SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[zubenelgenubi]

There appears to be an open launch slot in mid June at SLC-40.

June 8  Nilesat-301
<open slot>
June 28  SES-22

Starlink 4-19 is currently scheduled for launch from LC-39A, (probably) ASAP after SpX-25 in mid June.

Other Starlink launches are NET July.  Starlink 4-20 is now NET September, previously end of June.

ASAP = As Soon As Possible

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Mission 1575, NE trajectory from Florida, NET early June
0788-EX-ST-2022

It seems some people out there are thinking this is something like ZUMA?

[zubenelgenubi]

Will all July Falcon 9 launches be Starlink clusters, and nothing else?

I think so, 🤔 unless SARah 2 and 3 show up at Vandenberg in June for a July launch.  Every other payload is listed for August or later.

Starlink 4-21 and 4-22 from Florida, 3-1 and 3-2 from Vandenberg.

Seems a bit (SpaceX-y) sparse.

If a Galaxy pair ships 🚢 soon, maybe a 3rd Florida July launch?  (perhaps Q3 launch for Q4 in-service date)

Edit: I'm wrong; see below.  5 July Starlink launches scheduled.  + Starlink 4-25 from FL.

[Clavin]

Will all July Falcon 9 launches be Starlink clusters, and nothing else?

I think so, 🤔 unless SARah 2 and 3 show up at Vandenberg in June for a July launch.  Every other payload is listed for August or later.

Starlink 4-21 and 4-22 from Florida, 3-1 and 3-2 from Vandenberg.

Seems a bit (SpaceX-y) sparse.

If a Galaxy pair ships 🚢 soon, maybe a 3rd Florida July launch?  (perhaps Q3 launch for Q4 in-service date)

Isnt Starlink 4-25 scheduled for july? and given that they are targeting 6 launch per month cadence, i expect more launches to show up

[Mangala]

Will all July Falcon 9 launches be Starlink clusters, and nothing else?

I think so, 🤔 unless SARah 2 and 3 show up at Vandenberg in June for a July launch.  Every other payload is listed for August or later.

Starlink 4-21 and 4-22 from Florida, 3-1 and 3-2 from Vandenberg.

Seems a bit (SpaceX-y) sparse.

If a Galaxy pair ships 🚢 soon, maybe a 3rd Florida July launch?  (perhaps Q3 launch for Q4 in-service date)

I'm not sure that this can explain a certain lack of launches from Florida in the Launch Manifest for July, but is it not usual that the range is closed for a few weeks each year, in summer, for maintenance?

[zubenelgenubi]

Will all July Falcon 9 launches be Starlink clusters, and nothing else?

I think so, 🤔 unless SARah 2 and 3 show up at Vandenberg in June for a July launch.  Every other payload is listed for August or later.

Starlink 4-21 and 4-22 from Florida, 3-1 and 3-2 from Vandenberg.

Seems a bit (SpaceX-y) sparse.

If a Galaxy pair ships 🚢 soon, maybe a 3rd Florida July launch?  (perhaps Q3 launch for Q4 in-service date)

Isnt Starlink 4-25 scheduled for july? and given that they are targeting 6 launch per month cadence, i expect more launches to show up

Re: Starlink 4-25: You are correct!  My mistake.  5 Starlink missions; 3 from Florida, 2 from Vandenberg.

[gongora]

Saw this FCC filing (SES-MOD-20220614-00645) for communication with Varuna spacecraft (0279-EX-CN-2022), which turns out to be the Sherpa-LTC that's scheduled to fly on a Starlink rideshare.  It's a V-band tech demo for Boeing, built by Astro Digital, with the Sherpa serving as the body of the satellite.  It will climb to the ~1050km, 54 degree orbit approved for the Boeing V-band constellation and be used for testing and demos.  The ODAR filed in March gave an August launch date and deployment at 280km, don't know if that is still the current plan.

[wannamoonbase]

With CRS-25 slipping to July 12, it appears there is a LC39A launch window open in late June early July.  Is there a Starlink to slip in there?

[Alexphysics]

With CRS-25 slipping to July 12, it appears there is a LC39A launch window open in late June early July.  Is there a Starlink to slip in there?

