Author Topic: Chinese crewed lunar program  (Read 37148 times)

Offline Namechange User

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #20 on: 01/26/2011 07:00 pm »
Why should China be any different?

Based on the other information I have pointed to, what's wrong with assuming they are?  Especially given the huge differences in structure of our two societies?
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Offline Downix

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #21 on: 01/26/2011 07:03 pm »
One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base.  You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?

They have completed the rocket to launch their space station, and the announcement states that it will be launched later this year.

Sorry, but I just had to laugh out loud when I read that.

How many times have we seen plans for bases on the moon, studies where to place them and so forth from NASA over the past few decades? And what did we get for it?

IIRC, in 1969 NASA had plans for bases on the moon, Mars and even a manned mission to Titan by the turn of the millenium...

Why should China be any different?
You have never studied Chinese history.  They have not gone for some pie in the sky approach, needing 4 Sat V launches a year to support.  They've gone for a sustainable long-term approach.  You don't invest in such a broad architecture if you don't intend to use it.  It's not a case of "this looks good on paper" by any stretch.  They have hardware already under construction for many pieces.  This is the process of the Chinese.  And they do not start such things if they do not intend to complete it.
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Offline aquanaut99

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #22 on: 01/26/2011 07:05 pm »
Why would they want to replicate Apollo?  There are other, more cost-effective options for doing the same goals.  The Chinese seem to be aiming right at those options.

I never said the Chinese would re-create Apollo (I agree, they'd be pretty stupid if they did, and the Chinese are anything but stupid). I was merely addressing the point about Chinese spying giving them an advantage in this hypothetical "new moon race", pointing out that info on the only sucessful manned moon program is freely available and therefore there is no need for spying.

The Chinese will probably do things differently. Therefore they will have to figure it out for themselves, spying is no use. Unless they want to copy Constellation... not.

Incidentally, no need to spy for alternatives, either. They just have to read the posts on this forum...

Finally, I am not afraid if China does land on the moon. I wish them all the best and will gladly cheer them on. And if, by some miracle, they prove me wrong, I won't be unhappy either! For it would be a great day for humanity.
« Last Edit: 01/26/2011 07:22 pm by aquanaut99 »

Offline aquanaut99

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #23 on: 01/26/2011 07:11 pm »
You have never studied Chinese history.

Actually, I know quite a bit of Chinese history. Far more, I'll wager, than the average Westerner. I spent a good deal of my childhood in Asia, China included...

Quote
They have not gone for some pie in the sky approach, needing 4 Sat V launches a year to support.  They've gone for a sustainable long-term approach. 

There, you've just proved my point. Moon by 2020 is recreating Apollo, no other way to do it. Sustainable, long term, is the clever way to do it, but it won't get you to the moon by 2020. QED.

Incidentally, the Chinese are right to try this path and I have every confidence that they will be sucessful (unless they follow the US example and lose interest).

Again, I will gladly cheer them on, and I will pop the champagne bottle for them when the first Chinese citizen sets his or her foot on lunar soil somewhere around or after 2025.
« Last Edit: 01/26/2011 07:12 pm by aquanaut99 »

Offline Downix

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #24 on: 01/26/2011 07:11 pm »
Why should China be any different?

Based on the other information I have pointed to, what's wrong with assuming they are?  Especially given the huge differences in structure of our two societies?
From my viewpoint, the Chinese have studied both the US and Russian moon programs, and are doing every step to avoid the mis-steps.  We succeeded, but the cost was so great it could not be sustained.  The Russians fractured approach could have been sustained, but the super-large rocket was too expensive to develop fully.  They looked at launchers from around the world, other architectures.  And they learned from all of them.

Their current approach looks to be a modest one, by US standards in comparison to Saturn, but unlike Saturn, when completed, it will be sustainable.  Like the US program, they are doing dedicated steps to prove each piece of capability, as part of a larger project.  Like the EELV and Angara, they are focusing on commonality to keep the costs down.  Like the Russians, their focus is on minimalist approaches, less frills to get the job done. 

They are in line for a far longer reaching space program than the US or Russia seem capable of at this point.
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Offline Downix

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #25 on: 01/26/2011 07:13 pm »
You have never studied Chinese history.

Actually, I know quite a bit of Chinese history. Far more, I'll wager, than the average Westerner. I spent a good deal of my childhood in Asia, China included...

Quote
They have not gone for some pie in the sky approach, needing 4 Sat V launches a year to support.  They've gone for a sustainable long-term approach. 

