Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5  (Read 786938 times)

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #781 on: 09/29/2020 05:30 pm »
Hans seemed to imply today that CRS-21 will launch from LC-39A due the ability of being able to use the crew arm to late-load cargo on the pad.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #782 on: 10/01/2020 04:50 am »
Hans seemed to imply today that CRS-21 will launch from LC-39A due the ability of being able to use the crew arm to late-load cargo on the pad.

Think the Cargo Dragon will likely be launched mostly from LC-39A since you don't have to lower the Falcon 9 to horizontal to access the Dragon interior there. IMO

Offline su27k

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #783 on: 10/05/2020 03:14 am »
Has this mystery payload been discussed before?

https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1311101591496224769

Quote
SpaceX is targeting no earlier than October for a Falcon 9 mission featuring a return to launch site recovery, per an FCC filing. No missions on SpaceX's publicly-known manifest seem to be a good fit. It could *possibly* be an unannounced mission.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=102332

Quote
And no, it is not CRS-21. Filings for the CRS-21 mission can be found below. That mission is an ASDS recovery.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=102802&RequestTimeout=1000

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=102959&RequestTimeout=1000

Further discussion: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45440.280

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #784 on: 10/05/2020 04:02 am »
Has this mystery payload been discussed before?

It was mentioned in the mission paperwork thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45440.msg2136954#msg2136954

If CRS-2 missions are RTLS ASDS landings then it would seem to be a mission that isn't currently on our manifest.  I guess we'll find out if a rocket appears at the pad and none of the publicly known customers have said they're launching at the time.
« Last Edit: 10/05/2020 06:14 pm by gongora »

Offline ZachS09

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #785 on: 10/05/2020 05:31 am »
I’m assuming the mystery payload is gonna be a ZUMA reflight.

Maybe NG had a backup satellite in storage and decided to include that in SpaceX’s manifest.
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #786 on: 10/06/2020 10:21 am »
https://twitter.com/johnkrausphotos/status/1313423281236647936

Quote
The National Reconnaissance Office has confirmed it will launch a payload on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral later this month, a mission on SpaceX’s schedule that was not publicly disclosed until recently.

FULL STORY: spaceflightnow.com/2020/10/05/nro…

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #787 on: 10/06/2020 04:50 pm »
What a spaghetti schedule.

For the GPS launch. If it doesn't launch by 10-11-20 it likely would not launch until Nov. Although it could be replaced in the schedule by L13. Depending on where in the processing the booster and components are in their schedule. Also the NRO-108 is likely to use 1060.3 for it's booster since by 10-25 it would be 42 days in the boosters's cycle.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #788 on: 10/14/2020 10:24 pm »
Now adding Starlink 15

My gosh, what a log jam.  GPS, NRO, Crew 1, 3 starlinks, Sirius and a VAFB launch.

That's 8 launches in the very near future.  The Navy is not going to get any rest.
Superheavy + Starship the final push to launch commit!

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #789 on: 10/15/2020 01:19 pm »
...
My gosh, what a log jam. 
...

I don't think it's a jam.
More likely some of these launches were already moved to the right - we just don't know which ones.
Below I attached current "SpaceX FPIP-chart"
It shows that - if this schedule holds - we would see a string of 8 to 9 launches during October and November.
Well, my records show the best "long cadence" for SpaceX is 6 launches in 61 days (Jan 31 2018 - Apr 2 2018).

So most likely some of these will go to "early 2021"

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #790 on: 10/17/2020 02:35 am »
Presuming no launch hiccups. We have a spooks round of launches just before Halloween.  ;D

Starlink flt 14
NROL-44
GPS III SV4
NROL-108
NROL-101
Starlink flt 15

Some suit in an nondescript office somewhere must be feeling anxiety over the dollars that the upcoming East coast NROL flights along with the West coast NROL-82 flight  represents.

note 1 - GPS III SV4 have to be flown before NROL-108 to validated newly build Falcon 9 cores for NRO & NASA.

note 2 - the Starlink flights are somewhat tenuously linked to the spooks in that some of them might be future communication relays for the spooks. Also to padded the list.  :P

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #791 on: 10/17/2020 04:03 am »
Presuming no launch hiccups. We have a spooks round of launches just before Halloween.  ;D

Starlink flt 14
NROL-44
GPS III SV4
NROL-108
NROL-101
Starlink flt 15

Some suit in an nondescript office somewhere must be feeling anxiety over the dollars that the upcoming East coast NROL flights along with the West coast NROL-82 flight  represents.

note 1 - GPS III SV4 have to be flown before NROL-108 to validated newly build Falcon 9 cores for NRO & NASA.

note 2 - the Starlink flights are somewhat tenuously linked to the spooks in that some of them might be future communication relays for the spooks. Also to padded the list.  :P

I'm not sure anything but the two Starlink flights on that list have a launch date right now.  The GPS payload was returned to the payload processing facility tonight.  I'm not sure anything else relies on GPS flying first.  It's quite possible nothing on that list besides the Starlinks fly this month.  The manifest is a bit of a mess right now.  We'll see how it plays out over the next couple months.

