Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 417127 times)

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #360 on: 10/11/2016 03:09 am »

SpaceX can't just switch a used core to a random customer. They should have plenty of new cores being constructed.

Why not? The cores are identical, not custom made to a particular mission.

(obviously you have to deal with satisfying two customers who both want to fly first, but that is a business issue, nothing to do with the core)

Most of the customers have contracts to fly on a new rocket.  You can't switch in a used rocket without modifying the contract.  They also already have a customer for the first reused core.  They would have to get another used core ready for launch.  And they should have several new cores ready by the time they RTF.  It would make absolutely no sense to launch the RTF on a used core unless it was SES-10 as the payload.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #361 on: 10/11/2016 03:33 am »
Will Core #23 still be used for SES-10, or will it be switched to EchoStar 23 just because SpaceX wants to start reusage?

This post and all of the responses depart from the intent of this thread.  (You can ask starhawk92.) The specific core, and which ones will be reflown, are ancillary information on the manifest.  Moreover, we are posting what has been ANNOUNCED, not what could be.  There are a plethora of threads in which to discuss the potential for reuse, the nature of launch contracts, and which flight might do whatever. 

Right now this thread is in disarray, reflecting the indefiniteness of the Falcon program pending announcements of Return to Flight and the pace immediately afterwards.  Only the Mars launch windows have fixed dates.

At this time there are ~36 missions before Red Dragon 1 and ~19 months with one functional launch pad.  Something has to give, and we will be ready to post whatever SpaceX announces it will be.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #362 on: 10/13/2016 07:38 pm »
(Cross-posted with the discussion thread.)

Quoted from  https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/57balr/details_from_elons_speech_at_the_nro/

Quote
Details from Elon's speech at the NRO (self.spacex)
submitted 23 minutes ago * by Ravenous117
...

Addressing return to flight:

“The plan is to get back to launch in early December and that will be from pad 39A at the Cape and we will be launching around the same time from Vandenberg as well. Pad 40 will probably be back in action around March or April next year. Probably around May or so is when we will launch Falcon Heavy. We are going to re-fly the first returned core December or January.  We have test fired one of the returned cores 8 times and it looks good.  That is promising for testing re-flight.”


...

These are my personal accounts of what I heard from Elon live and the rough transcript is from a recording of the event. I do not know much other than what I heard but I wanted to share with you guys. Enjoy.

Still a bit early to rework the manifest until they actually announce RTF, but if this is legit then the RTF order could be something like:
1. one of the commsats, they could have several to choose from (EchoStar 23, SES-11/EchoStar 105, Koreasat, Inmarsat, ...)
2. Iridium flight 1
3. SES-10
4. CRS-10
and after they get through those they should have around a half dozen payloads waiting for launch.

Offline Navier–Stokes

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #363 on: 10/14/2016 12:37 am »
Looks like the RTF core may be on its way to McGregor shortly.



Credit to: https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/57denh/spotted_in_hawthorne_falcon_loaded_on_truck_with/
« Last Edit: 10/14/2016 12:38 am by Navier–Stokes »

Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #364 on: 10/14/2016 04:46 pm »
Just to keep it clean, updates on hardware and processing have other threads.  Only posts with manifest impacts here, please.  And thank you!

Can't quite smell RTF yet, but the light seems to be in the tunnel!

Thanks for everyone's contributions!

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #365 on: 10/15/2016 05:56 pm »
quoted from  https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/57balr/details_from_elons_speech_at_the_nro/

Quote
Details from Elon's speech at the NRO (self.spacex)
submitted 23 minutes ago * by Ravenous117

Addressing return to flight:

“The plan is to get back to launch in early December and that will be from pad 39A at the Cape and we will be launching around the same time from Vandenberg as well. Pad 40 will probably be back in action around March or April next year. Probably around May or so is when we will launch Falcon Heavy. We are going to re-fly the first returned core December or January.  We have test fired one of the returned cores 8 times and it looks good.  That is promising for testing re-flight.”

These are my personal accounts of what I heard from Elon live and the rough transcript is from a recording of the event. I do not know much other than what I heard but I wanted to share with you guys. Enjoy.


