SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-1 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION

[Nomadd]

 Maybe it really is SPAM. That stuff would probably last for four or five missions.

[tigerade]

http://www.nasa.gov/connect/hangout.html

Google Hangout with Elon Musk and Charlie Bolden today at 1PM EDT.  I'll listen in and see if there is anything interesting.

[tigerade]

Question on Mars exploration:
Bolden: Humans make the real discoveries, not the robots. 
Elon:  Mars colonization the goal.

Changes to CRS-1 Dragon?
Elon: Minor changes on software side from COTS2 Dragon.  addressed LIDAR issue.  improved thermal imagery software

Mining the Moon and Mars?
Elon: Not a huge proponent for mining Moon or Mars, hugely expensive even if costs are brought down.  Would make more since if there was already a base on Mars
Bolden:  Focus should be on enhancing survivability on Mars... producing food, concrete, etc.  so we don't have to lift tons from earth.  finding resources are more important

Dragon human flights?
Elon: Orbital flight with people on board - about 3 years.  year of margin... 3-4 years.  4 years for manned ISS mission

Dragon for Space tourism?
Elon: Yeah.  People buy seats on Soyuz.  Would be great to have American option, revenue for here.  Love to do it.  Possibly offer at lower cost.  Possibility of sending people to private space station for Bigelow.
Bolden:  NASA role is not to develop capability, but to facilitate success.  Encouraging to see SpX work with Bigelow, expand commercial sector.  Most SpaceX manifest flights are non-NASA.  NASA not primary source of income for SpaceX.

New propulsion such as solar?
Bolden:  Essential for interplanetary travel, need to revolutionize.  Can't be done on chemical.  Got to make some progress.
Elon:  Right.  Chemical good for getting to orbit, but for interplanetary travel, ion drives can be quite helpful.  can't use to get off planet, but can be used when in space.

SpaceX participating EML2 Lunar Farside Gateway?
Bolden:  Daily conversation among our people with SpaceX.  Do talk about collaboration all the time, focused on LEO right now before BEO, but BEO is an option in the future.
Elon:  Completely agree.  Gotta make sure can do routine LEO flights.  Efficiently, good foundation before BEO.  Are conversations about Dragon going to other parts of solar system.  Working to leverage investment.  Right now focused on ISS.

When are you going into space Elon?
Bolden:  Great for Elon and me to take a trip to ISS.  (smiles and laughs)
Elon: Got to resist temptation to be CEO and Test Pilot, but I really want to go.  (smiling)

Anything fun or special on Dragon?
Elon:  No cheese, haha.
Bolden:  23 student experiments.  Making an obligation to students, that's really special.

How long to assemble Falon 9?
Elon:  Takes about a year or so.  12-18 months now.  Aim to 4-6 launches in 2013.  need to accelerate.  Want spaceflight to be routine.


Weather favorable for sunday launch?
Elon:  60% likely.  40% not.  Might have to scrub for weather.

How long does docking take?
Elon:  Several hours.  Working to tighten timeline in the future.
Bolden:  Progress had same day rendezvous.  Want that for commercial flights.  Biological samples, quicker the better.  Same day is ideal.

SpaceX surpise NASA?
Bolden:  We expected SpaceX to be revolutionary.  Streamlining processes, costs, secret is big numbers.  More rapidly we can get to point where can reliably to space.

Dragon and Orion are small.  How can they live in it for months?
Elon:  Wouldn't ask people to live in just Dragon to go to Mars.  Much bigger spacecraft needed.

How cheap can space become?
Elon:  Hope so.  Energy requirements greater, 1000 times more expensive to go to space than air.  Hope to bring it down to 10 times.  Would require big improvements, but it needs to happen.  Fully reusable is key.

Most interesting new technologies?
Elon: Have to have re-usability.  Pivotal breakthrough that's needed.   Needs to make rockets light.  Really efficient engines needed.  Without reusable, space will always be constrained.
Bolden:  Game changing communication technologies, LBAND communications, etc.  Becoming more reliant on composites.  Improving processes for strength of vehicle.

Elon, how do you balance both businesses for a normal life?
Elon:  I don't have a normal life.  Low amount of time at Solar City, most time at SpaceX and Tesla, spending time with kids.

