Author Topic: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2  (Read 1118422 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2880 on: 04/15/2021 11:51 pm »
twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1382748455341322242

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I surveyed over 50 users of SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet over the past few months, to get their impressions of the service so far.

Here's what they said about pricing, installation, speed, reliability and more:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1382839546484641794

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This is accurate. Service uptime, bandwidth & latency are improving rapidly. Probably out of beta this summer.

twitter.com/erdayastronaut/status/1382840587762688002

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Will users always be locked into one location or in the future if a user has the standard Dishy McFlatface (not a new portable one), could you say put it on an RV or tiny home? Or maybe take one you have in Iowa and put it in a studio in Texas 🤔

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1382842277719003136

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Yeah, should be fully mobile later this year, so you can move it anywhere or use it on an RV or truck in motion. We need a few more satellite launches to achieve compete coverage & some key software upgrades.

Offline archae86

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2881 on: 04/16/2021 01:31 am »
Based on 1500 satellites, $400k/sat construction cost, $500k/sat launch cost, 15% of the global surface area being revenue earning at any given time, 100mb target bandwidth per user, 20gb capacity per satellite, a 5x over subscription ratio and a net dish cost to SpaceX of $1000, that generates an annual revenue for SpaceX of $540m, from 450k subscribers, and a gross profit of around $180m.

Those are based on VERY conservative numbers, by the way. Increase the satellite bandwidth capacity, decrease the dish cost, or halve the construction and/or launch cost per satellite and the profits skyrocket.

This can be easily extrapolated for 4000, 12000 or any number of satellites. I went further to include a whopping 20% annual overheads cost on top of the above, and profits were STILL very impressive (sitting at 20% net profit, despite ludicrously overstated cost assumptions).

This is a VERY healthy business model.
Maybe I missed it, but I don't see, other than the 20% "overhead" any allocation of cost to actually interacting with customers.

That pesky matter of customer service which has many of us so unhappy with Comcast, AT&T and the rest, is actually enormously expensive.  Elon gets this, to the extent that he has mentioned how crucially important it is that most of the user terminals never get a visit from a SpaceX tech.  I'm not sure he has figured out how important it is that most customers never try to contact SpaceX AT ALL.  That depends not just on the product, but on the customers, who can be a pesky bunch.

I greatly hope for the success of StarLink.  I think Elon's "everybody else trying this has gone bankrupt" lowball is closer to a good outcomes forecast than is the rosy scenario.

Offline freddo411

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2882 on: 04/16/2021 02:14 am »
Based on 1500 satellites, $400k/sat construction cost, $500k/sat launch cost, 15% of the global surface area being revenue earning at any given time, 100mb target bandwidth per user, 20gb capacity per satellite, a 5x over subscription ratio and a net dish cost to SpaceX of $1000, that generates an annual revenue for SpaceX of $540m, from 450k subscribers, and a gross profit of around $180m.

Those are based on VERY conservative numbers, by the way. Increase the satellite bandwidth capacity, decrease the dish cost, or halve the construction and/or launch cost per satellite and the profits skyrocket.

This can be easily extrapolated for 4000, 12000 or any number of satellites. I went further to include a whopping 20% annual overheads cost on top of the above, and profits were STILL very impressive (sitting at 20% net profit, despite ludicrously overstated cost assumptions).

This is a VERY healthy business model.
Maybe I missed it, but I don't see, other than the 20% "overhead" any allocation of cost to actually interacting with customers.

That pesky matter of customer service which has many of us so unhappy with Comcast, AT&T and the rest, is actually enormously expensive.  Elon gets this, to the extent that he has mentioned how crucially important it is that most of the user terminals never get a visit from a SpaceX tech.  I'm not sure he has figured out how important it is that most customers never try to contact SpaceX AT ALL.  That depends not just on the product, but on the customers, who can be a pesky bunch.

I greatly hope for the success of StarLink.  I think Elon's "everybody else trying this has gone bankrupt" lowball is closer to a good outcomes forecast than is the rosy scenario.

Good points, however...

How many times do iPhone users ,on average,  talk to a live apple employee ?

It is possible to build highly reliable HW and SW .. apple and cell providers do it. 

