Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5  (Read 785292 times)

Offline soltasto

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #760 on: 09/04/2020 12:39 pm »
Yes, the mail is:

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HAWTHORNE, Calif. – September 3, 2020. Accreditation is now open for SpaceX’s fifteenth Starlink mission, which will launch from Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The launch is targeted for no earlier than October.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #761 on: 09/06/2020 08:36 pm »
The SpaceX CRS and CC flight dates will need to be coordinated now that they have to contend for docking port availability.  If the plan is still to do direct handovers of the crew then SpX-22 will have to fly after Crew 2 arrives and Crew 1 leaves (unless Crew 1 gets delayed).  I would expect SpX-22 and SpX-23 to both shift a month (at least) from the dates currently shown on the SMSR schedule.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #762 on: 09/13/2020 10:23 am »
Nice 4k visualisation of Block 5 manifest launched so far

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1305069581451567106

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All Falcon 9 Block 5 launches in one render. Begins w/ the first launch in May 2018 and ends w/ recent in the beginning of September

@elonmusk @FelixSchlang @spaceXcentric @MarcusHouseGame @SpaceX #Falcon9

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #763 on: 09/17/2020 02:53 pm »
Looks like 3 4 sats in two launches for SpaceX

https://www.intelsat.com/newsroom/intelsat-finalizes-satellite-and-launch-vehicle-contracts-for-u-s-c-band-spectrum-transition/

McLean, VA – Intelsat, operator of the world’s largest integrated satellite and terrestrial network, today announced it has finalized all of its required contracts with satellite manufacturers and launch-vehicle providers to move forward and meet the accelerated C-band spectrum clearing timelines established by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) earlier this year.

The company has entered into a formal agreement with U.S.-based Maxar Technologies to build the final satellite required to support its C-band transition and maintain the FCC’s post-transition, “same or better” quality-of-service standard. Earlier this summer, Intelsat announced manufacturing contracts with Maxar and U.S.-based Northrop Grumman for six satellites.

Intelsat has contracted with SpaceX and Arianespace to launch these satellites on four separate launch vehicles, beginning in 2022. The diversity of manufacturers and launch-vehicle providers will lower transition program costs and help Intelsat mitigate potential launch-delay risks that could prevent the company from meeting the FCC’s accelerated clearing deadlines.

“We have made exceptional progress to date in executing our transition plan,” said Intelsat Chief Services Officer Mike DeMarco. “We’re moving forward at an accelerated pace to clear portions of the C-band spectrum and help cement America’s leadership in 5G.”

“We’re committed to maintaining this momentum, and we look forward to collaborating with our longstanding partners, Maxar, Northrop Grumman, SpaceX and Arianespace, on these important contracts to ensure we can continue to provide the high-quality, uninterrupted television, radio and data services that more than 100 million American homes and businesses have come to rely upon,” continued DeMarco.

On August 14, Intelsat filed its final C-band spectrum transition plan with the FCC. The comprehensive plan details the steps required for Intelsat to reconfigure its satellite and terrestrial infrastructure to enable 5G deployment in C-band. Intelsat will relocate its existing customer services to the upper part of the C-band to make way for 5G services in the lower portion of the band.

Intelsat was launched with President John F. Kennedy’s signing of the U.S. Satellite Communications Act into law in 1962. With administrative headquarters in McLean, Virginia, 24/7 satellite operations centers in California and Virginia, a 24/7 network operations center in Georgia, and staffed teleport locations in California, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, and Maryland, Intelsat employs more than 1,000 Americans across 11 states. More than 100 million U.S. households rely on Intelsat for their TV service, and Intelsat is the largest provider of satellite communications services to the U.S. military. Intelsat helps U.S. mobile operators of any size expand 4G and 5G broadband coverage to rural America.
« Last Edit: 09/17/2020 03:24 pm by gongora »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #764 on: 09/17/2020 03:00 pm »
Intelsat has contracted with SpaceX and Arianespace to launch these satellites on four separate launch vehicles

twitter.com/chrisg_nsf/status/1306607712533438470

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If I’m reading between the lines of the announcement correctly, that would be Ariane 5, Ariane 6, Falcon 9, and Falcon Heavy.

https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1306607977198092294

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Yes, I believe so. And Arianespace confirmed in a separate release that they will have two launches. Dual satellites on an Ariane 5 and a single satellite on Ariane 6.

