Author Topic: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon 1 Launch 5 (RazakSat) - July 13/14  (Read 355120 times)

Offline NUAETIUS

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon 1 Launch 5 (RazakSat) - July 13/14
« Reply #960 on: 07/20/2009 12:22 am »
Lets keep this on topic or I may as well lock it, thanks.

There is really not much else to talk about for this launch, no accident report, vehicle is in the proper orbit, all pictures that are likely to get released have been.

I say lock it for a few weeks, that way the chatter about the next manned Falcon 1s and SpaceX PR debate.  This thread is 15 pages too long and growing.
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Offline mlorrey

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon 1 Launch 5 (RazakSat) - July 13/14
« Reply #961 on: 07/20/2009 02:45 am »
Falcon 1e, which all future Falcon 1 launches will be, will supposedly lift over 1,000 kg.

Somewhere there is a thread discussing whether a modern day Mercury could mass less than 1,000 kg.  I think it could.  LAS might be a bit tricky.

Quite right. Minus the escape tower, Mercury was 1354 kg. Personally I consider escape towers as a waste of mass and money. Most launch mishaps are going to be on the pad or a second stage separation/ignition failure. In the first case you wont survive even with an escape tower, in the second you dont need an escape tower.

So, can we drop the mass by 1/4? Thats not hard with modern technologies. In my experience with high performance fighter jets compared to 1950's era technology, the 1950's tech tended to be 40-50% avionics mass as a percent of dry weight. Clearly with modern electronics technologies, we can cut that mass by 80-90%. I can't find a Mercury mass budget T.O., can someone post one up if they have it?
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Offline mlorrey

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon 1 Launch 5 (RazakSat) - July 13/14
« Reply #962 on: 07/20/2009 02:48 am »

B. Falcon might have trouble with the wings, thats for some simulator and wind tunnel time to determine. Its not that hard to design a vehicle to develop zero lift at zero angle of attack. The design as is keeps the wings clear of the upper stage.
C. Richard Garriot just paid $35 million for a ride on Soyuz,


b.  The issue is that a zero AOA flight is impossible and then there are gusts

C.  The numbers  I refer to that have no basis in reality is your per unit cost of the spacecraft. 

You haven't done anything except powerpoint concepts.  When have you bent metal on a real spacecraft?

Real spacecraft, no. Real fighter aircraft, yes. Aerospace engineering, from my education, is pretty common between spacecraft and high performance aircraft. Not completely so, but enough.

Zero AOA isnt impossible at all, particularly given a ballistic trajectory.
« Last Edit: 07/20/2009 02:50 am by mlorrey »
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Offline Art LeBrun

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon 1 Launch 5 (RazakSat) - July 13/14
« Reply #963 on: 07/20/2009 03:03 am »
Falcon 1e, which all future Falcon 1 launches will be, will supposedly lift over 1,000 kg.

Somewhere there is a thread discussing whether a modern day Mercury could mass less than 1,000 kg.  I think it could.  LAS might be a bit tricky.

Quite right. Minus the escape tower, Mercury was 1354 kg. Personally I consider escape towers as a waste of mass and money. Most launch mishaps are going to be on the pad or a second stage separation/ignition failure. In the first case you wont survive even with an escape tower, in the second you dont need an escape tower.


In the days of Mercury there were many failure modes beyond what you stated. Also on pad failures are very escapable due to abort sensing instrumentation and that fact that rockets almost never abruptly explode on the pad (Atlas 11F might be the exception).
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Offline The-Hammer

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon 1 Launch 5 (RazakSat) - July 13/14
« Reply #964 on: 07/20/2009 03:09 am »
I consider escape towers as a waste of mass and money. Most launch mishaps are going to be on the pad or a second stage separation/ignition failure. In the first case you wont survive even with an escape tower, in the second you dont need an escape tower.

