Author Topic: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - summer 2023  (Read 20606 times)

Offline gongora

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #40 on: 10/03/2018 02:50 pm »
I don't think Viasat-3 is 8000kg, and I bet Viasat is looking for better than GTO-1800.

Offline Aurora

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #41 on: 10/09/2018 02:34 pm »
FH was considered for performance, however FH has had only one launch - a demo mission without an insured payload.    If the next two FH missions (STP-2 and ARABSAT) would have been successfully completed prior to the decision for ViaSat 3, then the decision for ULA Atlas V may have been different.

Offline Aurora

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #42 on: 10/09/2018 02:41 pm »
I don't think Viasat-3 is 8000kg, and I bet Viasat is looking for better than GTO-1800.


ViaSat-3 is 6300-6400 kg estimated mass range (to remain launch compatibility with Ariane 5 UB and Falcon 9), with electric propulsion for orbit raising and station keeping.    The key decision of Atlas V-551 was the lift performance (lower deltaV) resulting in shorter time to orbit and, of course the reliability.   Falcon 9 and Ariane 5 UB would have required five to six months orbit raising, while Atlas V-551 should reduce that time period by 50%.

Offline Aurora

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #43 on: 10/09/2018 02:52 pm »
My speculation, based on commercial launch industry experience:

Price competition:  ULA was competing against Arianespace with a dedicated Ariane 5.   Atlas V-551 is competitive against Ariane 5 dedicated mission (to match mission injection requirements).     

Again, SpaceX F9 did not meet injection performance requirements, and FH did not have the minimum flight heritage at time of decision.   

Other new potential launch vehicles such as MHI III, Northrop Grumman OmegA, Blue Origin New Glenn and Arianespace Ariane 64/62 have zero flight heritage at time of decision.

Offline ethan829

Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #44 on: 10/09/2018 08:34 pm »
FH was considered for performance, however FH has had only one launch - a demo mission without an insured payload.    If the next two FH missions (STP-2 and ARABSAT) would have been successfully completed prior to the decision for ViaSat 3, then the decision for ULA Atlas V may have been different.


ViaSat bought a Falcon Heavy launch before it had flown:
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/viasat-selects-spacex-to-launch-viasat-2-satellite-2015-01-12

Offline Aurora

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #45 on: 10/09/2018 09:11 pm »
Ethan829 - agree completely on your statement.

At that time, SpaceX was to execute many launches prior to that mission . . . and when that didn't happen, ViaSat switched their mission to Ariane 5 (at great expense).

Technically, ViaSat probably still has a launch contract with some deposit for a Falcon Heavy, and hope to use in the future after two or three successful (and insured - public evaluation of success) mission.

Offline envy887

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #46 on: 10/10/2018 12:31 am »
Ethan829 - agree completely on your statement.

At that time, SpaceX was to execute many launches prior to that mission . . . and when that didn't happen, ViaSat switched their mission to Ariane 5 (at great expense).

Technically, ViaSat probably still has a launch contract with some deposit for a Falcon Heavy, and hope to use in the future after two or three successful (and insured - public evaluation of success) mission.

The USAF certified Falcon Heavy for NSS flights, after reviewing data from the demo flight. Insurers for FH flights undoubtedly also have reviewed that data, as well as NASA, and other major customers.

I rather doubt that any additional flights will result in a more "public" review of confidential mission data. However, they will allow a better statistical analysis of the data, as well as confirm the reliability of the Block 5 upgrades to FH.

Why does Viasat have such a low tolerance for risk, relative to NASA, USAF, and virtually every other commercial and governmental customer? Do they not purchase insurance? The ~$50 million difference from AV551 to FHR would pay for a lot of insurance.
« Last Edit: 10/10/2018 12:33 am by envy887 »

Offline Chasm

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #47 on: 10/10/2018 12:44 pm »
Looks to me like ViaSat needs the capacity ASAP. Satellite on orbit, earning money.

Launch insurance does not really help in that case.
(Does not really matter if they need the capacity or money.)

Offline Aurora

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #48 on: 10/10/2018 01:43 pm »
Chasm,

Agree.

Insurance monies replaces capex expenditures . . . however a replacement satellite will take three years to build and launch.   ViaSat will generate more than $50M in profits on the satellite over those three years . . . and earn nothing if the satellite is destroyed on an unproven launch vehicle.

If ViaSat was to lose those three years of capacity, their primary satellite competitor HughesNet (also known as Spaceway) will capture customers during that period.  Once someone installs a satellite dish, most are reluctant to install a second dish to switch.

Offline envy887

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #49 on: 10/10/2018 03:22 pm »
Chasm,

Agree.

Insurance monies replaces capex expenditures . . . however a replacement satellite will take three years to build and launch.   ViaSat will generate more than $50M in profits on the satellite over those three years . . . and earn nothing if the satellite is destroyed on an unproven launch vehicle.

