Quote from: envy887 on 06/07/2017 02:55 amI was asking which ones specifically you find inconsistent.All of them. We have LSP's numbers (pre-Block-5?); then we have SpaceX published estimates (Block-5?); then we have member estimates (all over the map). Not unexpected that they are inconsistent.
I was asking which ones specifically you find inconsistent.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 06/07/2017 11:06 pmQuote from: ncb1397 on 06/07/2017 09:41 pmNot to mention that ~6 mT comsats already are almost maxing out the fairing:That doesn't look like a 5m fairing, and Falcon 9 fairing internal volume looks much bigger (see below with Jason 3 payload):It is. Jason 3 is just tiny, only 553 kg.
Quote from: ncb1397 on 06/07/2017 09:41 pmNot to mention that ~6 mT comsats already are almost maxing out the fairing:That doesn't look like a 5m fairing, and Falcon 9 fairing internal volume looks much bigger (see below with Jason 3 payload):
Not to mention that ~6 mT comsats already are almost maxing out the fairing:
Look at the shape of the fairings in the pictures. The first one is clearly conical, whereas the Falcon 9 one has a long, straight body in the middle.ncb1397 could help clear this up by telling us what the payload was in the picture he supplied, and what the launcher was.
Working backward from the Trans-Mars values published by SpaceX, I came up with 5.6 tonnes TLI for F9B5 and 20.9 tonnes TLI for FH. I'm honestly having trouble seeing how Falcon Heavy meets its claimed payload goals, let alone the numbers we've conjured in our guesstimates, unless it incorporates yet-to-be-revealed improvements. To be conservative, I'm putting these at 5.5 tonnes and 20.5 tonnes, respectfully. - Ed Kyle
Quote from: Hyperion5 on 06/08/2017 03:14 am Now you're doubting the latest upward revision for the Falcon Heavy. I have no basis to believe or to doubt the projected capabilities. The truth is that no Falcon 9 has yet lifted anything close to the various capability claims made for the various versions through the years, but my problem with Falcon Heavy is that I simply haven't been able to conjure a model of this rocket that makes the LEO, GTO, TMI, etc. numbers converge. I'm still trying. - Ed Kyle
Now you're doubting the latest upward revision for the Falcon Heavy.
Quote from: Hyperion5 on 06/08/2017 03:14 am Now you're doubting the latest upward revision for the Falcon Heavy. I have no basis to believe or to doubt the projected capabilities. The truth is that no Falcon 9 has yet lifted anything close to the various capability claims made for the various versions through the years
Quote from: envy887 on 06/09/2017 02:23 amEd, what's your source for the Vulcan numbers? The NASA OIG report on Exploration released a few months ago lists Vulcan-ACES as capable of 14 t to TLI and 10.5 t to TMI.I was extrapolating from the numbers presented on this, and similar, ULA charts. Perhaps ULA has upgraded its performance estimates since this chart was released. - Ed Kyle
Ed, what's your source for the Vulcan numbers? The NASA OIG report on Exploration released a few months ago lists Vulcan-ACES as capable of 14 t to TLI and 10.5 t to TMI.
The 2-stage version is claimed to be able to get 13 tonnes to GTO, so the second stage must be pretty efficient and perhaps lighter (smaller) than it appears in the illustrations. Pretty amazing when you think about it really - more payload than any two-stage rocket in service (and this with first stage recovery). My guess today for New Glenn 2-stage is 8.5 tonnes TLI and 5 tonnes Trans-Mars based on the following guesstimates. (Ask me tomorrow and I might guess differently).S1 1,250 tonnes > 125 tonnes, ISP 329 secS2 155 tonnes > 12.37 tonnes, ISP 360 secPLF 4 tonnesPL = 45 tonnes, delta-v = 9200 m/sPL = 13 tonnes, delta-v = 11720 m/sPL = 8.5 tonnes, delta-v = 12,350 m/sPL = 5 tonnes, delta-v = 12,950 m/s
I wonder if it would be cheaper for Blue to put that 3rd stage directly on the booster to start with... It would still compete with F9R to GTO, and expend a much smaller stage with each launch.But yes, the 3 stage New Glenn is going to be a beast to high orbits...
Some more information on SLS payload capacity released today. Doesn't look like Block 2 will hit 50 tonnes to TLI or 40 tonnes to Mars. Block 1B estimates appear to be pretty accurate though...
Quote from: envy887 on 06/15/2017 07:33 pmSome more information on SLS payload capacity released today. Doesn't look like Block 2 will hit 50 tonnes to TLI or 40 tonnes to Mars. Block 1B estimates appear to be pretty accurate though...From the figures, I can't see the value of Block 2. Other than meeting the technical LEO requirements of the legislation, it doesn't add enough to actual BLEO mission payloads to be worth the money and time.
Just out of curiosity and I might already know the answer but why is ITS not included? I am assuming because it has no set timeline yet per say.