Author Topic: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion  (Read 295801 times)

Offline RotoSequence

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #520 on: 07/01/2017 05:21 pm »
If this is dust to some degree then something must be replenishing it otherwise the star's solar wind would clear it from the system.

It's possible that we won the cosmic timeline lottery and are watching a shortlived phenomenon while it's active.
But odds would say that's unlikely though.

There's not a whole lot about this star's behavior that isn't unlikely.  ;)

Offline jgoldader

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #521 on: 07/01/2017 09:31 pm »
(Highly unlikely behavior) * (lots of stars) = good chance of seeing it.

But *what* we're seeing... aye, there's the question!
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Offline Mongo62

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #522 on: 07/01/2017 10:46 pm »
It's possible that we won the cosmic timeline lottery and are watching a shortlived phenomenon while it's active.
But odds would say that's unlikely though.

If this were the only star we were watching, yes. But given the number of stars being monitored, it's entirely possible (indeed very likely) that we are seeing some phenomenon that's very short-lived in astronomical terms.
« Last Edit: 07/01/2017 11:52 pm by Mongo62 »

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #523 on: 07/01/2017 10:54 pm »
It's possible that we won the cosmic timeline lottery and are watching a shortlived phenomenon while it's active.
But odds would say that's unlikely though.

If there were the only star we were watching, yes. But given the number of stars being monitored, it's entirely possible (indeed very likely) that we are seeing some phenomenon that's very short-lived in astronomical terms.

I find that stretches credibility too far.

Offline meekGee

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #524 on: 07/02/2017 12:07 am »
It's possible that we won the cosmic timeline lottery and are watching a shortlived phenomenon while it's active.
But odds would say that's unlikely though.

If this were the only star we were watching, yes. But given the number of stars being monitored, it's entirely possible (indeed very likely) that we are seeing some phenomenon that's very short-lived in astronomical terms.

Exactly.  And we were drawn to this star BECAUSE of this behavior, thus nulling the odds.

It's like you look at a population of 1,000,000 people, and specifically hunt for crazy behavior.  Then you find one, and my god!  the man is crazy!  What are the odds?
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Offline KelvinZero

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #525 on: 07/02/2017 05:01 am »
Exactly.  And we were drawn to this star BECAUSE of this behavior, thus nulling the odds.

It's like you look at a population of 1,000,000 people, and specifically hunt for crazy behavior.  Then you find one, and my god!  the man is crazy!  What are the odds?
Probably just clarifying what you are saying, when you say crazy, you mean a diverse set of things we would lump under 'crazy', not a specific well defined crazy.

If you look at a hundred stars and see a 1/trillion event, that does not mean the odds were 100/trillion, the odds were 100*(the number of possible events that we would consider really 1:trillion weird)/trillion

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #526 on: 07/02/2017 07:55 am »
It's possible that we won the cosmic timeline lottery and are watching a shortlived phenomenon while it's active.
But odds would say that's unlikely though.

If this were the only star we were watching, yes. But given the number of stars being monitored, it's entirely possible (indeed very likely) that we are seeing some phenomenon that's very short-lived in astronomical terms.

Exactly.  And we were drawn to this star BECAUSE of this behavior, thus nulling the odds.

It's like you look at a population of 1,000,000 people, and specifically hunt for crazy behavior.  Then you find one, and my god!  the man is crazy!  What are the odds?
But it wasn't apparently the only star that Kepler looked at that seemed to be behaving oddly. It's just it has had the follow up the others haven't.

Offline as58

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #527 on: 07/02/2017 08:12 am »
But it wasn't apparently the only star that Kepler looked at that seemed to be behaving oddly. It's just it has had the follow up the others haven't.

I'm not aware of anything other behaving nearly this oddly. Some run-of-the-mill oddness can of course be found in more or less every star, if looked close enough.

Anyway, if the secular dimming is real, we are looking at a relatively short-lived event in astronomical terms, no matter what is causing it. A star can't keep dimming ~20 percent per century for very long before it's no longer observable.

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #528 on: 07/02/2017 08:27 am »


This star just gets stranger now it appears there might be pulsations in the signal. So is the star variable.

If this is real it must be the star as dust is not known to pulse.
« Last Edit: 07/02/2017 08:34 am by Star One »

Online LouScheffer

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #529 on: 07/02/2017 12:11 pm »
It's possible that we won the cosmic timeline lottery and are watching a shortlived phenomenon while it's active.
But odds would say that's unlikely though.
If this were the only star we were watching, yes. But given the number of stars being monitored, it's entirely possible (indeed very likely) that we are seeing some phenomenon that's very short-lived in astronomical terms.
Einstein predicted gravitational lensing, but concluded that since a most unlikely alignment is needed, it only lasts a few days, and it never repeats, "there is no great chance of observing this phenomenon".   He was correct that the needed alignment is very rare, but microlensing surveys get around this by monitoring millions of stars for many years.  So per star, it's very unlikely, but if you watch enough stars, you'll see it.