So 2 satellites on the FH launch?
« Last Edit: 09/17/2020 03:01 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #765 on: 09/17/2020 03:03 pm »
We're not really sure yet exactly what these Intelsat launches involve.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #766 on: 09/17/2020 03:09 pm »
https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1306610454370766848

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Correction: It is seven total satellites. I misread the release. The manufacturer (Maxar) for one additional satellite was announced today.

Will be four satellites launched with SpaceX and three satellites with Arianespace.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #767 on: 09/17/2020 03:11 pm »
That would be Intelsat 31,32,33,34.  Not sure on the launch vehicles yet.

Offline abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #768 on: 09/17/2020 03:41 pm »
That would be Intelsat 31,32,33,34.  Not sure on the launch vehicles yet.
Interesting, so four satellites on two launches, one F9 and one FH?  A curious mix.

EDIT - where is the "reading between the lines" on the FH coming from, is there a separate PR from SpaceX?  Or is one of the contracted satellites too heavy for an F9?
« Last Edit: 09/17/2020 03:43 pm by abaddon »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #769 on: 09/17/2020 03:48 pm »
EDIT - where is the "reading between the lines" on the FH coming from, is there a separate PR from SpaceX?  Or is one of the contracted satellites too heavy for an F9?

It all hinges on how to interpret ‘four launch vehicles’. Is that simply four launches, or four types of rocket?

Edit to add: I initially read it as the latter, but now lean towards the former.
« Last Edit: 09/17/2020 03:51 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #770 on: 09/17/2020 06:18 pm »
twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1306658123680223233

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Here is how these Intelsat contracts break down, with 7 satellites launching on 4 rockets:

– 2 on Falcon 9 (Q3 '22)
– 2 on Falcon 9 (Q3 '22)
– 2 on Ariane 5 (Q4 '22)
– 1 on either Ariane 6 or Falcon 9 (Q3 '23)

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1306658362743021578

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Intelsat declined my request for comment on how the $390 million will be split between SpaceX and Arianespace, citing confidentiality agreements.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/spacex-and-arianespace-win-390-million-worth-of-intelsat-launches.html

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #771 on: 09/17/2020 07:13 pm »
From the CNBC article linked above:
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Intelsat will award whichever company doesn’t launch the seventh satellite with a contract for a separate later launch, the company told CNBC.

Offline abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #772 on: 09/17/2020 08:49 pm »
From the CNBC article linked above:
Quote
Intelsat will award whichever company doesn’t launch the seventh satellite with a contract for a separate later launch, the company told CNBC.
Sounds like Ariane 6 is the intended launcher for #7 and Falcon 9 is backup if Ariane 6 isn't ready in time, since they really can't afford to have these launches slip.  With the unselected company getting a different follow-on contract.

So $390 for four launches might look something like:
Ariane 5 - ~$130 million (but according to https://www.seradata.com/arianespace-lowers-ariane-5-launch-price-to-combat-spacex-in-asia-pacific-contest/ this supposedly should be more like ~$100 million)
Falcon 9x2 - ~$120 million?
Ariane 6 + Falcon 9 - ~$80 million + ~$60 million == ~$140 million?

I'm assuming that the total cost includes both the A6 and F9 launch for that 7th satellite, otherwise the numbers just don't work, and that makes sense that Intelsat is just buying a future ride from whoever isn't used for that bird.  The numbers also don't work if Ariane 5 is as low as the article suggests, but $130 million seems plausible.

Based on these guesstimates the split would be $180 million for 3 F9 launches and $210 million for the A5 and A6 launches combined.
« Last Edit: 09/17/2020 08:51 pm by abaddon »

Offline mandrewa

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #773 on: 09/18/2020 01:09 am »
From the CNBC article linked above:
Quote
Intelsat will award whichever company doesn’t launch the seventh satellite with a contract for a separate later launch, the company told CNBC.
Sounds like Ariane 6 is the intended launcher for #7 and Falcon 9 is backup if Ariane 6 isn't ready in time, since they really can't afford to have these launches slip.  With the unselected company getting a different follow-on contract.

