Author Topic: Ariane 6 Discussion Thread: Place Your Ariane 6 Discussions Here  (Read 940846 times)

Offline TheKutKu

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I wonder why so much sudden interest in European rockets
Is this a self-serving attack to demoralize European taxpayers and lose our independent access to space, in favor of SpaceX?
why not the same interest in the Japanese H-3, which looks just as messy?

For a European to attack Arianespace like this borders on treason.

Let's get Ariane 6 up and running first, then we'll see how we can improve the situation.

And if necessary, access in Europe to foreign communications constellations will have to be closed.

Europe has to have its own independent access to space, no matter the price.
The issue is how noncompetitive the Ariane 6 is in putting up satellites in launch price and launch frequency in the future. Which make deploying an European LEO satcom constellation really hard. Since the Ariane 6 probably can optimistically launch about 15 times annually.

As I see it: Europe can have limited non commercial access to space at a high cost with the launch hardware currently in development.

Exactly. With A6 and Vega-C Europe will have its required independent access to space BUT at a huge cost. And unlike the times of Ariane 1 thru Ariane 5, ESA won't be able to keep the costs for institutional launches down. Courtesy of having lost the commercial launch market to SpaceX. So, the institutional launches going up on Ariane 6 and Vega-C will pay hefty launch prices.

Given the 28 launches backlog, and since A6 isn't supposed to be more expensive (how cheaper, we won't know for a bit but there are enough industrial and processing changes we can hope that) than A5 at equal launch rate (which we hope can at least reach 6-7/y of A5 at the peak of its commercial success),
It's likely IMO that ESA won't have to pay more than what they paid for ~2016 Ariane 5, adjusted for inflation, until 2030 or so.

After 2030? Well I wouldn't even dare making predictions in any field past that date given the past few years...

Of course, 2016 Ariane 5 was already too expensive for ESA, and backlog evaporating overnight isn't unheard of (Delta IV, although we can hope the satellite market doesn't suffer like in 2001)...
« Last Edit: 08/14/2023 12:56 am by TheKutKu »

Offline floss

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Moon exploration is the next market

Offline GWR64

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https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/09/no-firm-date-on-ariane-6s-debut-and-no-public-talk-on-prices-either/

Quote
...

"Of course there is a crisis of launchers in Europe; that is why we are all focused on Ariane 6," said Philippe Baptiste, chairman and CEO of the French space agency CNES. "As far as institutional launch is concerned, the root of the crisis is mostly the Soyuz. The war in Ukraine had tremendous consequences, including the end of the Soyuz in French Guiana."

Europe recently launched its Euclid space telescope on a Falcon 9 rocket, and its EarthCARE planetary science mission will also launch next year on the SpaceX rocket. However, during the news conference, Israël seemed to have a difficult time saying the name of his competitor out loud. "Euclid has been launched by another launcher," he said. "It will be the same for EarthCARE."

Still to be determined is the fate of four Galileo navigation satellites. That decision remains under consideration by the European Commission, but it seems most probable that the four satellites will be launched on two Falcon 9 missions since that is the only Western rocket with any spare capacity for the next couple of years.
...

The background was the question of how to proceed with the launch of the Galileo satellites and CSO-3.
https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Videos/2023/09/Ariane_6_media_briefing_September_2023
around at 46:00
Regarding CSO-3, Stéphane Israël passed the question to Philippe Baptiste, who was sitting next to him.
He said the above writen, basically a repetition of what Israël said before, but didn't answer the actual question about the CSO-3 launch.
...one second silence in the room...

Offline GWR64

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Ariane 6 update thread:
https://twitter.com/aschbacherjosef/status/1704875460000129370

Quote
Ariane 6 task force update: great data and results from the hot-fire September tests for #Ariane6 both in French Guiana and Germany. However, an anomaly was detected in the thrust control vector hydraulics when preparing for the next test and the long-duration hot firing test will no longer take place on 3 October as teams investigate the causes. We will come back to you with more updates when available.

https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Transportation/Ariane/Ariane_6_joint_update_report_21_September_2023

Oh dear, I was still hoping that the launch might take place in the first half of the year 2024.
This new delay will be directly reflected in the date of the maiden flight, and more importantly, of the second launch.
« Last Edit: 09/22/2023 10:05 am by GWR64 »

Offline Mamut

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Anomaly? That might be anything, weeks, months or years of delay. Let's wait for more detailed updates.

Offline EnigmaSCADA

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The following was published in a French newspaper today. It has been translated into English using whatever the built-in translation service for MS Edge is.

Quote
Space: Airbus and Safran want more public money to operate Ariane 6


According to corroborating sources, ArianeGroup, owned by Airbus and Safran, is negotiating with the member states of the European Space Agency a very clear reassessment of support for the operation of Ariane 6 due to the consequences of inflation. The manufacturer is asking for €350 million per year, corresponding to an increase of ... 150%.

