Author Topic: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)  (Read 631373 times)

Offline someguy

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #900 on: 12/30/2010 07:45 pm »
No, it can't.  There is no west coast capability in March for Spacex to offer.

Does SpaceX require the availability in March 2011 for them to be selected for a mission that is to be launched in 2015?

If SpaceX's stated intention (according to http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=27574) is to have the west coast capability available in 2012, is it only sufficient for selection if and only if the capability is available in March 2011?

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #901 on: 12/30/2010 07:50 pm »
I think a better question is West Coast part of SpaceX's west coast NLS listing? If not, I don't see how they can even submit a bid to NASA.
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Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #902 on: 12/30/2010 07:51 pm »
Also in
http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=27574

Quote
Elon: .... Over forty launches manifested by the end of the year.

Currently the manifest shows 27 launches, including 7 in 2011, plus however many additional launches will be done for Orbcomm and Iridium.  Of course, it also fails to note that COTS-1 has lunched.  When they do get around to updating the published manifest, it will be very interesting.
« Last Edit: 12/30/2010 08:01 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline apace

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #903 on: 12/30/2010 07:55 pm »
Looks like they have other priorities than updating their website... and there MUST be more photographs or videos about the first flight... I'm sure they had more than one cam inside the dragon...

Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #904 on: 12/30/2010 08:48 pm »

If SpaceX's stated intention (according to http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=27574) is to have the west coast capability available in 2012, is it only sufficient for selection if and only if the capability is available in March 2011?

Intentions are not good enough for procurement.

Offline mmeijeri

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #905 on: 12/30/2010 09:30 pm »
Intentions are not good enough for procurement.

Unless it is an in-house NASA HSF effort, in which case it can go right on the critical path...
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Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #906 on: 12/30/2010 09:44 pm »

If SpaceX's stated intention (according to http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=27574) is to have the west coast capability available in 2012, is it only sufficient for selection if and only if the capability is available in March 2011?

Intentions are not good enough for procurement.
At least the CONAE contracts with SpaceX require polar orbits on a Falcon 9. So they are already contractually bind. I'm sure they offer the Vandenberg launch option and that's why they have the use of SLC-4E. Please correct me, but didn't Delta 4 Heavy had a contract before being built?
If I'm not mistaken NLS will ask bids for each specific mission and get proposals from all interested parties. May be this was already done and you got to see all standing offers? May be you have access to the current offering by SpaceX to NASA Launch Services II contract and all "on ramp" clauses applied? Or simply point me to the PDF or even the kind of search I should do, and I'll read all the relevant available information. Or may be the GAO didn't know squat about what they wrote about, so they shouldn't have mentioned SMAP specifically as a reason to take a decision on qualifying the Falcon 9 for launch?

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #907 on: 12/31/2010 12:31 am »
So is the end of Dnepr good news for Falcon 1e?

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=23691.msg0#new
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Offline MP99


If SpaceX's stated intention (according to http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=27574) is to have the west coast capability available in 2012, is it only sufficient for selection if and only if the capability is available in March 2011?

Intentions are not good enough for procurement.
At least the CONAE contracts with SpaceX require polar orbits on a Falcon 9. So they are already contractually bind. I'm sure they offer the Vandenberg launch option and that's why they have the use of SLC-4E.

Note the details on SpaceX's launch manifest. Vandenberg isn't the only option, apparently:-

Quote
CONAE (Argentina)   2012   Falcon 9   Vandenberg**
CONAE (Argentina)2013Falcon 9Vandenberg**

**Or Kwajalein, depending on range availability

cheers, Martin

Offline Hauerg

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #909 on: 12/31/2010 09:34 am »
So is the end of Dnepr good news for Falcon 1e?

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=23691.msg0#new

IF it is indeed the end it might help the F1e. But payload is in different class, Dnepr could/can lift up to 4500kg.

Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #910 on: 12/31/2010 12:14 pm »
Please correct me, but didn't Delta 4 Heavy had a contract before being built?


Its development was contracted.

Offline Antares

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #911 on: 01/03/2011 06:14 am »
For the love of Pete, please stop believing the manifest on the SpaceX web site.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #912 on: 01/03/2011 01:23 pm »
For the love of Pete, please stop believing the manifest on the SpaceX web site.

You mean the first Falcon 9 flight really did not occur in 2009?

...and flight two has yet to occur?
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Offline MP99

Note the details on SpaceX's launch manifest. Vandenberg isn't the only option, apparently:-

Quote
CONAE (Argentina)   2012   Falcon 9   Vandenberg**
CONAE (Argentina)2013Falcon 9Vandenberg**

**Or Kwajalein, depending on range availability


For the love of Pete, please stop believing the manifest on the SpaceX web site.


I have very little trust in any dates listed on the manifest.

2x F1e , 5x F9 & 4x Dragon flights while completing development of Dragon & F1e would be a tremendous step up from anything they've demonstrated so far in flight rate, or in keeping to a promised schedule.


