Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5  (Read 785694 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #720 on: 06/17/2020 12:18 pm »
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SPACEFLIGHT INC. SIGNS MULTI-LAUNCH AGREEMENT WITH SPACEX FOR RIDESHARE SERVICES
By Jodi Sorensen
JUNE 17, 2020

New MLA secures launch capacity, delivers end-to-end mission management services, and lowers costs for upcoming rideshare launches

SEATTLE – June 17, 2020 — Spaceflight Inc., the leading satellite rideshare and mission management provider, today announced it inked an agreement with SpaceX to secure rideshare capacity on multiple launches. This agreement between the two companies secures Spaceflight capacity to launch manifest payloads on several SpaceX launches through the end of 2021, providing launch schedule assurance to smallsat customers needing frequent, reliable, and cost-effective launches to Sun-synchronous orbit.

“By offering a variety of launch options, we can better meet our customer’s specific launch needs and offer increased launch flexibility,” said Curt Blake, president and CEO of Spaceflight. “This agreement with SpaceX will be particularly attractive to smallsat customers. SpaceX’s consistent launch schedule coupled with our deep expertise in mission management and integration services offers rideshare options with greater reliability. This agreement will allow us to package multiple payloads onto a single port to significantly reduce the cost per spacecraft for the end-customer.” 

According to a recent research study by Bryce Space and Technology, delays are commonplace throughout the launch industry. “Launch delays are inevitable and are typically out of the control of rideshare customers. In order to offer launch flexibility and minimize the impact of significant delays, it’s critical to have capacity on a wide range of launches to easily re-manifest customers from one launch to another,” said Devon Papandrew, vice president of business operations at Spaceflight. “Having this guaranteed capacity with SpaceX improves our customers’ odds of getting on orbit when they need to and helps us ensure flights are as full as possible, lowering costs for all and minimizing environmental impacts.”

The agreement builds on a long-standing relationship between the two companies. Spaceflight and SpaceX have partnered for several industry firsts, including SSO-A, the first dedicated rideshare mission with 64 smallsats aboard a Falcon 9 in December 2018. Additionally, Spaceflight and SpaceX teamed up on the first-ever rideshare mission to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit carrying a commercial lunar lander in February 2019. Spaceflight also announced today it will launch two rideshare payloads aboard SpaceX’s tenth Starlink mission, marking the first SpaceX Starlink mission that will be accompanied by Spaceflight rideshare payloads.     

“Spaceflight is one of the most experienced companies offering mission management and integration services for smallsat operators, and we are proud to offer their customers the best launch solution on the market,” says SpaceX Vice President of Commercial Sales Tom Ochinero. “Together, Spaceflight and SpaceX are providing small satellite operators access to space in the most reliable and cost-effective way possible.”

Spaceflight works with a large portfolio of launch vehicles, including Falcon 9, Antares, Electron, Vega, and PSLV, to provide a variety of launch options to its customers. The company has launched more than 270 satellites across nearly 30 rideshare missions. In 2019, the company successfully executed nine missions, the most it’s ever launched in one year, sending more than 50 payloads to space.

###

https://spaceflight.com/spaceflight-inc-signs-multi-launch-agreement-with-spacex-for-rideshare-services/

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #721 on: 06/22/2020 11:20 am »
One to watch: Virgin Galactic has a new Space Act Agreement (SAA) for an astronaut training programme for astronauts going to ISS.

This includes:

Also from the CNBC article:

Quote
The company [VG] also said that it would seek to buy seats on flights to the space station

More customers for SpaceX?

edit/gongora:  There is no indication of a firm contract here and any discussion should go in the appropriate Virgin thread.
« Last Edit: 06/22/2020 01:54 pm by gongora »

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #722 on: 06/24/2020 06:58 am »
Updated FPIP
- again - to celebrate known (almost known) launch dates for the next 3 launches.
- and again, it is an attempt to squeeze 8 7 starlink launches into 4 months - along with 6 non-starlink flights :)

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #723 on: 07/01/2020 09:33 pm »
I miss the good ol' days of 2018  ;)
We have, what, 17 more on the Manifest for the next half year?
Could put the pace near the previous peak.
« Last Edit: 07/01/2020 09:35 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #724 on: 07/02/2020 03:28 am »
I miss the good ol' days of 2018  ;)
We have, what, 17 more on the Manifest for the next half year?
Could put the pace near the previous peak.
There are ~8 non-Starlink launches that are highly likely. Most are Government payloads and already have tentative dates/months for their launch. Also Starlink will likely maintain the initiative at least of averaging 2 a month for 12 Starlink launches in 2H2020. That is a closer to 20 flights as long as no significant problems with pad, boosters, weather, and range occur. But since they always do the other non firm payloads for 2020 as well as a couple with tentative dates at EOY will most likely move into 2021 leaving around 18 for 2H2020.

