Why should China be any different?
Quote from: Downix on 01/26/2011 05:54 pmOne of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base. You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?They have completed the rocket to launch their space station, and the announcement states that it will be launched later this year.Sorry, but I just had to laugh out loud when I read that.How many times have we seen plans for bases on the moon, studies where to place them and so forth from NASA over the past few decades? And what did we get for it? IIRC, in 1969 NASA had plans for bases on the moon, Mars and even a manned mission to Titan by the turn of the millenium...Why should China be any different?
One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base. You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?They have completed the rocket to launch their space station, and the announcement states that it will be launched later this year.
Why would they want to replicate Apollo? There are other, more cost-effective options for doing the same goals. The Chinese seem to be aiming right at those options.
You have never studied Chinese history.
They have not gone for some pie in the sky approach, needing 4 Sat V launches a year to support. They've gone for a sustainable long-term approach.
Quote from: aquanaut99 on 01/26/2011 06:57 pmWhy should China be any different?Based on the other information I have pointed to, what's wrong with assuming they are? Especially given the huge differences in structure of our two societies?
Quote from: Downix on 01/26/2011 07:03 pmYou have never studied Chinese history. Actually, I know quite a bit of Chinese history. Far more, I'll wager, than the average Westerner. I spent a good deal of my childhood in Asia, China included...QuoteThey have not gone for some pie in the sky approach, needing 4 Sat V launches a year to support. They've gone for a sustainable long-term approach. There, you've just proved my point. Moon by 2020 is recreating Apollo, no other way to do it. Sustainable, long term, is the clever way to do it, but it won't get you to the moon by 2020. QED.Incidentally, the Chinese are right to try this path and I have every confidence that they will be sucessful (unless they follow the US example and lose interest).Again, I will gladly cheer them on, and I will pop the champagne bottle for them when the first Chinese citizen sets his or her foot on lunar soil somewhere around or after 2025.
Quote from: Downix on 01/26/2011 06:41 pmWhy would they want to replicate Apollo? There are other, more cost-effective options for doing the same goals. The Chinese seem to be aiming right at those options.I never said the Chinese would re-create Apollo (I agree, they'd be pretty stupid if they did, and the Chinese are anything but stupid). I was merely addressing the point about Chinese spying giving them an advantage in this hypothetical "new moon race", pointing out that info on the only sucessful manned moon program is freely available and therefore there is no need for spying.The Chinese will probably do things differently. Therefore they will have to figure it out for themselves, spying is no use. Unless they want to copy Constellation... not.Incidentally, no need to spy for alternatives, either. They just have to read the posts on this forum...Finally, I am not afraid if China does land on the moon. I wish them all the best and will gladly cheer them on. And if, by some miracle, they me wrong, I won't be unhappy either! For it would be a great day for humanity.
What is to prevent them by 2020, on their current pace? They'll have had a space station for over 9 years. They'll have the lift capability. They'll have both the landing and return capability. By 2017, they will have every single piece needed for a manned landing, already demonstrated.
Quote from: Downix on 01/26/2011 07:13 pmWhat is to prevent them by 2020, on their current pace? They'll have had a space station for over 9 years. They'll have the lift capability. They'll have both the landing and return capability. By 2017, they will have every single piece needed for a manned landing, already demonstrated.The answer is again given in the question. Their current pace being one manned launch every 2 or 3 years.I highly suspect the launch rate will go up after the completion of the Hainan launch site (which will probably become the main launch site for manned programs). But that won't be until 2015. And the Chinese still have far too little experience. Compare the number of (US and Soviet) launches before the first landings were attempted.Also, the Chinese are an inherently cautious people. While the Americans are more "gung-ho", if you pardon the cliche. They will not, IMO, attempt a manned lunar landing until they are absolutely sure they have the experience and know-how to get it done. And they are right, IMO. They are not in a race and have all the time in the world. When you can look back on 5000 years of history and civilization, a few years more or less do not make a difference.
They have two manned launches planned in the next 24 months. If you ever noticed, their period between manned launches keeps getting shorter and shorter. This is their Gemini program, although it began as their Mercury.
You are right, they are not in a race. But you are wrong in assuming that they will definitively not have the capability nor experience by 2020.The Hainan Space Complex is almost complete, due to come online in either late 2012 or early 2013, just as they transition from the existing program to the next program.
http://www.clep.org.cn/One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base. You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?
Quote from: Downix on 01/26/2011 05:54 pmhttp://www.clep.org.cn/One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base. You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?Sure you do. Look at how many paper studies NASA and RSA have done compared to what they have flown. Paper studies of what the space agency folks would like to do given unlimited budget should not be confused with funded programs. Statements from space agency officials of what they would like to do, or could do given the money should also not be confused with funded programs.When it comes to China, Russia and India, much of the western press appears hell bent on conflating these things at every available opportunity. The article in the OP is a fine specimen of the type. Lots of big claims, very little sourced official material.Could the Chinese land a man on the moon within the decade if they decided it was a national priority ? There is no reason to doubt that they could.Has the government committed to funding such a venture ? There isn't any evidence they have, and some strong reasons to believe they have not.As Liss said, what they have *actually* committed to doing is a Mir class space station. To date, their public statements about the direction of their manned program appear to have been accurate, give or take the inevitable schedule slips that affect space programs everywhere.
