Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 392883 times)

Offline IanThePineapple

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #700 on: 06/27/2017 02:04 am »
The schedule on SpaceflightNow has Formosat-5 slipping to August...

I'm honestly wondering if Formosat will even launch this year, it's slipping like Falcon Heavy.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #701 on: 06/27/2017 02:06 am »
The schedule on SpaceflightNow has Formosat-5 slipping to August...

I'm honestly wondering if Formosat will even launch this year, it's slipping like Falcon Heavy.

It should be launching NLT August.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #702 on: 06/27/2017 02:08 pm »
Updated it [Formosat-5] via the L2 schedules. August 24 NET. Former Iridium NEXT-3 slot - which is now in September.

Offline envy887

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #703 on: 06/27/2017 02:20 pm »
Updated it [Formosat-5] via the L2 schedules. August 24 NET. Former Iridium NEXT-3 slot - which is now in September.

Can you add landing locations for FORMOSAT and SES-11?

Offline old_sellsword

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SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #704 on: 06/27/2017 03:26 pm »
Updated it [Formosat-5] via the L2 schedules. August 24 NET. Former Iridium NEXT-3 slot - which is now in September.

Can you add landing locations for FORMOSAT and SES-11?

We don't know FORMOSAT-5's landing location, or if SES-11 will even land at all.
« Last Edit: 06/27/2017 03:27 pm by old_sellsword »

Offline envy887

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #705 on: 06/27/2017 06:17 pm »
Updated it [Formosat-5] via the L2 schedules. August 24 NET. Former Iridium NEXT-3 slot - which is now in September.

Can you add landing locations for FORMOSAT and SES-11?

We don't know FORMOSAT-5's landing location, or if SES-11 will even land at all.

Uhh...

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42937.msg1695270#msg1695270

Aren't there FCC filings for a transmitter on the ASDS? I seem to recall something like that, but don't have specifics on it.
« Last Edit: 06/27/2017 06:18 pm by envy887 »

Offline old_sellsword

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #706 on: 06/27/2017 06:46 pm »
Updated it [Formosat-5] via the L2 schedules. August 24 NET. Former Iridium NEXT-3 slot - which is now in September.

Can you add landing locations for FORMOSAT and SES-11?

We don't know FORMOSAT-5's landing location, or if SES-11 will even land at all.

Uhh...

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42937.msg1695270#msg1695270

That's an L2 link, which serves no appreciable purpose for this manifest until Chris decides to take that information public.

Aren't there FCC filings for a transmitter on the ASDS? I seem to recall something like that, but don't have specifics on it.

Yes, although SpaceX recently made it much harder to match FCC filings to missions since they started using MXXXX identifiers instead of F9-XX.

Online Chris Bergin

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #707 on: 06/27/2017 07:00 pm »

That's an L2 link, which serves no appreciable purpose for this manifest until Chris decides to take that information public.



My ears are burning ;)

ASDS landing [of Formosat-5], basically, for the purpose of answering the question.
« Last Edit: 06/27/2017 08:02 pm by gongora »
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Offline intrepidpursuit

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #708 on: 06/27/2017 07:59 pm »

That's an L2 link, which serves no appreciable purpose for this manifest until Chris decides to take that information public.



My ears are burning ;)

ASDS landing, basically, for the purpose of answering the question.

If I may be so bold, you are referring to FORMOSAT-5 being ASDS correct?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #709 on: 06/27/2017 07:59 pm »
ASDS landing, basically, for the purpose of answering the question.
If I may be so bold, you are referring to FORMOSAT-5 being ASDS correct?

Yes
« Last Edit: 06/27/2017 08:00 pm by gongora »

Offline tleski

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #710 on: 06/28/2017 02:25 pm »
Cross posting (refers to X37-B (OTV-5))

Spaceflight Now is showing this on August 28.
« Last Edit: 06/28/2017 02:26 pm by tleski »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #711 on: 06/30/2017 04:10 pm »
For the other people who look at FCC permits:

Did I miss one or is 1387 expendable?  SES-11?

Is 1348 for OTV-5?  If not what the heck is it?

Offline Raul

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #712 on: 06/30/2017 09:11 pm »
Yes, it looks there is another expendable M1387 in near future except M1372 for Intelsat-35e, no idea which one.

I consider SES-11 rather like M1370 (ASDS).
I agree with OTV-5 like M1348 (LZ1).
« Last Edit: 06/30/2017 09:14 pm by Raul »

Offline Lars-J

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #713 on: 07/07/2017 10:23 pm »
This is probably the best thread for this... https://www.instagram.com/p/BWPu_jrAFBB/

Quote
elonmusk 10 so far this year, another 12 to go

Offline abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #714 on: 07/07/2017 10:31 pm »
So 12 more to go, while there are currently 15 marked as this year on this manifest.  Any guesses as to the most likely ones to drop off?  The last three (Hispasat 1F, Bangabandhu, Paz & co-passenger) seem like a reasonable place to look...
« Last Edit: 07/07/2017 10:33 pm by abaddon »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #715 on: 07/07/2017 10:51 pm »
So 12 more to go, while there are currently 15 marked as this year on this manifest.  Any guesses as to the most likely ones to drop off?  The last three (Hispasat 1F, Bangabandhu, Paz & co-passenger) seem like a reasonable place to look...

I would guess the next 8 on the manifest, and CRS-13, should fly this year.  Hard to say which of the others at this point.  Iridium Flight 5 in December is questionable if Flight 3 is pushed to September.  Is SAOCOM 1A actually going to be completed soon?  (still need to start a mission thread for that one.)  Bangabandhu owners really seemed to want a December launch, and have said recently they were on track for December.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #716 on: 07/07/2017 11:59 pm »
So 12 more to go, while there are currently 15 marked as this year on this manifest.  Any guesses as to the most likely ones to drop off?  The last three (Hispasat 1F, Bangabandhu, Paz & co-passenger) seem like a reasonable place to look...

I'll stick my neck out and prepare for the blowback.

FH delay till Q1 2018

Getting LC40 back into operation then the LC39A mods then testing and getting FH ready.  Sounds like a lot to cram into 5.5 months.
Superheavy + Starship the final push to launch commit!

Offline abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #717 on: 07/08/2017 12:38 am »
The question isn't if FH will slip to 2018, the question is if it is one of the 12 Musk stated as still scheduled for 2017.  I think that is very likely.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #718 on: 07/08/2017 07:25 pm »
Presumably 3 or 4 of the 12 Elon cites are from VAFB. Let's be conservative and say 3, so at most 9 from the Cape, or 2 a month with, say, just 1 in December.

So that's a plausible limit for the most SpaceX can physically do this year, but I can't help wondering if they are close to being limited by payload availability?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #719 on: 07/08/2017 07:44 pm »
They are not limited by payload availability this year, and probably won't be next year.  Keep in mind they are still launching the non-government payloads 5+ months late (some of the September/October launches will be stuff originally targeted for late 2016).  With the leftovers from 2017 spilling into 2018, they have around 30 missions for next year.  The limiting factor will be launch vehicle availability for the near future, probably until 2019.  Even reusing some first stages isn't going to change that.

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