But the real milestone is the 100 F9 flight mark which is likely to be reached before EOY 2020, possibly late Oct or Nov.

SpaceX wants to get Starlink into revenue generating operations sooner rather than later. Starlink V1.0 L14 will put SpaceX at opening of Beta revenue generating operations in approximately 2 1/2 months from now. With Starlink V1.0 L24 put SpaceX at opening of full revenue generating operations at about 5 months later or approximately 1Q2021. Unless SpaceX surprises us which has happened before and the average for Starlink launches in 2H2020 is >2/month.

SpaceX launch schedule will be packed and limited only by resources and weather. The resources are boosters, 2nd stages, pads, and range slots.

We shall see.

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #725 on: 07/02/2020 09:08 am »
My 5 cents on the Q3-2020 schedule.

Right now SpaceX has 5 boosters in the fleet; the fastest demonstrated turnaround for booster is 63 days.
If this turnaround close to the limit, then we would see just one launch in July (Starlink F10). The other cores would not be ready by the end of July.

However, we hear on launch of Anasis II planned for Jul 13. And there is a guess it will use B1058 core.
If this turns out true then the minimum turnaround is about 40-45 days.
In this case we could expect up to 4 launches in July and 3 more in August. (this is of course upper limit)

The attached graph illustrates the "booster flow".

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #726 on: 07/02/2020 04:29 pm »
My 5 cents on the Q3-2020 schedule.

Right now SpaceX has 5 boosters in the fleet; the fastest demonstrated turnaround for booster is 63 days.
If this turnaround close to the limit, then we would see just one launch in July (Starlink F10). The other cores would not be ready by the end of July.

However, we hear on launch of Anasis II planned for Jul 13. And there is a guess it will use B1058 core.
If this turns out true then the minimum turnaround is about 40-45 days.
In this case we could expect up to 4 launches in July and 3 more in August. (this is of course upper limit)

The attached graph illustrates the "booster flow".

Nice! See below an overview I maintain in L2, but I will share here once as this one contains only public information ;)
Note: All is heavy speculation and guestimation, including and especially possible future use of future new cores.

Offline paul2k19

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #727 on: 07/29/2020 02:19 pm »
"ESA also was able to acquire an additional mission to the International Space Station in 2021 for the first flight of ESA astronaut Matthias Maurer. Details of that mission are yet to be established, but for now Matthias is training as the backup for Thomas."
https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Thomas_Pesquet_first_ESA_astronaut_to_ride_a_Dragon_to_space
Does this meant that crew dragon will fly in USCV-3 too? Mathias is currently training on crew dragon, it is logical to assume that he will fly on dragon in september 2021 (if crew-2 will fly in march)... but what about starliner?

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #728 on: 07/29/2020 02:26 pm »
"ESA also was able to acquire an additional mission to the International Space Station in 2021 for the first flight of ESA astronaut Matthias Maurer. Details of that mission are yet to be established, but for now Matthias is training as the backup for Thomas."
https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Thomas_Pesquet_first_ESA_astronaut_to_ride_a_Dragon_to_space
Does this meant that crew dragon will fly in USCV-3 too? Mathias is currently training on crew dragon, it is logical to assume that he will fly on dragon in september 2021 (if crew-2 will fly in march)... but what about starliner?

There are other possibilities for that (Soyuz, Starliner, or even buying a seat on the Tom Cruise flight), doesn't have to be USCV-3.  Probably best discussed in the Flight Crew Assignments thread.
« Last Edit: 07/29/2020 02:30 pm by gongora »

Online abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #729 on: 08/03/2020 09:12 pm »
Quote
SAN FRANCISCO – Swarm Technologies is working with Exolaunch of Germany to send 24 SpaceBee satellites into orbit on the SpaceX Falcon 9 small satellite rideshare mission scheduled to launch in December.
[...]
Earlier this year, Exolaunch announced an agreement with SpaceX to send multiple small satellites into orbit on the December rideshare flight.
https://spacenews.com/swarm-launch-with-exolaunch/

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #730 on: 08/05/2020 02:00 pm »
twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1291010237554667520