There, you've just proved my point. Moon by 2020 is recreating Apollo, no other way to do it. Sustainable, long term, is the clever way to do it, but it won't get you to the moon by 2020. QED.

Incidentally, the Chinese are right to try this path and I have every confidence that they will be sucessful (unless they follow the US example and lose interest).

Again, I will gladly cheer them on, and I will pop the champagne bottle for them when the first Chinese citizen sets his or her foot on lunar soil somewhere around or after 2025.

What is to prevent them by 2020, on their current pace?  They'll have had a space station for over 9 years.  They'll have the lift capability.  They'll have both the landing and return capability.  By 2017, they will have every single piece needed for a manned landing, already demonstrated.
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Offline Namechange User

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #26 on: 01/26/2011 07:14 pm »
Why would they want to replicate Apollo?  There are other, more cost-effective options for doing the same goals.  The Chinese seem to be aiming right at those options.

I never said the Chinese would re-create Apollo (I agree, they'd be pretty stupid if they did, and the Chinese are anything but stupid). I was merely addressing the point about Chinese spying giving them an advantage in this hypothetical "new moon race", pointing out that info on the only sucessful manned moon program is freely available and therefore there is no need for spying.

The Chinese will probably do things differently. Therefore they will have to figure it out for themselves, spying is no use. Unless they want to copy Constellation... not.

Incidentally, no need to spy for alternatives, either. They just have to read the posts on this forum...

Finally, I am not afraid if China does land on the moon. I wish them all the best and will gladly cheer them on. And if, by some miracle, they me wrong, I won't be unhappy either! For it would be a great day for humanity.


So to sum it up:

Supposedly all Apollo designs, specs, processes, etc are freely available but Apollo sucks and the Chinese are much better than that.

Because they are much better than that, they'll do it differently. 

Because they'll do it differently, spying is no big deal.  The things they are trying to spy on have no direct potential use for military and/or space applications.

Because they are spying and clearly none of this has potential military and/or space applications, they only have our best interests at heart.

Because they only have our best interests at heart, you will cheer them on.

That is brilliant!
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Offline aquanaut99

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #27 on: 01/26/2011 07:20 pm »
What is to prevent them by 2020, on their current pace?  They'll have had a space station for over 9 years.  They'll have the lift capability.  They'll have both the landing and return capability.  By 2017, they will have every single piece needed for a manned landing, already demonstrated.

The answer is again given in the question. Their current pace being one manned launch every 2 or 3 years.

I highly suspect the launch rate will go up after the completion of the Hainan launch site (which will probably become the main launch site for manned programs). But that won't be until 2015. And the Chinese still have far too little experience. Compare the number of (US and Soviet) launches before the first landings were attempted.

Also, the Chinese are an inherently cautious people. While the Americans are more "gung-ho", if you pardon the cliche. They will not, IMO, attempt a manned lunar landing until they are absolutely sure they have the experience and know-how to get it done. And they are right, IMO. They are not in a race and have all the time in the world.

When you can look back on 5000 years of history and civilization, a few years more or less do not make a difference.
« Last Edit: 01/26/2011 07:25 pm by aquanaut99 »

Offline Downix

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #28 on: 01/26/2011 07:45 pm »
What is to prevent them by 2020, on their current pace?  They'll have had a space station for over 9 years.  They'll have the lift capability.  They'll have both the landing and return capability.  By 2017, they will have every single piece needed for a manned landing, already demonstrated.

The answer is again given in the question. Their current pace being one manned launch every 2 or 3 years.

I highly suspect the launch rate will go up after the completion of the Hainan launch site (which will probably become the main launch site for manned programs). But that won't be until 2015. And the Chinese still have far too little experience. Compare the number of (US and Soviet) launches before the first landings were attempted.

Also, the Chinese are an inherently cautious people. While the Americans are more "gung-ho", if you pardon the cliche. They will not, IMO, attempt a manned lunar landing until they are absolutely sure they have the experience and know-how to get it done. And they are right, IMO. They are not in a race and have all the time in the world.

When you can look back on 5000 years of history and civilization, a few years more or less do not make a difference.
They have two manned launches planned in the next 24 months.  If you ever noticed, their period between manned launches keeps getting shorter and shorter.  This is their Gemini program, although it began as their Mercury. 

You are right, they are not in a race.  But you are wrong in assuming that they will definitively not have the capability nor experience by 2020.