Elon:  Very exciting night on Sunday.  kinda nervous, what if we miss?  I think we've done the best we can.  I hope people enjoy watching.

[yg1968]

Dragon for Space tourism?
Elon: Yeah.  People buy seats on Soyuz.  Would be great to have American option, revenue for here.  Love to do it.  Possibly offer at lower cost.  Possibility of sending people to private space station for Bigelow.
Bolden:  NASA role is not to develop capability, but to facilitate success.  Encouraging to see SpX work with Bigelow, expand commercial sector.  Most SpaceX manifest flights are non-NASA.  NASA not primary source of income for SpaceX.

What is interesting about that response is that it shows that NASA likely does not want spaceflight participants to go the ISS. They would prefer that space tourists go to a Bigelow station. There is some logic in NASA refusing to compete with Bigelow. 

[Mader Levap]

Dragon human flights?
Elon: Orbital flight with people on board - about 3 years.  year of margin... 3-4 years.  4 years for manned ISS mission
How long to assemble Falon 9?
Elon:  Takes about a year or so.  12-18 months now.  Aim to 4-6 launches in 2013.  need to accelerate.  Want spaceflight to be routine.

What dark sorcery is this? This sound actually realistic. Noted toned down count from 8 promised by Gwynne.

[Robotbeat]

Dragon human flights?
Elon: Orbital flight with people on board - about 3 years.  year of margin... 3-4 years.  4 years for manned ISS mission
How long to assemble Falon 9?
Elon:  Takes about a year or so.  12-18 months now.  Aim to 4-6 launches in 2013.  need to accelerate.  Want spaceflight to be routine.

What dark sorcery is this? This sound actually realistic. Noted toned down count from 8 promised by Gwynne.

Elon is learning.

[Prober]

"Dragon human flights?
Elon: Orbital flight with people on board - about 3 years.  year of margin... 3-4 years.  4 years for manned ISS mission"

same fluff answer (sorry amazing peoples) Elon has been giving for the last 1-2 years.....like time stopped.

The real question should have been asked

Elon is 2015 still on schedule?

[BobCarver]

Why is there such concern about schedules? Do you have any experience in project management? I do and I know executives always quote unrealistic target dates. I asked one of them and he told me that he knows the dates he had given the ultimate users of the project were not possible, but his rationale was that if you were to give honest dates, the project might be defunded. Basically, this plays to the sentiment of the listener to keep support.

It's better to sin and be forgiven than never to have sinned at all. 

[GalacticIntruder]

How long to assemble Falon 9?
Elon:  Takes about a year or so.  12-18 months now.  Aim to 4-6 launches in 2013.  need to accelerate.  Want spaceflight to be routine.

Current manifest for F9 is 6 for 2013, 7 if no more 2012 flights. And 10 for 2014.

[Robotbeat]

Dragon human flights?
Elon: Orbital flight with people on board - about 3 years.  year of margin... 3-4 years.  4 years for manned ISS mission
How long to assemble Falon 9?
Elon:  Takes about a year or so.  12-18 months now.  Aim to 4-6 launches in 2013.  need to accelerate.  Want spaceflight to be routine.

What dark sorcery is this? This sound actually realistic. Noted toned down count from 8 promised by Gwynne.

4 in 2013 sounds pretty realistic. Even if they can't improve upon their current max of 2 launches per year per pad, they'll have two pads in 2013. And they really SHOULD be able to improve on just 2 launches per year per pad.

[Prober]

Why is there such concern about schedules? Do you have any experience in project management? I do and I know executives always quote unrealistic target dates. I asked one of them and he told me that he knows the dates he had given the ultimate users of the project were not possible, but his rationale was that if you were to give honest dates, the project might be defunded. Basically, this plays to the sentiment of the listener to keep support.

It's better to sin and be forgiven than never to have sinned at all. 

Note that some 80% of this program is being paid for by the US taxpayer.

Don’t you feel the truth should be explained to those paying for the R&D?   

[Robotbeat]

Why is there such concern about schedules? Do you have any experience in project management? I do and I know executives always quote unrealistic target dates. I asked one of them and he told me that he knows the dates he had given the ultimate users of the project were not possible, but his rationale was that if you were to give honest dates, the project might be defunded. Basically, this plays to the sentiment of the listener to keep support.