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #792 on: 10/26/2020 06:05 am »
There are currently 5 regular F9 boosters available for reuse:

B1049 - Starlink v1.0 L15 integration?
B1051 - Offloaded from ASDS
B1058 - Reprocessing for CRS-21
B1059 - NROL-108 integration HIF SLC-40
B1060 - Starlink v1.0 L14 ASDS recovery

New boosters:
B1061 - Dragon C207 Resilience (Crew-1)
B1062 - GPS III SV04 Sacagawea (engine investigation)
B1063 - Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich

B1064 - FH side USSF-44
B1065 - FH side USSF-44
B1066 - FH center USSF-44

Launch list for Eastern Range:
NROL-108
Crew-1
GPS III-SV04
SXM 7
CRS 21
Turksat 5A
Transporter 1
Starlink v1.0 L15 (non-priority/flexible)
« Last Edit: 10/26/2020 03:27 pm by Jansen »

Offline Arb

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #793 on: 10/26/2020 01:56 pm »
Priority list for Eastern Range:
...
Is this inside knowledge or supposition on your part? If the latter, it's considered good etiquette on NSF to make that clear.

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #794 on: 10/26/2020 03:25 pm »
It’s basically the current launch list, already prioritized by SX. The only launch that isn’t a priority is the Starlink launches. I can change the terminology if you feel it is not a good fit.

Offline Norm38

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #795 on: 10/26/2020 04:00 pm »
2020-10-31 (NET)   F9   1059.5   NROL-108
2020-11-10  1131/-8   F9   1063   L   Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich
2020-11                   F9   1062   S   GPS III-4
2020-11                   F9   1061   S   CCtCap Crew-1


Interesting lineup.  So continuing with the assumption that boosters before 1061 don't have the Merlin engine concern, they get NROL-108 off with 1059.5.  And then have 1063 and 1062 to prove out the engines before Crew-1.

Looks promising.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #796 on: 10/26/2020 04:11 pm »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #797 on: 11/05/2020 10:35 pm »
SpaceX webcast confirmed B1062 will refly on its second mission for the next GPS mission.
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #798 on: 11/10/2020 08:08 pm »
https://twitter.com/chrisg_nsf/status/1326269828139769856

Quote
Crew-2 - March 30th readiness date
Crew-3 - Late-summer/early-fall readiness date

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #799 on: 11/16/2020 04:02 am »
Snapshot of the manifest while I'm thinking about it, haven't saved one in a while.

Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 

The first four posts in this thread are maintained
1 - Current manifest and some links
2 - Past launches
3 - Smoliarm's graphical manifest
4 - links

Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion
Prior thread: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

Date: *=Local date differs from UTC date  ~=Date has some uncertainty
Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy, SS=Starship
Core: *=FH core numbers in footnotes, N=New, R=Reused
Payload(s): (R) = Rideshare
Mission: Blue number indicates additional information in footnotes.
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars / Moon / Footnotes / Launch success/payload failure

Sites:
      C=Cape Canaveral Spaceport (KSC/CCAFS) (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Active for Falcon 9
            KSC LC-39A: Active for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for Falcon 9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

U.S. daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

Note on F9 Mission numbers:  I counted AMOS-6 (lost in pre-launch testing) and did not count IFA (suborbital test flight).

