Red Dragon is arguably easier than Crew Dragon (both v2) because it doesn't need to be human rated and have life support.
Jeff Foust reported in this article that SpaceX has completed 8 milestones so far.
Launch abort test October 2017Uncrewed orbital test flight of the spacecraft in December 2017A crewed flight scheduled for February 2018
And as expected the uncrewed mission of Dragon 2 to the ISS has shifted some five months to the right and is now thoroughly in 2017. There will be no Dragon 2 launching this year. Compared to what was reported last November the crewed demo mission shifted no less than eight months to the right, to august 2017.The interval between the unmanned flight and the in-flight abort test is IMO unrealistically tight (just two months), so I expect the in-flight abort test to shift to the right. Which means the crewed demo mission will also shift to the right (again). I fully expect for it to eventually shift into 2018.I also expect similar shifts to happen for CST-100. IMO their first crewed mission will also go into 2018.
Quote from: wannamoonbase on 05/13/2016 01:51 amLaunch abort test October 2017Uncrewed orbital test flight of the spacecraft in December 2017A crewed flight scheduled for February 2018To be clear, those are the Boeing Starliner dates quoted from the March NAC slide per the article. The article also refers to that same March NAC slide still having the SpaceX dates with the uncrewed test flight in Dec 2016. Apparently the CCP Major Partners Milestone, also from March, may be the most updated with SpaceX uncrewed test flight of May 2017 as woods170 noted.Quote from: woods170 on 04/01/2016 07:18 amAnd as expected the uncrewed mission of Dragon 2 to the ISS has shifted some five months to the right and is now thoroughly in 2017. There will be no Dragon 2 launching this year. Compared to what was reported last November the crewed demo mission shifted no less than eight months to the right, to august 2017.The interval between the unmanned flight and the in-flight abort test is IMO unrealistically tight (just two months), so I expect the in-flight abort test to shift to the right. Which means the crewed demo mission will also shift to the right (again). I fully expect for it to eventually shift into 2018.I also expect similar shifts to happen for CST-100. IMO their first crewed mission will also go into 2018. Looking back on the milestone dates I've seen, it seems that 2 months has consistently been the interval between either uncrewed and crewed for Boeing and uncrewed, in flight abort (once they decided to use the flight test capsule), and crewed for SpaceX. I think these obviously assume all goes well and are spaced for the requisite processing time between each. I think its a fair, if tight, interval if all goes well. However, even if things go well, I could imagine outside factors could also cause a delay.
Jeff Foust reported in this article that SpaceX has completed 8 milestones so far.Looks like we only have 6 completed on the list in the first post. I wonder what other 2 have been completed?
There is only one constant in manned spaceflight: delay, delay, delay.
If you look at things historically the risk to schedule increase the closer you get to the end date. This is because the builtin cushions have less capability to absorb unforeseen events affecting task completions.
What a beautiful way of saying that towards the end, the ability of people to lie to themselves is overcome by their desire not to be the last ones saying they are still on time...
Quote from: meekGee on 05/15/2016 03:17 amWhat a beautiful way of saying that towards the end, the ability of people to lie to themselves is overcome by their desire not to be the last ones saying they are still on time...Lying to yourself is how people motivate themselves to get stuff done a lot of the time. Heck, set a realistic end target for somebody within a certain amount of time, and people will instinctively plop all the real hard work right at the end of that timeframe, because work is hard. The same applies to organisations along with individuals.It's always more productive to demand the extreme from yourself (which you won't fulfil) rather than gun for a conservative realism and then end up stretching those timeframes out as well.
Quote from: The Amazing Catstronaut on 05/15/2016 09:43 amQuote from: meekGee on 05/15/2016 03:17 amWhat a beautiful way of saying that towards the end, the ability of people to lie to themselves is overcome by their desire not to be the last ones saying they are still on time...Lying to yourself is how people motivate themselves to get stuff done a lot of the time. Heck, set a realistic end target for somebody within a certain amount of time, and people will instinctively plop all the real hard work right at the end of that timeframe, because work is hard. The same applies to organisations along with individuals.It's always more productive to demand the extreme from yourself (which you won't fulfil) rather than gun for a conservative realism and then end up stretching those timeframes out as well.The way I've seen it put best is to make your long-term goals grand, ambitious, and aspirational, make your short-term goals realistic and practical, but always a step in the direction of the grand long-term goals.
Yeah, right. Just like FH.
Quote from: Jim on 05/15/2016 06:53 pmYeah, right. Just like FH.I have been wondering whether SpaceX deliberately held back FH development while they were working out the kinks in F9 and especially F9 reuse. It would make sense to me to do that, since FH is largely based on F9.Also, it seems like the payload increases in F9 have made FH less urgently needed compared to F9 1.0.
I think similar processes occur within large companies even without government intervention...