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Luxembourg-based satellite telecommunications company SES announces launch contracts with both SpaceX and ULA:

Two C-band satellites launching in 2022 on an Atlas V rocket

Up to three C-band satellites launching in 2022 on two Falcon 9 rockets

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1291011024099971073

Quote
SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell:  "SES is one of SpaceX‘s most-valued partners, and we are proud of their continued trust in our capabilities to reliably deliver their satellites to orbit. We are excited to once again play a role in executing SES’s solutions.”
« Last Edit: 08/05/2020 02:05 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Online scr00chy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #731 on: 08/05/2020 02:14 pm »
This is should be either SES-17 + SES-18, or SES-19 + SES-20. Launch date Q3 2020. (Source)

Not sure about the third satellite.

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #732 on: 08/05/2020 02:50 pm »
This is should be either SES-17 + SES-18, or SES-19 + SES-20. Launch date Q3 2020. (Source)

Not sure about the third satellite.

https://www.ses.com/press-release/ses-selects-spacex-launch-new-c-band-satellites

Quote
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket will launch two C-band satellites built by Northrop Grumman as well as provide enhanced protection to rapidly launch a contingency satellite from Cape Canaveral, Florida in 2022 allowing SES to meet the Federal Communications Commission’s time-critical objective to roll out 5G services across the United States.

The 2 NG (GEOStar-3) satellites are SES-18 & 19, with 20 & 21 being the Boeing (702SP) pair flying on Atlas V. I guess the "contingency satellite" hasn't been ordered yet.

SES-17 is a separate Ka-band satellite to launch on Ariane 5.
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery. Current Priority: Chasing the Chinese Spaceflight Wonder Egg & A Certain Chinese Mars Rover

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #733 on: 08/05/2020 02:53 pm »
Oh yeah, sorry, I can't read apparently. :D

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #734 on: 08/06/2020 05:24 am »
I just counted through the 2021 launch manifest and discovered that it totals 24 without any Starlink launches. When did SpaceX amass this large list for 2021? Although I counted 7 possible VAFB that still is 17 for East coast. In order to get Starlink launched SpaceX is going to need Starship sooner rather than later. 1 Starship = 4 F9's launches for Starlink (If things work correctly). SpaceX will do good to get 20 launched this year out of 39A and 40. July was supposed to have 3 or 4 launches but ended with only 1. August hopefully has 3 but the closer to the end of August 39A will be occupied with activities associated with Crew-1. Possibly tying up 39A for the complete month of September.

But launching 41 times off of 39A + 40 in 2021? 17 +24 Starlink launches which includes at least Crew-2 and possibly a Crew-3 launch if Starliner doesn't make it for August. NRO and SF launches. It will not be a easy year. I expect a few will move into 2022 but not many because they had already slipped from 2020 into 2021 because of payload delays from COVID-19. COVID-19 is mimicking the problem and packed schedule that SpaceX had that ended with them doing 20+ launches the first time. There is quickly becoming a supply and demand problem more demand than supply of boosters and US to fly. With 24 Starlink added +17 East coast + 7 West coast that would be 48 launches manifested for 2021.
« Last Edit: 08/06/2020 05:26 am by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #735 on: 08/06/2020 09:50 am »
I just counted through the 2021 launch manifest and discovered that it totals 24 without any Starlink launches. When did SpaceX amass this large list for 2021?

...

Well, partially it's because several Falcon-9 launches slipped from 2020 to 2021.
E.g., in January there were 4 or 5 launches scheduled from VAFB "in H2 2020" - all but one are now in 2021.

Quote
In order to get Starlink launched SpaceX is going to need Starship sooner rather than later.

- if I understand correctly, they are going to make 14-16 starlink launches and then will be a pause.
They have to complete beta-testing and after that - they need time to implement - whatever they learned - to satellites and ground stations. After that they have to make another F9 salvo for starlinks to finish the first part of constellation (~1500 sats or whatever they decide enough). And again - after that there will be a pause in starlink launches.

It is my understanding that beyond that - any plans are very *blurry and shaky*...
So the bottom line (in my guess):
* hopefully they finish the first part (1500 sats) of constellation by the end of 2021.
* right now in is too early to "calculate" launch plans beyond 2021, especially for Starlink.

It is because we do not know two main parameters
1. we do not know structure and size of the next parts of constellation.
Experience shows that they change plans easily (and fast :)
2. we do not know structure and size of launchers fleet of SpaceX in 2022.

