Sidemount operational cost seem to be in the $4-5+B ballpark compared to shuttle's $3B (yea, you throw away more, but also no maintenance of orbiters).The ground ops massive increase noted by Zubrin.If you let go of some of these unspecified/unclear categories, you can have a better budget and can finance real things like a lunar lander.
http://www.marssociety.org/portal/AugustineNumbers/Robert Zubrin thinks the Aerospace Corp is being used to provide a justification to kill HSF.
STS is not 3 billion per year. At higher flight rates it has always been above 4 billion in current dollars.Ground ops will go up as the infrastructure ages - most of it is decades old, costs will go up in the next years.You also need to account for inflation. Costs in 2020 are a lot higher than they are now in absolute dollar figures.
At least Kennedy knew it would take some serious money to explore. Bush didn't realize this.
It is budgeted for $3-3.2B in AC own numbers, admittedly for the current flight levels. Sidemount has some extra costs in losing engines and the cargo holder, but there is no need for expensive orbiter maintenance. I don't think they assumed inflation rates up till the mid-2020s, so it should be more comparable than 50-75% more expensive.
Sure, ground equipment needs to be maintained/upgraded, but such a steep hike is unexpected.
As are the really unclear and vague budget items. $15.9B to spend on unspecified tech development?? Or the cool $14.6B on 'other non-Cx elements'
Quote from: Danny Dot on 08/29/2009 07:04 pmAt least Kennedy knew it would take some serious money to explore. Bush didn't realize this.I disagree with this take. VSE, the last thing that was publicly endorsed at the White House level, mandated a go-as-you-can-pay approach. It was ESAS and Griffin's disdain for spiral development that screwed everything up.
Fixed costs are practically the same for the SDLV and Shuttle. Costs have come down right now, because the Shuttle is phased out, no ETs are ordered any more, no spare parts etc. We are in "fly-out" mode for quite some time already. Operations costs for an cargo SDLV may be a bit lower, but overall that doesn't add up to very much. 5 billion in 2020 is a reasonable estimate for operations costs by the Committee if you ask me, as the average per year Shuttle cost was in the 4 billion-4.5 billion range in today's dollars over the length of the program. http://www.space.com/news/shuttle_cost_050211.html
I cannot agree with that. Buildings, infrastructure etc. have a expected useful life of between 30-40 years in industry. After that you either need to abandon them and build new ones or invest heavily in renovation. The older the infrastructure gets the more money it needs.
They are not unspecified or vague. They include refueling technology, advanced propulsion, medical research, management, robotic precusor missions, advanced capabilities such as surface spacesuits, radiation research, nuclear reactor or other power source research and development etc. etc. Sally Ride specifically mentioned that the technology line item is key for a solid beyond-LEO program.
Sidemount has some extra costs in losing engines and the cargo holder, but there is no need for expensive orbiter maintenance.
Quote from: marcus79 on 08/29/2009 07:50 pmSidemount has some extra costs in losing engines and the cargo holder, but there is no need for expensive orbiter maintenance. Some day you all will finally realize throwing away a whole spacecraft with all its fancy equipment is more costly than maintaining the "expensive" orbiter, with all its capabilities. And I am not even talking about throwing away the launch vehicle too (two of these per mission), and the second spacecraft ("mission module", lunar lander, a whole two stage manned vehicle by its own).Well, we did learn this lesson in the late 1960ies, but it seems too long ago to remember. I am sure in a few years - too late - people will lament the mistakes. Some folks never will.Analyst
Well, Zubrin may be right but it's worth pointing out that he's entered the sour grapes field ahead of us. He knows his choice is out, the rest of us peons are still waiting to get our personal ox gored.
You also need to account for inflation. Costs in 2020 are a lot higher than they are now in absolute dollar figures.
http://www.marssociety.org/portal/AugustineNumbers/Robert Zubrin thinks the Aerospace Corp is being used to provide a justification to kill HSF."The Augustine Committee may believe that by accepting such estimates they can push the Obama administration into supplying more funds to NASA. However the program they propose is so unattractive that the more likely result is that they will simply cause cancellation of the human exploration effort. "
Can someone provide a single example of a spiral development project? I can't think of one.Danny Deger
Yes, most people underestimate the effect of inflation.Aerospace assumed a 2.25% inflation rate.4B in FY09 -> 5.1B FY20 -> 6.24B FY29 just because of inflation.(1.0225^11 = 1.28, 1.0225^20 = 1.56)