Let’s agree that Comcast sucks at a lot of things for a lot of reasons.  Such a low bar, it will be easy to do better

Offline joek

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2883 on: 04/16/2021 04:37 am »
Maybe I missed it, but I don't see, other than the 20% "overhead" any allocation of cost to actually interacting with customers.
...

Level of customer interaction for support (as in live people) also depends on how much of the stack the provider controls, and the level of automation for identifying-correcting problems, preferably preemptively.  One of my major gripes with Comcast is that they seem to depend on customers reporting problems.  If enough people complain, they declare an outage, and if I have their app on my phone, I can go check (typically delayed).  Or if it's just me, I end up on the phone with a customer service (CS) rep.

I hope and expect Starlink is ahead of this.  They control the user terminal.  They control the sats.  They control the ground station interface from sats to Internet backbone.  Yes, Comcast et. al. have nominal control over their infrastructure, but they don't seem to do a very good job of communicating with their customers in an effective or timely manner.  E.g., would love to see communication from Comcast that "we have noticed a significant reduction in performance at your location, please take the following steps ..."

In short, timely and effective communication with customers would go a long way to reducing human CS interactions and costs.  Given Musk's traditional MO, hope and expect that, and the automation to back it, is baked into Starlink.

Offline rsdavis9

Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2884 on: 04/16/2021 01:06 pm »
Maybe I missed it, but I don't see, other than the 20% "overhead" any allocation of cost to actually interacting with customers.
...

Level of customer interaction for support (as in live people) also depends on how much of the stack the provider controls, and the level of automation for identifying-correcting problems, preferably preemptively.  One of my major gripes with Comcast is that they seem to depend on customers reporting problems.  If enough people complain, they declare an outage, and if I have their app on my phone, I can go check (typically delayed).  Or if it's just me, I end up on the phone with a customer service (CS) rep.

I hope and expect Starlink is ahead of this.  They control the user terminal.  They control the sats.  They control the ground station interface from sats to Internet backbone.  Yes, Comcast et. al. have nominal control over their infrastructure, but they don't seem to do a very good job of communicating with their customers in an effective or timely manner.  E.g., would love to see communication from Comcast that "we have noticed a significant reduction in performance at your location, please take the following steps ..."

In short, timely and effective communication with customers would go a long way to reducing human CS interactions and costs.  Given Musk's traditional MO, hope and expect that, and the automation to back it, is baked into Starlink.

A little story of customer interaction with another musk company.

I have tesla solar panels.
I noticed the app wasn't updating with solar and consumption.
I used the app to say it wasn't updating. Solar panels were generating power according to the inverter so it was an app/backend problem.
A few days(or less) later I received a feedback that they were testing software upgrade and expect there to be times when it didn't so data.

So had they sent out the notification earlier they would have never gotten a service report.
Overall the customer interaction with tesla solar is pretty good.
So they do have a lot of customer interaction experience at tesla.
Not the same company but...
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Offline gongora

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2885 on: 04/18/2021 03:10 am »
[Space News] SpaceX adds to latest funding round
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Shotwell said the company has already tested two generations of that technology on some of its satellites. “The first ones that we flew were very expensive. The second round of technology that we flew was less expensive,” she said.

A third generation of laser intersatellite links will start flying “in the next few months,” she said. She didn’t elaborate on those plans, but it’s likely those will be included on satellite the company is preparing to launch to polar orbits. The new technology, she said, will be able to operate over longer distances and provide high bandwidth, while being “much less expensive” than earlier versions.

Offline eeergo

Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2886 on: 04/20/2021 10:43 am »
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This is accurate. Service uptime, bandwidth & latency are improving rapidly. Probably out of beta this summer.

April 6th: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/spacexs-shotwell-no-plan-for-tiered-starlink-internet-pricing.html

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Shotwell noted that SpaceX does not “have a timeframe for getting out of the beta phase,” saying that the company still has “a lot of work to do to make the network reliable.”

What gives?
-DaviD-

Offline gongora

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2887 on: 04/20/2021 06:03 pm »
What gives?

Those statements aren't really mutually exclusive.  Gwynne declined to give a date on when that phase will end, and Elon gave a timeframe when he hoped it would end.