If ViaSat was to lose those three years of capacity, their primary satellite competitor HughesNet (also known as Spaceway) will capture customers during that period.  Once someone installs a satellite dish, most are reluctant to install a second dish to switch.

They can also insure operating revenues, in fact this is fairly typical. Since launch failures are infrequent, the cost of the insurance is much lower than the actual revenues.

The market share, of course, they can't insure, and it is much more difficult to that win back than to replace a satellite.

Offline envy887

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #50 on: 10/25/2018 01:24 pm »
My speculation, based on commercial launch industry experience:

Price competition:  ULA was competing against Arianespace with a dedicated Ariane 5.   Atlas V-551 is competitive against Ariane 5 dedicated mission (to match mission injection requirements).     

Again, SpaceX F9 did not meet injection performance requirements, and FH did not have the minimum flight heritage at time of decision.   

Other new potential launch vehicles such as MHI III, Northrop Grumman OmegA, Blue Origin New Glenn and Arianespace Ariane 64/62 have zero flight heritage at time of decision.

Viasat just announced a Viasat-3 on FH with near-direct injection. FH doesn't have any more flight heritage recently, so they were probably mainly spreading the launches around between FH and AV551 to put their eggs in different baskets.

I wonder if the third one will go on Ariane 5 ES, since ECA can't do direct injection.

Online Zed_Noir

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #51 on: 10/25/2018 01:36 pm »
....

Viasat just announced a Viasat-3 on FH with near-direct injection. FH doesn't have any more flight heritage recently, so they were probably mainly spreading the launches around between FH and AV551 to put their eggs in different baskets.

I wonder if the third one will go on Ariane 5 ES, since ECA can't do direct injection.

Nope. The Ariane 5 ES is retired.

Offline Chasm

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #52 on: 10/25/2018 07:09 pm »
Ariane 64 would be the ticket. The user manual (revision1) has the (preliminary) direct to to GSO performance as 5000kg.
First A62 launches are in 2020, first A64 launches in 2021. A more complex mission probably a bit later, say as 5th launch at the end of 2021 or in 2022. Not too bad, the FH launch just announced is for a 2020-2022 time frame.

AV551 performance to GSO is 3856kg according to rocketbuilder.



Edit: Performance is in kg. =)
« Last Edit: 10/25/2018 07:10 pm by Chasm »

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - 2022
« Reply #53 on: 12/17/2021 08:11 pm »
Delayed NET early 2021, NLT H2 2022:
https://spacenews.com/viasat-orders-asia-pacific-viasat-3-from-boeing-amid-record-revenue/
Quote
In a Feb. 7 earnings call, Dankberg said the launch of the first ViaSat-3 satellite, expected to cover the Americas, will likely slip a few months to early 2021.
...
Carlsbad, California-based Viasat has three launch contracts for ViaSat-3 — one with Arianespace for an Ariane 5, one with United Launch Alliance for an Atlas 5, and one with SpaceX for a Falcon Heavy — but has not said which will launch first. Viasat is expected to launch the first ViaSat-3 to cover the Americas, followed be the second ViaSat-3 for Europe, the Middle East and Africa six months later. Dankberg said the third ViaSat-3, designated for the Asia Pacific, is expected to launch in the second half of 2022.
[dated Feb 8, 2019]

NET 2021 launch:
https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/06/30/barring-a-surprise-spacexs-next-falcon-heavy-flight-is-planned-in-late-2020/
Quote
Viasat has booked firm launch contracts with SpaceX, United Launch Alliance and Arianespace to carry one ViaSat 3 satellite at a time toward their operating positions in geostationary orbit beginning in 2021. But the California-based broadband company has not announced the order of the ViaSat 3 launches, or which rocket will launch each satellite.

Launch delayed to mid-2021.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1226906375315501090
Quote
Viasat shows continued rev, EBITDA growth on flat US consumer subscriber base, outlines diverse demand profiles in Americas, EMEA, Asia-Pac in preparation for global Viasat-3 play. 1st Viasat-3 launch mid-2021. [dated Feb 10, 2020]

Launch delayed to H1 2022:
https://spacenews.com/baldridge-replaces-dankberg-as-ceo-as-viasat-prepares-to-launch-viasat-3-americas/
Quote
Demand for residential broadband and government connectivity grew during the quarter, and should continue to climb once the first ViaSat-3 satellite, designed to beam a terabit or more of capacity over North and South America, is in orbit, he said.
...
That satellite should still launch by the end of 2021, he said, but lacks a more specific launch date until the payload shipment.
[dated Nov 5, 2020]

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/viasat-to-accelerate-european-broadband-strategy-ahead-of-viasat-3-satellite-launch-will-acquire-remaining-stake-in-its-european-broadband-joint-venture-including-the-ka-sat-satellite-301176735.html
Quote
The second ViaSat-3 class satellite in that constellation will cover Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and is targeted for launch in 2022.
[dated Nov 19, 2020]

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2020-11-05/viasat-shuffles-executive-suite-as-it-moves-closer-to-launch-of-new-internet-satellites
Quote
Viasat designs bus-sized, high-orbit Internet satellites. It is building a constellation of three new ones — each with a one terabyte of capacity — that will give the company a global Internet footprint. The first is slated to launch late next year and provide coverage across North and South America, delivering faster speeds than the current satellites and hefty data usage allowances.