The Hainan Space Complex is almost complete, due to come online in either late 2012 or early 2013, just as they transition from the existing program to the next program. 
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Offline aquanaut99

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #29 on: 01/26/2011 08:18 pm »

They have two manned launches planned in the next 24 months.  If you ever noticed, their period between manned launches keeps getting shorter and shorter.  This is their Gemini program, although it began as their Mercury. 

I had the opposite impression: 2003 (SZ5), 2005 (SZ6), 2008 (SZ7), 2012 (SZ 9 and 10, SZ 8 is to be unmanned). But the sample is too small to make a meaningful statistic.

Quote
You are right, they are not in a race.  But you are wrong in assuming that they will definitively not have the capability nor experience by 2020.

The Hainan Space Complex is almost complete, due to come online in either late 2012 or early 2013, just as they transition from the existing program to the next program. 

CZ-5 won't launch before 2014 and will become operational even later. And delays will certainly strike elsewhere, also. The Chinese are not immune to them. Tiangong-1 and SZ 8 have already suffered several delays.

Again, if, by some miracle, the Chinese do manage to land on the moon before 2020, I will gladly admit I was wrong. I will be happy for them. And I can't understand why some people here see that as a threat.

The moon has no military value. If the Chinese want to militarize space, they don't need to go to the moon, nor develop a lunar program. In fact, they can do it (and probably are doing it) right now with the technology and know-how they have already. And they don't need taikonauts for that as MOL and Almaz proved 40+ years ago.

Offline hop

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #30 on: 01/26/2011 08:59 pm »
http://www.clep.org.cn/

One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base.  You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?
Sure you do. Look at how many paper studies NASA and RSA have done compared to what they have flown. Paper studies of what the space agency folks would like to do given unlimited budget should not be confused with funded programs. Statements from space agency officials of what they would like to do, or could do given the money should also not be confused with funded programs.

When it comes to China, Russia and India, much of the western press appears hell bent on conflating these things at every available opportunity. The article in the OP is a fine specimen of the type. Lots of big claims, very little sourced official material.

Could the Chinese land a man on the moon within the decade if they decided it was a national priority ? There is no reason to doubt that they could.

Has the government committed to funding such a venture ? There isn't any evidence they have, and some strong reasons to believe they have not.

As Liss said, what they have *actually* committed to doing is a Mir class space station. To date, their public statements about the direction of their manned program appear to have been accurate, give or take the inevitable schedule slips that affect space programs everywhere.
« Last Edit: 01/26/2011 09:00 pm by hop »

Offline Joris

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #31 on: 01/26/2011 09:08 pm »
http://www.clep.org.cn/

One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base.  You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?
Sure you do. Look at how many paper studies NASA and RSA have done compared to what they have flown. Paper studies of what the space agency folks would like to do given unlimited budget should not be confused with funded programs. Statements from space agency officials of what they would like to do, or could do given the money should also not be confused with funded programs.

When it comes to China, Russia and India, much of the western press appears hell bent on conflating these things at every available opportunity. The article in the OP is a fine specimen of the type. Lots of big claims, very little sourced official material.

Could the Chinese land a man on the moon within the decade if they decided it was a national priority ? There is no reason to doubt that they could.

Has the government committed to funding such a venture ? There isn't any evidence they have, and some strong reasons to believe they have not.

As Liss said, what they have *actually* committed to doing is a Mir class space station. To date, their public statements about the direction of their manned program appear to have been accurate, give or take the inevitable schedule slips that affect space programs everywhere.

Whilst in America a new president will most likely change direction and cancel big projects, in China they don't since their goverment doesn't change much over the years. Also China has a tendency to do things large-scale, I have no doubt that once they commit themself to a lunar landing in 2025-ish, they will create a permanent base shortly after.
JIMO would have been the first proper spaceship.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #32 on: 01/27/2011 03:36 am »
It is possible if they use a very light weight architecture similar to ELA.
http://www.nss.org/settlement/moon/ELA.html

Technically Japan or France also could land someone on the moon by 2020 if they put forth a serious effort to do so.

In some ways despite not having flown a manned spacecraft these two countries are much farther ahead technically speaking.
Ariane 5 and the H-IIB are already powerful enough to launch all or most elements of ELA.
Pretty much all they need is a lander and a crew vehicle both countries have tested all the major systems for one.