Offline snotis

Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2888 on: 04/20/2021 11:59 pm »
From recent FCC document about recent SpaceX and OneWeb collision mitigation:

https://licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/download.do?attachment_key=6212177

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SpaceX presented the attached fact sheet with an accurate chronology of events that demonstrates the coordination was successful and there was never a risk of a collision.
Despite recent reports to the contrary, the parties made clear that there was no "close call" or "near miss." SpaceX and OneWeb agreed that they had conducted a successful coordination, resulting in a positive outcome. The probability of collision never exceeded the threshold for a maneuver, and the satellites would not have collided even if no maneuver had been conducted. As further detailed in the attached fact sheet, and despite OneWeb's previous public claims, SpaceX's autonomous collision avoidance system was and remains fully functional at all times. SpaceX only turned off the capability at OneWeb's explicit request after OneWeb decided to conduct a maneuver.

 .

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OneWeb 's misleading public statements coincide with OneWeb's intensified efforts to prevent SpaceX from completing a safety upgrade to its system. For instance, immediately after the first inaccurate quotes came out in media accounts, OneWeb met with Commission staff and Commissioners demanding unilateral conditions placed on SpaceX’s operations. Ironically, the conditions demanded by OneWeb would make it more difficult to successfully coordinate operations going forward, demonstrating more of a concern with limiting competitors than with a genuine concern for space safety.

 .

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• the maneuver threshold for Starlink satellites is 1e-5 and that maneuvers occur approximately 12 hours before the predicted closest approach of the satellites
• if a maneuver was needed, typically a single in-track burn would be conducted to reduce collision probability.
• OneWeb acknowledged that the covariance (i.e., accuracy) in its propagated ephemerides (i.e., predicted location of satellites) are biased low and this bias is a known issue.

 .

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• SpaceX reiterated its recommendation to wait for another CDM from 18 SPCS before planning a maneuver because SpaceX systems indicated this was the least risky approach.
• OneWeb satellites need more time to coordinate and plan their maneuvers than Starlink satellites require, so OneWeb did not want to wait and chose instead to maneuver OneWeb-0178.
• Because OneWeb decided to plan a maneuver, it asked SpaceX to turn off Starlink-1546’s autonomous conjunction avoidance system. SpaceX obliged this request and confirmed to OneWeb
that the system had been turned off.

 .

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• 18 SPCS reported actual miss distance as 1,120 m.
• LeoLabs reported actual miss distance as 1,072 m.
• Both 18 SPCS and LeoLabs reported final Pc below 1e-20—one in one hundred million million million—this was not a close call or a near miss

Offline OTV Booster

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2889 on: 04/21/2021 03:09 pm »
...people are thinking regionally 10s of millions of subscribers and not in 10s of billions of subscribers equaling trillions in revue.

I think Starlink has enormous potential, but there aren't 10s of billions of people in the world.
The potential customer base is huge, but not that huge...

The number of potential Starlink installations (i.e. customers) isn't related to a number of people. 
It's related to a number of structures (including commercial buildings, residences, and utility structures like towers) and a number of vehicles large enough to mount a Starlink terminal on (planes, ships, UPS delivery vans, and so on.)

I have no idea what those numbers are; Internet searches revealed that there are apparently 1.2 billion homes world-wide and that UPS and FEDEX appear to have about 280,000 large vehicles (delivery trucks and tractors) between them.
For FedEx and UPS, StarLink probably isn't a good solution. Trucking started using sat links a long time ago but as cell coverage spread the service moved to it. Starlink shines where the last mile infrastructure sucks. There's plenty of business to be had there.
Seems like this could be relevant for long haul truckers though. I’m sure satellite coverage is better than cell coverage in some areas on these longer trips.
From personal experience, ~1.5M mi. OTR. Modern in-truck comms are quite good. It's a rare shutdown place that doesn't have adequate cell coverage, and interstates are well covered. There are places where coverage is poor but if you're moving you get over it.