The second is expected to be in orbit six months later with coverage across Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The exact timing for the third ViaSat-3 over Asia is to be determined.
[dated Nov 5, 2020]

Launch delayed to (NET?) midyear 2022:
https://advanced-television.com/2021/06/09/viasat-gets-closer-to-version-3-0-launch/
Quote
Viasat of California says the first of its trio of its Version 3.0 satellites has completed testing and payload integration at Viasat’s own facility. Boeing will now take care of the further integration with performance testing.

The satellite, destined to cover the Americas, will launch early next year. Two more V 3.0 will follow. One will cover Europe, the Mid-East and Africa and the third will serve the Asia-Pacific region.

Viasat says that its European/MEA bird will be delivered to Boeing later next year.

“I can’t predict that there won’t be any other COVID impacts,” Rick Baldridge, Viasat’s president and CEO, said on the company’s recent fiscal Q4/2021 earnings call, noting that the second payload (for the EMEA) region is running about six months behind the first payload for the Americas. “It has definitely hit us pretty hard this last year on that payload.”
[dated June 9]
« Last Edit: 12/17/2021 08:45 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Online Yiosie

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - 2022
« Reply #54 on: 12/17/2021 11:18 pm »
Launch delayed to Q4 2022:

Returning airline traffic boosts Viasat and Intelsat financials [dated Aug. 5]

Quote
The company said the first ViaSat-3 satellite, which will cover the Americas, has been delivered to Boeing for final spacecraft integration and testing, ahead of a launch in the first or second quarter of 2022.

A second ViaSat-3, for covering Europe, the Middle East and Africa, is due to launch five to six months later, followed by a third spacecraft for Asia.

Payload issue delays SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch to early 2022 [dated Oct. 4]

Quote
The next commercial Falcon Heavy launch is also scheduled for the second quarter of 2022, carrying a Viasat 3 broadband communications satellite toward geostationary orbit.

5-6 months after Q2 2022 = Q4 2022.

Offline GWR64

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - Q4 2022
« Reply #55 on: 03/16/2022 04:01 pm »
problems:
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1503745190208712720

Quote
@ViasatInc
 & Israel, rebuffed in Oct., return to @ITU
 to ask for Covid-caused in-service deadline extension for Viasat-3/EMEA, to launch on @ulalaunch
 Atlas 5 in late March 2023.

https://advanced-television.com/2022/03/16/viasat-asks-for-itu-launch-extension/

Quote
Viasat asks for ITU launch extension
...

Offline GWR64

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - March 2023
« Reply #56 on: 04/22/2022 01:10 pm »
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1517451252640141315

Quote
[email protected] gives @ViasatInc until July 29, 2023, to start service on Viasat-3 EMEA satellite at 13.8E using Israel-registered spectrum. Late-March 2023 launch on @ulalaunch Atlas 5.

tight schedule,
approximately 4 months for the remaining ascent to the geostationary orbit, testing and commissioning  ???
« Last Edit: 04/22/2022 01:12 pm by GWR64 »

Offline GWR64

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - March 2023
« Reply #57 on: 05/27/2022 12:53 pm »
Viasat Shareholder Letter: Q4 and Fiscal Year 2022 Financial Results
https://investors.viasat.com/static-files/066bd869-c157-4b16-85bd-7c626ddd49b7
Quote
The second ViaSat-3 payload (EMEA) is anticipated to complete and ship
to Boeing in Q1 FY2023.

Q1 FY2023 is Q2 CY2022 (the current quarter)





Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - March 2023
« Reply #58 on: 06/25/2022 07:34 pm »
Cross-post; launch perhaps later than late March 2023?
hm, SpaceNews article June 22, 2022
original version? in google webcache [June 24]

Quote
Viasat is a global provider of satellite broadband and is looking to sign up military customers for its new Viasat-3 geostationary constellation of three highcapacity satellites. The first ViaSat-3, projected to launch in early 2023, will cover the Americas, to be followed later in the year by a second satellite to service Europe, the Middle East and Africa. A third satellite will cover Asia.
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:laRwmAjMFQsJ:https://spacenews.com/dod-satcom-big-money-for-military-satellites-slow-shift-to-commercial-services/+&cd=14&hl=de&ct=clnk&gl=de&client=firefox-b-d

current version:
you can see that the section at the date for the second satellite doesn't make sense now, that's why I looked in the cache
Quote
Viasat is a global provider of satellite broadband and is looking to sign up military customers for its new Viasat-3 geostationary constellation of three highcapacity satellites. The first ViaSat-3, projected to launch in late 2022, will cover the Americas, to be followed later in the year by a second satellite to service Europe, the Middle East and Africa. A third satellite will cover Asia.