Personally I think the first to return to the moon will likely be a private US company as Dragon is already capable of a Mars reentry let alone a lunar reentry.
Other vehicles such as the CST-100 and Dream Chaser hint at being upgradable to BEO flight.
« Last Edit: 01/27/2011 03:42 am by Patchouli »

Offline go4mars

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #33 on: 01/27/2011 02:00 pm »
I'm not sure why people are so quick to downplay the Chinese and their potential goals and accomplishments in the coming decade.  ...usually leads to the "gotcha moment".  It's not like China is an open society.   Their military is building up, they are actively engaging in cyber warfare against US systems, they are keeping their currency deliberately de-valued in order to hurt our economy, they are "stealing" US products, etc.   

The recent unveiling of their "stealth" fighter should tell you something about this possibility.  It was not expected by US officials. 

 Instead, there is nothing wrong in this case with assumption and being prepared. 

http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/ur700m.htm

Zhang Guitian (Apparently a Chinese "acamedician") was talking at a conference in 2006 referring to Chinese PLANS to build something on the scale the UR-700M.

Since they are building the largest ice-breakers on earth, stocking up on submarines, already have more high-speed rail than any other country, they are building an aircraft carrier, have demonstrated satellite capabilities that they deny having, likely fired a missile from a sub off the california coast a few months ago, have been stockpiling all kinds of metals, uranium, and oil, have cut-off supply of Rare Earth Elements to the rest of the world, designing thorium nuclear reactors (partly to make Pu-238) etc., etc., etc.  it stands to reason that leaked information from 5 years ago about a Chinese 750 metric ton to orbit launcher is truly a possible scenario. 
« Last Edit: 01/31/2011 10:03 pm by go4mars »
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Offline Patchouli

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #34 on: 01/27/2011 05:50 pm »
I'm not sure why people are so quick to downplay the Chinese and their potential goals and accomplishments in the coming decade.  ...usually leads to the "gotcha moment".  It's not like China is an open society.   Their military is building up, they are actively engaging in cyber warfare against US systems, they are keeping their currency deliberately de-valued in order to hurt our economy, they are "stealing" US products, etc.   

The recent unveiling of their "stealth" fighter should tell you something about this possibility.  It was not expected by US officials. 

 Instead, there is nothing wrong in this case with assumption and being prepared. 

http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/ur700m.htm

Zhang Guitian (Apparently a Chinese "acamedician") was talking at a conference in 2006 referring to Chinese PLANS to build something on the scale the UR-700M.

Since they are building the largest ice-breakers on earth, stocking up on submarines, already have more high-speed rail than any other country, they are building an aircraft carrier, lots more subs, have demonstrated satellite capabilities that they deny having, likely fired a missile from a sub off the california coast a few months ago, have been stockpiling all kinds of metals, uranium, and oil, have cut-off supply of Rare Earth Elements to the rest of the world, etc., etc., etc.  it stands to reason that leaked information from 5 years ago about a Chinese 750 metric ton to orbit launcher is truly a possible scenario. 
I doubt it they have yet to launch an EELV class LV.

It would be Ares V all over again and their space program's budget is much smaller then NASA's.
Flying a smaller 25 to 100MT vehicle often would be much cheaper.
Plus the all Chinese moon plans I have seen make use of the 25T class Long March 5.

As for their little economic and political games I think it's going to bite them in the end.
Those manufacturing jobs can be easily moved the India or Mexico.
Plus their cheap labor is about to be rendered obsolete but advances in robotics and rapid prototyping.
The high energy costs already are making shipping so expensive the dirt cheap labor in China is no longer such a good deal.
You might save money paying $2 an hour having your product assembled in Mexico vs 50 cents in China and having to pay through the nose to get it shipped.
Shipping it from lets say Brazil or Mexico would take 1/8 to 1/4 the energy it takes to ship from China.
Domestic production would be the least of all.
« Last Edit: 01/27/2011 05:52 pm by Patchouli »

Offline nickyp

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #35 on: 01/27/2011 09:16 pm »
I find it rather funny that people are worried about China militarising space, when the USA had the X-37 above China's heads for three quarters of a year...

Offline Downix

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #36 on: 01/27/2011 09:30 pm »
I'm not sure why people are so quick to downplay the Chinese and their potential goals and accomplishments in the coming decade.  ...usually leads to the "gotcha moment".  It's not like China is an open society.   Their military is building up, they are actively engaging in cyber warfare against US systems, they are keeping their currency deliberately de-valued in order to hurt our economy, they are "stealing" US products, etc.   

The recent unveiling of their "stealth" fighter should tell you something about this possibility.  It was not expected by US officials. 