Trucking is not a market to be ruled out but it's not the low hanging fruit.
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Offline vsatman

Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2890 on: 04/21/2021 07:33 pm »
15% of the global surface area being revenue earning at any given time,
, 20gb capacity per satellite,
Sorry . how many user you mean  under //15% of the global surface area??

and "20gbit  capacity per satellite"  I know this words from first file from 2016 for FCC,
calculation for it is follow: 2000 MHz in 2 polarisation  and max 64QAm  mean 6 bit/Hz  = 4000 MHz x 6 bit = 24 Gbit
but what I see now is
2000 MHz  in only one polarisation (UT can work only in right hand) and SNR  = 9 dB (or 8PSK)  or 3 bit/Hz
2000 MHz x 3 bit = 6 Gbit...

Offline Kiwi53

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2891 on: 04/21/2021 10:23 pm »
Trucking is not a market to be ruled out but it's not the low hanging fruit.
Shipping - passenger, freight and military - on the other hand is very low-hanging fruit

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2892 on: 04/26/2021 12:43 pm »
Someone has gone to the trouble of making a map of Starlink ground stations:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1H1x8jZs8vfjy60TvKgpbYs_grargieVw&ll=18.50343341913415%2C-61.40922437031843&z=5

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Map of SpaceX Starlink gateways. Gateways are used to connect orbiting satellites to the core Starlink network/Internet. The circles show where a Starlink satellite at 550 km can connect to a gateway. Coverage provided by a satellite can extend beyond the connected gateway service area. All US gateways filed with the FCC are on the map. In other countries most likely not all gateways are shown.

« Last Edit: 04/26/2021 12:44 pm by MikeAtkinson »

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2893 on: 04/26/2021 12:47 pm »
Someone has gone to the trouble of making a map of Starlink ground stations:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1H1x8jZs8vfjy60TvKgpbYs_grargieVw&ll=18.50343341913415%2C-61.40922437031843&z=5

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Map of SpaceX Starlink gateways. Gateways are used to connect orbiting satellites to the core Starlink network/Internet. The circles show where a Starlink satellite at 550 km can connect to a gateway. Coverage provided by a satellite can extend beyond the connected gateway service area. All US gateways filed with the FCC are on the map. In other countries most likely not all gateways are shown.

Offline gongora

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2894 on: 04/26/2021 01:38 pm »
That map is linked in the Starlink index thread at the beginning of the gateway list if you ever lose track of it.  It was made by u/softwaresaur

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2895 on: 04/26/2021 03:46 pm »
Anything on the international gateways?
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2896 on: 04/27/2021 02:44 pm »
https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1387054591246745602

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The FCC has approved SpaceX's request to fly a chunk of Starlink satellites at altitudes lower than initially planned, Bloomberg reports, an upset for satellite rivals who long argued the modification would ramp up collision risks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-27/elon-musk-s-spacex-wins-approval-for-lower-orbits-amazon-fought

Edit to add:

https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1387057422548746244

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SpaceX wins FCC approval to operate 2,814 Starlink satellites in lower orbits than originally planned. The FCC concluded "that this modification does not create significant interference problems" and allows SpaceX to make safety-focused changes to its constellation deployment.
« Last Edit: 04/27/2021 02:55 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2897 on: 04/27/2021 05:52 pm »
https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1387099970705166337

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Amazon statement on the FCC approving SpaceX's Starlink modification:

"This is a positive outcome that places clear conditions on SpaceX ... These conditions address our primary concerns regarding space safety and interference."
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/04/27/fcc-approves-spacex-starlink-modification-despite-objections.html $AMZN

Offline woods170

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2898 on: 04/27/2021 06:09 pm »
https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1387099970705166337

Quote
Amazon statement on the FCC approving SpaceX's Starlink modification:

"This is a positive outcome that places clear conditions on SpaceX ... These conditions address our primary concerns regarding space safety and interference."
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/04/27/fcc-approves-spacex-starlink-modification-despite-objections.html $AMZN

Right... Bezos' PR machine trying to spin yet another loss into a win.

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 2
« Reply #2899 on: 04/27/2021 06:40 pm »
https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1387099970705166337

Quote
Amazon statement on the FCC approving SpaceX's Starlink modification:

"This is a positive outcome that places clear conditions on SpaceX ... These conditions address our primary concerns regarding space safety and interference."
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/04/27/fcc-approves-spacex-starlink-modification-despite-objections.html $AMZN

Right... Bezos' PR machine trying to spin yet another loss into a win.

Someone needs to play nice with the FCC.
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