Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD  (Read 267822 times)

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #40 on: 10/18/2013 06:32 pm »
SES-8 will be the third SpaceX launch on that particular bet. I don't remember who I owe beer to if Orbital Sciences does their next Antares flight before SpaceX does SES-8.

??

The bet was made before the last CRS flight, when SpaceX were saying they were going to launch it and two v1.1 flights before July. Rightful skepticism somehow mixed with enthusiasm for the three planned Antares flights.

I do recall that bet and (as I remember) it was about 3 Antares flights vs 3 Falcon 9 v1.1 flights.
So, the race is on between Antares CRS-1 and Falcon 9 - Thaicom 6.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #41 on: 10/18/2013 11:00 pm »
I do recall that bet and (as I remember) it was about 3 Antares flights vs 3 Falcon 9 v1.1 flights.
So, the race is on between Antares CRS-1 and Falcon 9 - Thaicom 6.

Okay, I'm wrong, you remember correctly.

Quote from: edfishel
Is this tweet from Jeff Foust correct?

Matsumori: next F9 launch in June from VAFB, then early July SES-8 launch and late July Thaicom-6 launch from Cape. #satshow

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=28882.msg1028070#msg1028070

Quote from: Lurker Steve
Quote from: QuantumG
Quote from: Lurker Steve
Anyone who thinks they have any chance of getting these 3 launches off on that aggressive schedule needs their head examined.

So, bet?

Sure, I have a better chance here than with Powerball. I'll bet a case of Dog Fish that Orbital gets it's 3 Antares missions complete before SpaceX is able to launch 3 F9 V1.1 missions.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=28882.msg1028326#msg1028326

Still looks like I'm gunna win ;)
« Last Edit: 10/18/2013 11:11 pm by QuantumG »
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Offline Wetmelon

Quote
The "wasn't a surprise" is what surprised me. Wonder if they had a known issue and continued with the schedule anyway as it wouldn't affect the CASSIOPE mission.

Or - and I'm totally guilty of this way of thinking - seeing the issue and hoping it wouldn't cause a problem during relight... then sighing dramatically when it fails.

Offline laika_fr

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #43 on: 10/20/2013 03:37 pm »
Gwynne said they bethink "operating on regular basis" which means the workflow is under control.
This schedule is not a coin flip.
 
a shrubbery on Mars

Offline Hooperball

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #44 on: 10/20/2013 04:55 pm »
Why would the schedule be a coin flip?

S

Offline PCSTEL

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #45 on: 10/29/2013 03:48 pm »
Now shows slipped into 2014.  That brings a total of 4 2013 launches now delayed till 2014 that were originally on the Planned launches at the beginning of 2013.


CRS3
Thaicom
Orbcomm
 FORMOSAT 5

Also the NLT March 31 Asiasat6 which had a backup launch contract on Proton has just gong TBD, indicating that that customer may opt for Proton.

Offline mlindner

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #46 on: 10/30/2013 06:48 am »
Now shows slipped into 2014.  That brings a total of 4 2013 launches now delayed till 2014 that were originally on the Planned launches at the beginning of 2013.


CRS3
Thaicom
Orbcomm
 FORMOSAT 5

Also the NLT March 31 Asiasat6 which had a backup launch contract on Proton has just gong TBD, indicating that that customer may opt for Proton.

Where? Seen several people mention January for Thaicom, but every source still says December. Wondering where people are pulling numbers out of their hat from.
« Last Edit: 10/30/2013 06:52 am by mlindner »
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Offline guckyfan

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #47 on: 10/30/2013 07:14 am »

Where? Seen several people mention January for Thaicom, but every source still says December. Wondering where people are pulling numbers out of their hat from.

The spaceflightnow launch schedule did show it NET January for a short time. I did see it. It is now back to December.


Offline Lars_J

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #48 on: 10/30/2013 02:54 pm »

Now shows slipped into 2014.  That brings a total of 4 2013 launches now delayed till 2014 that were originally on the Planned launches at the beginning of 2013.


CRS3
Thaicom
Orbcomm
 FORMOSAT 5

Also the NLT March 31 Asiasat6 which had a backup launch contract on Proton has just gong TBD, indicating that that customer may opt for Proton.

Where? Seen several people mention January for Thaicom, but every source still says December. Wondering where people are pulling numbers out of their hat from.