Yes, Starlink 4-21 will take that slot

And no, it's not a guess, I have confirmation of this and in fact I was the one who changed it on next spaceflight.

[Clavin]

Given that Starlink 4-21 has been delayed to July 07. I think we are looking at  7 launches  in July with 6 launches in a month being the highest so far.
launches are Starlink 4-21, Starlink 3-1(VAB) ,CRS-25, Starlink 4-22, Starlink 4-25 , Starlink 3-2 (VAB) and mission 1066-EX-ST-2022  (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=116424&RequestTimeout=1000). Comparing this to  https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/ leads me to believe that 1066-EX-ST-2022 is oneweb and will indeed launch in July. PLEASE CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG I AM JUST AN AMATUAR
The main contributing factor in achieving 7 launches (F & FH) a month would be Multiple launches from VAB.

[crandles57]

Given that Starlink 4-21 has been delayed to July 07. I think we are looking at  7 launches  in July with 6 launches in a month being the highest so far.

Those 7 launches may have NET July dates as far as we know at this stage. This doesn't mean there will be 7 launches in July. It may not be completely impossible but I am thinking it is unlikely. Minimum pad turnarounds were posted recently as 40 8 days 39A 9 days and VSFB 22 days.

So VSFB could do 2: 8th and ~30th but not a lot of room for slippage there.
Pad 40: 7th ~15th ~23rd has a few more spare days until 31st but 2 record low turnarounds in a row is unlikely. Eg ASDS crews may be willing to cut number of days off for one quick turnaround if they get a longer break afterward...
39A: well not sure when CRS-25 will be ready. Trip to ISS involves longer period of operation. It is not impossible for CRS-25 to be delayed to something like 20th July and be the only launch from 39A in July.

More likely to get in 7 in a month if the first launch (or 2 or 3) is in the first few days of the month rather than none until the 7th. No ISS trips following Hydrazine leak might also help.

FCC STA earliest date are clearly NET dates and are unlikely to hold this month: 4-22 start date of 10th July and 4-25 14th July are very unlikely due to pad/ASDS not being available. That could easily also be the case for 1066-EX-ST-2022 unless one of the Starlink launches is postponed until after that launch. 

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-posts; this frees up LC-39A for other launches this year:

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1540394908720177152

NASA confirms Psyche will not launch in 2022.

From the teleconference: There will be a nice opportunity to launch in July 2023 and September 2023.

[DanClemmensen]

Cross-posts; this frees up LC-39A for other launches this year:

NASA confirms Psyche will not launch in 2022.

From the teleconference: There will be a nice opportunity to launch in July 2023 and September 2023.

Arrrgh! Falcon Heavy is cursed!

It seems that all of the FH payloads slip. Is this simply an attribute of heavy payloads in general?

[gongora]

Almost everything has been slipping the last couple years.

[BrianNH]

The chart lists the weight of a Starlink batch at ~14mT, but Musk recently said that the newer ones weigh 16.25mT.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1505058886130311169

[Clavin]

16.25 Metric tones is the size of the Payload. We dont know whether that includes the payload adaptor ,Deployment rods etc.
IMO it probably does include those components, as that mass is orbital at the point of Deployment.

Also probably not the correct thread for this topic.

[gongora]

Also probably not the correct thread for this topic.

It's a correction to the manifest table, it belongs in this thread.  (I had marked the March flight at 16t but never corrected the rest of them.)

[zubenelgenubi]

August Falcon 9 launches

2nd, SLC-40: Danuri a.k.a. KPLO
Early?, SLC-4E: Starlink 3-2 July 21!
Early Late?, SLC-4E: Starlink 3-3
TBD, SLC-40: O3b mPower 1 & 2
9th, SLC-40: Starlink 4-26
Mid, Florida: Starlink 4-27
Mid?, SLC-4E: Starlink 3-4
Mid, Florida: Starlink 4-23
Late, Florida: Starlink 4-20

If BlueWalker 3 is a rideshare aboard Starlink 4-2, that launch is delayed to mid September.

Edited

[ZachF]

SpaceX must be getting pretty close to ULA’s 151 consecutive launch record.

[scr00chy]

SpaceX must be getting pretty close to ULA’s 151 consecutive launch record.

Yes. SpaceX is at 138 right now.