Three data points for the manifest, with my emphasis, albeit without mentioning specific RTF missions.
edit: Original reddit post at link above has been removed.
« Last Edit: 10/15/2016 05:58 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #366 on: 10/21/2016 02:27 pm »
Is this a new payload?

Quote
Bangabandhu Satellite
Quote

    Home
    Science & Tech

50pc work of Bangabandhu Satellite completed: Tarana
BSS . Dhaka | Update: 19:21, Oct 21, 2016
0 Like
 
 
 
 
 
 

BangabandhuState minister for post and telecommunications Tarana Halim on Friday revealed that 50 per cent works of Bangladesh’s first satellite ‘Bangabandhu-I’ has been completed. 

“So far 83 per cent engineering works of the Bangabandhu-I has been done while progress of antenna manufacture is 56 per cent and works of communication and service modules reported 65 per cent development,” said the minister. 

Tarana Halim said this while briefing newsmen about the satellite and optical fiber network of BTCL at BTCL Gulshan-1 Exchange Office in the morning. 

Referring to the completion of satellite system requirement review (SRR) preliminary design review (PDR), she said, “We would start the commercial operation of the satellite in March 2018 after launching it to the space on 16 December next year.”

If the current pace of work is continued, manufacture of the satellite would be completed in November 2017, said the state minister, adding, “The satellite would be launched using vehicle -SpaceX and Falcon 9 -of United States from the Cape Carnival Launch Pad.”

http://en.prothom-alo.com/science-technology/news/125991/50pc-work-of-Bangabandhu-Satellite-completed
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #367 on: 10/21/2016 02:31 pm »
Is this a new payload?

Quote
Bangabandhu Satellite
Quote

    Home
    Science & Tech

50pc work of Bangabandhu Satellite completed: Tarana
BSS . Dhaka | Update: 19:21, Oct 21, 2016
0 Like
 
 
 
 
 
 

BangabandhuState minister for post and telecommunications Tarana Halim on Friday revealed that 50 per cent works of Bangladesh’s first satellite ‘Bangabandhu-I’ has been completed. 

“So far 83 per cent engineering works of the Bangabandhu-I has been done while progress of antenna manufacture is 56 per cent and works of communication and service modules reported 65 per cent development,” said the minister. 

Tarana Halim said this while briefing newsmen about the satellite and optical fiber network of BTCL at BTCL Gulshan-1 Exchange Office in the morning. 

Referring to the completion of satellite system requirement review (SRR) preliminary design review (PDR), she said, “We would start the commercial operation of the satellite in March 2018 after launching it to the space on 16 December next year.”

If the current pace of work is continued, manufacture of the satellite would be completed in November 2017, said the state minister, adding, “The satellite would be launched using vehicle -SpaceX and Falcon 9 -of United States from the Cape Carnival Launch Pad.”

http://en.prothom-alo.com/science-technology/news/125991/50pc-work-of-Bangabandhu-Satellite-completed

This comsat was ordered in November last year and is being built by Thales Alenia Space, but no LSP has been mentioned till now: https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worldwide/space/press-release/thales-alenia-space-build-bangabandhu-telecommunication-satellite
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #368 on: 10/21/2016 02:54 pm »
Is this a new payload? [Bangabandhu Satellite]

That certainly is a new addition to the manifest. 

This comsat was ordered in November last year and is being built by Thales Alenia Space, but no LSP has been mentioned till now: https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worldwide/space/press-release/thales-alenia-space-build-bangabandhu-telecommunication-satellite

They want to launch on a rather specific day: ""We hope to carry out the launch on the 46th anniversary of our country's Victory Day, which will be on December 16th , 2017 ”.

According to the info on Gunter's page the estimated mass will be around 3500kg (somewhere in the 3000-4100kg range for that satellite bus)

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #369 on: 10/24/2016 03:55 pm »
New FCC applications from SpaceX:

Quote
This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for F9-31, a commercial GTO launch from Complex 39a, Kennedy Space Center
...
Operation Start Date:    12/01/2016

Seems to publicly confirm December RTF from the Cape is a GTO commsat (which we pretty much already knew, but nice to have confirmation).  December 1 should not be the actual launch date, the dates on the paperwork are always earlier than the launch.  They had already filed paperwork for the Iridium launch from Vandenberg as F9-30.  The mission numbers on the paperwork shouldn't have any bearing on which actually launches first.