There are few reliable sources, so most end up just using each other as sources (inadvertently), which causes rumors to be quoted as "facts" fairly quickly.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #49 on: 10/30/2013 09:24 pm »
There are few reliable sources, so most end up just using each other as sources (inadvertently), which causes rumors to be quoted as "facts" fairly quickly.

All good rumors have an element of truth.. so when a journalist calls SpaceX PAO for confirmation and gets "we're not ready to give out that information yet", or something similar, it can seem like a hot tip.

Not to mention that sometimes SpaceX PAO will just say yes if the query is half-right.

These are some of the things I try to keep in mind when interrogating journalists to find out where they got their information.
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Offline PCSTEL

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #50 on: 10/31/2013 12:04 am »

Where? Seen several people mention January for Thaicom, but every source still says December. Wondering where people are pulling numbers out of their hat from.

Still shows January in the US Launcher section of the forum

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.720

I would also take note that CRS3 is on the manifest for Feb. 11th.  If there is any truth to the rumor of needing 30 days to roundabout a launch.  That would indicate they may need to get Thaicom off the pad by the 10th of January to make way for CRS3.  I would assume NASA takes priority.

Offline Roy_H

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #51 on: 10/31/2013 02:15 am »

I would also take note that CRS3 is on the manifest for Feb. 11th.  If there is any truth to the rumor of needing 30 days to roundabout a launch.  That would indicate they may need to get Thaicom off the pad by the 10th of January to make way for CRS3.  I would assume NASA takes priority.

NASA takes priority, but their priority is there must be 3 successful launches prior with ver 1.1. So the order of launches is pretty much cast in stone, and if Thaicom slips then so does CRS3. However I too have my doubts that the 30 days between launches is rigid, only desirable.
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #52 on: 10/31/2013 02:35 am »

I would also take note that CRS3 is on the manifest for Feb. 11th.  If there is any truth to the rumor of needing 30 days to roundabout a launch.  That would indicate they may need to get Thaicom off the pad by the 10th of January to make way for CRS3.  I would assume NASA takes priority.

NASA takes priority, but their priority is there must be 3 successful launches prior with ver 1.1. So the order of launches is pretty much cast in stone, and if Thaicom slips then so does CRS3. However I too have my doubts that the 30 days between launches is rigid, only desirable.
It is only a rumor right now, too. It badly needs some kind of citation.
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Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #53 on: 10/31/2013 11:37 am »
Btw, CRS-3 pacing item is the capsule. It might slip of their own yet.

Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #54 on: 10/31/2013 12:56 pm »
Btw, CRS-3 pacing item is the capsule. It might slip of their own yet.

And not wishing to jinx their schedule, but the farther CRS-3 slips, the more likely we are to see some Falcon legs on it.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #55 on: 10/31/2013 02:13 pm »
If they do not listen to the sources, they will not be convinced even if Elon tweets the delay. Luke 16:31

I would love to see this happen in 2013, but I think everyone can agree taking the time to make sure SES-8 goes off without a hitch and living with the delays it takes to analyze the mission is more important.
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It's your med's!

Online Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #56 on: 11/01/2013 02:47 pm »
If they do not listen to the sources, they will not be convinced even if Elon tweets the delay. Luke 16:31...
You win one internet.
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Offline Norm38

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #57 on: 11/12/2013 06:36 pm »
Here's an interesting thought.  Managers love to play games with shipments at the end of the year.  Do they need this Q4 to look good, or next Q1?  So considering the flight rate, SpaceX needs to start showing the ability to do lots of launches per year, right?

Well this year's already blown, but '14 could be a bumper crop.  So if they held off until just after New Year's, then they get a head start on running up '14s count.  For what it's worth...

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #58 on: 11/12/2013 11:12 pm »
I would tend to use a Napoleon quote for the slip... It is a knock on effect from delays caused by CASSIOPE launch analysis and  delays with the SES-8 campaign, and not an end of the quarter conspiracy.

No spin is needed.
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Offline aero

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - Thaicom 6 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #59 on: 11/12/2013 11:40 pm »
I would tend to use a Napoleon quote for the slip... It is a knock on effect from delays caused by CASSIOPE launch analysis and  delays with the SES-8 campaign, and not an end of the quarter conspiracy.

No spin is needed.

And note that we are at the point in development of the v1.1 where slips in the launch date trickles down to the whole manifest. Slipping the whole manifest adds up to a lot of money and will not be done lightly.

Of course the whole manifest was slipped by the introduction of the v1.1 but that was for good reasons even if we did hash it over on this forum.
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