It's better to sin and be forgiven than never to have sinned at all. 

Note that some 80% of this program is being paid for by the US taxpayer.

Don’t you feel the truth should be explained to those paying for the R&D?   

Since when does NASA do any better? Just saying...

(That said, I sure hope both SpaceX and NASA start being more realistic in their estimates.)

[yg1968]

The 2015 commercial crew date was assuming optimal funding which isn't there. Nobody has been lied to. 

[BobCarver]

In this case I think that they are not exaggerating the timeline. It's just that in the real world, delays happen. Look at Tesla for example. They said they would produce 500 vehicles in Q3. They had a supplier of a part whose factory was flooded be unable to deliver enough parts to meet the goal and that caused them to miss the target by 111 vehicles.

Stuff happens.

[PahTo]

Thanks to Fuji for posting about the power issues with the robotics workstation in the the Exp 33 thread.  Has this been satisfactorily resolved to move forward with the planned launch Sunday evening?

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27801.30

[Space Pete]

Thanks to Fuji for posting about the power issues with the robotics workstation in the the Exp 33 thread.  Has this been satisfactorily resolved to move forward with the planned launch Sunday evening?

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27801.30

Yes - the newly installed jumper will maintain power to the Lab RWS (Robotic Work Station) even if an RPCM (Remote Power Control Module) trips.

So ISS looks go for launch right now.

One thing to keep an eye on is the two SIGIs (Space Integrated GPS/INS), since both of those being operational is a LCC (Launch Commit Criteria) for a Dragon launch, and one of the SIGIs failed close to the previous Dragon launch. Dragon uses the SIGIs for RGPS (Relative GPS) navigation with the ISS.

You can keep track of the two SIGI's status on ISSLive! here, where they are noted as GPS-1 and GPS-2. Their nominal state is "DOING POSIT".
http://spacestationlive.jsc.nasa.gov/displays/adcoDisplay4.html

[Comga]

Dragon human flights?
Elon: Orbital flight with people on board - about 3 years.  year of margin... 3-4 years.  4 years for manned ISS mission
How long to assemble Falon 9?
Elon:  Takes about a year or so.  12-18 months now.  Aim to 4-6 launches in 2013.  need to accelerate.  Want spaceflight to be routine.

What dark sorcery is this? This sound actually realistic. Noted toned down count from 8 promised by Gwynne.

4 in 2013 sounds pretty realistic. Even if they can't improve upon their current max of 2 launches per year per pad, they'll have two pads in 2013. And they really SHOULD be able to improve on just 2 launches per year per pad.

We are going to have poll on 2013 later this year much like this one for 2012.  This is not the place to start expressing our opinions.

[Robotbeat]

Dragon human flights?
Elon: Orbital flight with people on board - about 3 years.  year of margin... 3-4 years.  4 years for manned ISS mission
How long to assemble Falon 9?
Elon:  Takes about a year or so.  12-18 months now.  Aim to 4-6 launches in 2013.  need to accelerate.  Want spaceflight to be routine.

What dark sorcery is this? This sound actually realistic. Noted toned down count from 8 promised by Gwynne.

4 in 2013 sounds pretty realistic. Even if they can't improve upon their current max of 2 launches per year per pad, they'll have two pads in 2013. And they really SHOULD be able to improve on just 2 launches per year per pad.

We are going to have poll on 2013 later this year much like this one for 2012.  This is not the place to start expressing our opinions.

It's a discussion thread, so it's valid enough (considering we're hearing new expectations from SpaceX's CTO), as long as it doesn't drag on too much (pun not intended...).

[sdsds]

The SpaceX press kit for the mission makes zero mention of orbcomm and no mention of a second stage re-ignition. Was this an oversight, are they intentionally down-playing this aspect of the flight, or just keeping things simple for the press?

[tigerade]

The SpaceX press kit for the mission makes zero mention of orbcomm and no mention of a second stage re-ignition. Was this an oversight, are they intentionally down-playing this aspect of the flight, or just keeping things simple for the press?

This is explained in L2, but is not public.