https://spacenews.com/dod-satcom-big-money-for-military-satellites-slow-shift-to-commercial-services/
« Last Edit: 06/25/2022 07:37 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline GWR64

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - March 2023
« Reply #59 on: 07/30/2022 01:20 pm »
Viasat Shareholder Letter: Q4 and Fiscal Year 2022 Financial Results
https://investors.viasat.com/static-files/066bd869-c157-4b16-85bd-7c626ddd49b7
Quote
The second ViaSat-3 payload (EMEA) is anticipated to complete and ship
to Boeing in Q1 FY2023.

Q1 FY2023 is Q2 CY2022 (the current quarter)

almost without further delay

Quote
Viasat Completes Major Milestone with Second ViaSat-3 Satellite Payload

Jul 13, 2022, 08:00 ET


Payload Delivered to Boeing to Prepare for Broadband Service to EMEA Region


CARLSBAD, Calif., July 13, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Viasat Inc. (NASDAQ: VSAT), a global leader in satellite communications, announced delivery of the second ViaSat-3 payload module to Boeing's El Segundo, CA facility where it will be integrated with Boeing's 702 spacecraft bus platform and undergo rigorous spacecraft environmental testing in preparation for launch. The second ViaSat-3 class satellite is expected to provide broadband service over Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) in 2023.


Viasat's satellite payload, designed and built in-house, provides state-of-the-art electronics for receiving, transmitting and processing broadband internet data to and from the satellite at expected rates greater than 1 terabit a second (1,000 gigabits a second), which is three times faster than ViaSat-2, the fastest communications satellite currently operating.

"Delivery of the second ViaSat-3 payload module marks a major milestone where we transition to spacecraft integration and test on the second satellite in our constellation," said Dave Ryan, president, Space & Commercial Networks at Viasat. "This milestone increases our momentum towards delivering the future of affordable, accessible satellite broadband services, virtually anywhere around the globe."

The ViaSat-3 class of Ka-band satellites is expected to provide the best bandwidth economics in the industry with incredible flexibility to move and concentrate that capacity virtually anywhere there is demand - whether it is over land, the ocean or in the air. The first two satellites are planned to focus on the Americas and on EMEA, respectively. The third ViaSat-3 satellite is undergoing final integration and testing and will focus on the Asia Pacific region, completing Viasat's global service coverage.
Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements that are subject to the safe harbors created under the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward looking statements include among others, statements about the performance, capabilities and anticipated benefits of the ViaSat-3 class satellite platform, expected capacity, service, speeds, coverage, flexibility and other features of the ViaSat-3 constellation, and the timing of hardware delivery and service launch. Readers are cautioned that actual results could differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ include: risks associated with the construction, launch and operation of the ViaSat-3 class satellites and Viasat's other satellites, including the effect of any anomaly, operational failure or degradation in satellite performance; the ability to realize the anticipated benefits of the ViaSat-3 satellite platforms; unexpected expenses or delays related to the satellite system; the ability to successfully implement Viasat's business plan for broadband satellite services on Viasat's anticipated timeline or at all, including with respect to the ViaSat-3 satellite platforms; contractual problems, product defects, manufacturing issues or delays; regulatory issues; technologies not being developed according to anticipated schedules, or that do not perform according to expectations; and increased competition and other factors affecting the connectivity sector, generally. In addition, please refer to the risk factors contained in Viasat's SEC filings available at www.sec.gov, including Viasat's most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. Viasat undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements for any reason.
About Viasat

Viasat is a global communications company that believes everyone and everything in the world can be connected. For more than 36 years, Viasat has helped shape how consumers, businesses, governments and militaries around the world communicate. Today, the Company is developing the ultimate global communications network to power high-quality, secure, affordable, fast connections to impact people's lives anywhere they are—on the ground, in the air or at sea. To learn more about Viasat, visit: www.viasat.com, go to Viasat's Corporate Blog, or follow the Company on social media at: Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, Twitter or YouTube.

Copyright © 2022 Viasat, Inc. All rights reserved. Viasat, the Viasat logo and the Viasat signal are registered trademarks of Viasat, Inc. All other product or company names mentioned are used for identification purposes only and may be trademarks of their respective owners.

SOURCE Viasat, Inc.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/viasat-completes-major-milestone-with-second-viasat-3-satellite-payload-301585512.html
« Last Edit: 07/30/2022 01:25 pm by GWR64 »

 

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