So $390 for four launches might look something like:
Ariane 5 - ~$130 million (but according to https://www.seradata.com/arianespace-lowers-ariane-5-launch-price-to-combat-spacex-in-asia-pacific-contest/ this supposedly should be more like ~$100 million)
Falcon 9x2 - ~$120 million?
Ariane 6 + Falcon 9 - ~$80 million + ~$60 million == ~$140 million?

I'm assuming that the total cost includes both the A6 and F9 launch for that 7th satellite, otherwise the numbers just don't work, and that makes sense that Intelsat is just buying a future ride from whoever isn't used for that bird.  The numbers also don't work if Ariane 5 is as low as the article suggests, but $130 million seems plausible.

Based on these guesstimates the split would be $180 million for 3 F9 launches and $210 million for the A5 and A6 launches combined.

I thought we are talking about either five Falcon 9 launches and two Ariane 5 launches or four Falcon 9 launches and two Ariane 5 launches and one Ariane 6 launch.  Why not assume that the price for the Falcon 9 launches is what SpaceX is publicly asserting, $50 million apiece?  And since Ariane 6 is supposed to be cheaper than Ariane 5 and it is also intended to compete with SpaceX and since this will be one of Ariane 6's first flights, assume that Arianespace will charge $50 million for it also, regardless of what it actually costs.

So that would give $250 million for either five Falcon 9 launches or four Falcon 9 launches plus one Ariane 6 launch.

And that would leave two Ariane 5 launches at $70 million apiece.

The reason for Intelsat doing this, paying more for Ariane 5, would be similar to the logic of NASA supporting two launchers for manned space flight.  They want to have alternatives and redundancy.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #774 on: 09/18/2020 01:35 am »
From the CNBC article linked above:
Quote
Intelsat will award whichever company doesn’t launch the seventh satellite with a contract for a separate later launch, the company told CNBC.
Sounds like Ariane 6 is the intended launcher for #7 and Falcon 9 is backup if Ariane 6 isn't ready in time, since they really can't afford to have these launches slip.  With the unselected company getting a different follow-on contract.

So $390 for four launches might look something like:
Ariane 5 - ~$130 million (but according to https://www.seradata.com/arianespace-lowers-ariane-5-launch-price-to-combat-spacex-in-asia-pacific-contest/ this supposedly should be more like ~$100 million)
Falcon 9x2 - ~$120 million?
Ariane 6 + Falcon 9 - ~$80 million + ~$60 million == ~$140 million?

I'm assuming that the total cost includes both the A6 and F9 launch for that 7th satellite, otherwise the numbers just don't work, and that makes sense that Intelsat is just buying a future ride from whoever isn't used for that bird.  The numbers also don't work if Ariane 5 is as low as the article suggests, but $130 million seems plausible.

Based on these guesstimates the split would be $180 million for 3 F9 launches and $210 million for the A5 and A6 launches combined.

I thought we are talking about either five Falcon 9 launches and two Ariane 5 launches or four Falcon 9 launches and two Ariane 5 launches and one Ariane 6 launch.  Why not assume that the price for the Falcon 9 launches is what SpaceX is publicly asserting, $50 million apiece?  And since Ariane 6 is supposed to be cheaper than Ariane 5 and it is also intended to compete with SpaceX and since this will be one of Ariane 6's first flights, assume that Arianespace will charge $50 million for it also, regardless of what it actually costs.

So that would give $250 million for either five Falcon 9 launches or four Falcon 9 launches plus one Ariane 6 launch.

And that would leave two Ariane 5 launches at $70 million apiece.

The reason for Intelsat doing this, paying more for Ariane 5, would be similar to the logic of NASA supporting two launchers for manned space flight.  They want to have alternatives and redundancy.

It's 3 Falcon 9 launches, half? an Ariane 5 launch, and half an Ariane 64 launch.

Offline mandrewa

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #775 on: 09/18/2020 02:22 am »
It's 3 Falcon 9 launches, half? an Ariane 5 launch, and half an Ariane 64 launch.

