I don't think the US record over the last ~20 years is a valid basis for such projections as the US effectively withdrew from the commercial launch market years ago. The market (at least with respect to SpaceX) is not only the US government, but the global market of commercially competed launches. The FAA 2012 forecasts ~21/yr "addressable" GSO payloads/yr and ~30 NGSO payloads/yr for a total of ~51 payloads/yr through 2021. (edit: the FAA NGSO forecast includes NASA commercial cargo and crew or ~7 NGSO payloads/yr through 2021),
Quote from: Avronthis does... http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/05/investing/elon-musk-space-x-ipo/index.htmlThe company is already flying cargo missions to the International Space Station for NASA, and delivering satellites into space for commercial customers. It has booked more than 50 additional cargo and satellite flights for paying customers through 2017, which should bring in revenues of $5 billion. And it says it has been cash flow positive for the past six years.No it doesn't. It doesn't say operating cash flow, so I assume its net cash flow. If that is positive it just means SpaceX gets enough financing. And booked flights are just that, booked flights.
this does... http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/05/investing/elon-musk-space-x-ipo/index.htmlThe company is already flying cargo missions to the International Space Station for NASA, and delivering satellites into space for commercial customers. It has booked more than 50 additional cargo and satellite flights for paying customers through 2017, which should bring in revenues of $5 billion. And it says it has been cash flow positive for the past six years.