Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5  (Read 783774 times)

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #700 on: 05/18/2020 03:44 pm »
Will this further prove that ALL polar orbits will be launched from Cape Canaveral?

I'm not sure what you mean by "further prove", since I haven't seen any proof of that being the case.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #701 on: 05/19/2020 12:37 am »
Will this further prove that ALL polar orbits will be launched from Cape Canaveral?

I'm not sure what you mean by "further prove", since I haven't seen any proof of that being the case.

Exactly
It's like the unsupported statement that all future US launches will be in fully reusable, stainless steel, mega-rockets
(but only if Musk makes an even greater advance than developing partly reusable rockets and Starship works out to be as cost efficient as he hopes.) 

Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
IF the SAOCOM-1B launch works well, then they MIGHT switch many polar launches to Florida.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Phillipsturtles

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #702 on: 06/02/2020 03:34 am »
I just found it interesting that we've made it to June without SpaceX launching something for a commercial customer and something passed LEO. Everything so far has been for NASA or Starlink. Big change compared to previous years!

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #703 on: 06/02/2020 08:44 am »
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/weltall/spacex-chefingenieur-zum-stat-des-crew-dragon-wilde-party-kommt-noch-a-998ff592-1071-44d5-9972-ff2b73ec8fb6

From an article in Spiegel:
SPIEGEL: Die erste Raketenstufe ist kurz nach dem Start auf einem ferngesteuerten Schiff gelandet. Was passiert jetzt mit ihr?

Königsmann: Sie wird inspiziert und startet dann wieder, nach aktueller Planung mit einem internationalen Satelliten.

So 1058-2 will be launching an international satellite... ;)

Not too surprising, but maybe anyone here can figure out which one that will/must be?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #704 on: 06/02/2020 01:32 pm »
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/weltall/spacex-chefingenieur-zum-stat-des-crew-dragon-wilde-party-kommt-noch-a-998ff592-1071-44d5-9972-ff2b73ec8fb6

From an article in Spiegel:
SPIEGEL: Die erste Raketenstufe ist kurz nach dem Start auf einem ferngesteuerten Schiff gelandet. Was passiert jetzt mit ihr?

Königsmann: Sie wird inspiziert und startet dann wieder, nach aktueller Planung mit einem internationalen Satelliten.

So 1058-2 will be launching an international satellite... ;)

Not too surprising, but maybe anyone here can figure out which one that will/must be?

The timing would be good for the Korean satellite, ANASIS II.
edit: suppose it could also be SAOCOM-1B
« Last Edit: 06/02/2020 01:40 pm by gongora »

Online scr00chy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #705 on: 06/02/2020 01:40 pm »
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/weltall/spacex-chefingenieur-zum-stat-des-crew-dragon-wilde-party-kommt-noch-a-998ff592-1071-44d5-9972-ff2b73ec8fb6

From an article in Spiegel:
SPIEGEL: Die erste Raketenstufe ist kurz nach dem Start auf einem ferngesteuerten Schiff gelandet. Was passiert jetzt mit ihr?

Königsmann: Sie wird inspiziert und startet dann wieder, nach aktueller Planung mit einem internationalen Satelliten.

So 1058-2 will be launching an international satellite... ;)

Not too surprising, but maybe anyone here can figure out which one that will/must be?

The timing would be good for the Korean satellite, ANASIS II.
Also Turksat 5A, potentially.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #706 on: 06/04/2020 07:52 am »
Ben Cooper is saying two more Starlink launches before GPS-III

Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the ninth batch of Starlink internet satellites from pad 40 on mid June TBA, likely around 9-10pm EDT. Then, a Falcon 9 from pad 39A will launch the tenth Starlink batch on June TBA. And a Falcon 9 is slated to launch the next GPS III satellite for the U.S. Air Force from pad 40 on June 30 at 3:55pm EDT. The launch window stretches 15 minutes to 4:10pm EDT.

http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html


Offline ZachF

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #707 on: 06/05/2020 01:27 am »
Haven't checked this in a few months... wow 2021 looks busy!  :o
artist, so take opinions expressed above with a well-rendered grain of salt...
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #708 on: 06/05/2020 08:28 pm »
https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1268997874559225856

Quote
SpaceX is targeting June 24 for the tenth Starlink mission, per SpaceNews.

As I noted yesterday, the ninth Starlink mission is scheduled for June 12/13. SpaceX also has a GPS launch scheduled scheduled for June 30.

Offline Orbiter

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #709 on: 06/05/2020 08:36 pm »
Sounds like Starlink-10 will be an LC-39A launch then.
Astronomer & launch photographer

Offline Elthiryel

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #710 on: 06/05/2020 08:43 pm »
Ben Cooper has it assigned to LC-39A on his website for several days now, but yeah, it seems to be a confirmation.
GO for launch, GO for age of reflight

Offline cppetrie

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #711 on: 06/05/2020 08:47 pm »
Assuming no weather or other delays that’ll be 5 launches in a span of 31 days. Wow!