See Michael Sheetz's tweet above. 

twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1306658123680223233

Quote:

Here is how these Intelsat contracts break down, with 7 satellites launching on 4 rockets:

– 2 on Falcon 9 (Q3 '22)
– 2 on Falcon 9 (Q3 '22)
– 2 on Ariane 5 (Q4 '22)
– 1 on either Ariane 6 or Falcon 9 (Q3 '23)

Edit: And then I realize I made a mistake. 

It's four rockets?  Then $390 million doesn't make any sense!!  Is that supposed to be Falcon Heavies?  If not is it seven launches like I assumed?  Or is the price of the satellites part of the $390 million?
« Last Edit: 09/18/2020 02:27 am by mandrewa »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #776 on: 09/18/2020 02:27 am »
It's 3 Falcon 9 launches, half? an Ariane 5 launch, and half an Ariane 64 launch.

See Michael Sheetz's tweet above. 

twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1306658123680223233

Quote:

Here is how these Intelsat contracts break down, with 7 satellites launching on 4 rockets:

– 2 on Falcon 9 (Q3 '22)
– 2 on Falcon 9 (Q3 '22)
– 2 on Ariane 5 (Q4 '22)
– 1 on either Ariane 6 or Falcon 9 (Q3 '23)

Yes.  2 confirmed F9.  1 confirmed Ariane 5, which may be two sats stacked in a single berth.  Either Ariane 6 or Falcon 9 will launch the seventh sat, and the other vehicle will get something else to launch.  Total: 3 F9, 1 A5, 1 A6

edit:  Further price speculation doesn't belong here.  There are threads for the launches now.
« Last Edit: 09/18/2020 02:28 am by gongora »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #777 on: 09/25/2020 03:37 pm »
https://twitter.com/free_space/status/1309515417703120897

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Air Force  clears @spacex to fly two upcoming GPS satellites on previously flown @spacex Falcon 9 rockets, saving $26m per flight, says Dr Walt Lauderale

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #778 on: 09/25/2020 04:49 pm »
More detail on USAF booster reuse:

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1309532875205861377

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After SpaceX successfully recovered the Falcon 9 rocket booster after the GPS III SV-03 launch in June, the U.S. Space Force's SMC amended its contract with the company to allow for recovery and reuse for the upcoming SV-04, SV-05, and SV-06 missions.

twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1309533181046124546

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SMC Falcon chief Dr. Walt Lauderdale: “I am proud of our partnership with SpaceX that allowed us to successfully negotiate contract modifications for the upcoming GPS III missions that will save taxpayers $52.7 million while maintaining our unprecedented record of success.”

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1309533573591060480

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SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell: "We appreciate the effort that the U.S. Space Force invested into the evaluation ... Our extensive experience with reuse has allowed SpaceX to continually upgrade the fleet and save significant precious tax dollars on these launches.”

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #779 on: 09/25/2020 08:47 pm »
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-for-imap-mission
Sept. 25, 2020
CONTRACT RELEASE C20-026

NASA Awards Launch Services Contract for IMAP Mission

NASA has selected Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) of Hawthorne, California, to provide launch services for the agency’s Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) mission, which includes four secondary payloads. IMAP will help researchers better understand the boundary of the heliosphere, a magnetic barrier surrounding our solar system. This region is where the constant flow of particles from our Sun, called the solar wind, collides with winds from other stars. This collision limits the amount of harmful cosmic radiation entering the heliosphere. IMAP will collect and map neutral particles that make it through, as well as investigate the fundamental processes of how particles are accelerated in space, from its vantage point orbiting the Sun at the Lagrange 1 point directly between the Sun and Earth.

The total cost for NASA to launch IMAP and the secondary payloads is approximately $109.4 million, which includes the launch service and other mission related costs.

The secondary payloads to be included with the launch of IMAP are: NASA’s Lunar Trailblazer mission, two additional NASA heliophysics missions of opportunity yet to be named, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Follow On-Lagrange 1 (SWFO-L1) mission.

The IMAP mission is targeted to launch in October 2024 on a Falcon 9 Full Thrust rocket from Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida.

NASA’s Launch Services Program at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida will manage the SpaceX launch service. The mission is led by Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland. NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, is responsible for the mission’s overall management, system engineering, integration, and testing and mission operations.

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