Michel Cabirol
08 Oct 2023, 5:00 pm



A complete paradigm shift. In 2014, when they announced that they wanted to take control of the Ariane 6 program, Airbus and Safran proclaimed loud and clear that they did not need public aid for the operation of the future European heavy launcher, this is no longer the case. This is the original sin of the two industrialists, who in order to "privatize" Ariane 6 at all costs, have promised mountains and wonders to the Member States of the European Space Agency (ESA), in particular to France, which has always ensured European leadership in the field of launchers.

And François Hollande, seduced by the very uncertain promises of the two industrialists on the basis of a simple project hastily set up to torpedo the project of a CNES PPH launcher (two solid rocket base stages and a cryogenic stage), offered them the keys to Ariane 6. Airbus and Safran, now united in a joint subsidiary ArianeGroup, had also promised to develop and design a low-cost launcher that was due to be operational by 2020. The goal has been largely missed: the European heavy launcher is supposed to fly for the first time in 2024, three and a half years late.

A decision at the beginning of November?

Battered by competition from SpaceX, which is launching satellites like hotcakes (68 launches since the beginning of the year, compared to three for European space from French Guiana) and exhausted by the Covid-19 crisis and the repeated delays of Ariane 6, ArianeGroup succeeded in 2021 in convincing ESA Member States to grant it financial support for the operation of Ariane 6 estimated at around €140 million per year. Two years later, the European manufacturer is back at it again because of the hyperinflation that has been raging for two years.

A few weeks before a space summit to be held on 7 November in Seville, he is in the process of negotiating a very clear reassessment of support for the operation of Ariane 6. It is asking ESA Member States for €350 million per year. That's an incredible 150% increase. "We do not want a non-decision in Seville," insists France. This aid would allow it to remain competitive in the commercial market in which SpaceX is extremely aggressive. Among other things, the American manufacturer is taking advantage of extremely generous orders from the Pentagon and NASA to lower its prices on the commercial market and sign a slew of contracts with private operators.

ArianeGroup's request is not completely illegitimate, despite original sin. Because sovereign access to space has a cost that all countries with launchers afford with different public aid, including the United States by signing generous contracts for SpaceX, in particular. That's what Tom Enders and Jean-Paul Herteman, the bosses of Airbus and Safran respectively at the time, should have known when they got their hands on Ariane 6 in 2014. They showed a certain arrogance in believing that the industrialists knew how to manage these major programmes better than the public authorities.

A request that makes you cringe

This reassessment of operating aid is causing a lot of criticism, especially in Germany. However, the Germans could seize this opportunity to make the French accept in return the principle of intra-European competition for the purchase of launch services. This would allow Berlin, which strongly supports its German NewSpace start-ups such as Isar Aerospace and HyImpulse Technologies, to create a competitor to Ariane 6 in the medium term. However, a launcher that has already struggled to break even due to the geographical return imposed by ESA.
But taking the lead in the space sector, and more particularly in the field of launchers, has been a stated objective of Germany for several years. Finally, Italy, the third major European nation in space, which has developed the Avio family of launchers (Vega and then Vega-C), is also very interested in stronger operational support from ESA. Especially if France succeeds. The discussions between France, Germany and Italy are going to be tight, very tight. But each of them will have to remember above all that the best interest in this matter is Europe, a space power...


https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/aeronautique-defense/airbus-et-safran-veulent-plus-d-argent-public-pour-exploiter-ariane-6-979126.html
« Last Edit: 10/09/2023 02:05 am by EnigmaSCADA »

Offline Zed_Noir

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The following was published in a French newspaper today. It has been translated into English using whatever the built-in translation service for MS Edge is.

Quote
Space: Airbus and Safran want more public money to operate Ariane 6


According to corroborating sources, ArianeGroup, owned by Airbus and Safran, is negotiating with the member states of the European Space Agency a very clear reassessment of support for the operation of Ariane 6 due to the consequences of inflation. The manufacturer is asking for €350 million per year, corresponding to an increase of ... 150%.

Michel Cabirol
08 Oct 2023, 5:00 pm



A complete paradigm shift. In 2014, when they announced that they wanted to take control of the Ariane 6 program, Airbus and Safran proclaimed loud and clear that they did not need public aid for the operation of the future European heavy launcher, this is no longer the case. This is the original sin of the two industrialists, who in order to "privatize" Ariane 6 at all costs, have promised mountains and wonders to the Member States of the European Space Agency (ESA), in particular to France, which has always ensured European leadership in the field of launchers.

