst has nentionned this. But NASA is considering commercial cargo to cislunar space:

Quote
Gerst: for future cislunar missions, NASA wonít provide cargo services; will look to commercial providers to do that.
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/715552697873727488

Quote
Squyres: commíl cislunar cargo sounds like a great idea. Have you given thought to requirements, etc.?
Gerst: yes.
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/715554907600740352
This time round it maybe a simple supply contract, let supplier pay for any development costs if needed. 

A Cygnus/Vulcan combination should be able to reach lunar DRO. Same applies to Dragon and FH combination.




Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #489 on: 04/01/2016 01:21 AM »
This tweet is also relevant to cislunar commercial cargo tansportation as it indicates that NASA will do most of its research in BLEO in the future:

Quote
Scimemi: NASA will be a customer for commíl LEO services in future, but bulk of our activity will be in beyond LEO activities, even research

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/715164382733418497

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #490 on: 10/16/2016 06:19 PM »
The CRS2 contracts have been posted here:

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/johnson/news/contracts/index.html

Offline Sam Ho

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #491 on: 11/08/2016 10:58 PM »
From the OA non-earnings call today:
Quote from: Dave Thompson
Quote from: Gautam Khanna
I had a couple of questions, I was wondering if you had an update to when you anticipate NASA will place its initial CRS-2 orders?
Yes. I think there is a pretty good chance of that this quarter.
Quote from: Gautam Khanna
And how many do you think they'll actually order when they do so?
It's harder to call. The assumption is one right now and additional orders next years, but we will have to wait and see.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4021177-orbital-atks-oa-ceo-dave-thompson-q3-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript

Online gongora

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #492 on: 12/28/2016 04:22 PM »
This presentation was posted a couple of weeks ago:



This presentation that yg1968 found from the  ISPCS conference has info on all three of the CRS2 vehicles

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #493 on: 12/30/2016 05:50 AM »
The CRS2 contracts have been posted here:

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/johnson/news/contracts/index.html

Most of the SpaceX CRS2 contract was redacted. However, I noticed (on page 3 of the document or 7 of the PDF) that option A (likely Dragon1) would require 5 flights to get 14,250 to 16,750 kg of pressurized cargo to the ISS wheres as option B (likely Dragon2) would only take 4 flights to get the same amount of cargo up to the ISS.

It's interesting to see that providers could have a different price depending on how many missions per year were flown.
« Last Edit: 12/30/2016 06:07 AM by yg1968 »

Offline john smith 19

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #494 on: 12/30/2016 09:03 AM »
This presentation was posted a couple of weeks ago:

This presentation that yg1968 found from the  ISPCS conference has info on all three of the CRS2 vehicles
Fascinating viewing.

DC always looked liked the most innovative approach and this confirms it. 

Also interesting to note SX will be transitioning their cargo to a version of the crewed capsule design, moving up from berthing to actual docking, presumably starting to upgrade the ECLSS to full human life support and baselining rocket landing on land.  And the indication they will start to refly cargo Dragons with CRS 11. I suspect they won't be making many more cargo dragons to the original design, if they have not phased them out of the production line already.

[EDIT one obvious SNC could do when the cargo DC design is fully frozen would be do to a "Payload Manual" showing payload locations inside and on the vehicle, dimensions, power, comms and thermal services etc.

It wasn't mentioned in the presentation but sounds like a good way to give people a baseline to design to ]
« Last Edit: 12/30/2016 09:36 AM by john smith 19 »
BFS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of flying in Earth and Mars atmospheres. BFR. The worlds biggest Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured booster for BFS. First flight to Mars by end of 2022. Forward looking statements. T&C apply. Believe no one. Run your own numbers. So, you are going to Mars to start a better life? Picture it in your mind. Now say what it is out loud.

Offline sdsds

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #495 on: 12/30/2016 09:15 AM »
the indication they will start to refly cargo Dragons with CRS 11. I suspect they won't be making many more cargo dragons to the original design, if they have not phased them out of the production line already.

CRS2 gives them an opportunity to prove the D2 design, but they will also fly D2 for crew missions. The cautious approach would be to continue D1 production until D2 has flown successfully. Of course SpaceX isn't particularly known for being cautious!
« Last Edit: 12/30/2016 09:16 AM by sdsds »
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Offline rockets4life97

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #496 on: 12/30/2016 09:35 AM »
We don't know the level of refurbishment required for the re-used cargo Dragons. I think they'll have shut down the production line, but kept a refurbishment line. SpaceX has 10 more CRS-1 missions, 9 after the first re-use in CRS-11. It seems like some of the dragons will be re-flown twice.

Offline john smith 19

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #497 on: 12/30/2016 03:37 PM »
CRS2 gives them an opportunity to prove the D2 design, but they will also fly D2 for crew missions.
The views of Dragon 2 I've seen suggest it's quite a different beast. More of a lifting body than a straight capsule. I would not expect SX to pass up the chance to get flight experience of the shape and as many systems as possible.
Quote
The cautious approach would be to continue D1 production until D2 has flown successfully. Of course SpaceX isn't particularly known for being cautious!
Both true. A running theme of SX operations is they don't like leaving stuff in the warehouse in case they need one. If it's made, it's used.
BFS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of flying in Earth and Mars atmospheres. BFR. The worlds biggest Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured booster for BFS. First flight to Mars by end of 2022. Forward looking statements. T&C apply. Believe no one. Run your own numbers. So, you are going to Mars to start a better life? Picture it in your mind. Now say what it is out loud.

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #498 on: 12/30/2016 03:49 PM »
the indication they will start to refly cargo Dragons with CRS 11. I suspect they won't be making many more cargo dragons to the original design, if they have not phased them out of the production line already.

CRS2 gives them an opportunity to prove the D2 design, but they will also fly D2 for crew missions. The cautious approach would be to continue D1 production until D2 has flown successfully. Of course SpaceX isn't particularly known for being cautious!

CRS2 starts in 2019. A few crewed Dragon2 should have flown by the time that it starts.
« Last Edit: 12/30/2016 03:51 PM by yg1968 »

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #499 on: 12/31/2016 04:37 AM »
Some captures from the presentation.

NASA. We don't think we could have lost another one. We have contingency supplies. For CRS-2 its about the same. A little more oversight for reliability and launching on time. A lot of complaints of the delays which is a big cost expense for the payloads. Station was prepared. Commercial payloads hurt more. Redundancy in CRS2. We did not overbuy. Capability to add missions if we need to. Launch on need capability. Bring up another vehicle quickly. Right now go with the missions we have if everything went according to plan. Have an ability to surge.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

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