I'm not sure why people are so quick to downplay the Chinese and their potential goals and accomplishments in the coming decade. ...usually leads to the "gotcha moment". It's not like China is an open society. Their military is building up, they are actively engaging in cyber warfare against US systems, they are keeping their currency deliberately de-valued in order to hurt our economy, they are "stealing" US products, etc. The recent unveiling of their "stealth" fighter should tell you something about this possibility. It was not expected by US officials. Instead, there is nothing wrong in this case with assumption and being prepared.
Quote from: OV-106 on 01/26/2011 04:08 pmI'm not sure why people are so quick to downplay the Chinese and their potential goals and accomplishments in the coming decade. ...usually leads to the "gotcha moment". It's not like China is an open society. Their military is building up, they are actively engaging in cyber warfare against US systems, they are keeping their currency deliberately de-valued in order to hurt our economy, they are "stealing" US products, etc. The recent unveiling of their "stealth" fighter should tell you something about this possibility. It was not expected by US officials. Instead, there is nothing wrong in this case with assumption and being prepared. http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/ur700m.htmZhang Guitian (Apparently a Chinese "acamedician") was talking at a conference in 2006 referring to Chinese PLANS to build something on the scale the UR-700M. Since they are building the largest ice-breakers on earth, stocking up on submarines, already have more high-speed rail than any other country, they are building an aircraft carrier, lots more subs, have demonstrated satellite capabilities that they deny having, likely fired a missile from a sub off the california coast a few months ago, have been stockpiling all kinds of metals, uranium, and oil, have cut-off supply of Rare Earth Elements to the rest of the world, etc., etc., etc. it stands to reason that leaked information from 5 years ago about a Chinese 750 metric ton to orbit launcher is truly a possible scenario.
Quote from: go4mars on 01/27/2011 02:00 pmQuote from: OV-106 on 01/26/2011 04:08 pmI'm not sure why people are so quick to downplay the Chinese and their potential goals and accomplishments in the coming decade. ...usually leads to the "gotcha moment". It's not like China is an open society. Their military is building up, they are actively engaging in cyber warfare against US systems, they are keeping their currency deliberately de-valued in order to hurt our economy, they are "stealing" US products, etc. The recent unveiling of their "stealth" fighter should tell you something about this possibility. It was not expected by US officials. Instead, there is nothing wrong in this case with assumption and being prepared. http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/ur700m.htmZhang Guitian (Apparently a Chinese "acamedician") was talking at a conference in 2006 referring to Chinese PLANS to build something on the scale the UR-700M. Since they are building the largest ice-breakers on earth, stocking up on submarines, already have more high-speed rail than any other country, they are building an aircraft carrier, lots more subs, have demonstrated satellite capabilities that they deny having, likely fired a missile from a sub off the california coast a few months ago, have been stockpiling all kinds of metals, uranium, and oil, have cut-off supply of Rare Earth Elements to the rest of the world, etc., etc., etc. it stands to reason that leaked information from 5 years ago about a Chinese 750 metric ton to orbit launcher is truly a possible scenario. I doubt it they have yet to launch an EELV class LV.It would be Ares V all over again and their space program's budget is much smaller then NASA's.Flying a smaller 25 to 100MT vehicle often would be much cheaper.Plus the all Chinese moon plans I have seen make use of the 25T class Long March 5.As for their little economic and political games I think it's going to bite them in the end.Those manufacturing jobs can be easily moved the India or Mexico.Plus their cheap labor is about to be rendered obsolete but advances in robotics and rapid prototyping.The high energy costs already are making shipping so expensive the dirt cheap labor in China is no longer such a good deal.You might save money paying $2 an hour having your product assembled in Mexico vs 50 cents in China and having to pay through the nose to get it shipped.Shipping it from lets say Brazil or Mexico would take 1/8 to 1/4 the energy it takes to ship from China.Domestic production would be the least of all.
http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/ur700m.htmZhang Guitian (Apparently a Chinese "acamedician") was talking at a conference in 2006 referring to Chinese PLANS to build something on the scale the UR-700M.
it stands to reason that leaked information from 5 years ago about a Chinese 750 metric ton to orbit launcher is truly a possible scenario.
Are you familiar with the UR-700? it was to be multiple Protons, their 6 individual engines replaced with a single RD-270, strapped together. In this situation, it would be 7 LM5's, strapped together. You can see a similar design in the Super Delta IV Heavy thread in the Heavy lift section.http://www.russianspaceweb.com/ur700.html
Quote from: Downix on 01/27/2011 09:30 pmAre you familiar with the UR-700? it was to be multiple Protons, their 6 individual engines replaced with a single RD-270, strapped together. In this situation, it would be 7 LM5's, strapped together. You can see a similar design in the Super Delta IV Heavy thread in the Heavy lift section.http://www.russianspaceweb.com/ur700.htmlSo maybe they plan to strap a bunch of long-march 5's together or some related idea.