And François Hollande, seduced by the very uncertain promises of the two industrialists on the basis of a simple project hastily set up to torpedo the project of a CNES PPH launcher (two solid rocket base stages and a cryogenic stage), offered them the keys to Ariane 6. Airbus and Safran, now united in a joint subsidiary ArianeGroup, had also promised to develop and design a low-cost launcher that was due to be operational by 2020. The goal has been largely missed: the European heavy launcher is supposed to fly for the first time in 2024, three and a half years late.
<snip>
Heh, both the original PPH configuration and the current  configuration for the Ariane 6 would wind up with about the same results, IMO. Since there is a limit to number of casting pours for the solid motors at Kourou.

Note - Please add a link to the original newspaper article.


Offline Rik ISS-fan

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A clear NO to the increased support for Arianegroup. Their pis por performance should be punished not promoted.
Do your job Arianegroup get Ariane 6 operational.
Ariane 62 will cost probably 120mln and Ariane 64 150mln.
Just do your job, get Ariane 6 operational and launch contracts will come your way.
« Last Edit: 10/09/2023 05:02 pm by Rik ISS-fan »

Offline friendly3

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A clear NO to the increased support for Arianegroup. Their pis por performance should be punished not promoted.
Do your job Arianegroup get Ariane 6 operational.
Ariane 62 will cost probably 120mln and Ariane 64 150mln.
Just do your job, get Ariane 6 operational and launch contracts will come your way.

If your cost estimations are correct (which I think they are) launch contracts won't come their way as easily, only governmental ones.

Offline deltaV

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Quote
Space: Airbus and Safran want more public money to operate Ariane 6

However, the Germans could seize this opportunity to make the French accept in return the principle of intra-European competition for the purchase of launch services. This would allow Berlin, which strongly supports its German NewSpace start-ups such as Isar Aerospace and HyImpulse Technologies, to create a competitor to Ariane 6 in the medium term.

The main lesson to be learned from SpaceX is competition, not re-usability. Competition is Europe's only realistic hope of getting launch costs that aren't embarrassing. It would therefore be great if German pressure leads to ESA creating intra-European competition.

Offline Zed_Noir

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A clear NO to the increased support for Arianegroup. Their pis por performance should be punished not promoted.
Do your job Arianegroup get Ariane 6 operational.
Ariane 62 will cost probably 120mln and Ariane 64 150mln.
Just do your job, get Ariane 6 operational and launch contracts will come your way.

If your cost estimations are correct (which I think they are) launch contracts won't come their way as easily, only governmental ones.

Even government entities want reasonable launch availability as in how long they have to wait for a launch slot.

There is a big difference between a launch provider able to offer about a dozen launches annually to a certain company able offer an launch opportunity every few days.

Finally think the cost estimates of the Ariane 6 by @Rik ISS-fan is probably correct. One must take into account the rate of annual inflation. Which by the time Ariane 6 is operational might bump the launch cost up by at least 15%, in my estimation.

The Ariane 62 seems to be excessively expensive for a medium launcher for even governments.

Offline TheKutKu

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https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/aeronautique-defense/ariane-6-vers-un-premier-vol-en-avril-mai-2024-977533.html
[Oct 11]

-ESA is aiming for a April-May launch windows of the first Ariane 6
-Anomaly that delayed Long test fire is caused by an impermeability issues in the hydraulic systems of the Vulcan's TVC, Arianegroup expects a quick fix that should not affect the first launch's schedule
-WDR in deteriorated conditions planned for October 24-25
-Long test fire is planned for Late november, pending repairs of the Vulcain's nozzle.
-First launch A6's fairing arriving in Kourou on November 3, its core stage and upper stage on December 10
-Planned launch rate: 2 A6 in 2024, 6 in 2025, 8 in 2026, 10 in 2027; First 4 will be Ariane 62
-2 of the 18 kuiper launches seem to have been shifted to Ariane 62 (instead of the previous 16 A64+ plus 2 A64)
« Last Edit: 10/11/2023 08:36 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline Mamut

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Looks like we're on the final stretch. Not much can really go wrong since that point. 4 years behind the schedule but finally we're gonna see mighty Ariane 6 flying soon. And if you take into account 2 years of covid pandemic, the delay is not that bad at all.
Whether the rocket is good or bad, a lot has been already said, I just want to mention, that first time in 25 years, Europe managed to assemble a team of ingenieurs, who actually designed and build a big rocket. Many seem not notice significance of this.
« Last Edit: 10/11/2023 02:32 pm by Mamut »

Offline Zed_Noir

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https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/aeronautique-defense/ariane-6-vers-un-premier-vol-en-avril-mai-2024-977533.html