Offline rocx

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #370 on: 10/25/2016 07:57 am »
I read that as 12th of January for a long time before reading your comment. Really wish US government entities would switch to yyyy-mm-dd or at least dd-mm-yyyy.
Any day with a rocket landing is a fantastic day.

Offline jacqmans

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Jacques :-)

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #372 on: 10/26/2016 03:25 pm »
http://www.ses.com/20641374/ses-14?platform=hootsuite

That's odd.
The link shows this, with "Launch date H2-2017":
It is not clear which is the current information.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #373 on: 10/26/2016 03:50 pm »
http://www.ses.com/20641374/ses-14?platform=hootsuite

That's odd.
The link shows this, with "Launch date H2-2017":
It is not clear which is the current information.

We've already had it as 4Q-2017 on the manifest.  I doubt anything will be moving to the left next year.
« Last Edit: 10/26/2016 04:14 pm by gongora »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #374 on: 10/27/2016 09:37 pm »
Intelsat Announces Third Quarter 2016 Results
Quote
The company has three satellite launches scheduled for 2017: Intelsat 32e, an Intelsat EpicNG Ku-band payload in the first quarter of 2017; Intelsat 35e in the second quarter of 2017, providing that there are no changes to SpaceX’s launch manifest as a result of its recent anomaly; and Intelsat 37e in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #375 on: 10/28/2016 09:34 am »
Quote
With SpaceX launch delays, SES now has six satellites to launch in 2017, beginning with SES-10 aboard reused Falcon 9 booster in Q1.

https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/791908112240300032

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #376 on: 10/31/2016 06:57 pm »
This is what we think is the current plan (but subject to change). Will set up relevant update threads, etc...when confirmed.

By Chris Gebhardt:

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/10/spacex-prepares-upcoming-falcon-9-amos-6/
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Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #377 on: 11/01/2016 06:13 pm »
Put Iridium and Echostar on top of the heap with CRS-10 on deck.  I think that is as aggressive as we can be, yet conservative enough to satisfy our more cautious brethren.

Go SpaceX!!

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #378 on: 11/03/2016 01:09 pm »
So Inmarsat 5 F4 really is launching on Falcon, and EuropaSat/HellasSat 3 may move to a different launch vehicle but final decision not made yet.

SpaceNews: Inmarsat, juggling two launches, says SpaceX to return to flight in December
Quote
Inmarsat has three launch contracts with SpaceX. Up to now, it had planned to launch its Inmarsat 5-F4 Ka-band broadband mobile communications satellite on a Falcon 9 in late 2016; an S-band aeronautical-connectivity satellite on a new Falcon Heavy rocket in early 2017; and the first of the Inmarsat-6 satellites after that.
Quote
Inmarsat has decided to stick with SpaceX for the 5-F4 satellite, but to seek alternatives for the mid-2017 S-band satellite launch.

“It’s largely a function of where you are in the manifest,” Pearce said of Inmarsat’s launch reasoning. “With Inmarsat 5 F4, we’re well up in the queue — I think we are number five or six.
...
With the S-band EAN satellite, he said, the reasoning is different.

“We are further [back in] the queue and therefore there’s a risk of further delays because SpaceX not only has to get back to flight but to demonstrate that it can maintain a very good launch schedule. So you could presumably have a day-to-day delay.
...
Pearce said it remain possible that SpaceX will be able to confirm a May or June launch, but that would be difficult to achieve in the deadline Inmarsat has to find an alternative rocket.
...
“It’s probably more likely we would look to exercise one of the options we have been quietly cultivating behind the scenes,” Pearce said. “We’ve talked about one of them, which is the [International Launch Services] Proton launch that we have up our sleeve anyway. But we do have other options as well...”

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #379 on: 11/03/2016 04:48 pm »
Inmarsat 6 F1 launching in 2020 is also a new addition to the manifest (see article in previous post).

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