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- .--- ------ .---  ----------------------------  --- .-----  -----  ----
2020-01-06*2119/-5F91049.4SStarlink v1.0 L2LEO~16kC-4079
2020-01-19  1030/-5F91046.4XCCiCap In-Flight Abort TestSUB.C-39AN/A
2020-01-29  0906/-5F91051.3SStarlink v1.0 L3LEO~16kC-4080
2020-02-17  1005/-5F91056.4SStarlink v1.0 L4LEO~16kC-4081
2020-03-06*2350/-5F91059.2LCRS SpX-20LEO~10kC-4082
2020-03-18  0816/-4F91048.5SStarlink v1.0 L5LEO~16kC-39A83
2020-04-22  1530/-4F91051.4SStarlink v1.0 L6LEO~16kC-39A84
2020-05-30  1522/-4F91058SCCtCap DM2 (Crew)LEO.C-39A85
2020-06-03*2125/-4F91049.5SStarlink v1.0 L7LEO~16kC-4086
2020-06-13  0521/-4F91059.3SStarlink v1.0 L8 (R)LEO~16kC-4087
2020-06-30  1610/-4F91060SGPS III-3MEO4311C-4088
2020-07-20  1730/-4F91058.2SANASIS-IIGTO.C-4089
2020-08-07  0112/-4F91051.5SStarlink v1.0 L9 (R)LEO~16kC-39A90
2020-08-18  1031/-4F91049.6SStarlink v1.0 L10 (R)LEO~16kC-4091
2020-08-30  1919/-4F91059.4LSAOCOM 1B (R)SSO3k+?C-4092
2020-09-03  0846/-4F91060.2SStarlink v1.0 L11LEO~16kC-39A93
2020-10-06  0729/-4F91058.3SStarlink v1.0 L12LEO~16kC-39A94
2020-10-18  0825/-4F91051.6SStarlink v1.0 L13LEO~16kC-39A95
2020-10-24  1131/-4F91060.3SStarlink v1.0 L14LEO~16kC-4096
2020-11-05  1824/-5F91062SGPS III-4MEO4400C-40.
2020-11-15*1927/-5F91061SCCtCap Crew-1LEO.C-39A.
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2020-11-21  0917/-8F91063LSentinel-6 Michael FreilichLEO1440V-4E.
2020-11F910xx.xSStarlink v1.0 L15LEO~16kC.
2020-12-02  1250/-5F91058.4SCRS2 SpX-21LEO~10kC-39A.
2020F91059.5LNROL-108LEO.C-40.
2020-12F9R.Türksat 5AGTO3500C.
2020F910xx.xSSiriusXM SXM-7GTO>6000C.
2020-12-18 (NET)F9..SpaceX Transporter-1SSO.C .
2021-02?F9..SARah 1SSO~2200V-4E.
2021-earlyF9..SiriusXM SXM-8GTO>5400C.
2021-03-30 (NET)F91061.2SCCtCap Crew-2LEO.C-39A.
2021 late springHNNN?X?USSF-44GEO.C-39A(H4)
2021-05F9..CRS2 SpX-22LEO.C.
2021-Q2F9..Türksat 5BGTO4500C.
2021-06F9..SpaceX Transporter-2SSO.C/V .
2021HN.USSF-52GTO.C-39A.
2021-Q3F9..O3B mPOWER 1-3MEO~5kC(130)
2021F9..SARah 2/3SSO~3600V-4E .
2021-07F91062.2SGPS III-5MEO4400C
2021-07F9R.DARTESC~500V-4E.
2021-07F9..Intuitive Machines (R).?C-39A .
2021-08F9..CRS2 SpX-23LEO.C.
2021-09F9R.WorldView Legion flight 1LEO.V.
2021-09-15F9R.IXPELEO337C-39A.
2021-09F910xx.xSCCtCap Crew-3LEO.C-39A.
2021-H2F9N.NROL-85LEO?C .
2021-H2F9N.NROL-87SSO?V-4E .
2021-11F9..CRS2 SpX-24LEO.C.
2021-12F9..SpaceX Transporter-3SSO.C/V .
2021-late (NET)F9R.WorldView Legion flight 2LEO.C.
2021-late (NET)F9..Axiom AX-1 (crewed)LEO.C-39A.
2021-late (NET)F9.SSpace Adventures DragonLEO.C-39A.
2021F9RSGPS III-6MEO4400C
2022-earlyF9..Nilesat-301GTO4100C-40.
2022-Q1F9..O3B mPOWER 4-6MEO~7kC(130)
2022-03F9..SWOTLEO2000V-4E.
2022-04F9..CRS2 SpX-25LEO.C.
2022F9..SES-18 / SES-19GTO.C.
2022-Q3F9..Galaxy 31/32GTO.C.
2022-Q3F9..Galaxy 33/34GTO.C.
2022-Q3F9R.Intelsat 40e with TEMPOGTO.C.
2022-07 (NET)HN.PsycheESC.C-39A(H5)
2022-09F9..CRS2 SpX-26LEO.C.
2022-Q4H..USSF-67....
2022-H2F9..O3B mPOWER 7-9MEO~7kC(130)
2022-lateF9..Space NorwayHEO4kV .
2022-08F9..Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter?678C(150)
2022-12...Masten MM1 (R?)?.C.
2023F9..SatriaGTO.C.
2023-04F9R.PACESSO1700C-40.
2023 (NET)SS..#dearMoonTLI.?.
2024SS..MarsTMI.?.
2024-H2F9..O3B mPOWER 10-11MEO~7kC(130)
2024-10F9..IMAPESC~500C-40.
TBD (2020-2024)F9..Commercial Crew (5 flights)LEO.C-39A.
2020F9..Starlink Deployment (up to 24)LEO.C.
2021+...Starlink Deployment (many)LEO.C/V.
2020+F9..SSO Rideshares (several/year)SSO.V.
TBD (2021-2024)F9..CRS-2 (4+ flights)LEO.C.
TBD (2021-2022)H..one of the ViaSat 3 satsGEO6400C-39A.