-ESA is aiming for a April-May launch windows of the first Ariane 6
-Anomaly that delayed Long test fire is caused by an impermeability issues in the hydraulic systems of the Vulcan's TVC, Arianegroup expects a quick fix that should not affect the first launch's schedule
-WDR in deteriorated conditions planned for October 24-25
-Long test fire is planned for Late november, pending repairs of the Vulcain's nozzle.
-First launch A6's fairing arriving in Kourou on November 3, its core stage and upper stage on December 10
-Planned launch rate: 2 A6 in 2024, 6 in 2025, 8 in 2026, 10 in 2027; First 4
-2 of the 18 kuiper launches seem to have been shifted to Ariane 62 (instead of the previous 16 A64+ plus 2 A64)
Think Amazon is choosing Ariane 62 for some the early Kuiper launches due to availability issues with the Ariane 64. There are customers ahead of Amazon in the launch queue for the Ariane 64, which might not debut until 2025.

Offline friendly3

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Looks like we're on the final stretch. Not much can really go wrong since that point. 4 years behind the schedule but finally we're gonna see mighty Ariane 6 flying soon. And if you take into account 2 years of covid pandemic, the delay is not that bad at all.
Whether the rocket is good or bad, a lot has been already said(...)

The rocket is bad, already technologically obsolete and economically uncompetitive.

I just want to mention, that first time in 25 years, Europe managed to assemble a team of ingenieurs, who actually designed and build a big rocket. Many seem not notice significance of this.

Count me in.

Offline Mamut

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The rocket is bad, already technologically obsolete and economically uncompetitive.(...)

Do we really need to drag on this argument foerever? It's not competitive to what? SpaceX? Nothing is. It's better then previous one thou. They have more launches already contracted, then are able to provide. It's competitive enough. We couldn't use Ariane 5 for next 25 years, Ariane 6 was a must.

Count me in.
Arianespace has just proven that is capable of building rocket stuff. It was critical. Without Ariane 6, it would be difficult to convince private or public investors to give more money on Themis project. Now I can see bright future.
« Last Edit: 10/11/2023 08:34 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline zubenelgenubi

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<snip>
-Planned launch rate: 2 A6 in 2024, 6 in 2025, 8 in 2026, 10 in 2027; First 4 will be Ariane 62
-2 of the 18 kuiper launches seem to have been shifted to Ariane 62 (instead of the previous 16 A64+ plus 2 A64)
What will the second Ariane 6 launch be?  A62 or A64?  Payload?
« Last Edit: 10/11/2023 08:44 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline TheKutKu

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<snip>
-Planned launch rate: 2 A6 in 2024, 6 in 2025, 8 in 2026, 10 in 2027; First 4 will be Ariane 62
-2 of the 18 kuiper launches seem to have been shifted to Ariane 62 (instead of the previous 16 A64+ plus 2 A64)
What will the second Ariane 6 launch be?  A62 or A64?  Payload?

A62 with CSO-3

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Why bother with referbishing the test article?
The factories have been practically dormant for over three years. They should have build additional launchers that would now become test hardware. Peny wise, >0,7 billion fulish.
Why the slow rampup?
Because the Arianegroup & Avio prefered the incompetence path?
Let taxpayers bankroll doing nothing for over three years!
The infastructure is designed for 14 annual launches. My cost estimates are with this launch rate in mind.

I get the impression; the solids that are the ramp-up bottleneck.
I totally don't understand this. Who messed up setting up their production proces?
As European taxpayer I demand a propper explanation.
Without it, industry does not deserve to be compencated for their incompetence in the transition from Ariane 5 to Ariane 6.

Industry wanted more responsebility. That also means financial risk. They aren't capable of reaching the planned 11-14 annual launches before 2027, while 2023 was promised in 2019. 
Than that financial burden should fall on them, or we should know who is to blame. We are talking about billions additional tax funding.

Lessons to be learned ESA (member states):
When working with public funding; the contracts should be published with only minor reductions. This reduces risk on purposely  pis por performance to get higher payments for doing the job badly.
I get the impression some actors purposely performed badly. If this is true; that actor should be held accountable.

Both Arianegroup  and Avio should know they are not to big to fail.
The 340mln annual subsidation is unacceptable in my opinion. If this is required , Arianegroup should be nationalized by Germany and France.
And I do 't get why Avio got any launcher development contract the past three years. They don't deserve it, given their pis por performance.

I'll end this rent, from an European space enthusiast turned sour.

I don't want Arianegroup to offer the launches at lower prices with the aid annual subsidation. I think when Arianegroup has prove Ariane 6 is reliable launcher. With 120mln for Ariane 62 and 150mln for A64, demand will be there.
If not; let's throw that 1.8 billion public funding into the development of Ariane next. But that's an item for after 2025.

Tags: vernovela 
 

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