Ignoring the dates, are you saying that I shouldn't believe that SpaceX have a contract to launch two SAOCOM satellites, or that Vandenberg or Kwajalein are launch possibilities?

thanks, Martin
« Last Edit: 01/03/2011 02:08 pm by MP99 »

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #914 on: 01/03/2011 03:00 pm »
Intentions are not good enough for procurement.

Unless it is an in-house NASA HSF effort, in which case it can go right on the critical path...

Ooooo.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #915 on: 01/03/2011 04:03 pm »
For the love of Pete, please stop believing the manifest on the SpaceX web site.

Ignoring the dates, are you saying that I shouldn't believe that SpaceX have a contract to launch two SAOCOM satellites, or that Vandenberg or Kwajalein are launch possibilities?
I know that the SAOCOM are way behind schedule, we'd be lucky if the first launch is 2014 (I see more 2015). They are developing a synthetic aperture radar on the L-Band. They still have to flight the prototype on a plane. So the payload will be late. Argentina usually chooses cheap and functional, we simply can't afford fast.
But the contract exists and a first down payment was made.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #916 on: 01/03/2011 04:37 pm »
For the love of Pete, please stop believing the manifest on the SpaceX web site.

Ignoring the dates, are you saying that I shouldn't believe that SpaceX have a contract to launch two SAOCOM satellites, or that Vandenberg or Kwajalein are launch possibilities?
I know that the SAOCOM are way behind schedule, we'd be lucky if the first launch is 2014 (I see more 2015). They are developing a synthetic aperture radar on the L-Band. They still have to flight the prototype on a plane. So the payload will be late. Argentina usually chooses cheap and functional, we simply can't afford fast.
But the contract exists and a first down payment was made.
This seems about right. SpaceX is capable of doing what they claim they can do. The latest successes highlight that. But not in the time-frame that they claim (or subtly hint). And their total costs are likely to be higher than their claims, too, but perhaps still notably less than the "domestic aerospace norm," though that last point is certainly up for debate.
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Offline Antares

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #917 on: 01/03/2011 05:01 pm »
What Baldusi said.  And: when things are still in early planning and haven't been decided, the options are nearly infinite.  Why stop at VAFB and Kwaj?  Kodiak?  Chile?  Brazoria County?  Nova Scotia?  Puerto Rico?

Maybe Elon and his scurvy swabs will just hijack the Sea Launch platform.

My point is that conjecture based on marketing is a tenuous basis for a point.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #918 on: 01/03/2011 05:54 pm »
And: when things are still in early planning and haven't been decided, the options are nearly infinite.  Why stop at VAFB and Kwaj?  Kodiak?  Chile?  Brazoria County?  Nova Scotia?  Puerto Rico?
Ironically, Argentina has the southernmost city in the world (Ushuaia), with a deep water port and a high technology manufacturing distric. The only issue is that the sunsynchronous orbit would be retrograde respect to orbits launched from the Northern Hemisphere, would that be a problem?
But I think the site will be Vandenberg SLC-4E, SpaceX just retrofitted a Titan 4 pad, the facilities are top notch and the transportation is good. And I feel that USAF won't mind developing a potential second option to ULA. Seeing them work up close, develop a working relationship with the 45th Wing, checking their installations and assessing their processes.
In any case I don't think that you should underestimate SpaceX's manifest, save for dates. It's perfectly valid for stating that they've generated a lot of interest and have lots of orders. But being an unknown and risky alternative, they will get the poor and risky clients. In fact, they appear to be riskier on delivering on time, but performance and capabilities they appear to be able to deliver. What's more, you are underestimating the general devaluation of the dollar. If you expected a price of 27M in 2003/4 that easily translates to 40M today, and about 47M for 2015. Coming from a third world country, I'm used to a money losing its value. It's difficult for you, that have been the premier accounts denominator. But regrettably that's the price you'll pay for your fiscal deficit and lax bank regulation and cowboy economic attitude. I real pity since you used to were a beacon of true capitalism to the rest of the world.
« Last Edit: 01/03/2011 05:56 pm by baldusi »

Offline go4mars

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 2)
« Reply #919 on: 01/03/2011 07:21 pm »
What's more, you are underestimating the general devaluation of the dollar. If you expected a price of 27M in 2003/4 that easily translates to 40M today, and about 47M for 2015.
By 2015 I think it will be closer to an equivalent value of $80-$100Million than $47M.  Quantitative Easing.  It's called "printing your way out of debt = massive inflation".  That is also imo why there is a thread about future EELV prices going a lot higher.  No.  More like the dollar going a lot lower!

But regrettably that's the price you'll pay for your fiscal deficit and lax bank regulation. I real pity since you used to were a beacon of true capitalism to the rest of the world.
 
Amen.
« Last Edit: 01/03/2011 07:22 pm by go4mars »
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