Offline CJ

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #712 on: 06/06/2020 01:37 am »
Assuming no weather or other delays that’ll be 5 launches in a span of 31 days. Wow!

I'm so old I can remember when people were calling the notion of SpaceX achieving a launch cadence of once a month, preposterous. :)

Seriously though, I only just noticed today that the next month or so look to be so incredibly busy. Astounding.

I suspect, though, that June will continue to behave like June, weatherwise, which will likely cause a few slips.


Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #713 on: 06/10/2020 07:18 am »
Updated FPIP
- just to celebrate the situation where we know launch dates for the next 3 (THREE) launches in a row.
- also it is an attempt to squeeze 8 starlink launches into 4 months :)

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #714 on: 06/10/2020 07:33 am »
Updated FPIP
- just to celebrate the situation where we know launch dates for the next 3 (THREE) launches in a row.
- also it is an attempt to squeeze 8 starlink launches into 4 months :)
Thanks!
It makes it even more visible what I have been saying for a while in L2, but I can say here as well as it can be derived publicly:
There are no cores available for so many launches in July/August.
The only way I can see this happening is reactivating and conversion of FH side cores 1052 and 1053.
Or a very bold move into super rapid turnaround in the range of weeks instead of months (as it is right now: >68 days)
Interesting times.

Offline Arb

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #715 on: 06/10/2020 11:25 am »
...
There are no cores available for so many launches in July/August.
The only way I can see this happening is reactivating and conversion of FH side cores 1052 and 1053.
Or a very bold move into super rapid turnaround in the range of weeks instead of months (as it is right now: >68 days)
Interesting times.
Someone from SpaceX (Shotwell if memory serves) said in a recent interview that refurbishment costs ~$1 million and takes "weeks".  So, clearly, time-between-uses and refurbishment-time are not the same thing (which is kind of obvious if you think about it). We'll know soon enough.
« Last Edit: 06/10/2020 11:26 am by Arb »

Online scr00chy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #716 on: 06/10/2020 11:50 am »
...
There are no cores available for so many launches in July/August.
The only way I can see this happening is reactivating and conversion of FH side cores 1052 and 1053.
Or a very bold move into super rapid turnaround in the range of weeks instead of months (as it is right now: >68 days)
Interesting times.
Someone from SpaceX (Shotwell if memory serves) said in a recent interview that refurbishment costs ~$1 million and takes "weeks".  So, clearly, time-between-uses and refurbishment-time are not the same thing (which is kind of obvious if you think about it). We'll know soon enough.
Elon said two weeks ago that refurbishment only costs 250 thousand dollars (and he might have included fairing refurbishment).

Offline MKremer

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #717 on: 06/10/2020 01:06 pm »
I wonder how many 2nd stages and Merlin Vacuums they have in reserve?

Offline Nomadd

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #718 on: 06/10/2020 02:19 pm »
...
There are no cores available for so many launches in July/August.
The only way I can see this happening is reactivating and conversion of FH side cores 1052 and 1053.
Or a very bold move into super rapid turnaround in the range of weeks instead of months (as it is right now: >68 days)
Interesting times.
Someone from SpaceX (Shotwell if memory serves) said in a recent interview that refurbishment costs ~$1 million and takes "weeks".  So, clearly, time-between-uses and refurbishment-time are not the same thing (which is kind of obvious if you think about it). We'll know soon enough.
Elon said two weeks ago that refurbishment only costs 250 thousand dollars (and he might have included fairing refurbishment).
Recovery costs a lot more than most people realize.
Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who couldn't hear the music.

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #719 on: 06/11/2020 03:19 pm »
On launch tempo and cores available
With May-June launches done/scheduled:
Dragon-DM2 ... May 30, 2020 ... B1058
Starlink Flt.8 ... Jun 04, 2020 ... B1049.5
Starlink Flt.9 ... Jun 12, 2020 ... B1059.3
Starlink Flt.10 ... Jun 24, 2020 ... B1051.5
GPS III SV03 ... Jun 30, 2020 ... B1060

- SpaceX will have all available boosters used by beginning of July.
So far they have demonstrated fastest turnaround of 63 days (B1056.3 - .4)
Also, they have scheduled turnaround of 62 days fo B1051.4 - .5

However, we hear that Anasis II is scheduled for launch "Early July".
There are only two options
- either they use one of FH side boosters for this launch;
- or they are about to show twice shorter turnaround like 35 days - for B1058.

"Interesting times" - that's true!

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