The options are
* F9 is still the *working horse* for Starlink;
* With a fair bit of luck - the extended fairing is ready and Starlink launches switch to FH with a hundred-plus sats per launch;
* With a massive amount of optimism - SS/SH are ready for Starlink launches.

for these three options it is going to be quite different story for Starlink deployment.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #736 on: 08/07/2020 09:38 pm »
Space Force awards National Security Space Launch Phase 2 launch service contracts to ULA, SpaceX
Quote
Concurrent with this announcement, the SMC Launch Enterprise, in collaboration with the NRO, will order the first three missions assigned under Phase 2. ... SpaceX has been assigned USSF-67, scheduled for launch in fourth quarter fiscal year 2022. Future launch services will be placed on subsequent Task Orders by mission and will be publicly announced upon issuance. Task orders for the launch service support and launch service contracts will be issued to ULA for $337 million and SpaceX for $316 million for launch services to meet fiscal year 2022 launch dates.

Details of the mission are currently unknown, including launch vehicle and orbit.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #737 on: 08/08/2020 08:40 pm »
Space Force awards National Security Space Launch Phase 2 launch service contracts to ULA, SpaceX
Quote
Concurrent with this announcement, the SMC Launch Enterprise, in collaboration with the NRO, will order the first three missions assigned under Phase 2. ... SpaceX has been assigned USSF-67, scheduled for launch in fourth quarter fiscal year 2022. Future launch services will be placed on subsequent Task Orders by mission and will be publicly announced upon issuance. Task orders for the launch service support and launch service contracts will be issued to ULA for $337 million and SpaceX for $316 million for launch services to meet fiscal year 2022 launch dates.

Details of the mission are currently unknown, including launch vehicle and orbit.
But for this dollar amount it sounds like an FH launch with possible first time vertical payload integration. One of the larger payloads that cannot be lifted by the ULA backup plan of an Atlas V.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #738 on: 08/08/2020 08:46 pm »
Space Force awards National Security Space Launch Phase 2 launch service contracts to ULA, SpaceX
Quote
Concurrent with this announcement, the SMC Launch Enterprise, in collaboration with the NRO, will order the first three missions assigned under Phase 2. ... SpaceX has been assigned USSF-67, scheduled for launch in fourth quarter fiscal year 2022. Future launch services will be placed on subsequent Task Orders by mission and will be publicly announced upon issuance. Task orders for the launch service support and launch service contracts will be issued to ULA for $337 million and SpaceX for $316 million for launch services to meet fiscal year 2022 launch dates.

Details of the mission are currently unknown, including launch vehicle and orbit.
But for this dollar amount it sounds like an FH launch with possible first time vertical payload integration. One of the larger payloads that cannot be lifted by the ULA backup plan of an Atlas V.

We have no idea what the dollar amount for that flight is.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #739 on: 08/08/2020 09:39 pm »
Space Force awards National Security Space Launch Phase 2 launch service contracts to ULA, SpaceX
Quote
Concurrent with this announcement, the SMC Launch Enterprise, in collaboration with the NRO, will order the first three missions assigned under Phase 2. ... SpaceX has been assigned USSF-67, scheduled for launch in fourth quarter fiscal year 2022. Future launch services will be placed on subsequent Task Orders by mission and will be publicly announced upon issuance. Task orders for the launch service support and launch service contracts will be issued to ULA for $337 million and SpaceX for $316 million for launch services to meet fiscal year 2022 launch dates.

Details of the mission are currently unknown, including launch vehicle and orbit.
But for this dollar amount it sounds like an FH launch with possible first time vertical payload integration. One of the larger payloads that cannot be lifted by the ULA backup plan of an Atlas V.

We have no idea what the dollar amount for that flight is.
Thanks I just saw your post in the SpaceX General thread.

Being the SF budgeted amount for these launches. The Budgeted amounts have to be large enough to cover any contracted LV that could be contracted to do the mission. This includes a possible DIVH or something else as expensive but also other unique services needed during processing and nothing to do with the size of LV. The number assigned to the payload project as USSF-67 means the payload project started a significant time ago and received a lower number than one of the other two awarded to ULA: USSF-106 (younger payload project) and USSF-51 (older payload project). The number is an association to the order in which the payload project was initiated not the order of launch, size, orbit, or type. An older number may also just be because the project was stalled by lack of budget and nothing to do with technical complexity. Trying to infer something based on the number will lead down a path of a lot of false assumptions.

So any actual SpaceX dollar amounts being awarded for this mission are at this time unknown. As well as the actual LV and even what coast it will be launching from.

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