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #530 on: 07/02/2017 12:15 pm »
It's possible that we won the cosmic timeline lottery and are watching a shortlived phenomenon while it's active.
But odds would say that's unlikely though.
If this were the only star we were watching, yes. But given the number of stars being monitored, it's entirely possible (indeed very likely) that we are seeing some phenomenon that's very short-lived in astronomical terms.
Einstein predicted gravitational lensing, but concluded that since a most unlikely alignment is needed, it only lasts a few days, and it never repeats, "there is no great chance of observing this phenomenon".   He was correct that the needed alignment is very rare, but microlensing surveys get around this by monitoring millions of stars for many years.  So per star, it's very unlikely, but if you watch enough stars, you'll see it.

The problem with this argument is you could just as easily apply to ETI, yet people are more willing to accept a natural explanation when in fact they are both equally unlikely or likely depending on your viewpoint.

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #531 on: 07/02/2017 06:35 pm »

Offline meekGee

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #532 on: 07/02/2017 06:58 pm »
It's possible that we won the cosmic timeline lottery and are watching a shortlived phenomenon while it's active.
But odds would say that's unlikely though.
If this were the only star we were watching, yes. But given the number of stars being monitored, it's entirely possible (indeed very likely) that we are seeing some phenomenon that's very short-lived in astronomical terms.
Einstein predicted gravitational lensing, but concluded that since a most unlikely alignment is needed, it only lasts a few days, and it never repeats, "there is no great chance of observing this phenomenon".   He was correct that the needed alignment is very rare, but microlensing surveys get around this by monitoring millions of stars for many years.  So per star, it's very unlikely, but if you watch enough stars, you'll see it.

The problem with this argument is you could just as easily apply to ETI, yet people are more willing to accept a natural explanation when in fact they are both equally unlikely or likely depending on your viewpoint.

How so?

ETI is about cause.  The argument is about observations, and about phenomena being transient, whatever their cause may be.

The argument says that the odds of observing a transient phenomena, when observing a huge star field and specifically hunting for "abnormal" behaviors is not slim.

In astronomy, when you start by looking at a specific star, it is customary to discount transient phenomena, since "what are the odds".  And that's a valid methodology.

It shouldn't be applied to Kepler-like observations, however. It is quite likely that Kepler will catch some transients happening, and BS may be just one such.
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Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #533 on: 07/02/2017 07:37 pm »

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #534 on: 07/03/2017 07:00 am »
Latest update.

Quote
Here is the combined light curve for dates June 1 - July 2 using daily average data from both the OGG and TFN sites. Often times there is agreement between sites with the "adjacent" observations, taken ~12 hours apart.  On the other hand, we can possibly see variability on timescales less than a day, too (look at data taken between days ~44-48).  Neat!

http://www.wherestheflux.com/single-post/2017/07/02/Dip-update-22n
« Last Edit: 07/03/2017 07:01 am by Star One »

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #535 on: 07/03/2017 07:25 am »
Question:

Have these tiny light fluctuations of the last month or so (less than 0.5% of the flux) been going on for all of the past year while news from the star has been virtually zero? Or was the star pretty dead in terms of light fluctuations until the May dip suddenly kick started a new period of small scale variability?

What I'm trying to get at is people are now suddenly getting daily updates from Gary Bruce and others about every minute fluctuation, and coming up with all kinds of questions and theories about it. But before that, all we were really waiting for were the 8%, 15% and 22% dips. Were the small fluctuations simply not getting much attention until recently, or did they only start increasing in frequency after the May dip, which started the current cycle of interest in the star?

Offline hop

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #536 on: 07/03/2017 07:38 am »
Have these tiny light fluctuations of the last month or so (less than 0.5% of the flux) been going on for all of the past year while news from the star has been virtually zero? Or was the star pretty dead in terms of light fluctuations until the May dip suddenly kick started a new period of small scale variability?
It was observed to be stable within the uncertainties for a significant time before, by Boyajian's group and others. The May dip was the first conclusive dip since Kepler that they recognized. Of course there could have been dips that were missed in the parts of the year the star isn't observable, or due to weather etc.

edit:
Here's an update reporting no (real) dips http://www.wherestheflux.com/single-post/2017/01/03/November-science-update
« Last Edit: 07/03/2017 07:38 am by hop »

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #537 on: 07/03/2017 07:54 am »
Question:

Have these tiny light fluctuations of the last month or so (less than 0.5% of the flux) been going on for all of the past year while news from the star has been virtually zero? Or was the star pretty dead in terms of light fluctuations until the May dip suddenly kick started a new period of small scale variability?

What I'm trying to get at is people are now suddenly getting daily updates from Gary Bruce and others about every minute fluctuation, and coming up with all kinds of questions and theories about it. But before that, all we were really waiting for were the 8%, 15% and 22% dips. Were the small fluctuations simply not getting much attention until recently, or did they only start increasing in frequency after the May dip, which started the current cycle of interest in the star?

From my rough understanding it seems to have all kicked off with the May dip, before then the star appears to have been behaving fairly normally for this class of star.

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #538 on: 07/03/2017 07:19 pm »
Latest update is that the star's brightness is back to normal for now.

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #539 on: 07/03/2017 10:32 pm »
This star just gets stranger now it appears there might be pulsations in the signal. So is the star variable.

If this is real it must be the star as dust is not known to pulse.

Not true.  Even if it's real it doesn't mean dust is ruled out.  The video you got this information from even mentions this.  It could be dust with structure, for example dust rotating around an object.  Or it could be that the pulsing is in the star but unrelated to the other dipping that has been seen.

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