Quote from: MP99 on 10/18/2013 05:46 amQuote from: QuantumG on 10/18/2013 04:14 amSES-8 will be the third SpaceX launch on that particular bet. I don't remember who I owe beer to if Orbital Sciences does their next Antares flight before SpaceX does SES-8.??The bet was made before the last CRS flight, when SpaceX were saying they were going to launch it and two v1.1 flights before July. Rightful skepticism somehow mixed with enthusiasm for the three planned Antares flights.
Quote from: QuantumG on 10/18/2013 04:14 amSES-8 will be the third SpaceX launch on that particular bet. I don't remember who I owe beer to if Orbital Sciences does their next Antares flight before SpaceX does SES-8.??
SES-8 will be the third SpaceX launch on that particular bet. I don't remember who I owe beer to if Orbital Sciences does their next Antares flight before SpaceX does SES-8.
I do recall that bet and (as I remember) it was about 3 Antares flights vs 3 Falcon 9 v1.1 flights. So, the race is on between Antares CRS-1 and Falcon 9 - Thaicom 6.
Is this tweet from Jeff Foust correct?Matsumori: next F9 launch in June from VAFB, then early July SES-8 launch and late July Thaicom-6 launch from Cape. #satshow
Quote from: QuantumGQuote from: Lurker SteveAnyone who thinks they have any chance of getting these 3 launches off on that aggressive schedule needs their head examined. So, bet?Sure, I have a better chance here than with Powerball. I'll bet a case of Dog Fish that Orbital gets it's 3 Antares missions complete before SpaceX is able to launch 3 F9 V1.1 missions.
Quote from: Lurker SteveAnyone who thinks they have any chance of getting these 3 launches off on that aggressive schedule needs their head examined. So, bet?
Anyone who thinks they have any chance of getting these 3 launches off on that aggressive schedule needs their head examined.
The "wasn't a surprise" is what surprised me. Wonder if they had a known issue and continued with the schedule anyway as it wouldn't affect the CASSIOPE mission.
Now shows slipped into 2014. That brings a total of 4 2013 launches now delayed till 2014 that were originally on the Planned launches at the beginning of 2013.CRS3ThaicomOrbcomm FORMOSAT 5Also the NLT March 31 Asiasat6 which had a backup launch contract on Proton has just gong TBD, indicating that that customer may opt for Proton.
Where? Seen several people mention January for Thaicom, but every source still says December. Wondering where people are pulling numbers out of their hat from.
Quote from: PCSTEL on 10/29/2013 03:48 pmNow shows slipped into 2014. That brings a total of 4 2013 launches now delayed till 2014 that were originally on the Planned launches at the beginning of 2013.CRS3ThaicomOrbcomm FORMOSAT 5Also the NLT March 31 Asiasat6 which had a backup launch contract on Proton has just gong TBD, indicating that that customer may opt for Proton.Where? Seen several people mention January for Thaicom, but every source still says December. Wondering where people are pulling numbers out of their hat from.
There are few reliable sources, so most end up just using each other as sources (inadvertently), which causes rumors to be quoted as "facts" fairly quickly.
I would also take note that CRS3 is on the manifest for Feb. 11th. If there is any truth to the rumor of needing 30 days to roundabout a launch. That would indicate they may need to get Thaicom off the pad by the 10th of January to make way for CRS3. I would assume NASA takes priority.
Quote from: PCSTEL on 10/31/2013 12:04 amI would also take note that CRS3 is on the manifest for Feb. 11th. If there is any truth to the rumor of needing 30 days to roundabout a launch. That would indicate they may need to get Thaicom off the pad by the 10th of January to make way for CRS3. I would assume NASA takes priority.NASA takes priority, but their priority is there must be 3 successful launches prior with ver 1.1. So the order of launches is pretty much cast in stone, and if Thaicom slips then so does CRS3. However I too have my doubts that the 30 days between launches is rigid, only desirable.
Btw, CRS-3 pacing item is the capsule. It might slip of their own yet.
If they do not listen to the sources, they will not be convinced even if Elon tweets the delay. Luke 16:31...
I would tend to use a Napoleon quote for the slip... It is a knock on effect from delays caused by CASSIOPE launch analysis and delays with the SES-8 campaign, and not an end of the quarter conspiracy.No spin is needed.