NOTES:
(H4) USSF-44 - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx.1  Center:10xx.1  Side2: 10xx.1
(H5) Psyche - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx.1  Center:10xx.1  Side2: 10xx.1
(120) Intersputnik NationSat & co-passenger NET 2020
(130) 2 flights for O3B mPOWER in 2021
(150) Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter : Post

Companies that appear to have launch contracts for unspecified payloads:
Eutelsat, Inmarsat, Bigelow

Rideshare Program Thread
Rideshare payloads (which flight it's on may not be known yet)
       Local        LV  .                             .    Mass   .     
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site
-------------------  --- .----------------------------  --- .-----  ----- 
2020-03F9Capella Sequoia (on SAOCOM-1B)LEO<100C
2020-03F9PlanetiQ GNOMES-1 (on SAOCOM-1B)LEO40C
2020-Q4F9Kepler (2 flights)SSO?..
2020-12F9ELaNa 35 (on Starlink)LEO.C
2020-lateF9NanoRacks (8x Lemur-2 + Mfg Demo)...
2020-12F9Momentus/AuroraSSO..
2021-02F9Feb. 2021 RideshareLEO..
2021F9Astranis 2021-midGTO..
2022F9ispace HAKUTO-R...


Possible future payloads:

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force

Canceled payloads: ABS-8, AMOS-8, GiSat-1, PTScientists, Ovzon-3, Bigelow Tourism to ISS

L2 notes on manifest:

Upcoming Mars Launch Windows: 2020-06, 2022-08, 2024-09, 2026-11, 2029-01

SpaceX Mission Paperwork / Raul's Map
Starlink Index Thread / Commercial Space Index Thread
L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch / Public Core Spotting
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) / Wikipedia Falcon Launches
Viewing flights from Vandenberg / Ben Cooper's Viewing Guide for Cape Canaveral / Viewing Flights from KSC/CCAFS
Upcoming SpaceX Talks / General Industry Talks
SpaceX Falcon Mission Simulations
SpaceX Eastern Range Landing Facilities
NSF Manifest Threads: U.S. / Russian / Arianespace / Japanese / Chinese / Indian / Rocket Lab / Consolidated

Recent Edits:
Nov 5  Worldview Legion delayed until September 2021
Sep 25 Added IMAP.  Moved GPS III-5 to July 2021.  Added GPS III-6.
Sep 17  Added Galaxy 31/32, Galaxy 33/34 in Q3 2022
Sep 8  Moved USSF-44 to Feb 2021.  Added Crew-3 Sep 2021
Sep 6  Moved SpX-21 to Nov 15
Sep 3  Added Satria in 2023
Aug 20  Added O3B mPOWER 7-9 and O3B mPOWER 10-11 flights
Aug 7  Added USSF-67 (details unknown) in Q4-2022
Aug 5  Added SES-18/SES-19 in 2022
Jul 21  Removed NationSat, I'm not sure if that's actually on contract
Jul 2  Moved IXPE to 2021-H2
May 19  Moved IXPE to 2021-05, SWOT to 2022-03
May 13  Moved KPLO to Dec. 2022 (slide at NAC HEO meeting)
May 7  Removed PPE, that does not seem to be a firm contract
May 1  Added PPE, Moved SXM-7 to early August
Mar 17  Added Intelsat 40e
Mar 5  Added Axiom Crewed Flight NET H2-2021
Feb 28  Added Psyche in 2022
Feb 18  Added Space Adventures Dragon flight
Feb 4  Added PACE
Jan 23 2020  Added Nilesat-301
December  Added rideshare payload table.  Added Capella, SkySat, Kepler rideshare payloads.  Removed Bigelow tourism flights.  Slipped dates for NationSat, GPS launches.
Nov 5  Moved SXM-7 to mid 2020, SXM-8 to Q3 2020
October 9  Added Intersputnik NationSat & co-passenger NET 2020.  Changed SAOCOM-1B from Vandenberg to Florida launch site.


All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!

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