I would think a determinant factor is whether they move straight into v1.2 for RTF or swap payloads for the final v1.1 that was to launch Jason-3 by moving CRS-8 over to that final v1.1 for September's RTF.
RTF Target is NET End of September.
So...which payload wants to step up and go first? Place your bets.
Quote from: Chris Bergin on 07/30/2015 04:36 pmRTF Target is NET End of September. This made my jaw drop. I'd assumed, because of the "months" comment Musk made, plus the need to replace ALL the struts in both stages of existing F9's as well as spec, create, and test the new struts (which has to be done before installation, of course), that we were looking at November/December at best. Looks like I was wrong. And I'm delighted to be wrong!
Quote from: Kabloona on 07/30/2015 05:53 pmSo...which payload wants to step up and go first? Place your bets.CRS seems like the most likely to me. Supplies for ISS aren't usually very expensive compared to a GEO comsat, and are mostly pretty easy to replace if something goes wrong. Also, NASA is probably eager to get another cargo supplier back into business, so they're probably happy to help.
NET is No Earlier Than. Could be 2027 and that NET is fine. If they launch RTF in the middle of September, then that's where the NET is badly wrong.
And if SpaceX does implement the software that lets the Dragon Cargo deploy parachutes after a launcher failure, then they should have a little more confidence.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 07/30/2015 11:54 pmAnd if SpaceX does implement the software that lets the Dragon Cargo deploy parachutes after a launcher failure, then they should have a little more confidence.Does not matter. If SpaceX fails twice in row, they are in deep bovine manure.
Quote from: sghill on 07/30/2015 06:09 pmQuote from: Kabloona on 07/30/2015 05:53 pmSo...which payload wants to step up and go first? Place your bets.Carnegie Mellon and Astrobotic Technology will take advantage of cut-rate pricing on the RTF flight and their current lead in flight-article preparations to stun the world with a moon shot launch in early October in order to claim the entirety of the $20 million Google Lunar X-Prize...Take THAT Jade Rabbit!!!Yeah no. We're not even close.
Quote from: Kabloona on 07/30/2015 05:53 pmSo...which payload wants to step up and go first? Place your bets.Carnegie Mellon and Astrobotic Technology will take advantage of cut-rate pricing on the RTF flight and their current lead in flight-article preparations to stun the world with a moon shot launch in early October in order to claim the entirety of the $20 million Google Lunar X-Prize...Take THAT Jade Rabbit!!!
...is there a scenario where they'd just mothball the last 1.1?