 Instead, there is nothing wrong in this case with assumption and being prepared. 

http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/ur700m.htm

Zhang Guitian (Apparently a Chinese "acamedician") was talking at a conference in 2006 referring to Chinese PLANS to build something on the scale the UR-700M.

Since they are building the largest ice-breakers on earth, stocking up on submarines, already have more high-speed rail than any other country, they are building an aircraft carrier, lots more subs, have demonstrated satellite capabilities that they deny having, likely fired a missile from a sub off the california coast a few months ago, have been stockpiling all kinds of metals, uranium, and oil, have cut-off supply of Rare Earth Elements to the rest of the world, etc., etc., etc.  it stands to reason that leaked information from 5 years ago about a Chinese 750 metric ton to orbit launcher is truly a possible scenario. 
I doubt it they have yet to launch an EELV class LV.

It would be Ares V all over again and their space program's budget is much smaller then NASA's.
Flying a smaller 25 to 100MT vehicle often would be much cheaper.
Plus the all Chinese moon plans I have seen make use of the 25T class Long March 5.

As for their little economic and political games I think it's going to bite them in the end.
Those manufacturing jobs can be easily moved the India or Mexico.
Plus their cheap labor is about to be rendered obsolete but advances in robotics and rapid prototyping.
The high energy costs already are making shipping so expensive the dirt cheap labor in China is no longer such a good deal.
You might save money paying $2 an hour having your product assembled in Mexico vs 50 cents in China and having to pay through the nose to get it shipped.
Shipping it from lets say Brazil or Mexico would take 1/8 to 1/4 the energy it takes to ship from China.
Domestic production would be the least of all.
Are you familiar with the UR-700?  it was to be multiple Protons, their 6 individual engines replaced with a single RD-270, strapped together.  In this situation, it would be 7 LM5's, strapped together.  You can see a similar design in the Super Delta IV Heavy thread in the Heavy lift section.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/ur700.html
chuck - Toilet paper has no real value? Try living with 5 other adults for 6 months in a can with no toilet paper. Man oh man. Toilet paper would be worth it's weight in gold!

Offline hop

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #37 on: 01/28/2011 03:26 am »
http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/ur700m.htm

Zhang Guitian (Apparently a Chinese "acamedician") was talking at a conference in 2006 referring to Chinese PLANS to build something on the scale the UR-700M.
Source ? Actual quote ? What kind of "plan" ? A sketch on the back of a napkin of what they would like to do, or something the politburo had committed billions of dollars to ?
Quote
it stands to reason that leaked information from 5 years ago about a Chinese 750 metric ton to orbit launcher is truly a possible scenario. 
Leaked ? There's no evidence Chinese are hiding any major LV projects. They appear to fairly open about actual LV developments and their manned plans, certainly more so than the Soviets ever were. See http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=18605.0 and http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8447.0 for things they are actually working on.

The idea that they are building a > Saturn V class rocket in a secret parallel program is absurd.

Offline go4mars

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #38 on: 01/28/2011 03:37 am »
Are you familiar with the UR-700?  it was to be multiple Protons, their 6 individual engines replaced with a single RD-270, strapped together.  In this situation, it would be 7 LM5's, strapped together.  You can see a similar design in the Super Delta IV Heavy thread in the Heavy lift section.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/ur700.html

So maybe they plan to strap a bunch of long-march 5's together or some related idea. 
Elasmotherium; hurlyburly Doggerlandic Jentilak steeds insouciantly gallop in viridescent taiga, eluding deluginal Burckle's abyssal excavation.

Offline Downix

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #39 on: 01/28/2011 03:52 am »
Are you familiar with the UR-700?  it was to be multiple Protons, their 6 individual engines replaced with a single RD-270, strapped together.  In this situation, it would be 7 LM5's, strapped together.  You can see a similar design in the Super Delta IV Heavy thread in the Heavy lift section.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/ur700.html

So maybe they plan to strap a bunch of long-march 5's together or some related idea. 
As I mentioned above, studying the Long March 5's first stage, it is more than capable of being clustered in the right manner.  In addition, they have already revealed two main engine configurations for it, a medium-high-thrust / moderate isp and a moderate thrust/high isp.  The discussions coming out mention a more powerful engine under development as well, with no mention of a rocket for it to go on.  I suspect the reason why is that there is no new rocket for it to go on.
chuck - Toilet paper has no real value? Try living with 5 other adults for 6 months in a can with no toilet paper. Man oh man. Toilet paper would be worth it's weight in gold!

 

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