I'm certain Vasili Lazarev, Oleg Makarov, Vladimir Titov and Gennady Strekalov would disagree.
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Offline Chandonn

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon 1 Launch 5 (RazakSat) - July 13/14
« Reply #965 on: 07/20/2009 03:32 am »
Lets keep this on topic or I may as well lock it, thanks.

There is really not much else to talk about for this launch, no accident report, vehicle is in the proper orbit, all pictures that are likely to get released have been.

I say lock it for a few weeks, that way the chatter about the next manned Falcon 1s and SpaceX PR debate.  This thread is 15 pages too long and growing.

AGREED!  The launch was successful, the satellite is in orbit, and the Falcon 1 is over (now on to the Falcon 9 and the Falcon 1e).  The conversation is getting way off-topic and tedious.  It is time to close the thread.

Offline kkattula

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon 1 Launch 5 (RazakSat) - July 13/14
« Reply #966 on: 07/20/2009 05:54 am »

Offline Carl G

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon 1 Launch 5 (RazakSat) - July 13/14
« Reply #967 on: 08/02/2009 05:05 am »
Unlocked, as there's no reason for it to be locked.

Offline cuddihy

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon 1 Launch 5 (RazakSat) - July 13/14
« Reply #968 on: 08/03/2009 02:44 am »

A. All the news reports say its an 8 million dollar launch cost. This 2003 article on spacex.com quotes $6 million: https://spacex.com/media.php?page=6. Spaceref quotes $6.7 million: http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=18353  DailyKos says $8 million: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/7/14/753329/-Yesterday-began-the-dawn-of-a-new-era-in-space-exploration


I believe those numbers are from when SpaceX was trying to drum up customers (theoretical supply exceeded demand). Now they have more missions on their manifest than they can handle.

Let's do some math on supportability at profit:

First, some non-negotiables:
Range fees and related govt services for launch: $140-160,000
US Merchant ship from Long Beach to Omelek for first stage: $200-350,000. (likely higher because no paying cargo on return)
Two-way C130 from CA to Kwaj for second stage: $90-100,000.

Ok, so your transportation and range fees have left you with $7.5 Million for everything else, including pad techs, launch and flight support engineers (some travel costs assoc), machinsts, materials, and fuel (including fuel to support your Omelek facility generators)

First split out the 1st stage engine. Say a Merlin 1C costs you $750,000. I think too low, but it's a start.

Okay, so a little over $6.7M left. Let's make this easy and assume the materiel for the rest of the rocket cost $0.01 total.

Now, if you figure an average engineer / technician /machinist cost of
$150,000/ year, that buys you only 45 people at a launch rate of 1/year. That's the rate they currently have planned, by the way.

But we know they have 4-5 people out in Omelek. So that's actually only 40 people to work on your rocket. Is that in any way sustainable?

Say they quadruple their launch rate. Ok, now you have 180 people to build your rocket... or rather 180 people to build one rocket every three months. Is that workable? Unlikely.

We know that SpaceX had north of 500 people, probably at least a third to a half of whom were focused on ensuring their first commercial flight went off right, while they spent 9 months building and preparing flight 5.

You can only guesstimate so much. But it's a pretty safe bet that Falcon 1 isn't sustainable at $8Million, either at a flight rate of 1 a year or 4 a year.

My spidey intution says an optimal flight rate for a F1 sized rocket at $8 Million per launch is between 12-14 launches per year (at least 1 a month). Oh, and do it from CONUS.

Offline corrodedNut

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon 1 Launch 5 (RazakSat) - July 13/14
« Reply #969 on: 08/04/2009 04:23 pm »
SpaceX now has Hi-res images of F1 flight5 on their photo page:

https://spacex.com/photo_gallery.php

Three different shots, enjoy!

Offline ugordan

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon 1 Launch 5 (RazakSat) - July 13/14
« Reply #970 on: 08/04/2009 04:48 pm »
SpaceX now has Hi-res images of F1 flight5 on their photo page:

I was kinda hoping those 3 would be the helicopter shots. Turns out it's the same 3 high res ground shots that went out with the press release, but never made it on their site in full res.

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